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No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs: Is TCU second-best in Big 12?

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Beginning in September and running up until November 6th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2018-2019 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

Every day at Noon ET, we will be releasing an in-depth preview of one member of our Preseason Top 25.

Today we dive into No. 15 TCU.


Jamie Dixon, who reached 11 NCAA tournaments in 13 seasons as Pittsburgh’s head coach, was run out of town after the 2015-16 season because he wasn’t good enough.

That’s what happens when you take a historically-downtrodden basketball program and win big for a few seasons. Missing two NCAA tournaments in a five season stretch becomes a fireable offense.

Since Pitt ran off Dixon, the Panthers have had their come-to-Jesus moment, ending the Kevin Stallings-era after just two years, one of which included a winless ACC season. Dixon, on the other hand, has landed in Fort Worth and turned TCU into a top 25 program.

Seriously.

The Horned Frogs won the NIT in Dixon’s first season at the helm, winning 24 games and finding themselves in the midst of the bubble picture in February before a seven-game losing streak to close the regular season ended those dreams. This past season, TCU was even better, as a four-game winning streak in late-February propelled Dixon to his first tournament appearance with his alma mater and TCU’s first trip to the Big Dance in 20 years.

To get an idea of the significance of what’s happening with this team right now, think about this: Since 1968, TCU has been to the NCAA tournament just four times (1971, 1987, 1998 and 2018). The last time that they reached the dance in back-to-back seasons was in 1952 and 1953. I, frankly, never thought I would see a time where TCU was the best team and, arguably, the healthiest basketball program in the state of Texas, but that’s where we are right now.

Because despite losing two starters from last year’s team, TCU looks like they should be better this year.

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TCU WILL BE GOOD BECAUSE …

They are going to be able to score, I have little doubt of that.

Last season, despite missing Jaylen Fisher for half of the year, the Horned Frogs finished as the No. 9 team in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and I think they are going to be better on that end of the floor this season.

For starters, they are going to be one of the growing number of programs that will be playing with two point guards this season, as Fisher will be joined in the backcourt by Alex Robinson. Those two compliment each other well. Robinson is a slick passer that really excels in ball-screens while Fisher is a bigger, more physical athlete that has shot 39.9 percent from three on more than 200 attempts through his first two seasons. Both players notched assist rates above 30 last year, which is a very good number; to put that into context, they both averaged more than 5.4 assists.

I’d hesitate to call TCU the best backcourt in the Big 12 this season, but they are never going to be at a disadvantage there this season.

And that’s before you factor in Desmond Bane and Kouat Noi. Bane is the best shooter in the program, making 46.1 percent of this triples last season while averaging 12.3 points. He’ll be asked to play something of a bigger role this year, as replacing Kenrich Williams is not going to be an easy thing to do, but I expect him to be up to the task. Noi is the x-factor here. As a freshman, he was an impact scorer off the bench, averaging 10.2 points in just over 22 minutes a night. He’s 6-foot-7 with some length, and he shot 43.4 percent from distance while attempting the most threes of anyone on the roster.

With those two point guards and those two shooters on the floor, TCU is going to be a nightmare to defend. Depth could be a bit of an issue, as TCU’s perimeter bench options are largely unproven, but people are the program are bullish on them. R.J. Nembhard is a redshirt freshman and former four-star recruit that saw some action last season before a knee injury forced him to redshirt. Kaden Archie is TCU’s top recruit this season, while another redshirt freshman — Lat Mayen, a 6-foot-8 native of Sudan by way of Australia — fits the mold of TCU’s roster to a T; he’s a combo-forward with three-point range that was considered the top prospect in Australia in his class.

Even if those newcomers struggle to adjust to the college level, it’s hard to imagine TCU finishing the season outside the top 15 offensively.

Kouat Noi #(Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
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BUT TCU IS GOING TO STRUGGLE BECAUSE …

There are real doubts about how good they are going to be on the defensive end of the floor.

The Horned Frogs finished 100th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric last season, and while Pitt had a reputation for being one of the Big East’s tough, physical defensive monsters in the mid-2000s, that mostly faded away once Ben Howland’s recruits matriculated out of the program. Dixon has had just one team finish in the top 20 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric since 2007, and that was when his 2009 team finished 19th.

Not only did TCU struggle to get stops last season, but they will now be losing the guy that was one of their most important defenders in Kenrich Williams. He was the program’s best rebounder. He led the team in steals last season. He was switchable and physical and allowed TCU to be able to play four-around-one when he was on the floor because of his ability to deal with bigger defenders. Frankly, he was really underrated last season.

Bane probably isn’t big enough to fill that role. I’m not sure Noi or Mayen is physically ready for for a Big 12 battle in the paint. TCU does have an injection promising frontcourt talent coming into the program — specifically redshirt freshman Kevin Samuel and the nation’s top JuCo big man, Yuat Alok — but they will be replacing the now-graduated Vladimir Brodziansky. That should be an upgrade defensively at the very least, but it won’t necessarily make TCU a better than average team defensively.

To be clear, I don’t think they need to be Virginia. We’ve seen over and over throughout the years that, in the NCAA tournament, teams that are elite offensively and good enough defensively have more success than elite defenses that can struggle to score. But if TCU is trending towards finishing the 2018-19 season as a borderline top 100 defense, that probably isn’t “good enough”.

Jaylen Fisher (Harry How/Getty Images)

THE X-FACTOR

This is pretty obvious, I think: Jaylen Fisher’s health.

Fisher, a Memphis native and former UNLV commit, was one of the first players to commit to Jamie Dixon when he arrived at TCU. A four-star prospect that was a top 40 recruit, Fisher has lived up to the billing. He averaged 9.9 points and 4.0 assists as a freshman. He averaged 12.3 points and 5.4 assists as a sophomore. The kid can play.

He also can barely find a way to stay healthy. A wrist injury cost him most of TCU’s NIT run when he was a freshman. A torn meniscus in his left knee suffered in August of 2017 cost him TCU’s summer trip to Australia and slowed the start to his sophomore campaign. He tore the meniscus in his right knee in January, ending his sophomore year midway through, and in early September he needed an arthroscopic procedure on the knee to clean some things up.

The hope is that Fisher is healthy by the time the season starts.

It should be noted that TCU has had success when he’s not on the floor. They won the NIT when he was out. They went 13-4 — with three overtime losses — in their 17 games after his injury last season. There are enough pieces here to make it work with or without Fisher.

But for TCU to hit their ceiling, to make a run at finishing second in the Big 12 this year, they are going to need Fisher healthy.

Hopefully, they get it.

2018-19 OUTLOOK

TCU is going to be really good. There’s little doubt that they will finish in the top half of the Big 12 once again this season; there is a clear-cut top four in the league, and TCU is one of those four.

Frankly, 15th might be somewhat high for them. I doubt there are going to be many, if any, preseason top 25s that have the Horned Frogs higher, but I also doubt there is anyone that will call you crazy for projecting TCU to get to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Personally, I think the upside is there for more.

If TCU can keep Fisher healthy throughout the season, and if they find a way to be able to consistently get stops, I think we’re looking at a team that has the horses to make a run to the Final Four. Those are two pretty big ‘ifs’, I know, but they are certainly within the range of outcomes for this group.

It should be a fun year in Fort Worth.

THE REST OF THE TOP 25

No. 16 UCLA
No. 17 West Virginia
No. 18 Oregon
No. 19 Syracuse
No. 20 LSU
No. 21 Mississippi State
No. 22 Clemson
No. 23 Michigan
No. 24 N.C. State
No. 25 Marquette

Iowa basketball coach admits to sexually exploiting 400 boys

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IOWA CITY, Iowa (AP) — A prominent Iowa youth basketball coach faces potentially decades in prison after admitting to a yearslong pattern of sexually exploiting and abusing at least 400 boys, including former players, their friends and other young athletes.

Greg Stephen, 42, posed as girls on social media to trick the boys into making live videos masturbating. He secretly recorded them showering during trips to tournaments. In some cases he recorded himself fondling nude players as they slept.

The massive scope of Stephen’s abuse was revealed in a plea agreement filed Thursday after the former Iowa Barnstormers coach pleaded guilty to seven charges, including sexually exploiting minors and possessing and transporting child pornography, in federal court in Cedar Rapids.

Stephen’s arrest in March shocked the basketball community in Iowa, where he for years was a coach and co-director of the Adidas-sponsored traveling program for the state’s top youth players. The case has played out amid heightened awareness of sexual abuse in sports triggered by the arrest of disgraced gymnastics doctor Larry Nassar, who is serving decades in prison after hundreds of women and girls accused him of sexually assaulting them under the guise of medical treatment.

Stephen acknowledged that he had a hard drive containing folders named for 400 different boys, each containing explicit photos and videos that he had amassed over the years through his involvement in the program for children ages 9 to 17. Many former Barnstormers have gone on to play college basketball at Division 1 programs.

Some images were of boys undressing and showering, captured by recording devices that Stephen secretly placed in hotel bathrooms. Devices designed to look like a bath towel hook and a smoke detector were used at his home in Monticello, Iowa, and his lake cabin in nearby Delhi.

Stephen also took photos and videos of sleeping boys with their pants pulled down, including recordings of himself touching their genitals with his hands and, in at least one case, his mouth.

One such recording involved a boy who was 11 or 12 and had been given medication by Stephen that made him drowsy beforehand. Stephen would share beds with players during trips in which players competed in American Athletic Union tournaments or attended NBA games.

When they weren’t traveling together, Stephen often posed as teenage girls on Facebook and Snapchat and used those profiles to trick boys into giving him explicit images. He would offer to exchange nude videos and photos, telling the boys the types of images to produce. He used software to record live transmissions of the boys without their knowledge, and saved those images as well as their chats.

Prosecutors said the victims’ folders included at least one explicit video or photo of each, with some containing many different types. The plea agreement says that Stephen “committed sexual acts and sexual contact” on an unspecified number of boys.

The conduct occurred in 2018 and in “past seasons going back several years,” according to the plea agreement, which notes Stephen had been involved with the Barnstormers since 2008.

Stephen had initially offered an innocent explanation of the videos of boys showering, telling investigators they were intended to monitor their physical development and were not sexual in nature.

Stephen’s conduct was exposed after his former brother-in-law, Vaughn Ellison, discovered a recording device while remodeling Stephen’s home in February. Ellison gave the device to police after seeing that it contained several videos of boys showering in hotels in Lombard, Illinois, and Ankeny, Iowa. Investigators obtained warrants to search Stephen’s homes , where they found the hard drive and other devices.

Stephen’s attorneys have argued that the evidence should be suppressed because it was based on Ellison’s unlawful seizure of a device. A judge rejected that argument earlier this month . The plea agreement allows Stephen to appeal that decision to the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals.

If his conviction stands on appeal, Stephen will face a minimum of 15 years in prison and a maximum of 180 at sentencing, which hasn’t been scheduled. He has been in custody since his arrest and will remain jailed pending sentencing.

The agreement notes that the potential sentence he faces will be lengthened due to the number and age of victims, the fact that he engaged in sexual acts and contact with multiple boys, and that he had supervisory control over them.

NCAA denies Oregon State forward’s request for immediate eligibility

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While Virginia received good news on Monday regarding its immediate eligibility appeal on behalf of Alabama transfer Braxton Key, Oregon State was not as fortunate.

Tuesday afternoon it was announced that the school’s appeal of the NCAA’s initial refusal to grant power forward Payton Dastrup immediate eligibility has also been denied. As a result Dastrup, who began his collegiate career at BYU, will have to sit out the 2018-19 season and Oregon State will be short a big as it looks to account for the early departure of Drew Eubanks.

Dastrup will have two seasons of eligibility at Oregon State, beginning with the 2019-20 campaign, and he will be able to practice with the team this season.

Senior Gligorije Rakocevic and junior Ben Koné are Oregon State’s most experienced interior players, with the former having averaged 2.7 points and 2.2 rebounds in 10.6 minutes per game in 2017-18. Koné was limited to just 16 games as a sophomore, as he underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his left knee last October.

Junior Kylor Kelley and freshmen Warren Washington and Jack Wilson will also factor into the Beavers’ post rotation, with the 7-foot tall Kelley having averaged 9.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.6 blocks per game at Lane (Oregon) CC last season.

Duquesne’s A.J. Palumbo Center getting $45 million makeover

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PITTSBURGH (AP) — Duquesne is giving the A.J. Palumbo Center a major makeover after the upcoming basketball season.

The school announced Tuesday that the reimagined 30-year-old arena will be named UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse after former Duquesne basketball player Chuck Cooper. Cooper played for the Dukes from 1947-1950 before becoming the first African-American to be drafted by an NBA team. The Boston Celtics selected Cooper in the second round.

The renovation is expected to begin in March and cost an estimated $45 million. It is scheduled to be completed in time for the 2020-21 season. The school did not say where the Dukes would play in the meantime.

The Palumbo Center opened in 1988 and serves as the home for the Duquesne men’s and women’s basketball teams. While the updated arena will have wider concourses, a new video board and upgrades to premium seats, capacity is expected to stay around 4,400.

Former Cincinnati assistant charged with misdemeanor assault

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Former Cincinnati associate head coach Larry Davis, who abruptly announced his retirement after more than 30 years in college coaching, is now facing a federal misdemeanor assault charge in connection with an incident that occurred on an airplane in September 2017.

According to FOX 19 Cincinnati, Davis is alleged to have groped a female passenger during a flight from Milwaukee to Charlotte on September 12, 2017. The victim filed a report with the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department that day. The charge is of the federal variety due to the fact that the alleged incident occurred on an airplane.

Davis served a 12-day, paid suspension as a result of the incident, with the punishment beginning on September 15, 2017, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Cincinnati athletic director Mike Bohn released a statement regarding the matter Tuesday, saying that the school had begun “the process for separation” shortly before Davis tendered his resignation last month.

“In Fall 2017, we learned of allegations against former employee Larry Davis regarding an off-campus incident which did not involve any member of the campus community. We immediately took proactive measures and suspended him from his duties while we took additional steps to ascertain more information. We could not substantiate the allegations at that time.

“We recently learned that the allegations may have additional support. Consistent with our guiding principles, we immediately commenced the process for separation.”

Davis, who had been a member of Mick Cronin’s coaching staff since 2006, was the head coach at Furman from 1997 to 2006. While Cronin was away from the team due to a health issue during the 2014-15 season, Davis served as interim head coach.

No. 4 Duke: Can Blue Devils avoid another disappointing season?

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Beginning in September and running up until November 6th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2018-2019 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

Every day at Noon ET, we will be releasing an in-depth preview of one member of our Preseason Top 25.

Today we dive into No. 4 Duke.


Duke, once again, is going to enter a college basketball season with the best recruiting class in the sport.

The difference this year is that not only will the Blue Devils bring in the best crop of freshmen, they bring in the best freshmen — four of the top 15 prospects in 247 Sports’ composite rankings will suit up for Coach K this season, including three of the top five and the No. 1 and 2 players in the nation. There are some outlets that rank R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish as the three best recruits in the class, and there’s a chance that those three could end up being the top three picks in the 2019 NBA Draft.

Let’s ignore the how for now.

(The FBI’s investigation into corruption in college basketball has told us that everyone breaks NCAA rules, but the best players in the country turn down hundreds of thousands of dollars and jobs for family members of the prestige of spending nine months on Duke’s campus?)

The issue here has been the product on the court.

Duke has been a disappointment relative to expectation more or less every year since Coach K made the decision to go all-in on one-and-done prospects. The obvious exception was in 2015, when the Blue Devils figured out how to defend in late February and wound up winning the national title. The same happened last season, but Duke was bounced in the Elite 8 when a Grayson Allen floater spent six seconds on the rim before falling off.

It hasn’t been a total disaster, but it is clear that Duke is nowhere near as consistently dominant now as they have been in the past. The Blue Devils haven’t won an ACC regular season title since 2010. They’ve won just one ACC tournament title since 2011. They’ve reached the second weekend of the tournament just three times in the last eight years.

The biggest issue has been on the defensive end of the floor. It got to the point last season where Duke had no choice but to play zone full-time.

I don’t think that will be the issue this year. Duke, on paper, looks like a team that should be able to guard.

But this team still has some warts that Coach K is going to have to work out.

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DUKE WILL BE GOOD BECAUSE …

The amount of talent on this roster makes it nearly impossible for the Blue Devils to fail.

Let’s start with R.J. Barrett. The 6-foot-7 point forward is the overwhelming favorite at this point in the calendar to be the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, and rightfully so. He needs to continue to develop his jumpshot, but he has everything that you’re looking for in an NBA player in the modern NBA. He’s athletic, he’s big enough to be defensively versatile, he’s skilled enough to operate in ball-screens, he can get a bucket, he has impressive court-vision. As far as I’m concerned, all you need to know about Barrett is that, as a 17-year old, he put up 38 points, 13 boards and six assists for Canada in an upset of the United States — who were coached by John Calipari — en route to a gold medal in the U19 World Cup.

I don’t think Barrett is quite as good of a prospect as some of the elite prospects in past seasons, but I do think that it is clear he is the best player in this class.

R.J. Barrett, Reagan Lunn/@DukeMBB

I said ‘player’ and not ‘prospect’ because there are some people that believe Reddish, and not Barrett, actually has a higher ceiling. At 6-foot-8, Reddish is more of a scorer at this point in his development, although he has played as a ball-handler at the high school and AAU level. He’s probably the best shooter out of Duke’s freshmen as well, and has the tools to be a really good defender.

I haven’t even gotten to Zion Williamson yet. The most famous player in college basketball in years, Williamson became a social media sensation thanks to his otherworldly athleticism. He is 6-foot-7 and 280 pounds, yet he dunks from the free throw line like a normal human being claps backboard on a layup and he set Duke’s school record for vertical leap. He’s quick, he’s fast, he has impressive footwork and he’s skilled enough — he’ll be the most dangerous grab-and-go big in the history of college basketball — to be able to handle the ball. He’s even a better shooter and a (much) better passer than he gets credit for.

Throw in Tre Jones, the younger brother of Tyus and the first true point guard Duke has had since the elder Jones finished cutting down the net in Indianapolis in 2015, and we don’t need to discuss anyone else on the roster to justify ranking the Blue Devils in the top five.

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BUT DUKE IS GOING TO STRUGGLE BECAUSE …

While I love all of the pieces in this freshmen class in a vacuum, I think there is reason to be concerned about how they all fit together.

Duke is going to try and play small this season. That’s not exactly breaking news here. Not only has Duke done this time and again in the past — Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum all played the for four the Blue Devils — but this group has three guys that can fill that role. In fact, this roster is the best-suited to playing that style. The ideal roster build for any team in this era of pace and space is having a point guard, a mobile five-man and three wings that can defend more than one position. That’s precisely what we see here.

It gets even more interesting when we start to think about the possibility of Zion Williamson playing the five a la Draymond Green.

The issue is the ability for the players on Duke to impact a game when they don’t have the ball in their hands.

What makes Golden State special in the NBA and what made Villanova so damn good in the college ranks last season is the same thing: The ability to shoot at every spot on the floor. Jalen Brunson was able to post-up and operate in ball-screens and beat a man one-on-one, but he was also a lethal catch-and-shoot guy. The same can be said for all of his teammates that played meaningful minutes, including center Omari Spellman, who scored 17 points and made four threes for the Atlanta Hawks this weekend.

Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett, Reagan Lunn/@DukeMBB

The same thing is true with Golden State. Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala are the glue-guys on that team, but both of them cannot be left open from the three-point line. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are two of the best isolation players in the NBA, but if you leave them open you will pay. Klay Thompson is one of the best three-point shooters in the history of the game.

Duke?

They have four freshmen that are all super-talented but that need to ball in their hands to be effective. Neither Zion nor Barrett are good enough from beyond the arc to force a defender to close out long on them. Reddish can make threes, but he’s known more as a scorer than a shooter at this point in his development than anything else. Jones is fine, but he’s more of a driver and playmaker than he is a shooter.

Without guys to space the floor, without someone willing to accept a role, running offense that doesn’t devolve into players going one-on-one into a crowded lane is difficult.

THE X-FACTOR

For me, the key here is going to be Reddish.

He has something of a reputation from the high school and AAU ranks as a talented kid that played on teams that lost far more games than they should have lost. He’s also going to be the guy that will likely end up having to make the most sacrifices for the good of the team.

Think about it like this: Jones is going to be the natural point guard on this team, and Barrett is going to be the guy that handles secondary ball-handling duties. Zion will be a grab-and-go threat and could lead the country in fast break buckets. In the halfcourt, his role will be pretty clearly defined — he’s going to be the guy attacking the glass and the player that gets isolated against slower and/or smaller defenders.

Reddish is the odd man out.

For a player that has spent his entire life as a lead guard, how will he take to being asked to play on a wing as something of a 3-and-D specialist?

2018-19 OUTLOOK

Duke’s outlook this season is no different than their outlook for the past four or five years.

They have as much raw talent as anyone in the sport of college basketball. They will enter the season as a consensus top four team that some folks are going to rank No. 1 overall. They are going to be the odds-on favorite to win the ACC regular season title, a favorite to get to the Final Four and one of the few true national title contenders in college basketball.

And there enough question marks about the talent, the youth, how the pieces fit and whether or not the pieces truly fit and how well Coach K is going to handle dealing with this much roster turnover to keep us from going all in on the Blue Devils.

Anything short of the Final Four will be yet another disappointment from this group.

THE REST OF THE TOP 25

No. 5 Villanova
No. 6 Nevada
No. 7 Tennessee
No. 8 Virginia
No. 9 North Carolina
No. 10 Auburn
No. 11 Kansas State
No. 12 Virginia Tech
No. 13 Michigan State
No. 14 Florida State
No. 15 TCU
No. 16 UCLA
No. 17 West Virginia
No. 18 Oregon
No. 19 Syracuse
No. 20 LSU
No. 21 Mississippi State
No. 22 Clemson
No. 23 Michigan
No. 24 N.C. State
No. 25 Marquette