2017 NBA Draft Preview: Which potential lottery picks will be busts?

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Over the course of the last three weeks, we’ve been churning out NBA Draft Prospect Profiles of the best players in this loaded draft for the fellas at Pro Basketball Talk.

You can find them here:

You can also find the latest NBC Sports Mock Draft here.

Today, we’ll be going through some of the projected lottery picks to determine who from that group will be a bust in the NBA.

RELATED: Lottery Busts | First Round Values | Draft Sleepers

Jonathan Isaac, Florida State: To me, Jonathan Isaac may actually be the most interesting prospect in this draft simply because no one really knows quite what to expect from him.

What I mean is that every other player projected to go in the top ten is more or less a known quantity at this point. The projected top five picks all have all-star potential, either at the point (Fultz, Ball, Fox) or as a big wing with small-ball four potential (Jackson Tatum). Malik Monk is an undersized two with explosive scoring ability. Dennis Smith Jr.’s talent is outweighed only by the red flags that come along with him. Lauri Markkanen is a seven-footer that shoots it like Klay Thompson. Zach Collins, Donovan Mitchell, Luke Kennard. We basically know what their role is going to be at the next level.

What will Isaac be?

Well, that depends on who you ask.

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Let’s start with Isaac’s potential. He stands 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and the skills to play on the perimeter. He shot 34.8 percent from three, and his 78 percent free throw shooting makes it conceivable that is his floor as a shooter in the long-term, while blocking more than two shots per 40 minutes. There isn’t a pair of skills more valuable in the NBA these days than the ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor. That’s what makes Golden State’s lineup that features Kevin Durant and Draymond Green so difficult to deal with. Throw in Isaac’s ability to move his feet and play as a switchable, multi-positional defender, and what you have is a player with a floor that’s higher than your typical 6-foot-11, 205 pound project. What’s the worst case scenario, that he’s Andre Roberson but a couple of inches taller with the ability to make a three?

So why is he headlining this bust list?

Because of where he’s being projected in the draft.

It seems pretty clear at this point who the top five picks in this year’s draft are going to be — Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson and Fox. Isaac appears to be a lock to go somewhere in the top ten with quite a few people projecting him to wind up as the No. 6 pick. NBA teams aren’t exactly expecting the No. 6 pick to turn into a franchise player, but anything less than a future starter with a shot to make a couple of all-star teams would be a disappointment with that pick, particularly in a year where the draft is as good as it is in 2017.

In theory, that’s what Isaac is, right? High floor with an incredibly high ceiling if it all comes together? I’m just not convinced there’s all that much of a chance that it “all comes together” for him. Perhaps the biggest concern with Isaac when it comes to his longterm development is whether or not he realizes just how good he has the potential to be. Part of the reason he wound up at Florida State is that he didn’t want to be in the spotlight that comes with playing at a school like Kentucky or Kansas. Part of the reason he played second-fiddle offensively to the likes of Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes is that he didn’t realize he could take over games at the college level.

You don’t have to do much projecting or guessing to see Isaac playing a role and doing it effectively in the NBA, but it would be disappointing if, with the sixth pick in this draft, Orlando ended up drafting a 6-foot-11 3-and-D forward that blocks shots, makes threes and plays on the perimeter on both ends of the floor that only turned into a role player.

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Dennis Smith Jr., N.C. State: If the NBA were to draft strictly based on talent, I think that Dennis Smith Jr. would have a chance to be a top three pick in this year’s draft. He’s that good. He may be the best athlete in this draft in the back court despite battling through a torn ACL he suffered two summers ago. He can operate in pick-and-rolls. He has three-point range. He has NBA point guard size. He has the total package.

But he also played on an N.C. State team that had absolutely no business being as bad as they were last year. The Wolfpack went 15-17 overall and just 4-14 in the ACC despite having a roster that was talented enough to get them to the Sweet 16. (Yeah, I said it. And I meant it.) They were disappointing enough that head coach Mark Gottfried got fired with two weeks left in the regular season, something that just does not happen in college basketball. After N.C. State lost by 30 points to a mediocre Wake Forest team, a Wake Forest player told the media that, “We knew if we got up early on them, they was going to quit.”

Does that sound like the kind of player that you want to be the face of your franchise at the point?

Point guards are supposed to be leaders, an extension of the coach on the floor, or so goes the cliché. That becomes even more true at the college level, particularly when you’re dealing with a point guard that is so much more talented than the players around him.

Smith is good enough to put up 32 points and six assists in Cameron Indoor Stadium in a win over Duke, one of the best individual performances we saw all season long, but that still wasn’t enough to make the Wolfpack anything close to relevant at any point during the season.

Smith is going to be a lottery pick, meaning he is going to be drafted by a franchise that is going to be bad and relying on him to make them good again. That franchise might be the Knicks or the Kings. They’re going to be asking him to do what N.C. State asked him to do, and we all saw how that worked out.

What makes you believe it’s going to be different when he’s cashing those NBA paychecks?

(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Malik Monk, Kentucky: The concerns about Malik Monk are really quite simple: There is a reason that 6-foot-3, 180 pound shooting guards aren’t all that common in the NBA. Regardless of what he’s able to do as a shooter or just how athletic he is, the simple fact of the matter is that Monk is too small for his ideal position at the next level.

But you wouldn’t know that based on where some believe he is going to end up being picked or the hype that he had throughout his freshman season with the Wildcats. Monk is too good of a scorer not to find a way to carve out a role in the league, whether it’s as J.R. Smith as a floor-spacer, an instant-offense player off the bench a la Lou Williams or a small scoring guard on a team with a point forward like Kyrie Irving. His ability to shoot is elite, and in a league that prioritizes shooting the way the NBA prioritizes shooting, that has value.

That that value can only be capitalized on if Monk winds up in a situation that allows him to play the way he needs to play.

Justin Patton, Creighton: There are some things about Justin Patton that I really like. He’s a good athlete, he runs the floor hard, he finds himself in a good spot to catch lobs, he knows how to work as the roll-man in ball-screen actions, he’s shown off some potential as a stretch-five with flashes of perimeter skill.

What concerns me about Patton is how much his effectiveness fell off once Maurice Watson Jr., Creighton’s point guard that was having an all-american season, went down with a torn ACL. When Patton was not on the floor with an elite playmaker, he struggled to impact the game. He averaged just 9.6 boards per 40 minutes — not a good number for a 7-footer in the Big East — and while he blocked a few shots, he was often late on rotations, if he recognized them at all. I think he lacks some toughness and physicality, and he certainly needs to improve his awareness, attention to detail defensively and some of those pesky fundamentals.

Put another way, Patton’s total package includes some intriguing skills, but I’m not sure those skills fit the role he’ll need to play to last at the next level.

Jarrett Allen, Texas: Allen may have the best physical tools in this year’s draft. He’s 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, hands that look like baseball mits and enough athleticism to do things like this:

There’s no reason that he can’t find a way to be Tristan Thompson … unless he just doesn’t love playing basketball. That is a concern that NBA decision-makers have regarding Allen, which is part of the reason that a player with all of the attributes that I listed earlier may end up getting picked in the late teens or early 20s.

VIDEO: Mykhailiuk’s late 3-pointer lifts Kansas over Huskers 73-72

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Kansas snapped a two-game losing streak in dramatic fashion late on Saturday night, getting a three from Svi Mykhailiuk with 23 seconds left to give the Jayhawks a 73-72 lead at Nebraska:

The real hero of the game, however, was not Svi.

It was Udoka Azubuike.

For a team that has been surviving on jumpshooting for far too much of their offense, Azubuike’s arrival could not have come at a better time. The 6-foot-10 center went for 26 points on 13-for-17 shooting – oddly enough, he didn’t get to the foul line a single time – and added nine boards, five of which were on the offensive end.

Azubuike also made the game-saving play in the final seconds, blocking a shot by James Palmer and tracking down the loose ball to preserve the win.

Saturday College Basketball Recap: Trae Young shines, comebacks galore, five ranked teams lose

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PLAYER OF THE DAY

Trae Young is well on his ways towards becoming college basketball’s best and most exciting story this season. Entering Saturday, he was leading the nation averaging 28.8 points and third nationally in assists, averaging 8.8 per game. Those numbers are going to go up, as the diminutive freshman went for 29 points and 10 assists as Oklahoma went into Intrust Bank Arena and knocked off No. 3 Wichita State, 91-83.

That gym is one of the toughest gyms in America to leave with a win. And Wichita State, traditionally, is one of college basketball’s toughest teams, one of the best defensive units in the sport.

And Young torched them.

He had 21 points and seven assists by halftime, as the Sooners jumped out to a 54-39 lead. What was billed as a matchup between two of the nation’s best point guards devolved into Young’s coming out party on national television. Here’s the big question to ask now: Just how good is this Oklahoma team if Trae Young is college basketball’s latest superstar?

THE REST OF SATURDAY’S STARS

  • UDOKA AZUBUIKE, Kansas: The lone big man on the Kansas roster played his best game as a collegian on Saturday night. He finished with 26 points – on 13-for-17 shooting, he didn’t even attempt a free throw – and nine boards, but more importantly he blocked a James Palmer shot with less than ten seconds left to help Kansas hold on to a 73-72 win in Lincoln.
  • JUWAN MORGAN, Indiana: Morgan had a career-high 34 points to go along with 11 boards as the Hoosiers came-from-behind to knock off No. 18 Notre Dame in the Crossroads Classic. Morgan scored Indiana’s last 12 points in regulation and eight of their 15 in overtime. With 11 seconds left, he scored an and-one with Indiana down three, and after the Hoosiers got an offensive rebound, threw down the game-winning dunk.
  • TYUS BATTLE and OSHAE BRISSETT, Syracuse: Battle finished with 29 points and Brissett scored 24 of his career-high 25 points and grabbed 10 of his career-high 14 boards in the second half and overtime of an 86-79 Syracuse win. The Orange were down by as many as 13 points in the second half on the road and still managed to get a win over their rivals.
  • QUADE GREEN, Kentucky: Green had 17 points and five assists as No. 8 Kentucky knocked off Virginia Tech, 93-86, in Rupp Arena on Saturday, but what was most impressive is that Green did it while wearing a sweet pair of shades to protect an injured eye.
Quade Green (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

TEAM OF THE DAY

For the first time in four years, Rutgers is the pride of New Jersey. Playing in front of a packed house at the RAC, Rutgers came from 13 points down to knock off No. 15 Seton Hall, 71-65. Corey Sanders led the way with 22 points for the Scarlet Knights, who used a 17-2 run to close out the game after the Pirates took a 63-54 lead with six minutes left.

GAME OF THE DAY

There were a number to choose from today. Virginia Tech-Kentucky was unexpectedly thrilling. St. Bonaventure won on a buzzer-beater.

And then there were the comebacks.

North Dakota had a buzzer-beater force overtime at No. 12 Gonzaga after the Zags erased a nine-point deficit in the final four minutes. Indiana’s comeback against No. 18 Notre Dame was wild, even if much of the game itself was boring. Syracuse was down 13 in the second half and won in overtime. Rutgers was down nine with six minutes left and won. And No. 10 Xavier? All they did was erase a 22-point deficit in the final 14:25 to win.

Should I mention the insanity of what happened with No. 19 Florida State and No. 22 Florida, losing by a total of three points in the same building on the same day to unranked opponents?

But for my money, the best game that we saw on Saturday was between No. 13 Kansas and Nebraska. The Huskers desperately needed a win at home to bolster their non-conference résumé while the Jayhawks were looking to snap a two-game losing streak.

They did.

Thanks to Svi Mykhailiuk:

WTF???? OF THE DAY

Have you ever seen an arena get evacuated in the middle of a game that is being broadcast on national television?

Because that is precisely what happened on Saturday at Value City Arena as Ohio State was playing Appalachian State. Early in the second half, an exhaust fan at a concession stand failed, which resulted in the fire alarm getting triggered and the arena being cleared.

It was a scary moment, but it was also an incident that was handled precisely the way it is supposed to be handled.

WHAT ELSE DO YOU NEED TO KNOW?

It was a good day for the guys that can’t shoot in the state of Kentucky. Kentucky, ranked No. 8 in the country and last in the percentage of points they get from beyond the arc, went 11-for-22 from three as they knocked off a good Virginia Tech team that leads the nation in three-point percentage. Then there’s Louisville, who beat Memphis in Madison Square Garden on the back of a 14-for-26 three-point shooting performance.

Saturday was not a good day for the basketball teams in the Sunshine State. It started with No. 19 Florida State, who suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of Oklahoma State in the first game of a double-header. In the second game, No. 22 Florida lost for the fourth time in their last five games, as they allowed Clemson to pick up their best win of the season.

It looked like it was going to be a really bad day for No. 10 Xavier, who trailed East Tennessee State at home, 51-29, with 14:25 left on Saturday afternoon. The Musketeers proceeded to go on a 39-15 run to end the game, winning 68-66 and leaving with nothing more than a warning for why it’s dangerous to take any team lightly.

Kyle Washington had 19 points and Gary Clark chipped in 10 points, 11 boards, four assists, three steals and three blocks for No. 25 Cincinnati in a 77-63 win at UCLA.

No. 23 Arizona cruised to another road win, this time at New Mexico, thanks to 24 points from Rawle Alkins, playing his second game since returning from a broken foot.

No. 18 Purdue cruised to an 82-67 win over Butler in the opener of the Crossroads Classic. Carsen Edwards led the way with 18 points.

VIDEO: St. Bonaventure beats Vermont on Matt Mobley buzzer-beater

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St. Bonaventure outlasted Vermont in Olean, NY, on Saturday afternoon, winning 81-79 thanks to this buzzer-beating three from Matt Mobley.

It was the only shot that Mobley, who is averaging 19.6 points on the season, made on the day:

Vermont guard Trae Bell-Haynes missed a layup on the previous possession, but Payton Henson was there for a put-back to give Vermont a 79-78 lead with just five seconds on the clock.

Jaylen Adams scored 17 points and had five assists to lead St. Bonaventure. Courtney Stockard added 14 points, and Amadi Ikpeze and Izaiah Brockington each chipped in with 13.

Anthony Lamb led the Catamounts with 27 points.

VIDEO: Arena evacuated during Ohio State-Appalachian State game

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There was a weird scene on Saturday evening as Ohio State hosted Appalachian State.

Early in the second half, a fire alarm went off as the game as being played, which was followed by an announcement played over the PA asking everyone to evacuate the arena.

And it was all captured live on the Big Ten Network:

The game was eventually continued, and it appears that the incident was nothing more than the fire alarm working the way that it is supposed to. From a statement released by Ohio State: “Tonight’s event was interrupted by a failure on an exhaust fan. The fan shut off and allowed the smoke from a concession stand to enter the fresh air return on one of our air handlers and activated one of our smoke detectors. The building systems worked as they were designed and we were able to reset the alarm, repair the exhaust and return to normal operations.”

Clemson rallies past No. 22 Florida 71-69

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SUNRISE, Fla. — Marcquise Reed threw a 75-foot pass to Elijah Thomas for a dunk that put Clemson ahead to stay with 37 seconds left, and the Tigers rallied from a 12-point deficit in the second half Saturday to beat No. 22 Florida 71-69 in the Orange Bowl Classic.

With Clemson trailing 68-67, Reed rebounded a missed 3-point attempt by KeVaughn Allen and threw a football-style pass from one free-throw lane to the other, hitting Thomas on the run for an easy score.

Clemson (9-1) beat a ranked team for only the eighth time in school history and continued its best start since 2008. Florida (6-4) lost for the fourth time in the past five games.

The Tigers won despite having a point taken off the scoreboard with 4 seconds left. Thomas’ free throw put Clemson ahead 70-68, but the point was wiped out when the officials realized it was Reed who had been fouled.

Reed then made two free throws to help seal the win. He finished with 22 points, six assists and five rebounds.

Gabe DeVoe added 19 points and six rebounds for the Tigers, who shot 51 percent. Clemson coach Brad Brownell earned his 300th victory.

Jalen Hudson scored the Gators’ first 12 points and finished with 23.

Egor Koulechov sank a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to give the Gators a 40-33 halftime lead, and they were up 47-35 early in the second half. Clemson took its first lead since 4 minutes into the game when DeVoe sank a 3-pointer to make it 67-66.

The meeting was the first between the teams since 1957.

No. 19 Florida State lost to Oklahoma State 71-70 in the first game of the doubleheader.

BIG PICTURE

Florida coach Mike White has been unhappy with his team’s transition defense. The Gators allowed only seven fast-break points, but that included Thomas’ decisive dunk.

UP NEXT

The Gators play host to James Madison on Wednesday.

Clemson plays host to South Carolina on Tuesday.