2017 NBA Draft Preview: Who are the value picks in the late first, early second round?

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Over the course of the last three weeks, we’ve been churning out NBA Draft Prospect Profiles of the best players in this loaded draft for the fellas at Pro Basketball Talk.

You can find them here:

You can also find the latest NBC Sports Mock Draft here.

RELATED: Lottery Busts | First Round Values | Draft Sleepers

Today, we’ll be going through some of the players projected to be picked late in the first round or early in the second round that could end up being a steal.

Harry Giles III, Duke: Everyone knows the story of Harry Giles by now. He was widely considered to be the best prospect in the loaded Class of 2016 throughout much of his high school career, but a trio of knee surgeries left him playing as a shell of himself during his one season at Duke. Now, instead of being a top pick in this draft he’s going to be a roll of the dice towards the end of the first round.

Giles is a gamble. There’s no doubt about that.

But I think that it’s worth whatever risk there is for a team with a mid-to-late first round pick.

Giles never found his groove this past season. No one would tell you otherwise. He wouldn’t tell you otherwise. There are, however, two things that need to be understood when talking about Giles:

(Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
  1. He never really had a chance to get into shape. His second torn ACL was suffered during the first game of his senior season in high school, back in November of 2015. By the time that he was finally ready to return to the floor following surgery to repair that injury, he underwent a arthroscopic procedure in his other knee, one that kept him off the court until the middle of December. By the time that he finally returned to action, he had been forced to sit out for 14 months only to immediately be thrust into the fold with less than two weeks to get into shape for a run through the ACC? That’s a big ask, and it was clear for much of the year that Giles didn’t have the legs or the wind that he needed to truly compete at that level.
  2. At this point in his career, Giles has never really had an opportunity to develop his basketball skill. He tore the ACL, the MCL and the meniscus in his left knee in the summer after his freshman season, and lost that summer and his entire sophomore year. By the time he returned to the floor the following summer, he was trying to get into shape for a run through that live period and to get into shape for his junior season. The summer after his junior year, Giles was utterly dominant. He looked every bit the part of a future franchise player, and then his knees gave out on him again. In other words, Giles still showed some flashes of having the physical tools that made him so promising, but he has spent so much time focusing on rehabbing and getting into shape during offseasons that he’s yet to have the chance to learn how to be a basketball player.

Giles is far from a lock, and at the end of the day, a team’s doctors are going to be the ones that decide whether or not he is worth the pick; can his knees hold up over the course of an 82 game season?

At some point, that potential reward is going to outweigh the risk of Giles already being broken. Maybe he already is Greg Oden, and he’ll probably never end up being Chris Webber or Amare Stoudamire like we thought. But if you can get a rich man’s Leon Powe or a poor man’s Tristan Thompson in the 20s, isn’t it worth it? If you’re paying a dollar for a lottery ticket, do you want to play Powerball or but a scratch-off?

D.J. Wilson, Michigan: I’ve long been on the D.J. Wilson bandwagon, and the rest of the basketball world has caught up. From a tools perspective, Wilson is everything that NBA teams are looking for these days. He’s a 6-foot-11 forward with a 7-foot-3 wingspan that made 37 percent of his threes and blocked 1.5 shots per night. Rim protection and floor-spacing. That’s what everyone wants in a player.

But what makes Wilson an intriguing prospect for me is that he’s more than just a spot-up shooter. He has a really nice base of perimeter skills. He has some impressive footwork and is a more dextrous, fluid athlete than you may realize. He’s also something of a blank canvas. He grew three inches late in his high school career, he spent much of his high school and college career battling injuries and he only just cracked the Michigan rotation as a redshirt sophomore. Put another way, he’s greener than a typical 21-year old prospect would be. There’s still room to grow.

And he needs to do some growing. He’s still pretty soft when he’s asked to battle inside — he averaged fewer rebounds than both Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball — and blocking a couple shots in the Big Ten is far different than blocking shots in the NBA. No prospect is perfect at the end of the first round, but Wilson is precisely the kind of project that can be built into something valuable.

Semi Ojeleye (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Semi Ojeleye, SMU: Ojeleye is as close to a finished product as you’ll find in this draft. After spending a year-and-a-half riding the bench for Duke, he transferred to SMU where he erupted to average 18.2 points while shooting 42 percent from three on more than five attempts per game. He did all of this while playing the four for the Mustangs. Should I mention that he’s 6-foot-7 and 241 pounds of solid muscle with a 40.5″ vertical and the kind of burst that let him finish near the top of the participants in this year’s NBA combine in lane agility and the 3/4 court sprint?

Ojeleye has all the tools to be a mismatch four in the NBA, the kind of player that can slide over and play the three when needed while filling in as a small-ball five when needed. If he was more productive defensively — he has low steal, block and rebounding numbers — or had a monstrous wingspan to make up for his relative lack of height, we’d be talking about him as a lottery pick. He’s my favorite late-first round pick in this draft.

Josh Hart, Villanova: On paper, Josh Hart looks like precisely the guy to follow in Malcolm Brogdon’s footsteps next season: four-year college star turned second round steal. On the one hand, it makes sense. They’re roughly the same size, they put up roughly the same numbers, they played for one of the sport’s best coaches who would grace the cover of NCAA GQ. On the other hand, the comparison makes no sense. Brogdon thrived in the NBA because he’s essentially a point guard that played out of position in college. Hart, on the other hand, entered Villanova as something of an undersized four that has turned himself into an NBA-caliber perimeter player.

The two situations are very different. But Hart is an experienced, versatile wing that can make threes, has developed his ability in the pick-and-roll and will play his tail off defensively. There’s a spot for him in the league, just don’t bet on him winning Rookie of the Year.

Derrick White (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Derrick White, Colorado: Derrick White’s story is incredible. If it was the plot of a movie it would be slightly more believable than Space Jam. As a high school senior, White is a sub-6-foot point guard that was gifted an offer to play for a Division II program in Colorado because the coach that was recruiting him to an NAIA school — the only coach recruiting him — got a bigger job. Fast forward five years and White has since grown to 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan and a 36.5″ vertical that can play, and defend, either guard spot.

This isn’t just some feel good story, either. White averaged 18.3 points and 4.3 assists while shooting 40 percent from three as the star of a Colorado team that finished in the middle of the pack in the Pac-12. He’s legit, and he is probably going to be a first round pick on Thursday night.

Jordan Bell, Oregon: If, back in October, you would have told me that the first Oregon player to get drafted in 2017 would be Jordan Bell, Dana Altman’s undersized, 6-foot-7 center, I would have laughed at you. But after his performance this season — which included a run to the Final Four where he looked like the second-coming of Ben Wallace — Bell has turned himself into a guy that could sneak into the back end of the first round. He’s short but he is a mesmerizing athlete his a 7-foot wingspan that protects the rim and will be a nightmare switching pick-and-rolls.

Kyle Kuzma (Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Kyle Kuzma, Utah: Kuzma has been rocketing up NBA Draft boards in recent weeks, as he has all the skills that NBA teams look for out of a power forward in the modern NBA. He is nearly 6-foot-10 with a wingspan above 7-feet. He’s a plus-athlete that has proven to be an above-average passer for the four-spot. He played four years for Larry Krystkowiak, who has proven to be capable of identifying and developing talent that requires his guys to defend. The key for Kuzma’s longterm potential, however, is going to be becoming a knock-down three-point shooter. He shot just 32.1 percent from three as a redshirt junior, and that was his best season shooting the ball.

Sterling Brown, SMU: Brown is 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan that, at 225 pounds, is quick enough to defend on the perimeter and tough enough to guard bigger players in the paint all while shooting 45 percent from three. The younger brother of former first round pick Shannon Brown, Sterling has all the attributes that you look for in a 3-and-D guy.

Player of the Year Power Rankings: It’s time to put Trae Young at No. 1

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1. TRAE YOUNG, Oklahoma: The way the college basketball Player of the Year award is given out is generally pretty simple: Unless there is a player on a good team – i.e. a top four seed – having an insane, outlier season, the award is given to the best player that is on the roster of a team that is a national title contender.

That rule has proven true in every year of the one-and-done era.

  • 2017: Frank Mason won and played for No. 1 seed Kansas.
  • 2016: Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield and Michigan State’s Denzel Valentine split the award. Oklahoma was a No. 1 seed and reached the Final Four. Michigan State was a No. 2 seed and entered the tournament as the favorite to win it all.
  • 2015: Frank Kaminsky was a No. 1 seed with Wisconsin.
  • 2014: Doug McDermott averaged 26 points for No. 3 seed Creighton.
  • 2013: The only name on this list that doesn’t quite fit perfectly, Trey Burke starred for Michigan, who was a No. 4 seed that year. But they also spent much of the season ranked No. 1, reached the Final Four and finished as a top five team on KenPom.
  • 2012: Anthony Davis won as the star of Kentucky’s title-winning team.
  • 2011: Jimmer Fredette won as Jimmer-mania swept the college basketball world and BYU finished as a No. 3 seed.
  • 2010: Evan Turner beat out John Wall for most of the awards. Ohio State was a No. 2 seed and Kentucky was a No. 1 seed.
  • 2009: Oklahoma finished as a No. 2 seed after Blake Griffin returned for his sophomore season and dominated.
  • 2008: The year before North Carolina won the national title they finished as a No. 1 seed as Tyler Hansbrough won the Player of the Year award.
  • 2007: Kevin Durant averaged 26 points and 11 boards for Texas as the Longhorns entered the NCAA tournament as a No. 4 seed.
  • 2006: J.J. Redick was playing for No. 1 seed Duke, and he was almost beaten out by Adam Morrison, who averaged 28.1 points for No. 3 seed Gonzaga.

That’s why Trae Young has not topped our Player of the Year rankings yet this season.

Because there wasn’t much evidence that he was on a team with a shot of getting a top four seed. I’m still not convinced that is any sort of lock, but as of today the Sooners are now sitting at 7-1 on the season and ranked in the top 25. If they win at No. 3 Wichita State this weekend, that will change. Even if they don’t, playing in a league that is as good as the Big 12 appears to be – no one in the conference ranks lower than 63rd on KenPom – will mean that their computer numbers will get and stay inflated once league play starts.

But here’s the other part of it: Young’s season is such an outlier than the rules may not matter. Assuming he stays on his current pace (I can’t imagine that he actually will, but he might) he’ll do things that have not been done for 27 years, and that may never have been done before. Young is currently averaging 28.8 points and 8.8 assists. The last player to do that was Loyola Marymount’s Terrell Lowery back in 1990-1991.

And as far as I can tell, no player – at least not in the KenPom era, so please correct me if I’m wrong here – has ever posted his level of efficiency on the insane amount of usage he gets in the Oklahoma offense:

2. MARVIN BAGLEY, Duke: Bagley posted another double-double on Saturday, finishing with 15 points and 12 boards as the Blue Devils took a loss against Boston College, but what was most concerning about that performance was that he took four shots in the second half and three of them were three-pointers. That doesn’t diminish the start that he has had to the season, where he took over down the stretch in wins over Florida, Texas and at Indiana.

3. TRA HOLDER, Arizona State: Tra Holder has been the best player for the most surprising team in college basketball this season. He’s averaging 21.2 points, 5.2 assists and 5.6 boards while shooting 46.3 percent from three on more than six attempts per game. He had 29 points and seven assists in a win at Phog Allen on Sunday. He put up 40 points on Xavier. He’s having a tremendous season.

4. MIKAL BRIDGES, Villanova: Bridges came to the forefront on Tuesday night in the Jimmy V Classic, and in the process took over the lead as Villanova’s Player of the Year option. Read all about that here.

5. TREVON BLUIETT, Xavier: Ho hum, it was another week with a pair of 25-point performances for Bluiett. He’s now scored at least 25 points in six of 10 games this season.

6. DESI RODRIGUEZ, Seton Hall: Rodriguez has turned into Seton Hall’s best player this sason. Last weekend, he had 17 points, seven boards and four assists in a blow-out win over VCU.

7/. JEVON CARTER, West Virginia: West Virginia has completely turned things around after that embarrassing start to the season. Carter has been the catalyst. He’s averaging 19.4 points, 6.0 assists, 5.4 boards and 3.8 steals and just put 23, 10 and seven on Virginia.

8. BONZIE COLSON, Notre Dame: Colson’s Notre Dame team took a couple of hits in the last month, but he’s still putting up impressive numbers and is an improved defensive presence. Now if he can only find a way to start making threes at a better clip again.

9. JORDAN MURPHY, Minnesota: Murphy fell this week and will continue to drop in these rankings for the same reason that I had a hard time putting Trae Young at No. 1 before this week. Minnesota needs to stop losing games.

10. LUKE MAYE, North Carolina: Maye makes his way back into these rankings. He’s averaging 19.9 points and 10.5 boards for the Tar Heels this season, but he really struggled against Michigan State. I need to see Maye play more teams of that ilk before fully buying in.

ALSO CONSIDERED: DEANDRE AYTON, Arizona; JALEN BRUNSON, Villanova; KEENAN EVANS, Texas Tech; D.J. HOGG, Texas A&M; DEVONTE’ GRAHAM, Kansas; DAKOTA MATHIAS, Purdue; YANTE MATEN, Georgia; SHAKE MILTON, SMU; LANDRY SHAMET, Wichita State; KHYRI THOMAS, Creighton; ALLONZO TRIER, Arizona

Point man: Can Nick Weiler-Babb’s move to PG put Iowa State back in the tourney?

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AMES, Ia. — It was clear Iowa State needed a change. The Cyclones stood 0-2 with an 18-point home loss to Milwaukee already on the resume. It was clear they were due for a reboot this season after losing four starters – including All-American point guard Monte Morris – but getting trounced at Hilton Coliseum by a team picked to finish eighth in the Horizon League constitutes an emergency.

The Cyclones didn’t panic, though. They adjusted. 

After that disastrous start to the season, coach Steve Prohm moved Nick Weiler-Babb from small forward to point guard while slotting the two players who had been manning the point –  sharpshooter Donovan Jackson and five-star freshman Lindell Wigginton – off the ball.

All Iowa State done since is win.

The Cyclones have rattled off seven-straight with Weiler-Babb flirting with triple-doubles, Jackson shooting 41.6 percent from deep and Wigginton looking like a future star.

“Good we moved him over there,” Prohm said.

It certainly has been good for the Cyclones. Iowa State was 9 of 34 (26.5 percent) from 3-point range, shot 38.8 percent overall and failed to reach 60 points in its opening two losses. In the seven games since, they’re converting at a 46.4 percent clip overall, 39.4 percent from distance and averaging 83.6 points per game. They’ve seemingly become a different team with Weiler-Babb at the helm.

“It’s taking a whole new role,” Weiler-Babb said. “Coach just told me whatever I have to do to win, I have to do it. That’s what I’ve tried to do. Take the ball out of the guys’ hands and give it to the scorers.”

The 6-foot-5 junior is averaging 7.9 assists along with 12.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He’s become indispensable for the Cyclones a year after being a bit player on the Big 12 tournament championship team.

“He went through some tough times last year,” Prohm said. “But that’s what everybody’s got to understand. Freshmen, sophomore, you’ve got to put your time in a little bit to have success and earn success. He’s doing that.”

The immediate returns have been spectacular for Iowa State, but a question still lingers as they eye Big 12 play later this month.

Is it real?

Or, rather, will it be real against an unforgiving Big 12 schedule? Given Iowa State’s non-conference slate, whether it is or not will determine the postseason fate of a team sitting on a program-best six-straight NCAA tournament appearances.

As good as Weiler-Babb and the Cyclones have been during their seven-game winning streak, the competition can’t be ignored. Iowa State’s best win during this stretch is either Boise State, which only got 8 minutes from Chandler Hutchison after a head injury, or Iowa, which is 5-6 with losses to Louisiana Lafayette and South Dakota State. The wins haven’t all come easy for Iowa State, either. They narrowly defeated Appalachian State and Tulsa while initially struggling against Northern Illinois and Alcorn State before pulling away.

Things have been good for the Cyclones, but they haven’t been perfect.

Iowa State is a mediocre shooting team overall and could have serious spacing issues going forward given the roster forces Prohm to play two non-shooting bigs together for major minutes. Wigginton has been excellent, scoring 20-plus in three of the last four games, but his level of athleticism is something the likes of Western Illinois can’t counter. Texas, Kansas and West Virginia can. Big swaths of the roster, which features eight newcomers, haven’t faced Big 12 caliber competition ever in their careers. Weiler-Babb’s size and skill at the point guard position makes him a major problem for mid-majors, but can he keep up this pace when he faces length and physicality similar to his own?

Those questions, though, have to be welcomed by the Cyclones. If there were answers to them for a team with so much youth and so many unproven players in new positions in mid-December, it probably would register in the negative.

That they’re unknown means there is possibility, opportunity and promise. That exists in no small part because Prohm made Weiler-Babb a point guard.

“The challenge is, what do we really want to be?” Prohm said. “But he spearheads everything we do.”

Texas’ Jones out with a broken wrist

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Texas may be without its leading scorer heading into conference play.

Longhorns coach Shaka Smart announced Monday that sophomore Andrew Jones suffered a hairline fracture in his right wrist and will be sidelined for the foreseeable future.

“Fortunately it’s not one of those injuries where he should be out for an extended long period of time,” Smart said at his news conference Monday, “but he’s going to miss at least the next few games before Christmas. They decided not to put it in a cast, which is good news.”

Jones suffered the injury last week against VCU when he took a number of tumbles to the floor. He’s averaging 15.3 points while shooting 52.4 percent from the floor and 43.2 percent from 3-point range.

“It’s a tough injury for us because he’s our leading scorer and has done a phenomenal job for us this year,” Smart said. “We’re going to need everyone on our team, not just guards, but everyone on our team to step up and take a little more responsibility.

“Your margin for error is a little smaller.”

The Longhorns, who are 6-2 with losses to Duke and Gonzaga, face Michigan on Tuesday, Louisiana Tech on Saturday and Alabama next week. Jones is certainly out for those games, and his availability for Texas’ first Big 12 games – Dec. 29 vs. Kansas and Jan. 1 at Iowa State – would seem to be in question.

“We don’t have an exact timeframe,” Smart said. “It’s really good news they didn’t put it in a cast.

“We’re hopeful that we can get him back in three, four weeks, but that’s not a set timetable.”

 

Coaches Poll: Villanova climbs to the No. 1 spot

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The new top 25 coaches poll is out, and the No. 1 team in college basketball is now Villanova.

Michigan State, who received 10 of a possible 32 first-place votes, came in at No. 2 while Duke, last week’s No. 1 team, fell to No. 4 with a loss to Boston College.

After winning at Kansas this week, Arizona State vaulted up to the No. 6 spot, while the Jayhawks fell to No. 12.

Here is the full coaches poll.

1. Villanova (22 first-place votes)
2. Michigan State (10)
3. Wichita State
4. Duke
5. Kentucky
6. Arizona State
7. North Carolina
8. Miami
9. Xavier
10. Texas A&M
11. West Virginia
12. Kansas
13. Gonzaga
14. TCU
15. Seton Hall
16. Virginia
17. Purdue
18. Notre Dame
19. Florida State
20. Tennessee
21. Baylor
22. Florida
23. Arizona
24. Oklahoma
25. Creighton

Villanova hops over Michigan State for No. 1 in AP Top 25

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Villanova’s unbeaten start now includes a No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25 , while Arizona State is making a rapid rise into the top 10 under third-year coach Bobby Hurley.

After a tumultuous week in which unanimous No. 1 Duke and No. 2 Kansas lost, the Wildcats (10-0) earned 41 of 65 first-place votes to hop over Michigan State and reach the top for the third straight season.

Villanova and Michigan State were the favorites to take over at the top after the Blue Devils’ weekend loss at Boston College, though there was far less certainty for voters about who was now the nation’s top team. The Spartans (9-1) earned 19 first-place votes to climb from third to second, while the other five first-place votes went to the Sun Devils — who leapt 11 spots to No. 5 after Sunday’s win at Kansas.

Arizona State (9-0) is off to its best start since the 1974-75 season. Now the Sun Devils — who also have a win against Xavier this season — have their highest ranking since reaching third during the 1980-81 season.

Wichita State climbed three spots to No. 3, followed by Duke and Arizona State. Unbeaten Miami climbed four spots to No. 6, followed by North Carolina, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Xavier to round out the top 10.

Villanova helped itself with an impressive win against No. 12 Gonzaga last week in New York, though the Wildcats had to fight to the final minute Sunday to close out a La Salle team that entered at 5-5.

“It’s always an honor to be ranked No. 1,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said in a statement. “It’s great for the Nova Nation and we appreciate the respect of the writers. We know it’s early, though, and we need to get a lot better.”

KANSAS’ FALL

The Jayhawks (7-2) slid 11 spots to No. 13 after two losses last week, the first coming against Washington in Kansas City, Missouri, before losing to the Sun Devils in Allen Fieldhouse.

SHUFFLE UP

Only two teams — No. 8 Kentucky and No. 12 Gonzaga — stayed in the same spot. Thirteen teams rose in the poll, while four of the seven teams that fell slid at least eight spots.

TOP RISERS

Arizona State’s leap was the biggest, though No. 11 West Virginia (9-1) moved up seven spots after beating then-No. 15 Virginia. No. 14 TCU (10-0) climbed six spots after a win against a then-ranked Nevada team.

Miami, UNC, No. 15 Seton Hall, No. 17 Purdue and No. 20 Tennessee all climbed four spots.

LONGEST SLIDES

While Kansas’ losses stood out, No. 22 Florida had the biggest fall of the week.

The Gators (6-3) slid 17 spots after home losses to Florida State and to Loyola Chicago — a game in which they led for all of 93 seconds. Florida salvaged a win against Cincinnati in the Never Forget Tribute Classic in Newark, New Jersey, to avoid a four-game skid.

No. 18 Notre Dame (8-2) fell nine spots after an upset loss to Ball State, while the No. 25 Bearcats (7-2) slid eight spots.

NEWCOMERS

There were three newcomers to this week’s poll, though one is more of a welcome back.

The list included No. 19 Florida State (9-0) and No. 24 Texas Tech (7-1), while Arizona returned to the rankings at No. 23.

Arizona’s 0-3 showing at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas made the Wildcats the first team in three decades to go from No. 2 in the AP Top 25 to unranked in a week. But four straight wins have the preseason Final Four favorite back in the poll.

SLIDING OUT

Minnesota (No. 14 last week), Nevada (No. 22) and Southern California (No. 25) all fell out of the poll.

1. Villanova (41 first-place votes)
2. Michigan State (19)
3. Wichita State
4. Duke
5. Arizona State (5)
6. Miami
7. North Carolina
8. Kentucky
9. Texas A&M
10. Xavier
11. West Virginia
12. Gonzaga
13. Kansas
14. TCU
15. Seton Hall
16. Virginia
17. Purdue
18. Notre Dame
19. Florida State
20. Tennessee
21. Baylor
22. Florida
23. Arizona
24. Texas Tech
25. Cincinnati