There is plenty of action happening on the bracketology bubble watch despite it being a relatively slow night for college hoops.
Dave Ommen’s latest bracketology can be found here. Rob Dauster’s Bubble Watch can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.
Here is everything you need to know to.
THE BUBBLE WATCH WINNERS
GEORGETOWN (NET: 55, NBC: First four out): Without question, the biggest bubble winner of the day is Georgetown, who landed their fifth Quad 1 of the season and by far their best win of the year by going into Indianapolis and knocking off Butler (12). There are two major problems with Georgetown’s NCAA tournament profile: The first is that they already have ten losses, but some of that is explainable: They are 5-9 against Quad 1 opponents and 9-10 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. They have played 19 games against top 75 teams. That’s a lot of good games, and a 9-10 record against them is hardly a bad thing. The other issue was a lack of elite wins, but they already had a win over Creighton (19) in their back pocket, and now they can add a road win over a top 15 team to the mix. My guess would be that they slide up to a 10 seed when Dave updates our bracket on Monday morning.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (NET: 51, NBC: First four out): Abdul Ado made the biggest player of the year for the Bulldogs, tipping home a game-winning bucket with less than a second left on the clock in a 78-77 win at Arkansas (43) on Saturday.
— ; (@sportyvids123) February 15, 2020
The enormity of this win cannot be overstated. For starters, Mississippi State only had one Quad 1 entering the day, and adding a second Quad 1 win means they now have the same number as their Quad 3 losses. But the bigger issue is that MSU’s schedule down the stretch features precisely one top 65 opponent. This was their last chance at a good win for their resume until the SEC tournament, and they got it.
ALABAMA (NET: 39, NBC: Off the bubble): The Crimson Tide picked up an enormous win on Saturday, as they knocked off LSU (27) in Tuscaloosa for their second Quad 1 win of the season. Alabama is now 14-11 overall and while their 6-10 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents is solid, a 3-6 mark on the road, a home loss to Penn (177) and just two Quad 1 wins is not a good sign. At this point, I think Alabama needs to win out during the regular season for the simple fact that their schedule is not all that strong. But they have a shot if they do.
VIRGINIA (NET: 55, NBC: 11): Tomas Woldetensae his a three with a second left on the clock to beat North Carolina (95) in Chapel Hill. The Wahoos are now 16-7 overall with a 6-6 mark against the top two Quads thanks to this win. They do have three Quad 1 wins, but just one of them — Florida State (14) at home — is a surefire Quad 1 win to go along with a Quad 3 loss at Boston College (145). Perhaps the biggest issue is that UVA has just two potential Quad 1 wins left on their schedule. They can’t afford slip-ups, and could really use a win over Duke (6) or Louisville (7) next month.
FLORIDA (NET: 38, NBC: 10): Florida blew out Vanderbilt at home on Saturday. Whoop dee doo. Florida’s resume is more or less built on a home win over Auburn (13) and a neutral court win over Xavier (44). They are 5-9 against the top two Quads without a Quad 3 or 4 loss, but this is still not a very strong resume. With two games left against Kentucky (24) and a home date with LSU (27), the Gators are not as comfortable is it may seem, but they will have chances to improve.
RHODE ISLAND (NET: 34, NBC: 11): URI did what they needed to do and picked off St. Joseph’s (237) at home. They’re 19-6 overall and they have just one Quad 1 win, but they are 6-5 against the top two Quads. The loss to Brown (236) is ugly, but as long as URI avoids the landmines on their schedule, I think they can get an at-large even with a loss to Dayton at home in March.
RICHMOND (NET: 52, NBC: Next four out): The Spiders picked up a win in the toughest game they have left on their schedule, beating VCU (42) by 18 points at home. For my money, the Spiders’ at-large hopes are more or less dead. I cannot see how they are going to be able to get enough wins to jump six or seven teams that play in tougher leagues with a schedule that includes a bunch of bad teams. But stranger things have happened, and they could end up getting another shot at Dayton (5) in the Atlantic 10 tournament.
UTAH STATE (NET: 46, NBC: First four out): After beating Fresno State, the Aggies have won four in a row and seven of their last eight games, ensuring they are still in the NCAA tournament mix and fully turning around a season that looked like it was lost as recently as three weeks ago. Wins over LSU (27) and Florida (38) are nice, but with three road losses to sub-85 teams and no more chances to land marquee wins, how are they going to make up for those losses? They don’t play another top 100 team the rest of the season. I don’t see how they can get in without beating San Diego State (1) in the MWC tournament.
EAST TENNESSEE STATE (NET: 41, NBC: 11): ETSU has a win at UNCG (61) and a win at LSU (27). With a 20-4 record and a loss to Mercer (205) at home, the Buccaneers have to win out and lost to only UNCG or Furman (73) in the SoCon tournament to have a chance, and even that will be a bit of a longshot. They won today.
… AND LOSERS
NORTHERN IOWA (NET: 35, NBC: 11): The Panthers lost at Loyola (102), which is hardly a bad loss, especially in the MVC, but I’m not sure that it is a loss they can afford. Their strong NET and wins at Colorado (17) and over South Carolina (66) on a neutral keep the Panthers in the conversation, but losses at Southern Illinois (148) and Illinois State (202) are killers. UNI cannot lose another game unless it is against Loyola-Chicago (102) in the MVC tournament if they really want a chance at an at-large, and even then, it will be tough.
TEXAS (NET: 71, NBC: Off the bubble): Texas lost their fourth straight game on Saturday. It was their seventh loss in nine games. They were beaten by 29 points by an Iowa State (80) team that didn’t have Tyrese Haliburton. The dream is over.
VCU (NET: 42, NBC: Next four out): The Rams are going to find themselves in a very tough spot after getting worked over at Richmond (55) on Saturday. They have now lost two in a row and three of their last four games, and if they do not beat Dayton (5) on Tuesday next week, than discussing the rest of their resume will not matter. They will not be a tournament team. We’ll talk Wednesday.
PURDUE (NET: 29, NBC: 10): The biggest issue currently facing Purdue after losing at Ohio State (23) is that they now have 12 losses on the season, including a Quad 3 loss at Nebraska (167), and the rest of their schedule is absolutely brutal. The most losses and at-large team has ever had is 15. For context, Indiana last season was 19-16 with six Quad 1 wins and nine Quad 1 and 2 wins and they were left out. Purdue is 4-9 against Quad 1 opponents and 7-11 against the top two Quads with a 3-7 record on the road. Their best road win is at Indiana (58). They’re in a tough spot right now.
ARKANSAS (NET: 43, NBC: Play-in game): The Razorbacks fell at the buzzer on Saturday when Mississippi State’s (51) Abdul Ado tipped in a missed shot with less than a second left. They ave now lost four straight games, are sitting with a 4-9 recorded against the top two Quadrants with just two Quad 1 wins — at Alabama (39) and at Indiana (58). They desperately need to get Isaiah Joe back.
STANFORD (NET: 33, NBC: First four out): The Cardinal lost their fourth straight game on Saturday night at home against Arizona (9). It was their seventh loss in the last eight games. They have an ugly Quad 3 loss to Cal (155) and just two total Quad 1 wins. Stanford will have chances down the stretch, but should we actually trust them to take advantage of those chances?
TENNESSEE (NET: 65, NBC: Next four out): The Vols fell to 14-11 on the season when they lost at South Carolina (66) on Saturday. That’s the fifth loss in the last seven games for the Vols, who still have some chances to get themselves onto the right side of the bubble but have enough work left to do that this is the last time you will see them in this space unless they get hot.