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Bracketology: Welcome to the top line, San Diego State

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Here is the latest NCAA tournament bracketology projection.

Welcome to the top line, San Diego State.  The Aztecs join Baylor, Gonzaga, and Kansas as No. 1 seeds in our latest bracket update.  SDSU remains the only unbeaten team in college hoops, buoyed by wins over tournament teams Iowa, Creighton and BYU.

The West-leaning geographical slate of top seeds means someone has to go East.  As SDSU is the fourth overall seed, that adventure belongs to them.  Several additional power conference teams are pushing for the top line, too – including Florida State, Michigan State and surging Seton Hall.  And let’s not forget about Louisville, a preseason top seed.  The Cardinals put together an impressive road win at Duke on Saturday.

The latest look at where our NCAA tournament bracketology projection stands …

UPDATED: January 20, 2020

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
EAST REGION Virginia Tech vs. Georgetown
WEST REGION NC State vs. VCU
SOUTH REGION  PR VIEW-AM vs. NORFOLK ST
WEST REGION MONMOUTH vs. ST. FRANCIS (PA)

SOUTH Houston                           WEST – Los Angeles
Omaha Spokane
1) BAYLOR 1) GONZAGA
16) PV-AM / NORFOLK ST 16) MONMOUTH / ST. FRANCIS (PA)
8) Arkansas 8) Illinois
9) Memphis 9) HOUSTON
Tampa Sacramento
5) Colorado 5) Arizona
12) EAST TENNESSEE ST 12) NC State / VCU
4) Maryland 4) Iowa
13) S.F. AUSTIN 13) NEW MEXICO ST
St. Louis Greensboro
6) Marquette 6) Michigan
11) NORTHERN IOWA 11) Saint Mary’s
3) LOUISVILLE 3) Duke
14) NORTH TEXAS 14) LITTLE ROCK
Albany Spokane
7) Wisconsin 7) LSU
10) USC 10) Oklahoma
2) SETON HALL 2) Oregon
15) WILLIAM-MARY 15) UC-IRVINE
EAST – New York MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Sacramento Omaha
1) SAN DIEGO STATE 1) Kansas
16) RADFORD 16) MONTANA
8) Rutgers 8) Indiana
9) STANFORD 9) Florida
Albany Cleveland
5) Kentucky 5) Creighton
12) LIBERTY 12) YALE
4) Villanova 4) DAYTON
13) AKRON 13) VERMONT
Greensboro St. Louis
6) Penn State 6) Auburn
11) Virginia Tech / Georgetown 11) BYU
3) West Virginia 3) Butler
14) COLGATE 14) WRIGHT STATE
Tampa Cleveland
7) Ohio State 7) Wichita State
10) DePaul 10) Texas Tech
2) Florida State 2) MICHIGAN STATE
15) AUSTIN PEAY 15) NORTH DAKOTA ST

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN      First 4 OUT Next 4 OUT
USC Virginia Tech Purdue Washington
DePaul NC State Minnesota Saint Louis
Saint Mary’s Georgetown Arizona State St. John’s
BYU VCU Xavier Richmond

Top Seed Line
Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas, San Diego State
Seed List

Breakdown by Conference …
Big Ten (10)
Big East (7)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)

Big 12 (5)
Pac 12 (5)
American (3)

West Coast (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Mountain West (1)

College Basketball Top 25 Power Rankings: Baylor and Gonzaga lead the way

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A new college basketball top 25 is now live.

Baylor is not the No. 1 team in my poll, and I suspect that they are going to be the No. 1 team in the country when the AP poll is released on Monday morning. The only reason they weren’t No. 1 last week is because four people (like me) had Duke at No. 1, stealing votes from the Bears. That … did not go well, so here we are.

I also want to talk through something else: Last week, I wrote extensively about why I think that it’s foolish to allow the result of one possession games to have a significant impact on the way that you view a team. One shot in a 70 possession game that is just one of more than 30 games that will be played this season is insignificant when determining the quality of a team, and I truly believe that.

But I also think it is important to consider how and why teams are winning close games, not just games that are one-possession games.

So let’s use Duke and Baylor for this example once again.

One thing that the Bears have proven over and over this season — at Texas Tech, at Kansas, at Oklahoma State — is the ability to close out a tough game, particularly on the road. That’s because they have a number of players on the roster that are capable of taking and making clutch shots. Against Tech, it was Jared Butler. Against Oklahoma State, it was Devonte Bandoo. The Bears may not look as good in the metrics because they haven’t obliterated the mediocre teams they have played, but they are 15-1 because they come through in the clutch.

Now, some of that may eventually regress. I believe in the clutch gene because I think life — not just sports, but everything every human being does — is confidence. Baylor has confidence in clutch situations, as much as anyone in the country. They do not get rattled by the moment, and they have a number of different options they can go to down the stretch.

Duke, on the other hand, does not. Their three losses this season have all been close games where the Blue Devils have struggled to find an outlet for offense in the final minutes. Maybe that will come with more experience — Duke is loaded with freshmen, Baylor is as old as anyone in the country — but as it stands, that’s the difference between these two teams.

Baylor won their close games.

Duke did not.

And I don’t think that’s a fluke.


The other thing that I want to discuss in this space is where I have San Diego State and Dayton ranked in the college basketball top 25. They are currently sitting and eighth and ninth in my poll, exactly where they have been for a couple of weeks now. And that is where they are going to stay for the foreseeable future.

The reasoning for me is simple: I don’t want to fall into the trap where I’m bumping a team up in the rankings simply because they keep winning in a league that is not as tough as the leagues where the rest of the teams in consideration for the top ten are playing, and losing.

I’m sure there are going to be people in San Diego and Dayton that call me a hater for this, and that’s fine. Maybe I am being a hater.

But the truth is this: I love both of these teams. SDSU is so tough defensively and Malachi Flynn has proven himself to be a flat-out winner at the point, while Dayton runs a pro-style, aesthetically-pleasing offense heavy on three-balls and Obi Toppin.

I just don’t believe they are one of the top six or seven teams in the country, and beating the likes of Nevada and Saint Louis is not going to change my mind.

Anyway, here is the rest of the NBC Sports college basketball top 25.



1. BAYLOR (15-1, Last Week: 2)
2. GONZAGA (20-1, 3)
3. KANSAS (14-3, 6)
4. FLORIDA STATE (16-2, 12)
5. LOUISVILLE (15-3, 13)
6. SETON HALL (14-4, 15)
7. DUKE (15-3, 1)
8. SAN DIEGO STATE (19-0, 8)
9. DAYTON (16-2, 9)
10. MICHIGAN STATE (14-4, 7)
11. BUTLER (15-3, 4)
12. AUBURN (15-2, 5)
13. OREGON (15-4, 10)
14. KENTUCKY (13-4, 11)
15. WEST VIRGINIA (14-3, 14)
16. TEXAS TECH (12-5, 17)
17. VILLANOVA (14-3, 18)
18. IOWA (13-5, 22)
19. ARIZONA (13-5, NR)
20. HOUSTON (14-4, NR)
21. MEMPHIS (14-3, 25)
22. MICHIGAN (11-6, 20)
23. MARYLAND (14-4, 21)
24. ILLINOIS (13-5, 24)
25. CREIGHTON (14-5, 23)

NEW ADDITIONS: No. 19 Arizona, No. 20 Houston
DROPPED OUT: No. 16 Ohio State, No. 19 Wichita State

Ten Things To Know: Recapping a wild Saturday in college hoops

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Saturday was the first full day of college basketball league play, and there is a ton of stuff to talk about.

Here are the ten things you need to know to get caught up on all the action.

1. FLORIDA STATE MIGHT BE THE SECOND BEST TEAM IN THE ACC

I’ll go on the record saying that Duke is the best team in the ACC this season, and at this point, I don’t that is a controversial opinion in the least.

They have the best point guard in the conference. They probably have the best big man in the conference. Their wings are starting to figure things out.
Hell, I think you can make a pretty compelling case right now that they are the best team in college basketball, and nothing about their blowout win at Miami changes my mind.

The question I have is who the next-best team in that conference is, and that question is not so easy to answer. We know it’s not North Carolina — more on them in a bit — and until Virginia figures out what they are doing on the offensive end of the floor, I can’t in good conscience call them the second-best team in the league. I thought it would be Louisville, but on Saturday, the 7th-ranked Cardinals lost, 78-65, to No. 18 Florida State in the Yum! Center, yet another example of the issues this team has scoring against defenses that can pressure them.

Jordan Nwora scored 32 points, shot 11-for-15 from the floor and 5-for-6 from three, and in the process answered the doubters that didn’t think he could compete against elite competition. And all it did was keep the score respectable, because the rest of the Cards were 13-for-47 from the floor, 3-for-13 from three and finished with just 33 total points.

The credit for that has to go to Florida State, because the Seminoles suddenly look really, really dangerous. They go nine-deep with versatile, positionless athletes that can switch everything, pressure full-court and just make life miserable for the teams they play. There’s a reason they’re fourth nationally in defensive turnover rate, and if they can get anything close to these kind of play from M.J. Walker, Trent Forrest and Devin Vassell moving forward, they will make plenty of noise in this league.

2. KANSAS TURNED TO FRESHMAN CHRISTIAN BRAUN AGAINST WEST VIRGINIA

The No. 3 Jayhawks’ 60-53 win over No. 16 West Virginia was just about as ugly as we expected it to be.

West Virginia shot 32 percent from the floor and had more offensive rebounds than field goals made. Kansas was 3-for-17 from three and turned the ball over 14 times, 10 of which came in a first half where they mustered all of 24 points. It was a tough, physical battle, and the guy that made all the difference was … freshman guard Christian Braun?

Braun played a career-high 30 minutes on Thursday. He started the second half. He scored six points, he grabbed five boards (second on the team to Azubuike) and he collected two steals. He provided a measure of defensive toughness — something that the likes of Tristan Enaruna and Isaiah Moss have struggled with — while giving Kansas a player on the perimeter that was a threat to make a three.

Raise your hand if you saw that coming.

3. IS IT TIME TO QUESTION JUST HOW GOOD MEMPHIS IS?

No. 9 Memphis lost their second game of the season on Saturday afternoon, as they dropped a home game to a Georgia team that seems like a long shot to get to the NCAA tournament on a day when their best player – Anthony Edwards – shot 4-for-17 from the floor.

It was not a great performance by the Tigers, and that is somewhat understandable. Memphis struggles to score in the halfcourt when they are at full strength, and D.J. Jeffries — their second-leading scorer and the guy that is the best at creating for himself — did not play because of what was dubbed “an illness.”

So the fact that the Tigers struggled for 40 minutes to score should not really surprising.

But it does beg the question: Are we sure that Memphis is a team that deserves to be ranked in the top 20?

Here’s what they have done this season: They won at Tennessee, who has proceeded to fall off of a cliff and does not look like they will be making a return trip to the NCAA tournament. They beat Ole Miss at home by a point, the same Ole Miss that was drubbed by 20 at Wichita State on Saturday. They beat N.C. State on a neutral floor. N.C. State lost on Saturday to Clemson, whose only win since Nov. 24th came at home against Jacksonville.

Put another way, Memphis is really talented, enough so that blindly assuming they are a top 20 team isn’t crazy, they just haven’t really done anything on the court that would prove this to be true.

4. PENN STATE PLAYING AT THE PALESTRA IS ELECTRIC

The most exciting game of the day in college basketball was between Iowa and Penn State, a battle of top 25 teams (I know, right?) that was played at the Palestra in Philadelphia.

Penn State ended up winning, 89-86, despite the fact that Lamar Stevens was battling some foul issues and Iowa’s Luka Garza went for 34 points and 12 boards.

But what blew me away more than anything else was just how electric the Palestra was for what was essentially a Penn State home game. I don’t think there is any doubt that it was a better environment than whatever building Penn State normally plays in; I honestly don’t even know the name of it. I’d be willing to bet that this was the single wildest crowd that a Penn State team has ever played in front of in a “home” game.

I say all that to say this: That should not be the case, not this season.

The Nittany Lions are really, really good. They are really, really fun. And Penn State fans really, really should show up to watch them play.

It will be worth the money. I promise.

5. WE ALL OWE TEXAS TECH AN APOLOGY

Back in the first week of December, when Texas Tech had just finished off a three game losing streak with a 65-60 overtime loss at DePaul, we all fired off our takes on the Red Raiders. They weren’t talented enough, the newcomers weren’t as good as last year, they couldn’t guard the same way, this team will struggle to get to the tournament.

Two days later, Texas Tech beat then-No. 1 Louisville in Madison Square Garden without Jahmi’us Ramsey, their leading scorer. After that game, I spoke with Chris Beard, who told me that his team was one or two possessions away from winning each of those games, that he wasn’t worried about what he has on his roster this season.

We should have listened.

Now healthy, the Red Raiders opened up Big 12 play on Saturday with an 85-50 mollywhopping of Oklahoma State. Those three losses? They came against a ranked Iowa team, a tournament-bound Creighton team and a DePaul team that is far more talented than a typical DePaul team.

Watch out for this team the next three months.

6. SAN DIEGO STATE HAS A VERY REAL CHANCE TO ENTER THE TOURNAMENT UNDEFEATED

Malachi Flynn went for 22 points, five boards and four assists and Matt Mitchell chipped in with 19 points of his own as No. 13 San Diego State remained undefeated by going into Logan and knocking off Utah State, 77-68.

The Aztecs remain one of just two teams in college hoops with an undefeated record, and there is a very real chance that is the case when the NCAA tournament starts.

There are two reasons for this:

  1. SDSU is really, really good. Like, Final Four good. Legitimately. They are a nightmare to play against defensively, and Flynn is exactly the kind of point guard you want come March. Should I mention that they won this game at Utah State — with Neemias Queta playing — despite missing starting center Nathan Mensah?
  2. This was the toughest game that the Aztecs have left on their Mountain West schedule. There are only three other teams in the league that are in the top 100 on KenPom: Utah State (57), Nevada (86) and New Mexico (97). Anything can happen on any night in league play, but rest assured, the Aztecs will be favorites in every game they play from now until the NCAA tournament.

Does that mean that they will pull a Wichita State and enter the NCAA tournament undefeated?

Of course not.

But there is a real chance — 2.7%, according to KenPom — that this group can make that happen. For comparison’s sake, the other undefeated team in college hoops, Auburn, has a 0.1% chance of going undefeated.

7. WICHITA STATE IS OFFICIALLY BACK

The Shockers improved to 13-1 on the season, their only loss coming against a very good West Virginia team, with a 74-54 win over Ole Miss on Saturday.

Erik Stevenson led the way with 29 points while Jamarius Burton chipped in with 16 points of his own.

The Shockers don’t necessarily have any great wins this season, but they have put together a handful of wins that are impressive enough that we need to take note. They won at Oklahoma State, they beat Oklahoma, they beat VCU and this Ole Miss team they whooped up on is pretty good.

The Shockers may turn out to be the class of the American this year.

On Thursday, they host Memphis. We’ll know then.

8. ASHTON HAGANS HURT HIS ANKLE

Ashton Hagans, Kentucky’s starting point guard, second-leading scorer and leading in both assists and steals, hurt his ankle near the end of their win over Missouri. And yes, it appears to be his ankle, and not his achilles, but Hagans may not be available on Tuesday, when the Wildcats take on a Georgia team that just won at Memphis.

9. KAMAR BALDWIN, WE ARE ALL WITNESSES

Baldwin shot 0-for-9 in the first half and went scoreless against Creighton on Saturday afternoon.

He scored 20 points in the second half, including three straight buckets in the final minutes to stretch out what was just a four-point lead as the No. 11 Bulldogs won, 71-54.

10. NORTH CAROLINA GOT EMBARRASSED

North Carolina played arguably the worst game that we have ever seen that program play on Saturday night. The final score wasn’t awful — they lost 96-83 at home against Georgia Tech, which is not as bad as the loss UNC suffered against Ohio State earlier this year — but that score doesn’t do the performance justice. UNC trailed 30-6 at one point. They didn’t make a field goal for the first 13:10 of the game.

I’ll let Roy Williams sum it all up.

“I want to apologize to all the North Carolina fans, the people that care about our basketball program, former players, everyone that cares about us,” Williams said. “We stunk it up tonight, and it’s got to me my responsibility. It’s the most negative I’ve ever felt about myself. The most negative I’ve ever felt about any team. We weren’t ready to play.

“If I had any idea what caused that I would have already changed it. It’s the most disappointed and most upset I’ve ever been in my life coaching a basketball game, and it’s not even close.”

Utah upsets No. 6 Kentucky, 69-66

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Kentucky had their chances, but the No. 6 Wildcats missed two wide-open threes on the final possession of the game as they suffered their second upset loss to an unranked team, falling to Utah, 69-66, on Wednesday night.

The Wildcats trailed by double-figures early in the first half and dug themselves a 17-point hole midway through the second half before finally waking up and making a run. Tyrese Maxey broke out of his slump and finished with 18 points while Ashton Hagans added 16 points, eight assists and four steals, but it was not enough to get over the hump.

As a team, Kentucky shot just 2-for-17 from three, including a pair of misses in the final 15 seconds of the game. And that, in the end, was the undoing of this team. They did not defend all that well, allowing Utah to shoot 55 percent from the floor and 8-for-15 from beyond the arc, but far too often, the only offense that Kentucky was able to muster came as a result of forcing turnovers and getting out in transition.

Editor’s note: Need Kentucky hoops tickets? Click here

I’ve said before that this team reminds me a bit of the 2014 Kentucky team, the one that had some 40-0 hype in the preseason, finished the regular season with 10 losses and reached the NCAA tournament. But I’m starting to think that this group is more like the 2013 team, the one that went to the NIT. Now, I don’t think that these Wildcats are going to miss the NCAA tournament – the 2013 team would not have missed the tournament if Nerlens Noel didn’t tear his ACL – but they also just did not have the talent or the right fit to ever truly have a ceiling.

Put another way, the 2014 team underperformed all year before waking up in the NCAA tournament.

The 2013 team was just OK, and it showed in how they played.

This team has that same feel.

They entered Wednesday night shooting under 30 percent from three, which is atrocious. The only guy that has shown flashes of being a dangerous, go-to scorer, Maxey, has also been nothing if not inconsistent. They have to play three small guards because their wings are not good enough. They can’t get to the offensive glass. Their bigs are lost defensively.

Maybe I’m being too harsh, but the more that I watch this team, the more I think they are destined for a first weekend exit in March.

Thursday’s Things to Know: Struggles pop up for Pac-12, Georgetown picks up a big win and a wedgie rescues Notre Dame

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There weren’t any matchups between top-25 teams Thursday night, with the main November events still a week away, but there is plenty to discuss from around the country. Here’s what you need to know.

1. A rough night for the Pac-12

After a strong start to the season, the Pac-12 came back down to earth on Thursday.

The league only managed to get just three teams into the NCAA tournament in each of the last two years. But things have been pretty dire since the league expanded ahead of the 2011-12 season. That year the league’s regular-season champion, Washington, didn’t even make the tournament, though Cal (a 12 seed) and Colorado (11) did. That’s it.

Things have, admittedly, improved since then, but that was really the only direction to head, right? Only three times in the last eight years has the conference gotten more than four teams into the tournament. The Pac-12, which as a reminder is a Power 5 conference, has only been ranked as a top-five conference nationally on KenPom three times in the last eight years.

There isn’t much in the way of expectation for the league this season, certainly past the quartet of Oregon, Colorado, Arizona and Washington, but the conference started hot. Entering Thursday, they were 43-4 combined on the season. Still, though, nights like Thursday are difficult to watch.

It was an awful evening for the Pac-12, with Washington State blowing a 16-point lead at home in an eventual 85-77 loss to Omaha of the Summit League, Utah getting blasted 79-55 by the Sun Belt’s Coastal Carolina in the Myrtle Beach Classic and Cal getting demolished by top-ranked Duke, 87-52. Then to top it all off, UCLA lost at home to CAA resident Hofstra. Arizona was the bright spot of the night, and the Wildcats needed to overcome a halftime deficit to beat South Dakota State in Tucson.

Obviously, none of those four teams which lost Thursday were expected to carry the Pac-12 banner this season and 12-team leagues are going to inevitably have some bad teams every season, but, my goodness, is there a better distillation of the overall health of the league’s basketball than a night like this?

Cal was miles away from being able to compete with the Blue Devils while both the Cougars and Utes couldn’t even hang with teams from so-so mid-major conferences. UCLA is the flagship program in the conference and they lost to a Hofstra team that lost their pro to graduation this offseason. It’s a league whose best teams can compete against the country’s best, but has almost no meaningful depth beyond that thin upper crust.

The Pac-12 has had just one Final Four team since its expansion, with Oregon getting there in 2017. That ties the conference with the Missouri Valley over that same period. Some of it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the vast majority of the Pac-12 is no good, it makes building an NCAA resume for its good teams more difficult, leaving them with more difficult NCAA tournament paths. Maybe that changes this year if undefeated starts for USC, Stanford and UCLA signal an improving middle class. Thursday’s results don’t signal good times on the horizon, though.

It’s just all around ugly for the Pac-12.

It’s bad news for people who like to stay up late watching west coast basketball, but it’s really bad news for a league whose genuine tradition slides further and further into memory with each passing season.

2. Georgetown lands a top-25 win

The first two years of the Patrick Ewing era at Georgetown have been encouraging, with the Hoyas improving both their overall and Big East win totals by four in Year 2 of the Hall of Famer’s return to his alma mater. It wasn’t enough to get the Hoyas even on to the NCAA bubble last year, though, thanks in part to a horribly weak non-conference schedule.

The Hoyas beefed up their early-season schedule this season, and just saw the first fruits of the decision.

Georgetown ran away from No. 22 Texas in an 82-66 victory at Madison Square Garden to land a potentially resume-booster four months before Selection Sunday.

Ewing has an interesting and talented team with the backcourt duo of James Akinjo and Mac McClung back for sophomore seasons and big man Omer Yurtseven eligible after sitting out last season following his transfer from NC State. Testing this group early is only going to pay dividends in the long-run.

Ewing’s first non-conference schedule was ranked 351st by KenPom and last year’s was only marginally better at 292. Now, the Hoyas have already faced Penn State and Texas, with Duke on a neutral floor coming Friday with a road swing at Oklahoma State and SMU on tap before Syracuse visits D.C.

That’s a real non-conference schedule. And Ewing might have the team to navigate it, with the destination ultimately being his first NCAA tournament appearance.

3. Notre Dame rides wedgie to win

There are fewer pure facepalm moments on a basketball court than when a player lodges a shot between the rim and the backboard. The wedgie, as it’s commonly known, is one of the game’s great quirks.

Maybe never, though, has the phenomenon been as welcomed as it was in South Bend on Thursday.

The wedgie helped Notre Dame pull itself out of a tight spot.

Down three, the Fighting Irish got a great look from distance, but TJ Gibbs’ attempt missed its mark. Had it been any normal carom, the game would have just ended with a Notre Dame home loss to Toledo. But no, my friends, Gibbs’ miss was not of the standard variety. It was, indeed, a wedgie. Which means a stopped clock and a jump ball, giving the ball back to Notre Dame with a second to play.

That set up Nate Laszewski’s overtime-forcing triple as time expired in regulation. Notre Dame went on to win, 64-62, in overtime.

Truly, a rescue wedgie.

Utah wins by 94 points, sets record for largest margin of victory over Division I opponent

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I’m guessing that Lindsey Hunter didn’t enjoy his Friday night in Salt Lake City.

In just his second game as the head coach at Mississippi Valley State, the Delta Devils suffered the worst loss in the history of college basketball.

That’s not an exaggeration, either.

MVSU lost at Utah by a score of 143-49. That’s a 94 point loss. That is the largest margin of victory for one Division I team over another Division I team, breaking the previous record of 91 points. That was held by Tulsa and dated back to 1995.

Nine Utah players were in double figures, including all five starters. Timmy Allen had 26 points to lead the way, and the Utes shot 17-for-34 from three, an absurd 40-for-56 from inside the arc and outrebounded MVSU by 40.

That is a beatdown.