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College Basketball Top 25 Power Rankings: Louisville or Ohio State at No. 1?

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It feels like college basketball makes a little more sense today than it did at this time last week.

That’s because, over the course of the last seven days, we’ve had a number of marquee non-conference battles, from the showdowns that took place during the ACC-Big Ten Challenge to a wild Saturday that was headlined by a battle of top 20 teams to a Sunday that happened to feature the worst game between top ten teams that we’ve ever seen.

So there’s a lot to dig through.

And in a season where it doesn’t feel like there are any great teams, I will say this: I think that we’re starting to get some separation at the top.

Anyway, here is my AP poll with some explanation as to why I slotted teams in those spots.



1. LOUISVILLE (9-0, Last Week: 2)

2. OHIO STATE (9-0, 6)

I think there are only two teams this week that can justifiably be ranked No. 1 in a poll: Louisville and Ohio State.

And both have strong claims to the top spot. Louisville was No. 1 in the AP Poll last week and all they did was land a couple of double-digit wins over Pitt and No. 4 Michigan, who was No. 1 in this space seven days ago. They’re very much deserving of being the No. 1 team in the country.

But Ohio State has an argument as well. The Buckeyes beat North Carolina and Penn State by an average of 28.5 points this week, with the win over the former coming in Chapel Hill. The Buckeyes have three wins over 25 points or more over KenPom top 25 opponents. To put that into context, there have been just six instances this season where a KenPom top 50 team has lost by 20 or more. Ohio State is responsible for half of them.

So they’re deserving of consideration as well.

3. KANSAS (7-1, 3)

If you forced me to put college basketball into tiers, I would have Kansas as the third team in the top tier. Hell, I think that there’s an argument to be made that they are the favorite to win the national title right now. They have the most unstoppable force of the elite teams – see: Azubuike, Udoka – and they have the best point guard play as well. They beat No. 20 Colorado by 14 on Saturday evening, a win that is going to age really nicely.

4. MICHIGAN (8-1, 1)

The Wolverines got smoked when they played at Louisville on Tuesday, which was hardly unexpected. Michigan was coming off of a trip to the Bahamas, where they played three games in three days, and it was the most obvious fade Michigan spot in the history of gambling. They bounced back on Friday by putting up 103 points on Iowa.

5. MARYLAND (10-0, 4)

Maryland is still undefeated despite trying their damnedest to not be undefeated anymore. The Terps needed to rally from 15 points down in the second half to avoid dropping a home game against Illinois, but they did it. I’m still torn on just how good this team is, but the talent is undoubtedly there.

6. GONZAGA (10-1, 8)

The Zags went into Seattle and picked off in-state rival Washington on Sunday night. That’s a really nice win for a team that seems to be flying under the radar a little bit. Remember the name Joel Ayayi. He’s the x-factor for Mark Few.

7. KENTUCKY (7-1, 5)

We just have to survive games against Georgia Tech and Utah in the next 10 days and we’ll get rewarded with the Wildcats taking on No. 1 Louisville and No. 2 Ohio State in the span of one week. I’m already fired up.

8. ARIZONA (9-1, 9)

I discussed why on the podcast (at the 26:50 mark), but I actually feel better about Arizona after they lost at Baylor than I did before they played.

9. AUBURN (8-0, 10)

I’m still in on this Auburn team. They struggled with Furman at home, but the Palladins are well coached with good guard play. Teams like that are not going to be affected by Auburn’s pressure. There’s a reason they are still undefeated.

10. DAYTON (7-1, 12)

I guess that I’m still higher than the public on Dayton, and they rewarded me by going out west and taking care of Saint Mary’s in Phoenix. This is a really, really good team that spaces the floor, shoots a ton of threes and has Obi Toppin. They’re legit.

11. DUKE (9-1, 13)

Exactly seven days after they lost at home to Stephen F. Austin as the No. 1 team in the country, Duke turned around and went into East Lansing and handed the preseason No. 1 team in the country a beatdown. I don’t pretend to understand it.

12. OREGON (7-2, 15)

The Ducks bounced back from a tough trip to the Bahamas by beating Hawaii in Eugene over the weekend. We’ll get a better sense for just how good they are this weekend, when they head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan.

13. BAYLOR (7-1, 17)

The Bears hung on to beat Arizona at home on Saturday despite playing what sounded like a road game in their own gym. That’s what happens in Big 12 country when your football team is playing for the conference title at the exact same time. The big question with Baylor is going to be whether or not Tristan Clark can ever get back to 100 percent.

14. VILLANOVA (7-2, 18)

The Wildcats have been pretty good since they were plastered by Ohio State in Columbus, and there is still rook for them to grow. Bryan Antoine has only played 38 minutes this season as he comes back from shoulder surgery.

15. UTAH STATE (9-1, 19)

Neemias Queta is back, which means that we can finally start to see the Aggies that we have been expecting to see since last March. When healthy, this is a dangerous group.

16. SETON HALL (6-3, 16)

The status of Sandro Mamukelashvili, who may have broken a bone in his wrist, is much more important than losing on the road at Iowa State. Without him, Seton Hall’s ceiling takes a significant hit.

17. MEMPHIS (8-1, 20)

Memphis just keeps winning without James Wiseman. On Saturday, they erased a 20 point deficit on the road against a pretty decent UAB team.

18. BUTLER (9-0, NR)

The most underrated team in college basketball right now, the Bulldogs picked off Florida in Hinkle this weekend after going into Oxford and beating Ole Miss.

19. TENNESSEE (7-1, 22)

The Vols have only played one game since returning from the Emerald Coast Classic. They get Memphis on Saturday. Buckle up.

20. VIRGINIA (8-1, 7)

The Wahoos can’t score. When you go from having Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy and De’Andre Hunter to Kihei Clark, Kody Stattman and Mamadi Diakite, you are going to take a step back.

21. NORTH CAROLINA (6-3, 11)

I’m not sure what to do with North Carolina. On the one hand, they looked awful this week. On the other hand, they’re a young team still learning how they are going to play that had to go up against the two best defensive teams in college basketball.

22. XAVIER (9-1, 24)

Xavier’s win over Cincinnati on Saturday should force you to take notice. All the people that Travis Steele bought beers for certainly did.

23. PURDUE (6-3, NR)

Purdue gave up 84 points in two games this weekend against Virginia and Northwestern. Matt Painter might be able to get to the NCAA tournament with my men’s league team.

24. FLORIDA STATE (7-2, 21)

Just when I was starting to buy in to the Florida State hype they go out and lose by 14 at Indiana, who promptly goes and loses by 20 to Wisconsin. I don’t know anymore.

25. MARQUETTE (7-2, NR)

I’ve been impressed with Marquette defensively. If you can guard and you have two players that are as good at getting a bucket as Markus Howard and Koby McEwen, you have a chance to win a bunch of games.

NEW ADDITIONS: No. 18 Butler, No. 23 Purdue, No. 25 Marquette
DROPPED OUT: No. 14 Michigan State, No. 23 Florida, No. 25 Colorado

Monday’s Overreactions: Michigan’s awesome, Udoka Azubuike’s breakout, Obi Toppin alert

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PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Obi Toppin, Dayton

Heading into the Maui Invitational, Obi Toppin was one of the best kept secrets in college basketball.

We all knew who he was, but we didn’t quite have a feel for whether or not he was simply a really, really good Atlantic 10 player or a legitimate candidate for All-American and the top of the 2020 NBA Draft.

Turns out, it’s the latter.

And even the people that were bullish on Toppin probably undervalued him.

In three games in the Maui Invitational, Toppin averaged 22.3 points and 7.0 boards. He blocked four shots in the three games, including three in the overtime loss to Kansas in the title game. He was a very nice 25-for-36 (69%) from the floor and 6-for-11 from three. He was the best player every time he stepped into the gym, and he proved it.

That matters a great deal for Toppin since he does play in something of a lesser league. He’s not going to be on national television every single night going up against the likes of Kansas, or Anthony Edwards, or the team that just beat No. 3 Michigan State. He needed to make a statement in the event that literally everyone in the world pays attention to, and he did.

TEAM OF THE WEEK: Michigan Wolverines

There really was no decision to make here.

Michigan went from unranked to No. 1 in the NBC Sports Top 25.

What more can I say?

OVERREACTIONS

1. MICHIGAN IS THE BEST TEAM IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL

The Wolverines have one of the nation’s best point guards a senior leader in Zavier Simpson that is also the head of the snake defensively. They have one of the nation’s most underrated big men, a 7-footer in Jon Teske that has developed into an elite defensive presence that can play as a pick-and-pop five or roll to the rim. They are one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams, with myriad and versatile wings that can space the floor and lock up defensively.

Truthfully, we should have seen this coming from Juwan Howard’s program. I explain why in this column.

2. THE MOST IMPORTANT PERFORMANCE OF THIS WEEK CAME FROM UDOKA AZUBUIKE

I think that I can make the argument that the single-most important individual development from Feast Week came when Udoka Azubuike completely took over a game against Dayton.

Doke is a throwback center. He’s a low-post behemoth that can barely make free throws, let alone threes, and saying he moves slowly laterally is like saying that grass grows slowly in the winter. Dayton is a team that plays five-out, that has shooters every where on the floor and that actually has the adequate size and rim protection to hold their own against a big like Azubuike in the post.

And, after about a dozen post touches in the final five minutes and overtime, Azubuike was able to lead Kansas back from a late eight-point deficit to an overtime win against the Flyers.

I went in depth on why this matters in this column.

3. DAYTON’S PERFORMANCE IN THE MAUI INVITATIONAL WAS AWESOME, BUT HAS BEEN OVERVALUED

I cannot take credit for this overreaction. This is courtesy of Bobby Reagan, which he discussed on the CBT podcast on Monday, but I’m going to be talking about it here.

The Maui Invitational is the most visible Feast Week tournament. It’s the oldest that is still running, for starters, and it’s held in one of the best environments for a neutral site college basketball game in the world. There’s tradition, there’s history and that means there are plenty of casual college basketball fans that love it.

But that exposure means that a couple good performances can end up being massively overrated, and Dayton is the perfect example. The Flyers dominated a couple of high-major teams in Georgia and Virginia Tech, but there’s no guarantee that either of those two teams are going to be in the NCAA tournament in March. I’m guessing that both of them will eventually end up being Quad II wins. The most impressive thing Dayton did was A) Take Kansas to overtime, and B) Do it while playing a style, and with a super star, that made them jump off the page.

Put another way, anyone with two eyes will know that the Flyers are really dangerous.

But the truth is that they really did not do all that much this week to change their resume on the islands.

4. FLORIDA STATE IS A TOP 20 TEAM AT WORST

I was ready to write off Florida State as anything more than an also-ran after they went into Pittsburgh and lost to the Panthers on the opening night of the season.

And that … might have been a mistake.

Because since that season-opening loss, Florida State has reeled of seven straight wins. They beat Florida at Florida before this weekend’s Emerald Coast Classic, in which they beat Tennessee and Purdue.

The Seminoles lost some big names, but they still have all kinds of length and athleticism, and they are still a nightmare defensively, and when you combine that with the emergence of Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest and the addition of P.J. Williams, you get a pretty damn good basketball team.

5. DEPAUL IS A TOP SIX TEAM IN THE BIG EAST

I’m not ready to say top five.

Not just yet.

The Blue Demons are 8-0 on the season and they have been the easiest team to bet on over the course of the last month. It’s obvious that the market has undervalued them, I’ve won a lot of bets on the Blue Demons proving me correct and I’m sad that is going to end up going away pretty soon.

That said, their three good wins right now are at Iowa, at Boston College and at Minnesota. Beating those three teams on the road matters, but I don’t think any of the three are actually any good. The Blue Demons get Texas Tech at home on Wednesday. Let’s see what happens then.

Until then, it’s hard to justify putting DePaul above any of Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette or Butler.

Bracketology: Michigan State headlines opening Field of 68

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Every Selection Sunday journey begins somewhere.  This year, that somewhere is East Lansing.

To no one’s surprise, Michigan State headlines our preseason edition of Bracketology.  The Spartans have the talent, experience and depth to reach another Final Four.

MSU is joined at the top of the bracket by Kentucky, Louisville and Kansas.  A host of other familiar names are close behind: Duke, Florida, Gonzaga, Maryland and North Carolina.  Other top four seeds include reigning National Champion Virginia and runner-up Texas Tech.

From there, the bracket is an open canvas.

The Big East figures to be a gauntlet – with seven or even eight teams in the mix.  The Atlantic 10 and American conferences should place multiple teams in the field; both leagues are deeper than a year ago.  It’s also highly likely that the Pac-12 returns to a more normal five or six bids.

Considering those points, and factoring in some capable at-large mid-majors, the odds of a power conference harnessing eight (or more) bids seems unlikely.  At this point, on paper at least, expect a more balanced bracket come March.

PRESEASON BRACKET PROJECTION

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
MIDWEST REGION Arizona State vs. Illinois
WEST REGION Ole Miss vs. Notre Dame
EAST REGION  NC CENTRAL vs. LIU-BROOKLYN
SOUTH REGION NEW ORLEANS vs. PRAIRIE VIEW AM

MIDWEST Indianapolis   EAST – New York                 
Cleveland Cleveland
1) MICHIGAN STATE 1) KENTUCKY
16) IONA 16) NC CENT / LIU-BROOK 
8) NC State 8) Washington
9) Creighton 9) Florida State
Sacramento Tampa
5) Arizona 5) Baylor
12) HARVARD 12) E. TENNESSEE ST
4) Xavier 4) Villanova
13) LIBERTY 13) VERMONT
Greensboro St. Louis
6) Houston 6) Saint Mary’s
11) Arizona St / Illinois 11) Texas
3) North Carolina 3) Ohio State
14) CHARLESTON 14) BOWLING GREEN
Tampa Greensboro
7) Davidson 7) Auburn
10) Wisconsin 10) Iowa State
2) Florida 2) Duke
15) RADFORD 15) GA SOUTHERN
WEST – Los Angeles SOUTH – Houston
Omaha St. Louis
1) KANSAS 1) LOUISVILLE
16) NO COLORADO 16) NEW ORLEANS / PVAM
8) Marquette 8) Colorado
9) Cincinnati 9) Providence
Sacramento Omaha
5) Purdue 5) MEMPHIS
12) NEW MEXICO ST 12) MISSOURI STATE
4) Virginia 4) Texas Tech
13) MURRAY STATE 13) W. KENTUCKY
Spokane Albany
6) UTAH STATE 6) LSU
11) Ole Miss / Notre Dame 11) Michigan
3) OREGON 3) SETON HALL
14) NORTH DAKOTA ST 14) COLGATE
Spokane Albany
7) Tennessee 7) VCU
10) Dayton 10) Alabama
2) GONZAGA 2) Maryland
15) UC-SANTA BARBARA 15) RADFORD

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN      First 4 OUT Next 4 OUT
Iowa State Ole Miss Georgetown Georgia
Alabama Illinois USC Iowa
Texas Arizona State Oklahoma State South Florida
Michigan Notre Dame Wichita State Mississippi State

TOP SEED LINE: Michigan State is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Kentucky, Louisville and Kansas

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (7): MICHIGAN STATE, Maryland, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois

SEC (7): KENTUCKY, Florida, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss

ACC (7): LOUISVILLE, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, Florida State, Notre Dame

Big East (6): SETON HALL, Villanova, Xavier, Marquette, Providence, Creighton

BIG 12 (5): KANSAS, Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa State, Texas

Pac 12 (5): OREGON, Arizona, Colorado, Washington, Arizona State

American (3): MEMPHIS, Houston, Cincinnati

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU, Davidson, Dayton

West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s

Mountain West (1): UTAH STATE

ONE BID LEAGUES: BOWLING GREEN (MAC), EAST TENNESSEE STATE (SOUTHERN) MISSOURI STATE (MVC), IONA (MAAC), WESTERN KENTUCKY (C-USA), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (SBELT), HARVARD (IVY), NORTHERN COLORADO (BSKY), WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON), NEW ORLEANS (SLND), UC-SANTA BARBARA (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), CHARLESTON (CAA), RADFORD (BSO), NC CENTRAL (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC), VERMONT (AEAST), COLGATE (PAT), LIU-BROOKLYN (NEC), PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.

Monday’s Overreactions: Myles Powell, Florida’s fix and Virginia’s shooting woes

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PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Myles Powell, Seton Hall

Coming off of an ankle injury – the severity of which can probably be debated – Powell went for 37 points in a three-point loss at home against Michigan State. It might have been a loss, but it was still one of the most impressive and entertaining performances that we are going to see this college basketball season.

Powell then followed that up on Sunday with a 26-point performance in a win at Saint Louis, a 3-0 Atlantic 10 team that knocked off the Pirates when they played in Newark last season. All told, Powell after spraining his ankle exactly nine days ago, Powell went out and averaged 31.5 points as the Pirates picked up a solid road win and played well enough to beat one of the three best teams in college basketball.

Not bad.

TEAM OF THE WEEK: Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols picked up the best win of the weekend, as they flew up to Toronto and landed themselves a victory over a Washington team that had impressed everyone when they knocked off Baylor last week. Tennessee made a bunch of threes and Lamonte Turner played well despite struggling to shoot the ball, but the key was the Tennessee frontcourt. Going up against Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels, Tennessee’s overmatched frontline won the day. John Fulkerson had 14 points, six boards, two assists, two steals and two blocks while Yves Pons finished with 15 points and a block of the year candidate on Naz Carter.

I was in on Tennessee in the preseason. I am very in on Tennessee today.

OVERREACTIONS

1. FLORIDA IS REALLY BAD, BUT THEY’RE ALSO FIXABLE

I’m ready for the influx of bad Florida takes today because that’s what happens when a preseason top ten team plays terribly for the first two weeks of the season. I’m going to do my best to avoid being frustrated by people saying that Florida was overhyped because Kerry Blackshear was the last guy to commit, or that Scottie Lewis is overrated as a top ten prospect, or that Mike White is just a bad basketball coach.

Well, the latter may actually have some merit if this thing doesn’t get turned around, but we’re not there yet.

Because the simple truth is that Florida is struggling because they cannot shoot. The Gators are shooting 24.1 percent from three this season. The only guy on the roster shooting better than 28.6 percent from beyond the arc is Keyontae Johnson, and he’s the starting four-man. Andrew Nembhard, a former five-star recruit and Florida’s sophomore starting point guard, is shooting 28.6 percent from the field. Noah Locke is 5-for-22 (22.7%) from three and shooting 9-for-36 (25%) overall. He is playing with the confidence level of eighth grader at a school dance.

This shooting cripples Florida for three reasons:

  1. The Gators are built to play small-ball. Small-ball is entirely ineffective when you are incapable of scoring from the perimeter.
  2. Florida’s inability to score means they can’t set their defense, get into a press or force turnovers. That means they are forced to play every possession in the halfcourt, which is a nightmare for a team designed to play small-ball that can’t make a shot.
  3. The entire reason we believed Florida was going to take a leap forward this season was that they replaced their high-usage, low-efficiency shot-jackers with freshman Tre Mann and sophomores Locke and Nembhard. As it turns out, those three have been high-usage, low-efficiency shot-jackers through four games.

The issue to date has not been Blackshear. He’s averaging 14.5 points and 11 boards as the sole interior presence on a team where defenses have not had to leave the paint yet.

He’s not the problem.

He’s been fine.

The issue is, quite literally, everything else.

2. TENNESSEE IS THE ONLY TEAM IN THE SEC OUTPERFORMING EXPECTATION

The SEC has been the most disappointing conference in major college basketball this season. Florida, obviously, has been a disaster to date. Kentucky owns the second-best win on the season (Michigan State in NYC) when the best win on the season was themselves (Evansville’s upset in Rupp).

Auburn has been fine, but the win over Davidson does not look nearly as good today as it did when it happened. Arkansas has looked good while beating no one. LSU lost at VCU and struggled in wins over Bowling Green and Nicholls State. Alabama has been bad. Vandy and Texas A&M have been about as bad as we expected.

Other than the Vols – and maybe Missouri – no one in the league has been better than we thought they were before the season started.

3. VIRGINIA GAMES ARE GOING TO BE PARTICULARLY UGLY THIS YEAR

There is a certain faction of college basketball fans that believes that Virginia plays the ugliest brand of basketball in the history of the sport, and for the most part, those people just don’t appreciate a good, well-executed offensive possession or the beauty of a shot clock violation.

Usually, I’d push back against these takes. Because usually, Virginia’s offense is ruthlessly efficient, just really so. That’s not really the case this year. Through three games, UVA is shooting just 20 percent from three. There are only five teams in the entire country that are hitting triples at a lower rate, and given that there are no Ty Jeromes, or Kyle Guys, or De’Andre Hunters on this year’s roster, I don’t know how much that’s actually going to improve.

Should I mention that Virginia didn’t allow their 100th point until there was 5:16 left in the second half of their third game of the season?

4. VERMONT IS THE BEST MID-MAJOR TEAM IN THE COUNTRY

The Catamounts went into Carnesseca Arena and knocked off St. John’s on Saturday after. Anthony Lamb hit the game-winner with 1.9 seconds left. It’s the third true road win of the season for John Becker’s club, who also owns victories over St. Bonaventure and Bucknell.

UVM will get two more cracks at high-major opponents in the next two weeks. They’re at Virginia on Tuesday and at Cincinnati on Dec. 3rd. If they can land one of those wins, and if they roll through the America East undefeated, I think there is a real chance that this group can get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Best Bets: Previewing Auburn-Davidson, Baylor-Washington, Texas-Purdue

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As of this publication, the lines for the Friday games were the only ones posted. Games on Saturday and Sunday will be discussed using projections from KenPom.

No. 24 AUBURN vs. DAVIDSON, Fri. 6:00 p.m. (CBSSN)

  • SPREAD: Auburn (-2.5)
  • TOTAL: 144.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Auburn 73.5, Davidson 71
  • KENPOM: Auburn 75, Davidson 72

This has all of the makings of a bet that I love to make in November. Davidson is one of the most well-coached and experienced teams in college basketball, bringing back their top six from last season. That includes Kellan Grady, who is now healthy, and Jon Axel-Gudmundsson. Grady was the Preseason Atlantic 10 Player of the Year last year as a sophomore. Jon-Axel Gudmundsson won the award. This is a top 25 basketball team.

And they’re taking on an Auburn team that lost their three best players on a neutral floor. I’m not sold on J’Von McCormick being the answer to their problems, and I’m not sure that Samir Doughty is going to be able to replace what they lost in Jared Harper or Bryce Brown. I do like Isaac Okoro and I think he’ll give the Wildcats some issues with his athleticism and versatility, but to me this is a pick-em. If you’re telling me I can get points – or a ML that is around +110 – on Davidson, I’m in.

PICK: Davidson (+2.5)

WASHINGTON vs. No. 16 BAYLOR, Fri. 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)

  • SPREAD: Baylor (-5)
  • TOTAL: 137.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Baylor 71.25, Washington 66.25
  • KENPOM: Baylor 71, Washington 66

Washington lost their top four scorers from a season ago and will replace them with a point guard that transferred in from Kentucky (Quade Green) as well as a pair of five-star freshmen. Isaiah Stewart is a monster, but I’m not sold on Jaden McDaniels stepping in and dominating as a freshman. Those two will be going up against a Baylor team with one of the biggest and toughest frontlines in America.

(You’re going to notice trend here.)

But I’m going to be on Baylor. They bring almost everyone back from last year’s 20-win team that went 10-8 in the Big 12, but in their season-opener on Tuesday afternoon, they started three guys – Tristan Clark, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell – that did not play during Big 12 play last season. Clark was injured and the other two sat out due to transfer rules.

Oh, and should I mention that the Bears were second in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage last season while Washington plays a zone? With two freshmen on their frontline?

PICK: Baylor (-5)

ARIZONA STATE vs. COLORADO, Fri. 10:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

  • SPREAD: Colorado (-5.5)
  • TOTAL: 146.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Colorado 76, Arizona State 70.5
  • KENPOM: Colorado 78, Arizona State 72

I really do not have any feel for this game, but considering that it is being played in China and that it is the first game of the season for both teams, I think I lean towards the under here. But that’s it. I’m mostly just interested in figuring out what to make of both of these teams. Colorado brings everyone back from a 23-win team, while Arizona State has a roster with some talent that has done nothing but underperform against Pac-12 competition the last two years.

PICK: Under 146.5

TEXAS at No. 23 PURDUE, Sat. 7:00 p.m. (FS1)

  • KENPOM: Purdue 72, Texas 63

I don’t think that this line is going to open up at Purdue (-9), but if it does, then Texas seems like the easy play. We know they are going to be one of the nation’s best defensive teams, and getting nine points is a lot of points in a game that I think will be played in the high-50s or low-60s. Throw in the fact that Purdue lost their top two scorers from last season and this feels like the line should be closer to 4.5.

PICK: Texas (+9)

FLORIDA STATE at No. 6 FLORIDA, Sun. 1:00 p.m. (ESPN)

  • KENPOM: Florida 69, Florida State 65

The Seminoles are coming off of a loss at Pitt in their season-opener and will take on a Florida team that most people expect to be an SEC title contender that has a chance of winning a national title. I liked Florida State on the road (-4.5) against Pitt, but I do not like the Seminoles on the road in a rivalry game.

PICK: Florida (-4)

ILLINOIS at No. 21 ARIZONA, Sun. 9:00 p.m. (PAC-12)

  • KENPOM: Arizona 76, Illinois 70

This is going to be a nightmare road trip for the Illini, who are playing at Grand Canyon on Friday night and have to follow that up with a visit to Tucson on Sunday night. The Wildcats looked good their first time out, getting 20 points from Zeke Nnaji in a blowout win over Northern Arizona. Illinois got taken to overtime by Nicholls State at home.

PICK: Arizona (-6)

THE REST OF THE TOP 25

BINGHAMTON at No. 1 MICHIGAN STATE (-35); 141, Sun. 7:00 p.m.

Michigan State will be looking to bounce back after a loss in the Champions Classic. I don’t think that foul trouble will be much of an issue in this one.

EASTERN KENTUCKY at No. 2 KENTUCKY (-29.5); 149.5, Fri. 7:00 p.m.

Let’s see what Part II of the Tyrese Maxey Show has to offer.

UNC GREENSBORO at No. 3 KANSAS (-16); 144.5, Fri. 9:00 p.m.

It sounds like there’s a chance that Isaiah Moss plays in this one, and I fully expect the Jayhawks to bounce back from an ugly loss in a big way. I know UNCG is good, but Kansas I think Kansas is the best bet for a heavy favorite this weekend.

COLORADO STATE at No. 4 DUKE (-24); 146, Fri. 7:00 p.m.

Niko Medved is a good coach, Duke is built on their defense and the Baby Blue Devils will be playing their first game in Cameron. Let’s see if Coach K can work through some of these offensive issues against someone that isn’t a title contender.

YOUNGSTOWN STATE at No. 5 LOUISVILLE (-26); 150, Sun. 2:00 p.m.

Jordan Nwora was terrific in the opener. Now that the Cards aren’t playing ACC teams, let’s see if they can find a way to get their point guard play up to snuff.

RHODE ISLAND at No. 7 MARYLAND (-12); 146, Sat. 9:00 p.m.

Rhode Island is probably a top five team in the Atlantic 10 this season, and that actually carries some weight this year. The Terps struggled early with Holy Cross. I think the Rams make this a game.

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF at No. 8 GONZAGA (-32); 140, Sat. 8:00 p.m.

Gonzaga is banged up and thin in their backcourt. They should still roll.

No. 9 NORTH CAROLINA (-22.5) at UNC WILMINGTON; 161.5, Fri. 7:00 p.m.

Cole Anthony will take centerstage once again, this time playing his first true road game as a collegian. Credit to Roy Williams, who is not afraid to play in-state mid-major competition in their building.

JAMES MADISON at No. 11 VIRGINIA (-24); 126, Sun. 6:00 p.m.

Virginia just gave up 34 points to Syracuse. KenPom has JMU’s team total at 51. I think if I’m going to bet this game, I’ll bet that under.

STONY BROOK at No. 12 SETON HALL (-21); 143, Sat. 2:30 p.m.

The Myles Powell Show heads into game No. 2. Seton Hall rolled in the opener despite not having Kevin Willard on the sideline.

BETHUNE-COOKMAN at No. 13 TEXAS TECH (-28); 146, Sat. 8:00 p.m.

Texas Tech looked better than I expected in the opener for a team that is as young as they are. I’ll be very curious to see what Jahmi’us Ramsey’s progression looks like this season.

UIC at No. 14 MEMPHIS (-20); 156.5, Fri. 7:00 p.m.

James Wiseman will be back in action after popping off for 28 points in his debut.

BOISE STATE at No. 15 OREGON (-11); 139, Sat. 11:00 p.m.

Payton Pritchard popped off for a monster game in Oregon’s opener against Fresno State. They continue their tour of the Mountain West with a date against Boise State.

UMASS-LOWELL at No. 18 OHIO STATE (-24); 144, Sun. 4:00 p.m.

The Buckeyes went eight minutes without scoring to open up their season at home against Cincinnati. I don’t think they’ll have that issue against UMass-Lowell.

SIENA at No. 19 XAVIER (-20); 143, Fri. 7:00 p.m.

I really like Siena in this game. I have a lot of respect for Carmen Maciariello and his ability to coach, and the truth is that Siena might have the best player on the floor in Jalen Pickett. They’re not getting 20-pieced.

BOWLING GREEN at No. 22 LSU (-13); 156, Fri. 8:00 p.m.

I’m high on this LSU team, and I think that they are undervalued heading into this season. I’ll lay the 13 points.

NORTH TEXAS at No. 25 VCU (-16.5); 134, Fri. 7:00 p.m.

North Texas is bringing back four starters. VCU still can’t shoot and wins with their defense. I think Grant McCasland and the Mean Green can hang in there and keep this respectable.

The 14 bold predictions that are guaranteed to come true

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PREVIEW SZN is over.

We’ve given you the Preseason Top 25. We’ve given you the Preseason All-American teams. We’ve told you who can actually win a national title, and why there are a handful of teams who you need to bet on to do exactly that.

We ranked the top 100 players and then broke it all down by position – guards, wings, bigs and the mid-majors. We looked at this year’s breakout stars, as well as the x-factors and fatal flaws for every team in the top 25.

We’ve given you more content than you can handle.

So it’s time to double-down.

Here are 14 bold predictions that are guaranteed to happen.

KANSAS WINS THE NATIONAL TITLE

I know this isn’t exactly bold, but I wanted to get this on the record before the season begins. Given the injuries that Michigan State is currently dealing with, the youth movements on the rosters of Duke and Kentucky and the point guard question marks that exist on Louisville’s roster, I think that Kansas is probably the best team in the country right now. I think that after the Champions Classic comes to an end on Tuesday night, that will become the national consensus.

So let’s get out in front of it.

The Jayhawks win it all.

And Bill Self lives to coach another day.

NO ACC TEAMS GET TO THE FINAL FOUR

The ACC is weird this year. I think there is a very clear-cut top four in the league – Duke, North Carolina, Louisville and Virginia. But all four of those teams are dealing with some serious question marks. Virginia is replacing three NBA players and integrating a number of new pieces into their system. (More on them in a minute.) North Carolina lost their top five players from last season and is heading into this season built around Cole Anthony. Recent high-volume one-and-done guards have not had all that much success at the collegiate level. I’ve spent too much time talking about Duke and some of their flaws this season, so I’ll leave it at this: I find it hard to see how they are going to be able to field a team that can simultaneously be good defensively and capable of being elite offensively.

That leaves Louisville, and while I love Jordan Nwora and Chris Mack, I tend to err on the side of caution when dealing with teams that have question marks at the point guard spot. Last week, Louisville started Darius Perry – not Fresh Kimble – at the point guard spot while David Johnson continues rehabbing a shoulder injury. That’s not ideal.

TEXAS FINISHES SECOND IN THE BIG 12

Kansas is very clearly the best team in the Big 12, but after that, things open up. Baylor and Iowa State are good but not great. I’m not sold on Texas Tech. (See below.) After that, the next team in the league that’s worth talking about is … Oklahoma State? I think?

Put another way, this is does not shaping up like a season where there are going to be many contenders to the Big 12 crown. That brings me to Texas. When it comes to on-the-court stuff, I think we can safely assume that the Longhorns are going to end up being one of the best defensive teams in the country. That has been their strength since Day 1 of the Shaka Smart era, and this offseason they hired Luke Yaklich, the mastermind behind Michigan’s emergence as one of college basketball’s elite defensive forces. They are going to guard the hell out of you.

Where Texas has struggled is with offensive efficiency, and I think they are going to be better this year. For starters, they have some shooting on the roster. Jase Febres shot 37.2 percent from three last season. Courtney Ramey shot 38.6 percent from three. Matt Coleman is at least dangerous enough that he has to be guarded out to the three-point line, while Kamaka Hepa should be in like for a big bump in minutes as a sophomore. Throw in the fact that Andrew Jones is back and looks to be in line for some significant minutes. Throw in bigs Jericho Sims, Kai Jones and Will Baker, and there is a lot to like.

But I think there’s a narrative here that needs to be discussed. Smart built a culture at VCU. He took over a program that ran itself and turned it into something special. He had guys that stayed for four years, that loved the university, that loved their teammates and that were 22 year old men by the time that they left. This will be the first time at Texas that he has had this many players with this much sweat equity in his program. I don’t think that’s something we can overlook.

BOTH TEXAS TECH AND VIRGINIA FALL SHORT OF SWEET 16

Virginia’s issues are obvious. This is a program that lost three NBA players off of last year’s roster. That can be mitigated at a place that churns out one-and-done talent. That’s not easy to navigate at a place that has to develop pros, that relies on roster continuity to win. Ask Villanova. They entered last NCAA tournament as a No. 6 seed, and I think that Virginia might end up in that same boat this year.

The problems at Texas Tech are a bit different. Chris Beard is no stranger to turning over a roster and building from scratch, but the key to making that happen is buy-in. The word out of Lubbock is that has not been as easy this season as it was last season. The key, beyond vets like Davide Moretti and Chris Clarke taking control of the locker room, is Jahmi’us Ramsey. He is the big, versatile combo-guard that Beard loves. He, in theory, should be this year’s Keenan Evans or Jarrett Culver. As of today, I’m not convinced that will become a reality.

THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO FINAL FOUR TEAMS THAT ARE FIVE SEEDS OR LOWER

The teams at the top of the polls this season just aren’t all that intimidating. Michigan State is supposed to be the veteran-laden team, but without Josh Langford, just three scholarship players are upper-classmen, and one of them – Kyle Ahrens – is already banged up. Kentucky’s frontcourt consists of E.J. Montgomery, Bucknell transfer Nate Sestina and the already-injured Nick Richards. Duke’s fit is a concern, so is Louisville’s point guard play. Virginia is young. Villanova is younger. Gonzaga has two guards on the roster and their best big, Killian Tillie, is perpetually hurt. Florida’s rise to prominence is built around a 23-year old from Virginia Tech. Maryland is Maryland.

Put another way, there is a way to poke holes in seemingly every single team in the top 25. No one is all that good, which means that the teams at the top of the bracket are not going to be all that much better than the teams at the bottom of the bracket. Upsets and Cinderellas will shine this March.

AT LEAST SEVEN BIG EAST TEAMS GET TO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

The Big East is the most interesting league in the country this season. There are three teams that can legitimately be called the favorite to win the regular season title today – Seton Hall, Villanova and Xavier. The best player in the conference, Markus Howard, isn’t on any of those three teams, and while Marquette lost the Hausers, they could realistically win the league title. Providence has Alpha Diallo, a talented sophomore class and a grad transfer to take over the point guard spot. Gerogetown brings back their backcourt of Mac McClung and James Akinjo and pairs them with Omer Yurtseven. Creighton has arguably the best overall backcourt in a league that has Howard and Myles Powell.

Put another way, there are seven teams in this conference that deserve top 25 consideration, and there’s no clear-cut answer to who is the best. I think all seven will get a bid to the tournament.

OREGON EARNS A NO. 2 SEED

I’m very high on Oregon this season. I think they are going to win the Pac-12, and given how strong their non-conference schedule is, winning the Pac-12 should be enough to get them at least into the discussion for a No. 1 seed. They play Memphis in Portland. They get Houston at home. They open up with Seton Hall in the Battle 4 Atlantis and, if they win, draw Gonzaga in the semifinals. They play at Michigan. They’ll be battle-tested for league play.

LSU WINS A SHARE OF THE SEC TITLE.

On paper, I think LSU is one of the most underrated teams in the country. Much of it depends on how well Trendon Watford adapts to the collegiate level and whether or not Will Wade can navigate this roster through the rough waters of an NCAA investigation, but in terms of talent on a roster, the Tigers can more or less match Florida and Kentucky. The difference is in their league schedule. The Tigers play Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama and Arkansas twice. They do get Florida twice as well, but they only play Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee once each. That’s a favorable schedule for the reigning SEC regular season champions.

MARYLAND FINISHES OUTSIDE THE TOP FIVE IN THE BIG TEN

On paper, Maryland should be a top ten team. But when has a Maryland team lived up to or exceeded expectations under Mark Turgeon? If Anthony Cowan avoids a six-week swoon like he had last season, if he can go an entire season playing like an All-American, and if the Terps’ sophomore class – Jalen Smith, Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala, Ricky Lindo – all take a step forward, Maryland will be one of the best teams in the Big Ten. That’s a lot of ‘ifs’ for one roster.

MEMPHIS ENTERS THE NCAA TOURNAMENT AS A SIX SEED OR LOWER

I’ve said for months that we should have some real concerns about whether or not this Memphis team is among the nation’s elite. That’s what happens when you put seven freshmen on a roster and none of those freshmen are Zion Williams or R.J. Barrett.

To be clear, I think the Tigers will be good. I can see them winning 23 or 24 games before the postseason starts. I think that they have the talent to make a run in March possible. Hell, I’m holding a 50-1 ticket on their national title odds. But with this much youth and a schedule that includes just one top 25 opponent on KenPom (No. 19 Tennessee) and five sub-250 opponents, I think getting a top four seed is going to be tough.

Oh, and should I mention that we haven’t actually seen James Wiseman play for the Tigers yet? He missed their overseas tour and both exhibition games.

HOUSTON WINS THE AMERICAN

Everything is lining up for the Cougars to be the best team in the AAC once again. Memphis is young. Cincinnati is undergoing a coaching change. South Florida’s best big man just had his season come to an end. Wichita State and UConn both look like they’re a year away from hitting their peak.

Houston?

They just found out they’re going to have Quentin Grimes, a former top ten recruit and McDonald’s All-American, eligible for this season. That’ll do.

HARVARD FINISHES THE SEASON WITH NO MORE THAN THREE LOSSES

The Crimson look like they’re going to be the runaway favorites in the Ivy League this year. They bring back basically everything from a team that went 10-4 in the Ivy and came a loss at Yale away from getting to the NCAA tournament. They also will, potentially, add a healthy Seth Towns, an Ivy Player of the Year candidate that missed all of last season with an injury. Their non-conference schedule, frankly, sucks, and given the fact that Fairfield is on the opposite side of their bracket in the Orlando Invitational, it seems very unlikely that they will lose more than two games in that event.

SAINT MARY’S WINS THE WCC

Gonzaga is a bit of a mess right now. Their backcourt is, essentially, a pair of grad transfers – Admon Gilder and Ryan Wooldrige – now that Brock Ravet has taken a leave of absence. Killian Tillie seems to always be banged up, and beyond that, they are young. Saint Mary’s has the best player in the WCC in Jordan Ford. They have size (Aaron Menzies), athleticism (Malik Fitts) and plenty of shooting. They are coached by Randy Bennett, the only man since Mark Few’s first season as a head coach in 1999-2000 to beat Gonzaga to a WCC regular season title. It all adds up.

THREE ATLANTIC 10 TEAMS WIN A TOURNAMENT GAME

The Atlantic 10 is loaded this year, particularly at the top of the league. I think there’s an argument to be made that three different teams can be put into the preseason top 25 — VCU, Davidson and Dayton. It’s going to take some work in the non-conference from the league as a whole to ensure that all three are in a position to get at-large bids, but I do think that all three are good enough to win at least one game