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College Basketball 2019-2020 Preseason Top 25

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There is so much that is going to happen between now and the time that next season starts that it almost seems foolish to publish a preseason top 25 today.

But we’re doing it anyway!

A couple of notes: Who is going to head to the NBA is very much in the air right now. There are still a number of freshmen that have yet to announce where they are playing their college ball. The transfer market has barely heated up. For decisions that are up in the air, you’ll see an asterisk next to their name. We’re making predictions on what certain players will do and ranking based off of them. 

So with all that said, here is the preseason top 25.

1. MICHIGAN STATE

  • WHO’S GONE: Matt McQuaid, Kenny Goins, Nick Ward
  • WHO’S BACK: Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman, Joshua Langford, Aaron Henry, Kyle Ahrens, Gabe Brown, Foster Loyer, Marcus Bingham, Thomas Kithier
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Rocket Watts, Malik Hall, Julius Marble
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Cassius Winston, Joshua Langford, Kyle Ahrens, Aaron Henry, Xavier Tillman

2. KENTUCKY

  • WHO’S GONE: P.J. Washington, Keldon Johnson, Tyler Herro, Reid Travis
  • WHO’S BACK: E.J. Montgomery*, Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickly, Nick Richards*
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Kahlil Whitney, Tyrese Maxey, Keion Brooks, Johnny Juzang, Dontaie Allen, Nate Sestina
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Tyrese Maxey, Ashton Hagans, Kahlil Whitney, Keion Brooks, E.J. Montgomery

3. DUKE

  • WHO’S GONE: Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish
  • WHO’S BACK: Tre Jones, Marques Bolden*, Alex O’Connell, Jack White, Javin DeLaurier*, Jordan Goldwire, Joey Baker
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Vernon Carey, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, Cassius Stanley
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Tre Jones, Alex O’Connell, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, Vernon Carey

4. VILLANOVA

  • WHO’S GONE: Eric Paschall, Phil Booth, Jahvon Quinerly
  • WHO’S BACK: Jermaine Samuels, Cole Swider, Saddiq Bey, Collin Gillespie, Dhamir Cosby-Rountree, Brandon Slater
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Bryan Antoine, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Justin Moore, Eric Dixon
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Collin Gillespie, Bryan Antoine, Saddiq Bey, Jermaine Samuels, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

5. LOUISVILLE

  • WHO’S GONE: Christen Cunningham, Khwan Fore, Akoy Agau
  • WHO’S BACK: Jordan Nwora*, Dwayne Sutton, Ryan McMahon, Steve Enoch*, Malik Williams, Darius Perry
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Samuell Williamson, Jaelyn Withers, Josh Nickelberry, David Johnson, Aidan Igiehom, Quinn Slazinski
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Darius Perry, Samuell Williamson, Dwayne Sutton, Jordan Nwora, Malik Williams

6. MARYLAND

  • WHO’S GONE: Bruno Fernando
  • WHO’S BACK: Anthony Cowan*, Jalen Smith, Serrel Smith Jr., Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, Ricky Lindo
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Chol Marial, Makhi Mitchell, Makhel Mitchell, Donta Scott
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Anthony Cowan, Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, Ricky Lindo, Jalen Smith

7. KANSAS

  • WHO’S GONE: Lagerald Vick, Silvio De Sousa*, Dedric Lawson, K.J. Lawson, Charlie Moore
  • WHO’S BACK: Devon Dotson*, Quentin Grimes*, Ochai Agbaji, Udoka Azubuike, Marcus Garrett, Mitch Lightfoot, David McCormack
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Isaac McBride, Christian Braun
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes, Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, Udoka Azubuike

8. VIRGINIA

  • WHO’S GONE: De’Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, Jack Salt
  • WHO’S BACK: Braxton Key, Mamadi Diakite*, Jay Huff, Kihei Clark
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Casey Morsell, Tomas Woldetensae, Kadin Shedrick, Justin McKoy
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Kihei Clark, Casey Morsell, Braxton Key, Mamadi Diakite, Jay Huff

9. MEMPHIS

  • WHO’S GONE: Jeremiah Martin, Kyvon Davenport, Mike Parks Jr., Raynere Thornton, Kareem Brewton, Antwann Jones Jr.
  • WHO’S BACK: Tyler Harris, Alex Lomax, Isaiah Maurice
  • WHO’S COMING IN: James Wiseman, Rayjon Tucker, D.J. Jeffries, Malcolm Dandridge, Damian Baugh, Lance Thomas, Precious Achiuwa, Boogie Ellis
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Boogie Ellis, Rayjon Tucker, D.J. Jeffries, Precious Achiuwa, James Wiseman

10. TEXAS TECH

  • WHO’S GONE: Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney, Tariq Owens, Brandone Francis, Norense Odiase, Khavon Moore
  • WHO’S BACK: Chris Beard, Davide Moretti, Kyler Edwards, Deshawn Corprew, Andrei Savrasov
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Jahmius Ramsey, Chris Clarke, T.J. Holyfield, Kevin McCullar, Khalid Thomas, Russel Tchewa, Terrence Shannon
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Jahmius Ramsey, Davide Moretti, Deshawn Corprew, T.J. Holyfield, Chris Clarke

11. GONZAGA

  • WHO’S GONE: Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke, Josh Perkins, Zach Norvell, Geno Crandall, Jeremy Jones
  • WHO’S BACK: Killian Tillie*
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Admon Gilder, Drew Timme, Oumar Ballo, Brock Ravet, Anton Watson, Martynas Arlauskas, Pavel Zahkarov
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Brock Ravet, Admon Gilder, Corey Kispert, Killian Tillie, Filip Petrusev

12. SETON HALL

  • WHO’S GONE: Michael Nzei
  • WHO’S BACK: Myles Powell*, Myles Cale, Quincy McKnight, Taurean Thompson, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Ikey Obiagu
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Tyrese Samuel, Dashawn Davis
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Quincy McKnight, Myles Powell, Myles Cale, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Ikey Obiagu

13. NORTH CAROLINA

  • WHO’S GONE: Coby White, Nassir Little, Luke Maye, Cam Johnson, Kenny Williams, Seventh Woods
  • WHO’S BACK: Leaky Black, Garrison Brooks, Brandon Robinson
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Cole Anthony, Armando Bacot, Jeremiah Francis, Anthony Harris, Christian Keeling, Justin Pierce
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Cole Anthony, Leaky Black, Brandon Robinson, Armando Bacot, Garrison Brooks

14. ARIZONA

  • WHO’S GONE: Justin Coleman, Ryan Luther
  • WHO’S BACK: Brandon Randolph*, Dylan Smith, Chase Jeter, Brandon Williams, Alex Barcello, Ira Lee, Devonaire Doutrive
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Nico Mannion, Josh Green, Max Hazzard, Terry Armstrong, Christian Koloko, Zeke Nnaji
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Nico Mannion, Josh Green, Brandon Randolph, Ira Lee, Chase Jeter

15. UTAH STATE

  • WHO’S GONE: Quinn Taylor
  • WHO’S BACK: Sam Merrill, Neemias Queta*, Diogo Brito, Brock Miller, Abel Porter
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Alphonso Anderson, Liam McChesney, Sean Bairstow
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Diogo Brito, Abel Porter, Sam Merrill, Brock Miller, Neemias Queta

16. SAINT MARY’S

  • WHO’S GONE: Jordan Hunter
  • WHO’S BACK: Jordan Ford, Malik Fitts, Tommy Kuhse, Tanner Krebs, Dan Fotu, Jock Perry
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Alex Ducas, Kyle Bowen
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Jordan Ford, Tommy Kuhse, Tanner Krebs, Malik Fitts, Jock Perry

17. XAVIER

  • WHO’S GONE: Ryan Welage, Zach Hankins, Kyle Castlin, Elias Harden
  • WHO’S BACK: Quentin Goodin*, Naji Marshall, Paul Scruggs*, Tyrique Jones*
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Kyky Tandy, Dahmir Bishop, Zach Freemantle, Jason Carter, Daniel Ramsey, Dieonte Miles
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Quentin Goodin, Paul Scruggs, Naji Marshall, Jason Carter, Tyrique Jones

18. CREIGHTON

  • WHO’S GONE: Sam Froling, Kaleb Joseph, Connor Cashaw
  • WHO’S BACK: Davion Mintz*, Ty-Shon Alexander, Mitchell Ballock, Martin Krampelj*, Jacob Epperson, Damien Jefferson, Marcus Zegarowski
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Shereef Mitchell
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Davion Mintz, Marcus Zegarowski, Ty-Shon Alexander, Mitchell Ballock, Martin Krampelj

19. COLORADO

  • WHO’S GONE: Namon Wright
  • WHO’S BACK: McKinley Wright IV, Tyler Bey, D’shawn Schwartz, Lucas Siewert, Evan Battey, Shane Gatling, Daylen Kountz
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Maddox Daniels
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: McKinley Wright IV, Tyler Bey, D’shawn Schwartz, Lucas Siewert, Shane Gatling

20. AUBURN

  • WHO’S GONE: Bryce Brown, Malik Dunbar, Horace Spencer, Chuma Okeke*
  • WHO’S BACK: Jared Harper*, Samir Doughty, J’Von McCormick, Danjel Purifoy, Anfernee McLemore, Austin Wiley
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Isaac Okoro, Tyrell Jones, Jaylin Williams, Babatunde Akingbola, Allen Flanigan, Jamal Johnson
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Jared Harper, J’Von McCormick, Samir Doughty, Danjel Purifoy, Anfernee McLemore

21. TENNESSEE

  • WHO’S GONE: Admiral Schofield, Kyle Alexander, Jordan Bone*, Grant Williams*
  • WHO’S BACK: Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Yves Pons, Derrick Walker Jr., John Fulkerson, D.J. Burns, Jalen Johnson
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Josiah James, Drew Pember, Davonte Gaines
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Josiah James, Yves Pons, John Fulkerson

22. HOUSTON

  • WHO’S GONE: Corey Davis, Breaon Brady, Galen Robinson
  • WHO’S BACK: Dejon Jerreau, Armoni Brooks*, Cedrick Alley, Brison Gresham, Fabian White, Chris Harris, Nate Hinton
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Caleb Mills, Justin Gorham
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Dejon Jerreau, Armoni Brooks, Nate Hinton, Fabian White, Brison Gresham

23. VCU

  • WHO’S GONE: Michael Gilmore
  • WHO’S BACK: Marcus Evans, Isaac Vann, Deriante Jenkins, Marcus Santos-Silva, Sean Mobley, Vince Williams, Mike’L Simms, P.J. Byrd, Malik Crawford
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Jarren McAlister
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Marcus Evans, Isaac Vann, Deriante Jenkins, Sean Mobley, Marcus Santos-Silva

24. OHIO STATE

  • WHO’S GONE: C.J. Jackson, Keyshawn Woods
  • WHO’S BACK: Kaleb Wesson*, Andre Wesson, Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington, Kyle Young, Justin Aherns, Musa Jallow, Jaedon LeDee
  • WHO’S COMING IN: D.J. Carton, Alonzo Gaffney, EJ Liddel, Ibrahima Diallo, CJ Walker
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: C.J. Walker, Duane Washington Jr., Luther Muhammad, Andre Wesson, Kaleb Wesson*

25. DAVIDSON

  • WHO’S GONE: Nathan Ekwu, Dusan Kovacevic
  • WHO’S BACK: Kellan Grady, Jon Axel Gudmundson, Luka Brajkovic, Luke Frampton, Kishawn Pritchett, Carter Collins, David Czerapowics, Bates Jones
  • WHO’S COMING IN: Hyunjung Lee, David Kristensen
  • PROJECTED STARTERS: Kellan Grady, Jon Axel Gudmundson, Luke Frampton, Kishawn Pritchett, Luka Brajkovic

Iowa’s Jordan Bohannon could miss 2019-20 season following hip surgery

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Jordan Bohannon is scheduled to undergo hip surgery on Wednesday morning and is in danger of missing the entirety of the 2019-20 season.

Bohannon, who is Iowa’s all-time leading three-point shooter, has been playing with the injury for at least a year. The recovery time is somewhere before five and nine months, he said, and if he is not back to 100 percent by the time preseason rolls around, he may redshirt and play in 2020-21 as a fifth-year senior.

“I want a shot at playing, but I’ve been hurt so much these past couple years, I just want to take some time and get my body right,” Bohannon told the Des Moines Register. “Especially having just one year left, I want to make sure I’m 100% going into the season for once.”

As a junior, Bohannon averaged 11.6 points and 3.4 assists — down from 13.5 points and 5.4 assists as a sophomore — but still managed to find a way to be one of the most clutch players in college hoops. If he cannot play next season, it would be a massive loss for the Hawkeyes.

“This is an unfortunate setback for Jordan, but he will work hard during his rehab and is expected to make a full recovery,” said head coach Fran McCaffery. “He has the support of his teammates and coaches, and we look forward to having a healthy Jordan back when he is given clearance from our medical staff.”

Monday Overreactions: Recapping first weekend; looking ahead to Final Four

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FIRST WEEKEND MVP: Payton Pritchard, Oregon

Oregon’s point guard was the best player on the floor for the Ducks in both of their games as the Pac-12 tournament champions became the only team seeded lower than fifth to get to the second weekend of the tournament. In wins over Wisconsin and UC Irvine, Pritchard averaged 18.5 points, 7.5 assists and 4.5 boards while also sparking late runs that turned close games into blowouts.

And frankly, Pritchard has been terrific for a month at this point. He’s averaging 19.0 points and 7.0 assists over his last five games and has looked like one of the best point guards in all of college basketball as Oregon has reeled off a ten game winning streak, eight of which have come on the road or on neutral courts.

ALL-FIRST WEEKEND TEAM

CARSEN EDWARDS, Purdue: After putting up 26 points for the Boilermakers in the first round of the tournament, Edwards followed that up with 42 point explosion against Villanova in the second round, the most points scored in an NCAA tournament game since 2004. In total, Purdue has scored 148 points in two games in this even, and Edwards and 68 of them.

NASSIR LITTLE, North Carolina: Little averaged 19.5 points in the first two games of his first (and only?) NCAA tournament. We wrote a column yesterday on why that is so important for the Tar Heels.

ZION WILLIAMSON, Duke: Williamson was, as you might expect, the best player for Duke over the course of the first weekend. He finished with 25 points and three boards in the opening round win over North Dakota State and followed that up with 32 points, 11 boards and four assists in the win over UCF.

BRANDON CLARKE, Gonzaga: Clarke didn’t do much in Gonzaga’s first round win over Fairleigh Dickinson because he didn’t need to do much. But in a second round date with a Baylor team that actually showed up and gave the Zags a fight, Clarke put together one of the best performances in the tournament this season: 36 points, eight boards, five blocks, three assists and two steals.

MFIONDU KABENGELE, Florida State: How many teams can say that their best player comes off of the bench? That’s the case for Florida State and Kabengele, who was simply terrific in two wins this weekend. He had 21 points and 10 boards against UVM and followed that up with 22 points, seven boards and three blocks in a blowout win over Ja Morant and Murray State.

MOST IMPRESSIVE TEAM: Texas Tech

Every one of the top two seeds got pushed at some point in the first weekend of the tournament. Virginia and North Carolina trailed at the half of their first round games. Duke came a couple of inches away from losing to UCF. Gonzaga was pushed by Baylor in the second round. Tennessee nearly blew not one, but two huge leads. Kentucky was in a dogfight with Wofford. Michigan State nearly lost to Bradley while Florida made it difficult for Michigan to get to the Sweet 16.

Texas Tech, however, didn’t really have those problems. Northern Kentucky kept it close for 15 minutes before Jarrett Culver went nuts and the Red Raiders ran away with it. Buffalo had one run late in the first half that seemed like it was going to make the most intriguing matchup of Sunday’s second round action worth watching, but that only last about five minutes.

This Texas Tech team has a real shot to make a run through Anaheim to get to Minneapolis. They are the nation’s best defensive team, but with the way they have been shooting the rock of late, they are also a threat to put up 90 points on any given opponent. On a weekend where every other title contender was pushed, Tech cruised, and that should tell you something.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: The Big East

So it turns out the Big East was pretty bad after all.

Their run in the NCAA tournament ended on Saturday evening, with Carsen Edwards dropping 42 points in a rout that saw Purdue lead 59-24 at one point. It was an embarrassment, really, but one that we all probably should have seen coming.

Villanova won the Big East regular season title, but it never felt like they actually were trying to win. They lost five of their last eight regular season games and only managed to take home the league title because Marquette, the only other team in the league that we thought was any good, lost their last four games. That same Marquette team was run out of the first round by Murray State, who looked every bit the part of a mid-major in their loss to Florida State on Saturday.

There’s more.

Villanova beat Seton Hall in the Big East tournament title game, and the Pirates got drubbed by 16 points by Wofford in the first round. The only other Big East team to get into the tournament was St. John’s, and they got smoked in a play-in game by an Arizona State team that proceeded to lose to Buffalo by 17.

The league should be better with the amount of talent that they have coming back.

And they’re going to need to be.

Because this was not the kind of season that the conference will want to be known for.

FIVE OVERREACTIONS MOVING FORWARD

1. A DISMAL FIRST WEEKEND SETS US UP FOR THE PERFECT FINISH TO THE TOURNAMENT

That first weekend sucked.

We got a thriller with Duke and UCF on Sunday, Maryland played a couple of barn-burners against Belmont and LSU and Tennessee’s inability to protect a lead made for a couple of interesting games, but there wasn’t a true buzzer-beater in the first 52 games of the NCAA tournament. All of the Cinderellas have seen their carriages turn into pumpkins unless, of course, you consider No. 12-seed Oregon — who was a top 15 team in the preseason, reached the 2017 Final Four and is currently in their third Sweet 16 in the last four years — a Cinderella.

What we have right now is a tournament that still features all four No. 1 seeds, all four No. 2 seeds and all four No. 3 seeds. One of the two No. 4 seeds that was knocked out get sent home by a No. 5 seed. This has only happened once before in the NCAA tournament, in 2009, and that was the year that Tyler Hansbrough and North Carolina cruised to the national title.

So yeah, the first weekend of the tournament sucked.

But what that means is that the final 15 games of this event are set up to be absolutely magical.

Think about it like this: The only two teams in the Sweet 16 that weren’t considered top 16 teams by the selection committee on Selection Sunday were both preseason top 15 teams. If you were going to build the perfect 16 team tournament from scratch, the only change that anyone would make is dropping Oregon for someone, but I’m not sure that the Ducks, given the way that they have been playing of late, aren’t actually a top 16 team in college basketball right now.

I’ve always said the ideal NCAA tournament has upsets early and chalk late. We didn’t have the upsets this year, but we do have the chalk.

So be ready. Every game from here on out is going to be a heavy-weight fight.

2. THE UCF PERFORMANCE SAID MORE ABOUT THE MATCHUP THEN IT DID DUKE

I tried to warn you guys on Sunday morning.

UCF was the perfect matchup for this Duke team. They are traditionally a really good defensive team that has big, athletic wings to guard Duke’s lottery picks and one of the world’s 40 largest humans to stand at the rim and make it difficult for R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson to finish. They also have a bunch of shot-makers on their perimeter, and all they needed to do to keep this thing close was for one of Aubrey Dawkins or B.J. Taylor to get into a rhythm while Tacko Fall stayed out of foul trouble.

Dawkins went off.

Fall stayed out of foul trouble for the most part.

And the end result was that Duke should have been knocked out of the NCAA tournament.

They are incredibly lucky to still be alive in this event, and I don’t think that they are going to face a team that will be able to challenge them the way that UCF did until the Final Four.

Look, we’ve known what the key to beating Duke is all season long. You need to pack in your defense, you need size at the rim and you need to be willing to let Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire shoot as many threes as they want to shoot. There aren’t many team that actually have the players to execute that game-plan as well as UCF did.

Duke certainly isn’t unbeatable, but this was the bullet they needed to dodge.

And they did.

3. THE BEST SPOT TO BE NEXT WEEKEND IS …

  1. KANSAS CITY: The North Carolina-Auburn matchup has a chance to be one of the most entertaining games in the history of college basketball — if you like run-and-gun hoops, this is for you — while a Sunday evening matchup between UNC and Kentucky is very much in the cards.
  2. ANAHEIM: This is the most unpredictable region left in the field. Texas Tech and Michigan might be the two best defensive teams left in the tournament, and they will be battling it out for a spot in the Elite 8 in what might as well be a street fight. On the other side of the bracket, we get a rematch from last year’s Sweet 16, when Florida State upset Gonzaga. Is this the revenge game?
  3. WASHINGTON D.C.: I have a sneaking suspicion that Duke is going to have a pretty easy time making their way through this region, but remember: Virginia Tech has already beaten the Blue Devils this season, and they did it without Justin Robinson. On the other side of the bracket, LSU has somehow morphed into a team of destiny, and they will face off with Michigan State in a battle between two of the best point guards in the country in Cassius Winston and Tremont Waters.
  4. LOUISVILLE: Virginia-Oregon is a battle between two really good teams, but there’s a real chance that game goes under the total of 118.5. On the other side of the bracket is Purdue-Tennessee, and as good as both of those teams are, that matchup just doesn’t have the pop of some of the others. That said, should this turn into a Virginia-Tennessee Elite 8 matchup, there’s a chance that ends up being the weekend’s best game.

The fact that Louisville is fourth on this list should tell you all you need to know about just how good the games are this weekend.

4. AN ALL-ACC FINAL FOUR CAN STILL HAPPEN

We’ll dive into this more during the week, but the chance of getting a Final Four that features Duke (or Virginia Tech), Virginia, North Carolina and Florida State is a very real possibility. The biggest reason for that is that three of the No. 1 seeds are from the conference. They’re obviously, then, the favorites to get to the final weekend out of their region.

But the other part of this is that Florida State seems like a good bet to knock off Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.

I’ll have a full breakdown on why later in the week.

5. AND YOUR FINAL FOUR IS …

My Final Four is still alive! Duke vs. Texas Tech and Virginia vs. North Carolina.

Sunday’s NCAA tournament recap: Duke, Tennessee survive; chalk thrives

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PLAYER OF THE DAY: Zion Williamson, Duke

On a night where Duke looked like they were ready to see their season come to an end, Zion Williamson made just enough plays to keep the Blue Devils close enough to get lucky at the end.

The big fella finished with 32 points, 11 boards and four assists in the 77-76 Sunday evening win, scoring the and-one with 14 seconds left that led to the offensive rebound that R.J. Barrett’s game-winning put-back. This was anything-but a quintessential Duke performance. It was actually precisely the kind of game that Duke should have lost, but I’ll get to that at the bottom of this column.

TEAM OF THE DAY: Oregon Ducks

Payton Pritchard finished with 18 points and seven assists, the Ducks made 13 threes and, over the course of the final 12 minutes of the game, outscored UC Irvine 38-17 en route to a 73-54 win and a spot in the Sweet 16. The Ducks are the only team to make it to the second weekend of the tournament as anything other than a top five seed, but there’s an argument to make that they are actually a top 16 team at this point in the season. They’ve now won 10 straight games, and the last eight of them have come on the road or on neutral courts. It’s been a wild ride, and it’s not done yet.

GAME OF THE DAY: Duke 77, UCF 76

It was a thriller in Columbia, S.C., on Sunday night, one that we wrote about here and here (and down at the bottom of this column) and that ended like this:

ONIONS OF THE DAY: Grant Williams, Tennessee

Tennessee was getting ready to make history on Sunday, and not in a good way. The Volunteers blew a 25 point first half lead to Iowa, getting to overtime where Williams absolutely took over. Tennessee used a 9-2 run to take control in the extra frame, and Williams was responsible for all nine points. He scored three straight buckets and found Jordan Bone for a three in the mix, too.

I guess there’s a reason he’s an all-american.

WTF OF THE DAY: Admiral Schofield, Tennessee

During that overtime period, Admiral Schofield was on the bench. He was on the bench at the end of regulation, too. He didn’t foul out. Rick Barnes wasn’t drunk. Schofield knew that the Vols needed Kyle Alexander on the floor, and so did his teammates. So Alexander stayed on the floor and Schofield stayed on the bench and, as a result, Tennessee stayed in the NCAA tournament.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech

Buzz Williams must be happy to have his point guard back. Justin Robinson finished with 13 points and four assists off the bench, but 10 of those 13 points and all four of those assists came after No. 12-seed Liberty had taken a 26-18 lead on Virginia Tech late in the first half of the second round tilt in San Jose. He sparked an 18-6 surge that spanned both halves and had a pair of assists in another 11-3 run early in the second half as the Hokies landed a come-from-behind, 67-58 win over the upset-minded Flames.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Buffalo Bulls

The game that I was most excited about heading into Sunday was Texas Tech vs. Buffalo, and that’s because I thought that the Bulls would at least put up a fight. They didn’t. After staying within striking distance for more of the first half, the Red Raiders buried Buffalo down the stretch.

ONE MORE THING TO KNOW

This was the one.

This was the game that Duke was supposed to lose in this tournament.

This matchup had all the elements necessary to make it happen.

For starters, UCF has the roster makeup to be able to hang with Duke. They have size, they have depth, they have athleticism and they have the one guy in college basketball that can make Zion Williamson an inefficient finisher around the basket in Tacko Fall. They played precisely the way that you need to play to be able to beat these Blue Devils, by packing everyone in the paint, daring Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire to beat you from the perimeter and parking a shot-blocker directly in front of the rim. And they did all that while one of their shot-making wings went bonkers. Aubrey Dawkins finished with 32 points on 12-for-18 shooting, making tough shot after tough shot to give the Knights a shot to win this thing in the final minutes.

Throw in the good fortune from the basketball gods — specifically, a couple of no-calls on Fall and the shot clock violation that wasn’t in the final minutes — and it was all coming together.

Duke was going to lose.

And then that shot happened, this didn’t fall and UCF was heading home:

One of the things that I kept seeing after the end of this game is that this is evidence that Duke is not invincible, which I just don’t understand.

This is something that we have known all season long. Duke struggles to shoot the ball, particularly at the point and the five, and good teams are capable of exploiting that. They pack in the paint, they do their damnedest to avoid turnovers that allow Duke to get out in transition and they hope that all of this happens on a night when their star plays like a star.

That’s how you beat Duke.

That’s the blueprint.

UCF had all the tools they needed, and luck just didn’t break their way.

It’s not different than the end of last year’s Elite 8 game, when Duke was on the other end of the luck spectrum.

That’s when Grayson Allen’s game-winner rolled off the rim, just like Dawkins’ did on Sunday night:

Just how different would the narratives be for these two Duke teams had both of these shots fallen?

Tennessee avoids collapse, survives Iowa in overtime

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Tennessee tried their best to give away the biggest lead in NCAA tournament history, but their all-american Grant Williams wouldn’t let them.

Williams was responsible for a 9-2 burst to open overtime as the No. 2-seed Volunteers hung on to beat 10th-seeded Iowa, 83-77, to get to their first Sweet 16 since 2014. Tennessee pounded the ball into their best player on every possession they had in the extra period, and he responded with three buckets and a kick out to Jordan Bone, who buried a 25-foot three.

Williams finished with 19 points, seven boards, five assists, four steals and three blocks, putting together precisely the kind of all around performance that he has become famous, and it could not have come at a better time for Rick Barnes and company.

For the second straight game, the Vols jumped out to a huge first half lead before giving it all away. Against Colgate in the first round of the tournament, Tennessee led by as many as 15 points in the first half, but they allowed the Raiders to catch fire in the second half, eventually taking the lead before Admiral Schofield buried three straight corner threes to ice the win.

Sunday was the same story, just on steroids.

Tennessee jumped out to a 44-19 lead in the first half and took a 49-28 lead into the break before forgetting how to play basketball. Tyler Cook scored all 11 of his points in the second half, Tennessee turned the ball over 11 times after the break and the Hawkeye shooter finally found a bit of a rhythm, outscoring the Vols 43-22 in the second half to force overtime and come a possession away from landing the biggest comeback in the history of the NCAA tournament.

The record, for what it’s worth, came last season when Nevada erased a 22 point second half deficit in their second round upset of No. 2-seed Cincinnati.

The question now becomes the why.

This is a Tennessee team that has won an SEC regular season title. They have now won 57 games the last two seasons. They have a roster full of players that are veterans known for their toughness, both physical and mental. And there is something to be said for a team blowing a big lead, regrouping and find a way to win. That’s a good thing!

But they were bailed out by Grant Williams simply being by far the best basketball player on the floor on Sunday. They were bailed out by the fact that Colgate is Colgate and was playing without their best player on Friday. We have now reached a point in the tournament where the teams that they play are not going to let them get away with the silly, lazy and undisciplined mistakes that they have made in the last two games.

The second half on Sunday is a perfect example.

Half of Tennessee’s 10 second half turnovers were unforced and totally avoidable. Jordan Bone threw the ball to Iowa more than he threw it to his own team. After spending the first 20 minutes shoving the transition game down Iowa’s throat, the Vols took their foot off the gas and looked like they assumed that Iowa would roll over and die, which is silly because Iowa is only in the second round of the tournament because they erased a 12 point lead in a win over Cincinnati in the first round.

The Vols will advance to take on Purdue in Louisville in the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers are coming off of a blowout win over Villanova in the second round, one that reinforced the notion that this Purdue team, which does not look like a Sweet 16 team on paper, won a share of the regular season title in what has proven to be the toughest and deepest league in the sport.

They are not going to survive a second half meltdown against Matt Painter’s club.

So Rick Barnes better figure out what it is about the last two games that made his team play like they did.

Because they’ll be heading home sooner than he would like if he doesn’t.

Best Bets: The Bettor’s Guide to Sunday’s NCAA tournament games

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12:10 p.m.: No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 10 Iowa, CBS

  • LINE: Tennessee (-8)
  • TOTAL: 156.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Tennessee 82.25, Iowa 74.25
  • KENPOM: Tennessee 83, Iowa 76

I love Tennessee this year and I think Iowa is not really all that good this year, so I’m always going to be on the Tennessee side here. But this is the kicker for me: We’ve talked all season long about how Tennessee is unique in the sense that they are one of the nation’s elite offenses from an efficiency perspective despite the fact that they get just 25.6 percent of their points from beyond the arc.

What they do, however, is get 55.8 percent of their points on two point field goals (20th nationally) and shooting 55.7 percent from two point range (19th nationally). Iowa is one of the worst teams in the country in terms of defending two-point shots. That’s all I need to know.

PICK: Tennessee (-8)

2:40 p.m.: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Washington, CBS

  • LINE: North Carolina (-11.5)
  • TOTAL: 147.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: North Carolina 79.5, Washington 68
  • KENPOM: North Carolina 78, Washington 68

I really like North Carolina to cover here because I don’t going zone against the Tar Heels is necessarily ideal. One of the tenets of UNC’s offense is that they pound the offensive glass. We all know how difficult it is to rebound out of a 2-3 zone, and Washington is particularly bad at it — 345th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.

The other part of this is that North Carolina has not been all that turnover prone this year, and one of the ways that Washington generates offense is with their defense. Pick-six buckets off live-ball turnovers, blocked shots leading run outs, all of the things that Syracuse thrives on. It’s worth noting that the Tar Heels beat the Orange, 93-85, the one time they played this season.

PICK: As impressive as Washington was in the first round, I do think that UNC’s familiarity with the zone that Washington plays will play a factor. Part of the reason that Jim Boeheim made the zone his staple is because it makes his opponents uncomfortable. I don’t see that happening with UNC — according to Synergy, they are actually more efficient playing against a zone than against man — and that’s to say nothing of the fact that their transition game will help reduce the number of possessions they have to face the zone.

5:15 p.m.: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 UCF, CBS

  • LINE: Duke (-13.5)
  • TOTAL: 143.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Duke 78.5, UCF 65
  • KENPOM: Duke 77, UCF 66

UCF has not been quite as good defensively this season as they were last season, but this is still a team and a program that is anchored by the way that they can defend. Their strength on that end of the floor is funneling players into the paint where they have one of the world’s 40 tallest human beings — 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall — patrolling. We all know the scouting report on Duke at this point. The Blue Devils attack the rim relentlessly because they are one of the worst shooting teams in college basketball, and I think that UCF will be able to control tempo and muck it up in the paint enough to keep Duke from running away with this thing.

PICK: I think UCF (+13.5) is the play, and I also think that the under here is mildly interesting, the concern that I have is with Duke’s transition game. UCF is hardly Virginia when it comes to protecting the ball and avoiding turnovers, but B.J. Taylor has been pretty effective at protecting the ball this season.

6:10 p.m.: No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Buffalo, TNT

  • LINE: Texas Tech (-3.5)
  • TOTAL: 146
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Texas Tech 75.25, Buffalo 71.75
  • KENPOM: Texas Tech 74, Buffalo 70

I honestly don’t have a great feel for this game because I think these teams are just so similar. They both rely on toughness. They both play terrific, physical perimeter defense. They both force a ton of turnovers.

PICK: I’m probably going to stay away, but I will say this: I would never, ever bet on someone out-toughing a Chris Beard team. So if you’re going to make me bet, I’ll take the Red Raiders.

7:10 p.m.: No. 4 Virginia Tech vs. No. 12 Liberty, TBS

  • LINE: Virginia Tech (-9)
  • TOTAL: 125.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Virginia Tech 67.25, Liberty 58.25
  • KENPOM: Virginia Tech 68, Liberty 60

Liberty’s head coach, Ritchie McKay, is a Tony Bennett disciple, and what that means is that he runs the Pack-Line, he controls tempo as much as possible and his teams played a slowed down brand of basketball. The evidence? They are 349th nationally in tempo.

Virginia Tech is no different this season. While they have put up some pretty big scoring and shooting numbers this year, this is a group that ranks outside the top 300 in pace, in average possession length on the offensive end of the floor and average possession length on the defensive end of the floor.

PICK: I like the Liberty side, as nine points is a lot of points in what will assuredly be a low-scoring game. The under is also an interesting bet here. This is going to be a 60 possession basketball game, and I think that these two defenses are good enough to keep the game in the high 50s or low 60s.

7:45 p.m.: No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 9 Oklahoma, TruTV

  • LINE: Virginia (-11.5)
  • TOTAL: 127.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Virginia 69.5, Oklahoma 58
  • KENPOM: Virginia 70, Oklahoma 59

The question that you need to ask yourself here is whether or not you think that Virginia shook off their NCAA tournament demons in the first round, because on paper, this is just an atrocious matchup for the Sooners. Oklahoma is not a team that gets much of their offense from beyond the arc, and making perimeter jumpers over the Pack-Line is the way that you typically have to play to beat the Wahoos.

The one thing I will say is this: Oklahoma does have some bigger guards, and Lon Kruger runs them off of a lot of flex cuts and inverts his offense with his guards posting up. This could be exploitable, especially when Tony Bennett runs out lineups that have both Kihei Clark and Kyle Guy on the floor.

PICK: I tend to lean towards Virginia here. Oklahoma has played well of late, but I just don’t think that they have enough answers for Virginia.

8:40 p.m.: No. 3 Houston vs. No. 11 Ohio State, TNT

  • LINE: Houston (-6)
  • TOTAL: 131
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Houston 68.5, Ohio State 62.5
  • KENPOM: Houston 68, Ohio State 62

I think this is where the Ohio State run comes to an end, and it’s because I think that the Cougars will be able to overwhelm Ohio State on the defensive end of the floor. Houston leads the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. Most importantly there is the fact that they double the post and do everything they can to keep bigs from beating them, which is bad news for an Ohio State team that runs their stuff through Kaleb Wesson.

PICK: There is a part of me that wants to stay away from this game. I have the utmost respect for Chris Holtmann as a coach. He’s proven over and over again that he can get more out of a group of kids than just about anyone, and I fully expect the Buckeyes to be prepared for this game. If I had to bet, I’ll take Houston, but I don’t love it.

9:40 p.m.: No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 13 UC Irvine, TBS

  • LINE: Oregon (-5.5)
  • TOTAL: 122.5
  • IMPLIED SCORE: Oregon 64, UC Irvine 58.5
  • KENPOM: Oregon 64, UC Irvine 60

Like Liberty-Virginia Tech, this game is going to be slow, physical and low-scoring. And like Liberty, Irvine is legitimately good enough to beat another power conference team. I’ve also reached the point where I am fully bought in on this Oregon team being a legitimate top 25 caliber team. They’ve won nine straight games, and seven of those nine have come on the road or on a neutral court. They’ve beaten Washington twice — both away from home — and smacked around Wisconsin on a neutral court.

The other part of this is that Oregon is a tougher matchup for Irvine than Kansas State was without Dean Wade. The Ducks have more shooters, their wings are bigger and more capable than Kansas State’s were and they don’t rely on scoring inside the arc the way that the Wildcats did.

PICK: It will be interesting to see where the total moves here. 122.5 is a really low number, and based on what’s happened with some other games with low totals, I would not be surprised to see it drop. If this gets under 120, I think I like the over.

I also think that Oregon (-5.5) is the bet here. I have the utmost respect for Russell Turner and the job that he has done with the Anteaters, but Dana Altman has this Oregon team playing their best basketball at the right time.