FORT WORTH, Texas — Garrison Mathews had 23 points, Kenny Cooper scored 17 with a couple of breakaway layups off steals and Lipscomb held on to upset No. 18 TCU 73-64 on Tuesday night, giving the Bisons their first win over a Top 25 team.
Lipscomb (4-1), the ASUN Conference preseason favorite, had been 0-13 against ranked teams since 2006. All of those losses were by double digits.
Alex Robinson had 17 points, 10 rebounds and six assists for TCU (3-1), which lost a November game for the first time since 2015. The Horned Frogs’ 18-game winning streak during the month had been the second-longest among Division I programs, behind only Virginia’s 21 in a row.
The Bisons built a 12-point lead before Mathews rebounded a missed 3-pointer by Kouat Noi that would have tied the game with just more than a minute left. Mathews then made a 3 at the other end.
Cooper’s steal and layup in the opening seconds of the second half put the Bisons ahead 31-30, and they never trailed again. He did it again just over two minutes later.
TCU had a 30-29 halftime lead after Robinson was able to hit an off-balance 3 from the top of the key to beat the shot clock in the closing seconds of the first half.
Kendric Davis had 14 points for TCU, and JD Miller added 11.
Rob Marberry scored 13 points for Lipscomb.
Lipscomb: The Bisons were down 22-8 midway through the first half before tying it with a 16-2 run that included 10 straight points. Cooper started that spurt with a layup and 3-pointer.
TCU: Point guard Jaylen Fisher played his first game since January. He made his season debut after recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. But he was scoreless on only one shot while playing seven minutes in the first half, and had two fouls. Noi also played his first game. He had been sidelined because of a right knee issue.
Lipscomb plays the third of five consecutive road games Saturday at Morehead State in Kentucky. The Bisons, who played their first three games at home, don’t play at home again until Dec. 9 against Navy.
TCU gets a break for Thanksgiving before resuming a six-game homestand to start the season. The fifth game is Monday night against Eastern Michigan.
With all the hand-wringing and excitement about the return of college basketball this week, you might be surprised to learn that just three teams ranked in the NBC Sports Preseason Top 25 lost.
Two of those losses came in the Champions Classic, as Kentucky and Michigan State fell to the top two teams in this week’s NBC Sports Top 25, Duke and Kansas, respectively. The third? Then-No. 17 West Virginia losing at home to now-No. 25 Buffalo on Friday night.
I say all that to say this: There really isn’t all that much to change about the Top 25 this week. There are really only three questions that need to be answered, so I’ll walk you through my thought process for each one:
Can Kansas fall out of the top spot with a win over a top 15 team?: Hell yes they can. The Jayhawks were the No. 1 team in the country in the preseason based on projections and feelings we had about how good they might end up being. Now we have actual, actionable results to evaluate, and there really should be all that much of a discussion. I’m not even sure there are Kansas fans will sit here and say that, after watching Duke beat Kentucky by 34 points, they believe the Jayhawks are better than the Blue Devils.
How far should Kentucky fall?: I dropped the Wildcats to 18th. I’ve seen other top 25s that have Kentucky at the back-end of the top ten. I don’t think that’s crazy, but I also think that we have much more to worry about with this Wildcat team that those folks realize. Kentucky still has top ten potential, but for my money they are much further from reaching their ceiling than anyone realized. I ended up with them 18th because I couldn’t justify dropping them below LSU or Mississippi State.
What do we do with West Virginia and Buffalo?: I was already lower on West Virginia entering the season than the public, so dropping them out of the top 25 with a loss at home against Buffalo was pretty easy for me to do. I know that loss came as a result of a once-in-a-career blow-up game from C.J. Massinburg and that the Mountaineers didn’t have Beetle Bolden down the stretch as he dealt with cramping issues, but it seemed pretty evident that Press Virginia has some kinks to work out. Buffalo, on the other hand, entered the season as one of the best mid-majors in the country after smoking Arizona in the first round of the 2018 NCAA tournament. They lived up to that billing, so why not reward them?
FORT WORTH, Texas — Desmond Bane scored 13 of his 14 points after halftime when No. 20 TCU rallied for a 66-61 victory over Cal State Bakersfield on Wednesday night.
Bane’s tiebreaking driving layup with 2:48 left finally put TCU ahead to stay. The Horned Frogs had trailed by as many as 11 points before halftime.
TCU played an opener as a ranked team for the first time in 20 seasons, since 1998-99. That was after the Horned Frogs had gone to the 1998 NCAA Tournament, their last one before making it last March in the second season for coach Jamie Dixon at his alma mater.
Jarkel Joiner had 18 points and Damiyne Durham 11 for Bakersfield. Both had three 3-pointers.
JD Miller had 13 points for TCU, while Alex Robinson had 12 points and nine assists. Yuat Alok had 11 points.
Bane, who also had 10 rebounds, and Alex Robinson each had five points in a 19-6 run in the second half that pushed TCU ahead for the first time since less than seven minutes into the game. The Frogs led 49-47 when Bane drove for a layup and made the free throw after being fouled.
Durham and Lee had all of the points for the Roadrunners in a 10-1 run in the first half that pushed them ahead 23-15. Durham had a layup and Lee a jumper, then after a TCU free throw they each had a 3-pointer in a 34-second span that prompted Dixon to call timeout.
Bakersfield led 37-28 at halftime.
Cal State Bakersfield has nine players on its roster who previously redshirted a season, matching the most in the nation. Joiner is a sophomore guard from Oxford, Mississippi, where Barnes was an All-SEC guard as a player for Ole Miss in 1988 before later becoming the SEC Coach of the Year for the Rebels. This is Barnes’ eighth season at Bakersfield.
TCU opened the season without junior point guard Jaylen Fisher, who will miss at least a couple of weeks while recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in September. He missed the final 16 games last season after torn meniscus in that knee.
Cal State Bakersfield plays its home opener Friday against Antelope Valley, the only time the Roadrunners will be at home until Dec. 4.
TCU is playing its first six games at home, the next Sunday against Oral Roberts. They won’t leave campus for a game until making the 40-mile trip to play SMU in Dallas on Dec. 5.
2018-19 Big 12 Preview: Kansas and everybody else, once again
Beginning in September and running up until November 6th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2018-2019 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.
Today, we are previewing the Big 12 Conference.
Ah, the Big 12. It’s the league that has spent the last five years as the top-rated conference by KenPom, and usually by a wide margin. Seventy percent of its membership made the NCAA tournament last season, with a total of 90 percent playing in the postseason. Its teams won 60 percent of its games against other power conferences. Six players were selected in the NBA draft for the third consecutive year. The league is a running, dribbling, dunking, winning monster.
It also has been singularly, completely and, I’d argue, embarrassingly dominated by a single team for 14 consecutive years.
It’s not Kansas and the Little Nine, but to say the Jayhawks aren’t in a class of their own is sort of like arguing the sun is just another piece of our solar system.
The separation this looks to be significant enough that the annual head-meet-wall exercise of “Who will dethrone Kansas?” seems to be more of a futile exercise than typical.
Kansas is going to win the conference. It’ll be the 15th-consecutive time. They’re going to better than the numerous storied, proud and accomplished programs in the league.
We’re not far off from an enrolling a freshman class literally not knowing a world without the Jayhawks winning the Big 12. No matter how good the rest of the nine teams in the conference all may be any year, that’s a tough reality to swallow every single year.
FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW
1. Kansas reaches a singularity
The last half-decade or so of college basketball has produced essentially three paths to competing at the highest levels of the sport. You can accumulate five-star, one-and-done freshmen. Another way is to round up high-level transfers. Then there’s this other way of having players contribute and play for, and hear me out on this, multiple years on the same team and stepping into bigger and bigger roles.
Kansas just said eff it and did all three.
The Jayhawks have a top-five recruiting class featuring five-stars Quentin Grimes and Devon Dotson while putting together maybe one of the more fearsome transfer groups ever with Dedric Lawson, K.J. Lawson and Charlie Moore. Then there’s Udoka Azubuike and Lagerald Vick, both Final Four starters, plus Mitch Lightfoot, back for more. The Jayhawks may not be Duke, they may not be Nevada and they may not be Villanova, but they basically are a mashup of all the best talent-acquisition and roster-building strategies.
It’s easy to see why the rest of the league ends up on its back seeing stars while the Jayhawks pull away the Big 12 trophy every season. Kansas just does it better.
2. Kansas State runs it back
It took something like 500 words to get here, but I’m actually going to discuss – actually even just name – a Big 12 team other than Kansas now.
Let’s head west to Manhattan, where Bruce Weber has his entire team back after a surprise Elite Eight run. It’s a rather astounding turnaround for a coaching tenure that looked cooked in February 2017 when Kansas State had lost eight of 10, looked primed to miss the NCAA tournament for the third-straight year and Weber was under intense pressure.
Dean Wade is a legitimate All-American candidate, Barry Brown isn’t far behind and Xavier Sneed, Carter Diarra and Kamau Stokes are all proven Big 12 difference-makers. The Wildcats are going to have a level of continuity that is exceedingly – maybe entirely – rare in college hoops today. If that stability can keep them strong defensively – they make opponents grind out possessions when they’re not turning them over – and make strides offensively – they ranked outside the top-100 in eFG% last year – then Weber and the Wildcats might have a busy March once again.
3. Is the honeymoon over in Austin?
It took four seasons after an earth-shaking Final Four appearance for a school to pull Shaka Smart away from VCU. Texas fans have to be hoping that’s exactly how long it takes for him to live up to expectations in Austin.
Smart has gotten the Longhorns to two NCAA tournaments in three years, but both resulted in first-round exits. In between those Big Dances in 2016 and 2018, Texas finished dead-last in the Big 12. It’s basically undeniable that Smart’s best season with Texas was on the strength of a roster compiled by a guy run out of town for not winning enough (that guy won an SEC title last year, by the way).
It’s probably not wholly accurate to say Smart is on the hot seat – most Texas fans probably won’t remember they have a basketball team until Tom Herman’s squad stops playing – but given his contract and Texas’ resources, it’s more than fair to expect something better than what he’s delivered in three years. The Longhorns have talent this season despite losing Mo Bamba with Jericho Sims, Matt Coleman, Kerwin Roach and Dylan Osetkowski all back while Andrew Jones continues his valiant battle with leukemia and holds out hope to be back on the floor. There’s also a top-10 recruiting class and Mount. St. Mary’s transfer Elijah Mitrou-Long. That’s probably not a roster that’ll wreak havoc on the Big 12, but it should be good enough to keep fans from fixating on spring football in February.
4. Mountaineer Machine
After two lackluster years to start its Big 12 tenure, West Virginia morphed into Press Virginia and Bob Huggins’ team hasn’t looked back. There have been standout players like Juwan Staten, Jaysean Paige, and Jevon Carter, but the strength has been the system for the Mountaineers. That’ll be put to the test this year again with the loss of Carter, a national defensive player of the year and All-American, but Huggins should once again have the bodies to throw weight around the Big 12.
Sagaba Konate may be the most entertaining defensive player in the whole country. The 6-foot-8 forward has wingspan and vert for days, plus a panache for the dramatic. The guy just seems to love blocking dunks and snatching shots out of mid-air. Esa Ahmad had a breakout sophomore campaign before academic issues upended his season last year, but a return to form is in order and would be a huge boon for the Mountaineers on both ends of the floor. Those are the headliners, but Huggs will again be able to roll out waves of talented and tough dudes that’ll be a menace in the Big 12.
5. Will there be any federal fallout?
Three Big 12 programs have become embroiled to varying degrees in the federal investigation into corruption in college basketball that rocked the sport more than a year ago, reverberated throughout last season and continues to send aftershocks with testimony ongoing in the Southern District of New York.
Brian Bowen Sr. alleged under oath that agent/runner Christian Dawkins told him Texas was willing to “help” with housing if his son, top-30 recruit Brian Jr., joined the Longhorns while Oklahoma State was offering $150,000 in cash, $8,000 for a car and more to buy a house. Cowboys associate head coach Lamont Evans was one of 10 arrested last fall, and was fired by the school.
The potential involvement and rule-breaking by Texas and Oklahoma State is certainly noteworthy and interesting, but the question that hangs over the conference is just how exposed Kansas may be. The Jayhawks are one of adidas’ flagship programs, and the three-stripes are knee-deep in federal investigators. There’s already been testimony that former Jayhawk Billy Preston got money, and there’s also under-oath statements saying that not only did current KU sophomore Silvio De Sousa as well, but that the Angola native previously had signed a pro deal with a Spanish club as well. De Sousa played in the Final Four last season, which would seem to imperil that banner at Allen Fieldhouse, at minimum.
So far, there have been no bombshells of alleged wrongdoing by coach Bill Self and the Jayhawks – especially when judged against a backdrop of fans increasingly caring less about players getting paid – but that possibility seems to be the biggest what-if still out there in a federal case that we’ve learned has spanned more than three years now.
PRESEASON BIG 12 PLAYER OF THE YEAR: DEDRIC LAWSON, Kansas
There are two fan bases that are indebted to the Lawson family. Really, the entire season of 2018-19 owes them thanks. If it wasn’t for Keelon Lawson getting demoted from assistant by Tubby Smith, Memphis might not have its electrifying alum, Penny Hardaway, at the helm of the program and Kansas might not be a popular preseason No. 1 pick. Those are two of the most interesting storylines this season and a testament to how good Dedric Lawson is.
The 6-foot-9 transfer averaged 19.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.1 blocks per game as a sophomore for the Tigers, but left his hometown for Lawrence, along with his talented brother K.J., after Smith dumped their dad before getting dumped by Memphis. He now gives Bill Self one of the most productive and versatile players in the country to headline one of the most talented rosters in the country. Must be nice.
THE REST OF THE BIG 12 FIRST TEAM
SAGABA KONATE, West Virginia: The rare player who is it is actually exciting to watch play defense, Konate changes games with his work at the rim.
DEAN WADE, Kansas State: The 6-foot-10 senior is effective inside and out, which helps keep the Wildcats’ offense from bogging down.
QUENTIN GRIMES, Kansas: This is a bet Kansas leans on the Team USA’s MVP at the FIBA U18 Americas Championship at guard.
BARRY BROWN, Kansas State: The 6-foot-3 guard averaged 15.9 points per game last season and will be critical in the Wildcats’ quest to backup last year’s Elite Eight season.
FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW
LINDELL WIGGINTON, Iowa State
UDOKA AZUBUIKE, Kansas
JAYLEN FISHER, TCU
MAKAI MASON, Baylor
KERWIN ROACH, Texas
Keenan Evans and Zhaire Smith stole the show for Texas Tech’s resurgent season and Elite Eight showing under Chris Beard, but Jarrett Culver was no slouch and figures to step into the void created by those two stars’ departures. He averaged 11.2 points per game and shot 38.2 percent from 3-point range. With a bigger role, he could put up major numbers in Lubbock.
COACH UNDER PRESSURE
Aside from Smart for the aforementioned reasons, the Big 12 doesn’t have any coach who is explicitly feeling the heat. So if we dig below the surface (and, yes, stretch some), there are a few things to talk about.
It’s probably worth watching to see what happens with Kansas and the government’s corruption case, but the list of more bulletproof coaches than Bill Self probably isn’t longer than Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams. Mike Boynton was on staff when Oklahoma State was allegedly offering the Bowen family money, and his contract (and short, if surprisingly strong, track record) would make him easily expendable if the Cowboys had to. Steve Prohm went to back-to-back NCAA tournaments, won a Big 12 tournament and got to the Sweet 16 in his first two years with Iowa State but that was exclusively with players Fred Hoiberg brought to Ames, and when the roster turned over last year, the Cyclones sunk to last place. Prohm’s talent pool is much improved and he’s got plenty of goodwill with administration, but if the Cyclones aren’t back to relevance after missing the tournament for the first time since 2011, some impatience could bubble up.
ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING …
Kansas is once again the Big 12’s best – and maybe only – hope for winning its first national title since 2008, but the league’s depth is once again one of – and maybe the – best in the country.
FIVE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES TO CIRCLE ON YOUR CALENDAR
Dec. 15, Kansas vs. Villanova
Jan. 26, Kansas vs. Kentucky
Nov. 9, West Virginia vs. Buffalo
Nov. 22, Texas vs. North Carolina
Dec. 20, Texas Tech vs. Duke
1. KANSAS: Because there simply has been enough written about the Jayhawks in this space, here’s some more to consider about Kansas’ streak.
The last time the Jayhawks shared the Big 12 title: It was 2013, with Kansas State in Bruce Weber’s first season leading the Wildcats and playing the Jayhawks to a draw. Back then, Perry Ellis was a freshman, twerking was a thing people talked about a lot, Ben McLemore looked like a future NBA star, the power went out at the Super Bowl and Jeff Withey shot 100 percent (1-1) from 3-point range.
The last time there was a non-Kansas outright Big 12 winner: It was 2004. Eddie Sutton led Oklahoma State to a a 14-2 mark in the Big 12 and the Final Four. Those were the days when Kansas rolled with a Wayne Simien and Keith Langford 1-2 punch, everyone was quoting ‘Anchorman,’ Jameer Nelson was the national player of the year and MySpace and Facebook began their battle for friends. Which reminds me that ‘Friends’ was still on TV then, too.
2. KANSAS STATE: So I think Kansas State is going to be quite good. I think it’s clear going into the season that they have to be slotted as the second-best team in the Big 12. They’ve got continuity and talent. Stability and skill. Let’s indulge, for a moment, though, that maybe we’ve got them overrated some.
Would everyone be so high on the Wildcats if UMBC accomplish the 16-1 miracle and they instead had to face No. 1 overall seed Virginia? What if Arizona had actually played up to its talent level and gotten by Buffalo and Kentucky, to face Kansas State instead of a good-but-not-great John Calipari team? Kansas State, after all, was ultimately beat by a team that had losses to Milwaukee and Indiana State, although admittedly it was a team was from Chicago that had the backing of a nun, so Loyola could have been on a mission from God.
I dunno. Something to think about.
3. WEST VIRGINIA: The Mountaineers’ offense was actually ranked higher than its defense last season on KenPom for the first time of the Press Virginia era. West Virginia really didn’t make a ton of shots but they took care of the ball and hit the offensive glass. Losing Jevon Carter is a blow, no doubt, but the Mountaineers should be able to recreate that success on offense without him. It’s also probably a safe assumption that Bob Huggins won’t let the defense fall off a cliff.
4. TCU: It was pretty obvious in 2016 that the Horned Frogs had pulled off quite the coup when it took Jamie Dixon off Pitt’s hands, but the 1987 TCU graduate has outperformed expectations in a hurry. The Horned Frogs made their first NCAA tournament appearance in 20 years last year, and look to have staying power under Dixon.
Vlad Brodziansky made a lot of what TCU did work with his presence in the middle and his loss, along with Kenrich Williams’, will be felt, but Dixon has plenty to work with. Point guard Jaylen Fisher is back after being sidelined with a knee injury to team with Alex Robinson in the backcourt while sharpshooters Desmond Bane and Kouat Noi return to give the Horned Frogs deadly shooters on the outside. The frontcourt could be a question, but TCU is a Big 12 contender.
5. TEXAS: Texas may not have a Jarrett Allen- or Mo Bamba-caliber NBA prospect on its roster this season, but the Longhorns are plenty talented. It wouldn’t shock anyone to see any of Matt Coleman, Dylan Osetkowski, Kerwin Roach and Jericho Sims on all-conference teams come season’s end while Texas also welcomes a top-10 recruiting class and Elijah Mitrou-Long, a Mount St. Mary’s transfer who averaged 15 points per game as a sophomore. Andrew Jones’ long-term health is obviously the chief concern, but if he is able to play, that gives Shaka Smart another highly talented player to deploy.
Smart has gotten Texas to play defense in his three years in Austin, but they’ll need to make strides on the offensive end to finally start competing at the upper echelon of the Big 12, much less the country, which was the expectation when the Longhorns became the team to finally pull Smart from VCU after a long list of schools failed to.
6. IOWA STATE: The Cyclones are going to be much more talented this season as they come off a 13-18 campaign that saw them finish four games behind ninth-place Oklahoma State in the standings, but getting all the pieces to fit could be the trick for coach Steve Prohm.
Lindell Wigginton is a proven scorer and his return after an NBA flirtation was paramount for the Cyclones, but if he wants to play point guard, his likely pro position, what’s that mean for Nick Weiler-Babb, who became a nightly triple-double threat at PG before injuries ended his season? Cameron Lard is a hugely talented big man, but found himself in trouble off the court and spent the summer off-campus at a wellness center. Iowa State will also have to figure out how to integrate transfers Marial Shayok (Virginia) and Michael Jacobson (Nebraska) along with one of the program’s best recruiting classes, headlined by top-50 recruit Talen Horton-Tucker, who the Cyclones think could be a star. There’s also the matter of Iowa State having no proven shooters outside of Wigginton.
If Iowa State can make it all fit together, they could be this year’s rags to riches story, but if things go wobbly, is there enough leadership to keep things steady?
7. TEXAS TECH: It’s going to be difficult for Chris Beard to replace Keenan Evans and Zhaire Smith, but if he’s able to do it, it’ll probably be on the strength of graduate transfers. The Red Raiders welcome South Dakota’s Matt Mooney, who averaged 18 points per game in back-to-back seasons for the Coyotes, and St. John’s Tariq Owens, who averaged 8.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game for the Red Storm.
Beard isn’t without returners to lean on, however, with Jarrett Culver expected to take a major role and Norense Odiase back after starting 29 games. An Elite Eight repeat is probably a tall task, but Beard seems to have a formula figured out to keep things rolling in Lubbock.
8. BAYLOR: It’s going to be a rebuilding season in Waco for coach Scott Drew, who narrowly missed guiding the Bears to their fifth-straight NCAA tournament appearance last year with a 19-15 overall record and 8-10 Big 12 mark. Drew is experiencing heavy losses from that team, namely Manu Lecomte, Jo Lual-Acuil and T.J. Maston.
There will still be experience at Drew’s disposal, though, with Jake Lindsey, Tristan Clark, King McClure and Mark Vital all back after starting at least 14 games each, though none were huge contributors. The most fascinating pieces for Drew are transfers Mario Kegler (Mississippi State) and Makai Mason (Yale), who hasn’t played in essentially two years due to injury.
9. OKLAHOMA: Lon Kruger is one of the best coaches to do it, but he could be in for a long season with the Trae Young Show moving on after one year. Sure, it turned out to be a bumpy ride with Young, a lottery pick to Atlanta, last season, but you could never count the Sooners out with him on the floor.
It’s not going to be as difficult to bet against the Sooners this year as they return the bulk of the supporting cast from last year that seemed incapable of supporting Young. Maybe that singular style of play was just too hard to adapt to, but it’s difficult to see how Oklahoma is better this season than last.
10. OKLAHOMA STATE: Mike Boynton’s team was the surprise of the Big 12 last year as they won 21 games with a roster few in the Big 12 would have envied. That roster, though, lost basically all its best pieces and there aren’t much in the way of immediate reinforcements on their way. The Cowboys will try to hang their hats on defense, and if they’re able to parlay that into a season similar to last, it’ll be perhaps as big a surprise as their two wins against Kansas last year.
No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs: Is TCU second-best in Big 12?
Beginning in September and running up until November 6th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2018-2019 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.
Every day at Noon ET, we will be releasing an in-depth preview of one member of our Preseason Top 25.
Today we dive into No. 15 TCU.
Jamie Dixon, who reached 11 NCAA tournaments in 13 seasons as Pittsburgh’s head coach, was run out of town after the 2015-16 season because he wasn’t good enough.
That’s what happens when you take a historically-downtrodden basketball program and win big for a few seasons. Missing two NCAA tournaments in a five season stretch becomes a fireable offense.
Since Pitt ran off Dixon, the Panthers have had their come-to-Jesus moment, ending the Kevin Stallings-era after just two years, one of which included a winless ACC season. Dixon, on the other hand, has landed in Fort Worth and turned TCU into a top 25 program.
The Horned Frogs won the NIT in Dixon’s first season at the helm, winning 24 games and finding themselves in the midst of the bubble picture in February before a seven-game losing streak to close the regular season ended those dreams. This past season, TCU was even better, as a four-game winning streak in late-February propelled Dixon to his first tournament appearance with his alma mater and TCU’s first trip to the Big Dance in 20 years.
To get an idea of the significance of what’s happening with this team right now, think about this: Since 1968, TCU has been to the NCAA tournament just four times (1971, 1987, 1998 and 2018). The last time that they reached the dance in back-to-back seasons was in 1952 and 1953. I, frankly, never thought I would see a time where TCU was the best team and, arguably, the healthiest basketball program in the state of Texas, but that’s where we are right now.
Because despite losing two starters from last year’s team, TCU looks like they should be better this year.
They are going to be able to score, I have little doubt of that.
Last season, despite missing Jaylen Fisher for half of the year, the Horned Frogs finished as the No. 9 team in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and I think they are going to be better on that end of the floor this season.
For starters, they are going to be one of the growing number of programs that will be playing with two point guards this season, as Fisher will be joined in the backcourt by Alex Robinson. Those two compliment each other well. Robinson is a slick passer that really excels in ball-screens while Fisher is a bigger, more physical athlete that has shot 39.9 percent from three on more than 200 attempts through his first two seasons. Both players notched assist rates above 30 last year, which is a very good number; to put that into context, they both averaged more than 5.4 assists.
I’d hesitate to call TCU the best backcourt in the Big 12 this season, but they are never going to be at a disadvantage there this season.
And that’s before you factor in Desmond Bane and Kouat Noi. Bane is the best shooter in the program, making 46.1 percent of this triples last season while averaging 12.3 points. He’ll be asked to play something of a bigger role this year, as replacing Kenrich Williams is not going to be an easy thing to do, but I expect him to be up to the task. Noi is the x-factor here. As a freshman, he was an impact scorer off the bench, averaging 10.2 points in just over 22 minutes a night. He’s 6-foot-7 with some length, and he shot 43.4 percent from distance while attempting the most threes of anyone on the roster.
With those two point guards and those two shooters on the floor, TCU is going to be a nightmare to defend. Depth could be a bit of an issue, as TCU’s perimeter bench options are largely unproven, but people are the program are bullish on them. R.J. Nembhard is a redshirt freshman and former four-star recruit that saw some action last season before a knee injury forced him to redshirt. Kaden Archie is TCU’s top recruit this season, while another redshirt freshman — Lat Mayen, a 6-foot-8 native of Sudan by way of Australia — fits the mold of TCU’s roster to a T; he’s a combo-forward with three-point range that was considered the top prospect in Australia in his class.
Even if those newcomers struggle to adjust to the college level, it’s hard to imagine TCU finishing the season outside the top 15 offensively.
There are real doubts about how good they are going to be on the defensive end of the floor.
The Horned Frogs finished 100th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric last season, and while Pitt had a reputation for being one of the Big East’s tough, physical defensive monsters in the mid-2000s, that mostly faded away once Ben Howland’s recruits matriculated out of the program. Dixon has had just one team finish in the top 20 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric since 2007, and that was when his 2009 team finished 19th.
Not only did TCU struggle to get stops last season, but they will now be losing the guy that was one of their most important defenders in Kenrich Williams. He was the program’s best rebounder. He led the team in steals last season. He was switchable and physical and allowed TCU to be able to play four-around-one when he was on the floor because of his ability to deal with bigger defenders. Frankly, he was really underrated last season.
Bane probably isn’t big enough to fill that role. I’m not sure Noi or Mayen is physically ready for for a Big 12 battle in the paint. TCU does have an injection promising frontcourt talent coming into the program — specifically redshirt freshman Kevin Samuel and the nation’s top JuCo big man, Yuat Alok — but they will be replacing the now-graduated Vladimir Brodziansky. That should be an upgrade defensively at the very least, but it won’t necessarily make TCU a better than average team defensively.
To be clear, I don’t think they need to be Virginia. We’ve seen over and over throughout the years that, in the NCAA tournament, teams that are elite offensively and good enough defensively have more success than elite defenses that can struggle to score. But if TCU is trending towards finishing the 2018-19 season as a borderline top 100 defense, that probably isn’t “good enough”.
This is pretty obvious, I think: Jaylen Fisher’s health.
Fisher, a Memphis native and former UNLV commit, was one of the first players to commit to Jamie Dixon when he arrived at TCU. A four-star prospect that was a top 40 recruit, Fisher has lived up to the billing. He averaged 9.9 points and 4.0 assists as a freshman. He averaged 12.3 points and 5.4 assists as a sophomore. The kid can play.
He also can barely find a way to stay healthy. A wrist injury cost him most of TCU’s NIT run when he was a freshman. A torn meniscus in his left knee suffered in August of 2017 cost him TCU’s summer trip to Australia and slowed the start to his sophomore campaign. He tore the meniscus in his right knee in January, ending his sophomore year midway through, and in early September he needed an arthroscopic procedure on the knee to clean some things up.
The hope is that Fisher is healthy by the time the season starts.
It should be noted that TCU has had success when he’s not on the floor. They won the NIT when he was out. They went 13-4 — with three overtime losses — in their 17 games after his injury last season. There are enough pieces here to make it work with or without Fisher.
But for TCU to hit their ceiling, to make a run at finishing second in the Big 12 this year, they are going to need Fisher healthy.
Hopefully, they get it.
TCU is going to be really good. There’s little doubt that they will finish in the top half of the Big 12 once again this season; there is a clear-cut top four in the league, and TCU is one of those four.
Frankly, 15th might be somewhat high for them. I doubt there are going to be many, if any, preseason top 25s that have the Horned Frogs higher, but I also doubt there is anyone that will call you crazy for projecting TCU to get to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.
Personally, I think the upside is there for more.
If TCU can keep Fisher healthy throughout the season, and if they find a way to be able to consistently get stops, I think we’re looking at a team that has the horses to make a run to the Final Four. Those are two pretty big ‘ifs’, I know, but they are certainly within the range of outcomes for this group.