DURHAM, N.C. — RJ Barrett had Duke’s first triple-double in 13 years, finishing with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in the second-ranked Blue Devils’ 94-78 victory over North Carolina State on Saturday night.
Zion Williamson scored 32 points on 12-of-16 shooting and Tre Jones added 13 to help the Blue Devils (23-2, 11-1 Atlantic Coast Conference) win their ninth straight.
Barrett became the fourth Duke player with a triple-double and the first since Shelden Williams in January 2006. He completed it in the final minute, hitting Williamson for a layup that put Duke up 90-74.
Duke overcame 19 percent shooting from 3-point range by building a 44-26 rebounding advantage and scoring 22 points off N.C. State’s 12 turnovers.
Markell Johnson had 16 points and 10 assists, Torin Dorn scored 17 points and C.J. Bryce added 13 points for the Wolfpack (18-8, 6-7), who had their two-game winning streak snapped.
N.C. State: The Wolfpack played like a team that believed it could beat Duke — because they had, winning each of the last two meetings — and kept coming up with an answer when the Blue Devils tried to pull away. But their struggles to keep Duke from scoring in the paint — the Blue Devils had 58 points there — kept them from their first three-game winning streak in the series since 1987-88.
Duke: The Blue Devils didn’t need a rally in this one, unlike their victory at Louisville four nights earlier in which they stormed back after trailing by 23 with less than 10 minutes left. They kept one neighborhood rival at arm’s length all night — though they never really delivered a knockout blow — and now they can focus on a bigger one: No. 8 North Carolina, which comes in Wednesday night.
IN THE SEATS
There was even more buzz inside Cameron Indoor Stadium for this one, with boxer Floyd Mayweather sitting directly behind the Duke bench and next to former Blue Devils guard Quinn Cook. Among the handful of other NBA players in attendance was Minnesota’s Tyus Jones, the older brother of the current Duke point guard, and Phoenix’s T.J. Warren, a Durham native and former N.C. State star who was in the stands with NBA All-Star Weekend taking place 2 hours away in Charlotte.
Bubble Banter: All of the weekend’s bubble action in one spot
There is not just under a month left in conference play, so it is time for us to go all-in on the “who’s-in-who’s-out” discussion. Bubble Banter has never been more important!
Some quick housekeeping before we dive into it:
This page will be updated throughout the weekend, so be sure to check back on Friday, Saturday and Sunday as the games get played.
We’ll update them best that we can, but the NET rankings will be accurate through Friday morning.
If you see something we missed, if you have an issue with a team we left out or if you want to congratulate us on a job well done, drop a comment below or hit us up here: @RobDauster.
The cut-off we will be using this year for teams that are “on the bubble” is the No. 9 seed line. If your favorite team is seeded as a No. 9 or better in our most recent bracket, they will not be discussed below. This does not mean that those teams are locks, but it means they need to do something dumb before they are in danger of missing out on the tournament.
On Thursday, our Dave Ommen released an updated bracket, and these eight teams were placed in an 8-9 game: Buffalo, Alabama, Baylor, Syracuse, St. John’s, Auburn, Washington and TCU.
Onto the weekend’s action.
OKLAHOMA (NET: 41, SOS: 12): The Sooners finally snapped a five-game losing streak by going into Fort Worth and picking off TCU, 71-62. I still think that the Sooners are in a tough spot as it stands, but they now how four Q1 wins and just one loss to a team outside the top 35 in the NET — at West Virginia (115), a Q2 loss. A 4-8 mark against Q1 is not great, and neither is their 16-10 record or 4-9 mark in the Big 12, but OU does have three more shots at Q1 wins, and that doesn’t count Texas at home. Their bid is in their hands.
SETON HALL (NET: 61, SOS: 36): Seton Hall may have just about punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament on Sunday afternoon. They landed their third Q1 win of the season by going into Omaha and picking off Creighton (59), but making it all the more impressive is the fact that their first two Q1 wins came against Kentucky (6) on a neutral and at Maryland (21). They do have three unimpressive losses — they were swept by DePaul (91) and lost at home to Saint Louis (123) — but they are now 10-7 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. They end the season like this: Xavier (104), at St. John’s (49), at Georgetown (79), Marquette (20), Villanova (19). Win three more games and they’re in. Win two more and they’re probably feeling pretty good.
MINNESOTA (NET: 58, SOS: 60): The Golden Gophers got screwed on a bad foul call in the final seconds of a loss on Wednesday night, which cost them a Q1 win. They bounced back by absolutely humiliating Indiana at home, a win that won’t carry quite as much weight on Selection Sunday but that will keep the Gophers heading in the right direction. I personally think Minnesota is in really good shape right now given their win at Wisconsin and a win over Washington on a neutral. The 3-7 record in Q1 games isn’t ideal, but their worst loss is only a Q2 loss at Boston College. They close the season like this: Michigan (8), at Rutgers (118), at Northwestern (72), Purdue (11), at Maryland (21). If they go 3-2 in that stretch, they’re dancing, and 2-3 might even be enough to get the job done.
FLORIDA (NET: 42, SOS: 43): The Gators are not going to let us quit them. They picked up their best win of the season on Saturday, going into Tuscaloosa and pounding Alabama (45). That’s just Florida’s second Q1 win of the season. They are now 2-9 against Q1 opponents with a Q3 home loss to South Carolina in the mix. Their 14-11 overall record is not good, and their metrics are floated by the fact that they’ve played a lot of good teams close. Mike White’s team still has some ground to make up, but with two games against LSU (14) and a trip to Kentucky (6) on the schedule, they’ll have chances.
NEBRASKA (NET: 40, SOS: 70): I just can’t quit you, Nebraska. The Cornhuskers won their second straight game on Saturday, adding another Q2 win by picking off Northwestern (72) at home. I know that they lost seven straight earlier this year, but the Huskers are now 8-11 in Q1 and Q2 games with a pair of Q1 road wins. That’s enough to keep them in the mix, and with a schedule that is just absolutely brutal in the final three weeks of the season — at Penn State (70), Purdue (11), at Michigan (8), at Michigan State (7), Iowa (28) — they’ll get five more chances to notch Q1 wins.
WOFFORD (NET: 28, SOS: 167): Wofford absolutely beat the brakes off of the second-best team in the SoCon, UNC Greensboro. They won by 30 points. It’s not a Q1 win because it’s at home, but it is their fourth Q2 win to go along with a 2-4 mark against Q1. As long as the Terriers avoid losing at Chattanooga and at Samford, they are an at-large team in my mind. A 15-0 league record against a conference with more top 60 NET teams than the Pac-12 deserves to get in.
ARIZONA STATE (NET: 72, SOS: 67): Arizona State has one of the strangest resumes in college hoops this season. They are 4-1 in Q1 games and have another Q2 win at UCLA (107). But they’ve lost four Q3 games — Princeton (90), Utah (101), at USC (145), at Vanderbilt (189) — and that doesn’t court their worst loss of the year, at home to Washington State (230) by 21 points.
TEMPLE (NET: 55, SOS: 58): Here is the catch-22 for life on the bubble: Entering Saturday, Temple winning at USF (76) would have been a Q1 win. The Owls went out and they beat the Bulls in overtime. The problem? That loss dropped USF to 76th in the NET, meaning that it is now a Q2 win and Temple’s resume is still a win over Houston (5) and not much else. The reality is that won’t matter all that much. The committee will take into account that winning South Florida, whether it’s Q1 or Q2, is not a game-changer, which is why I’m still of the mindset that Temple needs to win at least four of their final five regular season games and avoid an AAC tournament loss to one of the teams at the bottom of the league.
BUTLER (NET: 53, SOS: 25): The Bulldogs beat DePaul on Saturday night, getting the win they needed to set themselves up for a shot at an at-large. Butler plays at Marquette on Wednesday and at Villanova in two weeks. With just one Q1 win to date, Butler might need to get both to really feel comfortable.
VCU (NET: 43, SOS: 40): The Rams were up by 22 points at Dayton (82) early in the second half and blew the lead, but thanks to a late Marcus Evans bucket, they were able to get out of Dayton Arena with a win. The win at Texas (35) continues to look better and better, a 3-2 mark against Q2 teams is solid and with just one bad loss — a Q3 home loss to Charleston (113) — the Rams are the Atlantic 10’s best chance at an at-large.
BELMONT (NET: 60, SOS: 166): For the Bruins to have a chance at an at-large, they need to win out and lost to Murray State and only Murray State in the OVC tournament. On Saturday night, they smacked around Tennessee Tech. So far so good.
UTAH STATE (NET: 38, SOS: 126): The Aggies probably couldn’t afford a loss to Air Force, and they did what they needed to win — win. There are two things that Utah State needs to do in they truly want to get an at-large bid to the tournament: 1. Beat Nevada at home, and 2. Hope that Fresno State cracks the top 75 in the NET. If they two, that’s one less Q3 loss and one more Q1 win on their resume.
UCF (NET: 45, SOS: 83): UCF won against Memphis in Orlando, which gives them a sixth Q2 win but doesn’t do much to change the biggest flaw in their profile: A total lack of Q1 wins. The Knights play at Cincinnati on Thursday. That will be the game-changer.
TEXAS (NET: 35, SOS: 6): The Longhorns did what they needed to do on Saturday, knocking off Oklahoma State in Austin to avoid picking up their second Q3 loss of the year. The Longhorns are now 15-11 overall and just 7-6 in the Big 12, but they have the No. 6 SOS and No. 11 non-conference SOS nationally. Combine that with a neutral court win over UNC (9), home wins over Purdue (11) and Kansas (18) and a win at Kansas State (26), and the Longhorns are in a pretty good spot.
LIPSCOMB (NET: 30, SOS: 188): Losing to a three-win Kennesaw State team would have been a dream-killer for the Bisons. They won and live to fight another day.
N.C. STATE (NET: 37, SOS: 239): The Wolfpack lost at Duke on Saturday, which is what we all expected to see happen. The chink in N.C. State’s armor is that they played the worst non-conference schedule in the country, and when combined with A) just one Q1 win and B) a Q3 loss, Kevin Keatts is not in a place where he can feel comfortable yet. The most troubling part: N.C. State’s season ends like this: Boston College, Wake Forest, at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Boston College. They have one Q1 opportunity left. They really, really need to win it.
UNC GREENSBORO (NET: 46, SOS: 191): The Spartans were whipped at Wofford, losing by 30 to the SoCon leaders. It’s their second loss this week and probably takes them out of serious bubble consideration. We’ll keep them around, but they’re probably not going to have enough good wins.
ARKANSAS (NET: 63, SOS: 45): I don’t get the appeal of Arkansas as a bubble team. They won at LSU, which is nice, but that is their only Q1 win in seven tries and they are 3-10 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. They’ve also lost at home to both Georgia Tech (118) and Western Kentucky (121), which are Q3 losses. What is the appeal here? What am I missing?
INDIANA (NET: 49, SOS: 36): Indiana is off the bubble at this point. They went into Minnesota and got absolutely poleaxed. The Hoosiers have now lost 10 of their last 11 games to fall to 13-12 on the season and 4-10 in the Big Ten. If they can somehow find a way to put together a winning streak late in the year, they have some great wins — at Michigan State (7), Louisville (16), Marquette (20) — and no bad losses, but that feels like saying if I can lose 30 pounds and get my six pack back I could be an underwear model.
CLEMSON (NET: 42, SOS: 33): The Tigers had a shot to land their second Q1 win of the season, but after erasing and eight point lead in the final minute and forcing a turnover with 3.5 seconds left, the Tigers had a layup blocked with that would have won the game. The result doesn’t really hurt their profile other than the opportunity cost — this is the kind of win that, on this year’s bubble, can jump Clemson up four or five spots in the seed list. That’s a tough miss.
Best Bets: Previewing Tennessee-Kentucky, Iowa State-Kansas State, weekend’s biggest games
There are a number of reasons that this battle of top five teams is one of the most interesting matchups of the season, and perhaps the most relevant is the obvious: These are both top five teams! I know Kentucky just lost to LSU in Rupp Arena, but that still doesn’t really change the fact that Kentucky is, legitimately, one of the eight-to-ten teams that are the most likely to earn a spot in Minneapolis for that first weekend in April.
Kentucky still gets two shots at Tennessee, who also must travel to LSU. A SEC regular season title is still very much in the cards for the Cats.
And all of that is before you get to the actual personnel matchups here, which should be terrific. Grant Williams, for my money, is No. 2 in the National Player of the Year voting. He’s been dominant on the block for the Vols this season, and he will be asked to go up against P.J. Washington and Reid Travis on Saturday afternoon. The more intriguing matchup of the two will be Washington, who himself has been playing like a first-team All-American over the course of the last three weeks.
It is precisely that frontcourt battle that is going to play a major role in determining the outcome of this game. For starters, it will be strength on strength. Tennessee’s offense runs through Williams. Kentucky’s offense runs through Washington and Travis. We also need to note that the Wildcats can be absolutely dominant on the offensive glass. They are third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. They know that there are times where their best offense is a missed shot, and the Vols have not been great on the defensive glass this season.
The perimeter battle may actually end up being more interesting. As we discussed on the Why Your Team Sucks podcast, the concern for both of these teams is whether or not there is enough firepower in their backcourts to win at the level they expect to win. For Kentucky, the concern is obvious: Ashton Hagans, as good as he is defensively, is not a threat on the offensive end of the floor while Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson have gone through the bouts of inconsistency that you expect out of freshmen.
The conversation is a bit more nuanced with Tennessee. Their backcourt is not overloaded with high-end talent, and if there is an issue standing between them and a national title, it’s whether or not those guards are going to be able to win them close games against elite teams. We will get that answer on Saturday night.
PICKS: All three metrics project this game to be play in the mid-70s with the line landing at Kentucky (-2). Frankly, I am not sure what side I want to be on here. On the one hand, Kentucky is coming off of a home loss, they are hosting the No. 1 team in the country in their building and they have a roster that has more talent on it. It’s also worth noting here that while Tennessee is on a 19 game winning streak, the only surefire NCAA tournament team they’ve beaten in that streak was Gonzaga on Dec. 9th. The best team they have played in the last two months was … Alabama? Florida? This will be their first major test in a long, long time.
That said, there is a very real difference in toughness and experience on these two teams. This is the same Tennessee roster that won the SEC last year. They have been through the rigors of a title race. They are also a much older and tougher group of guys that were overlooked throughout their career, and I can guarantee that there is nothing they would love more than pounding on some highly-touted freshmen that haven’t had to fight the fights they’ve fought.
Tennessee is the most complete team in the country, but I just cannot bring myself to pick against Kentucky after the way they lost on Tuesday. If the line opens at (-2), I’ll probably be on the Wildcats, but here’s to hoping the total opens in the high-140s and we can bet the under instead.
No. 23 IOWA STATE at No. 18 KANSAS STATE, Sat. 4:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
KENPOM PROJECTION: Kansas State 64, Iowa State 63
TORVIK PROJECTION: Kansas State 65, Iowa State 64
HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Iowa State 66, Kansas State 65
Might we be getting a battle between the two best teams in the Big 12 on Saturday afternoon? That could very well be the case.
The first time these two teams got together, Kansas State won 58-57 in Ames after an Iowa State defensive breakdown in the final seconds gave Barry Brown an easy bucket for the win. I do not expect the rematch to be quite as ugly as the first battle, and the reason for that is the return of Dean Wade. He played 22 minutes in the first game, but he was not back to being himself after battling a foot injury. He is now, and he’s playing the all-american we predicted him to be.
And for my money, he will be the most important player in this game, especially with Cartier Diarra out after undergoing surgery on his hand. Iowa State plays four perimeter players at almost all times, meaning that Wade is going to be the mismatch. He’ll have smaller players — Talen Horton-Tucker? — on his when he’s at the four and will be guarded by slower bigs when he is at the five. If he can win those matchups on the offensive end, it will be tough for Iowa State.
Wade’s return has boosted Kansas State offensively. There was one point this season where they ranked outside the top 200 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and while they are hardly last year’s Villanova with Wade — their best shooter and best passer — back, they have worked their way back to 109th in KenPom’s rankings. In conference play alone, they are the fifth-best offensive team, one spot in front of Kansas, and that includes their 0-2 start to league play where they scored 47 points against Texas and 57 points against Texas Tech.
PICKS: This could be the game that wins Kansas State the outright Big 12 title. They currently hold a two-game lead over the field in the loss column, and their schedule really lightens up down the stretch. Their next two games are at West Virginia and Oklahoma State at home. They still have to go to Allen Fieldhouse, but they end the season with Baylor at home, TCU on the road and Oklahoma at home.
Win on Saturday, and Kansas State can afford a loss at Allen Fieldhouse and still control their own destiny.
I will be very curious to see where this line opens. The metrics still are underrating Kansas State because of how dreadful they were without Wade, so if this opens around Kansas State (-1), then I will hammer the Wildcats.
This could be the worst possible time for anyone to play Michigan. The last time we saw the Wolverines, they were getting embarrassed by the last place team in the Big Ten as Penn State went up 13 points at halftime as John Beilein was tossed before he even made it back to the locker room for the break.
Michigan is now tied for first in the league instead of having sole possession of first place, and they’re heading home pissed off after a loss where they played terribly?
That’s a tough spot before you consider that Maryland just does not matchup well with Michigan. Anthony Cowan will have to deal with Zavier Simpson. Bruno Fernando will have Jon Teske to battle with. They are Maryland’s two major sources of offense.
PICKS: I tend to lean towards Michigan here, even if the line opens at (-7) or so. I just don’t know where Maryland gets offense from.
No. 13 VILLANOVA at ST. JOHN’S, Sun. 5:00 p.m. (FS1)
KENPOM PROJECTION: Villanova 73, St. John’s 72
TORVIK PROJECTION: St. John’s 75, Villanova 74
HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: St. John’s 76, Villanova 72
I actually think St. John’s is a difficult matchup for the Wildcats because of the way the Johnnies play. Like Villanova, they essentially role five switchable perimeter players out there without much, in any, interior scoring presence. For years, Villanova has thrived on their ability to create mismatches all over the floor, and I just don’t know if they’re going to be able to do that against the Johnnies. The first time they played this year, St. John’s led for most of the game before a late Villanova run won it.
That said, there is no comfort betting on a team that is as inconsistent as St. John’s is. They are currently 6-6 in Big East play with home losses to DePaul, Georgetown and Providence, but they’ve also swept Marquette this season.
PICKS: I have no idea what this line is going to be. KenPom is favoring Villanova by one point. Torvik has St. John’s winning by one. Haslametrics has the Johnnies winning by four. If St. John’s ends up favored, I’ll probably bet Villanova simply because I am not in the business of betting against Villanova, especially when Jay Wright is going up against Chris Mullin.
N.C. STATE at No. 2 DUKE, Sat. 6:00 p.m. (ESPN)
KENPOM PROJECTION: Duke 89, N.C. State 70
TORVIK PROJECTION: Duke 93, N.C. State 73
HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Duke 94, N.C. State 72
I have a feeling that this game is going to get really ugly, really quickly.
The way to beat Duke is proven. Defensively, you stay disciplined, you pack the paint, you gap them and you dare them to beat you with jumpers. Offensively, you need to slow the game down and control tempo, avoiding quick shots and live-ball turnovers that lead to layups. N.C. State wants to press, they want to run and they want to gamble to force turnovers.
I just don’t see that working out all that well.
PICKS: The projections suggest Duke should be roughly a 20 point favorite, although I think the line will be closer to (-17ish). I like the Duke side if that is the line, but I like the over even more, assuming it opens around 160. For perspective, when N.C. State played North Carolina, the final scores were 90-82 and 113-96.
BAYLOR at No. 15 TEXAS TECH, Sat. 2:00 p.m. (ESPN)
KENPOM PROJECTION: Texas Tech 66, Baylor 58
TORVIK PROJECTION: Texas Tech 67, Baylor 58
HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Texas Tech 68, Baylor 56
The question that you have to ask here is whether or not you buy the Texas Tech that we’ve seen of late. After a swoon in mid-January that saw Chris Beard’s club lose three in a row, they’ve won five of their last six, including a pair of blowout wins in the last two weeks that have seemingly given them their confidence back on the offensive end.
And that’s where I think this game will be won. Baylor runs a wonky zone that is somewhere between a 2-3 and a 1-3-1, and the issue that the Red Raiders face is that they can really go through droughts offensively, especially when Jarrett Culver isn’t on his game. They aren’t a great shooting team or a great passing team, and those are the two things you need to be able to do to beat a zone.
That said, the shots have been falling of late. They made 22 threes in their last two games.
Two other things to note: Baylor has lost two of their last three games, but Makai Mason returned to action on Monday after missing last Saturday’s game against Kansas State. There is no word yet on King McClure’s status. The first time these two teams played this year, Baylor won 73-62 in Waco.
PICKS: I’ve long been a believer in Texas Tech, and I think that the Bears are going to come back to earth hard over the final stretch of the season. They won three of their first four road games in Big 12 play, but those were wins at Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Oklahoma, the bottom three teams in the league standings. Their four road trips to end the season: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas. If this line opens at (-8), I’ll be on the Red Raiders.
Since it’s Valentine’s Day, we’ll sweep the epic crumbles of futility – otherwise known as this year’s bubble – under the proverbial rug and try not to look.
Instead, we’ll send Happy Heart greetings to the Duke Blue Devils and LSU Tigers, both of whom celebrated huge road wins in the Commonwealth on Tuesday. For their efforts, Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in today’s bracket. LSU rises to No. 12 on the seed list, good for the final No. 3 seed.
As for those crumbles, today’s cutline decisions included serious consideration for teams like Oklahoma, Indiana, Butler, and Florida, all of whom have significant resume issues. There are no clear answers, especially with regards to how the Selection Committee will use the NCAA’s new NET ratings. The good news for those four, and others, is we still have games to play.
BRACKET UPDATE: February 14, 2019
FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
Clemson vs. Arizona State
UNC Greensboro vs. Utah State
Norfolk State vs. Quinnipiac
Robert Morris vs. Prairie View
EAST – Washington, DC
SOUTH – Louisville
16) QUINNIPIAC / NORFOLK ST
Salt Lake City
5) KANSAS STATE
4) Iowa State
13) OLD DOMINION
6) Florida State
7) Mississippi State
7) Ohio State
10) NC State
10) Seton Hall
2) North Carolina
WEST – Anaheim
MIDWEST – Kansas City
Salt Lake City
16) SAM HOUSTON
16) ROB MORRIS / PR VIEW
8) St. John’s
5) Texas Tech
12) Clemson / Arizona State
12) NC-Greensboro / Utah State
13) NEW MEXICO ST
6) Virginia Tech
14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY
14) SOUTH DAKOTA ST
7) Ole Miss
2) MICHIGAN STATE
15) TEXAS STATE
Last 4 Byes
Last 4 IN
First 4 OUT
Next 4 OUT
TOP SEED LINE: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Tennessee, Virginia, and Gonzaga
Breakdown by Conference …
ACC (9): DUKE, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, NC State, Clemson
N.C. State earned itself a solid ACC home win over Syracuse on Wednesday night as the Wolfpack gave themselves another solid NCAA tournament booster.
But more importantly, they were without three players on the bench on Wednesday for various reasons. Guards Eric Lockett and Blake Harris, members of the N.C. State rotation, both were absent while transfer big man Sacha Killeya-Jones was also not at the game.
On Thursday morning, WRAL reported that Lockett had been arrested for allegedly hitting his ex-girlfriend in the face on Tuesday night. Details about the incident that led to the arrest are still unclear. Lockett’s ex-girlfriend told police that he threatened to kill her, but that she did not police the threat to be serious and that it was made after she punched and kicked Lockett.
Following the win on Wednesday night, Wolfpack head coach Kevin Keatts gave some answers on Killeya-Jones and Harris, although it provided minimal clarity on what is actually happening.
Killeya-Jones, sitting out this season after transferring from Kentucky due to NCAA transfer policy, was mentioned by Keatts as “currently not a member of our program” as that’s all he would say on the subject. Keatts also didn’t elaborate on the absences of Lockett and Harris, as Lockett missed due to personal reasons while Harris had an illness.
Bubble Banter: We need to talk about N.C. State, Auburn and UCF
The most recent NBC Sports bracket projection can be found here.
For my money, the three toughest resumes to figure out — at least when discussing teams in, on and around the bubble — are N.C. State (NET: 37, SOS: 262), UCF (NET: 45, SOS: 101) and AUBURN (NET: 20, SOS: 30).
All three played on Wednesday night.
Only one of the three lost, so we’ll start with Auburn, who have great computer numbers — they’re not only top 20 in the NET, they’re 17th in KenPom — and just one loss to a team outside the top 40, but there is a total and complete lack of quality wins to their name. They are 0-6 against Q1 opponents this season. Their best win came against Washington (31) at home on the fourth day of the season. Since then, the only two teams they’ve beaten with a puncher’s chance at getting an at-large are 13-11 Florida and 15-9 Alabama. They are just 1-5 on the road, and the one win came against a bad Texas A&M (82) team.
They’re not on the bubble right now because their computer numbers are too good to ignore, but how high can you seed a team without a Q1 win?
It’s the same question that we have to ask about UCF, who, as of Valentine’s Day, has played just two Q1 games and lost them both. One of those two losses was by 20 points to a thoroughly mediocre Memphis team. The Knights have actually won a few road games — UConn (79), SMU (110), Tulane (293) — but they do have an ugly home loss to FAU (164) on their resume as well. Their win over South Florida on Wednesday night is their fifth Q2 win of the year.
Our Dave Ommen is the best in the business when it comes to bracketing, and he has UCF in the tournament as of today. If he says it, then I’ll believe it, but more than anything, it’s evidence of just how bad the bubble is this year.
Which brings us to N.C. State.
The Wolfpack’s profile isn’t all that different from UCF or Auburn, with the one exception being that they have one Q1 win … which came at home against Auburn. They are 18-7 on the season, and just one of those seven losses — at Wake Forest (194), without Markell Johnson — is not a Q1 loss, but the issue for N.C. State is that they, quite literally, have the worst non-conference SOS in the country, according to the NET.
The committee has proven, over and over again, that is something they will punish you for.
We just don’t know how much.
N.C. STATE (NET: 37, SOS: 262): See above.
UCF (NET: 45, SOS: 101): See above.
SETON HALL (NET: 69, SOS: 47): The Pirates picked up their seventh Q2 win of the season when they beat Georgetown at home on Wednesday. With a neutral court win over Kentucky and a win at Maryland, the Pirates do have two really good wins, which are off-set by a pair of Q3 home losses. Their bid is going to come down to whether or not they get wins against Marquette and Villanova at home in the last week of the regular season.
UTAH STATE (NET: 38, SOS: 114): The Aggies bounced back from their loss at San Diego State by knocking off Wyoming at home on Wednesday. I think they need to win out — including Nevada at home — to have a real chance at an at-large.
FLORIDA (NET: 42, SOS: 39): Florida won! They beat Vanderbilt, snapping a three-game losing streak and getting them to within a game of .500 in league play. They have good computer numbers, just one bad loss — South Carolina (100) at home — and four more Q1 games left on the schedule, which should help offset their current 1-9 mark against Q1 opponents.
VCU (NET: 43, SOS: 34): VCU smoked city rival Richmond on Wednesday night, continuing to do what they need to do to keep themselves on the right side of the bubble — don’t lose to bad teams. And based on the way their schedule shakes out, VCU probably would not be able to sleep comfortably if they lose to anyone other than Dayton on the road before the A-10 tournament starts.
TEMPLE (NET: 55, SOS: 58): Temple is right there with UCF when it comes to their profile, but I think they’re in slightly better shape right now for two reasons — 1. They have a win over Houston (5), and 2. their bad loss is a Q3 loss to Penn (92). That said, Temple’s only chances to land Q1 wins come at South Florida, at Memphis and at UConn. None of those teams are in the top 65 of the NET.
AUBURN (NET: 20, SOS: 30): See above.
ARIZONA STATE (NET: 72, SOS: 69): The Sun Devils picked the wrong time to make the toughest road trip in the Pac-12. Firmly on the cutline, they had lost two of their last four games — including a 21 point loss to Washington State (176) last Thursday — before going into Colorado (80) and losing to the Buffaloes. All in all, it’s not a terrible loss, but with a Q3 loss and two Q4 losses to their name, they need all the help they can get.
CLEMSON (NET: 39, SOS: 25): Clemson went down to Coral Gables and took a loss to a Miami team that is now 11-13 overall and just 3-9 in the ACC. This loss does not look as bad on a resume as it does in real life — the Hurricanes are 90th in the NET, so it’s just a Q2 loss — but the Tigers are not in a great spot as of today. They need to keep building on a profile that doesn’t include a bad loss but that only has one Q1 win on it — Virginia Tech (13) — and features a 4-9 record against Q1 and Q2 opponents. This isn’t a killer, but this is another step in the wrong direction.
MINNESOTA (NET: 58, SOS: 62): The Gophers are in a good spot because of the strength of the league that they play in. There are no bad losses in the Big Ten right now, but it’s time for Minnesota to turn this thing around. They lost their fourth straight on Wednesday at Nebraska, but as bad as the Huskers have been, that is comfortably a Q1 loss. As it stands, Minnesota is 3-7 against Q1 and 4-2 against Q2, and their worst loss is at Boston College (128). They’ve won at Wisconsin and beat Washington on a neutral.
LIPSCOMB (NET: 30, SOS: 226): The Bisons lost at home on Wednesday night, which typically would be a killer to their at-large profile except that this loss came to Liberty, who is now 20-5 on the year, tied for first in the Atlantic Sun with Lipscomb and — most importantly — 61st in the NET. This hurts because this was the last time Lipscomb had a chance to land a Q2 win during the regular season.
GEORGETOWN (NET: 78, SOS: 79): The Hoyas lost at Seton Hall by 15 points on Wednesday, dropping them to 3-4 against Q1 opponents. They’re also 4-4 against Q2 and they have a pair of Q3 losses. They’re firmly in the bubble conversation, but they need to start winning. They have a week off until they get Villanova at home. That’s as close to a must-win as it can get in mid-February.
CREIGHTON (NET: 57, SOS: 10): Creighton lost their third straight on Wednesday, falling in overtime at Xavier. They are now 12-12 on the year and 4-8 in the Big East. They probably need to win out to get an at-large at this point.
PROVIDENCE (NET: 74, SOS: 65): The Friars lost at Villanova (21) on Saturday in a game that was brutal for their at-large chances. It’s not because losing at Villanova is a bad loss, it’s because Providence is on the bubble of being on the bubble. They have quite a bit of ground to make up, and this was their best chance to do that. They whiffed.