Bracketology

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Bracketology: Carolina, Kentucky move up

By Dave OmmenMar 11, 2019, 11:30 AM EDT

We begin a new week with two new No. 1 seeds … North Carolina and Kentucky. The Tar Heels arrive after completing a season sweep of Duke. The Wildcats arrive after beating Florida and having Tennessee fall at Auburn.

The Blue Devils and Volunteers are next on the Seed List and could move back up with strong tourney showings. Keep an eye, too, on Michigan State. The Spartans beat Michigan a second time and winning the Big Ten tournament would put them in the conversation for a one seed.

Along the bubble, a few early-round tournament games might well end up being de-facto elimination games, especially in the ACC, Big East, and Big 10. The cutline is a very unsettled landscape and it’s likely to change several times between now and Sunday.

Then we have teams like Belmont and Furman, both of whom must sit, wait, and watch. It’s going to be a long week.

UPDATED: March 11, 2019

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
MIDWEST REGION	Creighton vs. UNC-Greensboro
SOUTH REGION	Ohio State vs. Clemson
EAST REGION	Iona vs. Norfolk State
WEST REGION	Prairie View vs. St. Francis (PA)

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON

EAST – Washington, DC		WEST – Anaheim
Columbia		Salt Lake City
1) Virginia		1) Gonzaga
16) Iona / St. Francis (PA)		16) Prairie View / Norfolk St
8) Ole Miss		8) Iowa
9) VCU		9) Baylor

San Jose		Hartford
5) Maryland		5) Mississippi State
12) LIBERTY		12) Creighton / NC-Greensboro
4) Kansas State		4) Florida State
13) New Mexico State		13) Vermont

Des Moines		Tulsa
6) Cincinnati		6) Nevada
11) Arizona State		11) St. John’s
3) Michigan		3) Texas Tech
14) Hofstra		14) Harvard

Jacksonville		Des Moines
7) Louisville		7) Wofford
10) Utah State		10) Syracuse
2) LSU		2) Michigan State
15) Colgate		15) BRADLEY

MIDWEST – Kansas City		SOUTH – Louisville
Columbus		Columbia
1) Kentucky		1) North Carolina
16) Omaha		16) Sam Houston State
8) Oklahoma		8) UCF
9) Seton Hall		9) Washington

Hartford		San Jose
5) Virginia Tech		5) Marquette
12) MURRAY STATE		12) Ohio State / Clemson
4) Wisconsin		4) Kansas
13) Old Dominion		13) UC-Irvine

Salt Lake City		Tulsa
6) Auburn		6) Villanova
11) Indiana		11) TCU
3) Houston		3) Purdue
14) Montana		14) Georgia State

Jacksonville		Columbus
7) Iowa State		7) Buffalo
10) Minnesota		10) Temple
2) Duke		2) Tennessee
15) Wright State		15) GARDNER-WEBB

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes	Last 4 IN	First 4 OUT	Next 4 OUT
TCU	Ohio State	NC State	Florida
St. John’s	Creighton	Georgetown	Alabama
Arizona State	UNC-Greensboro	Belmont	Texas
Indiana	Clemson	Furman	Xavier

TOP SEED LINE: Virginia is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Gonzaga, North Carolina, and Kentucky

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (9): MICHIGAN STATE, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State

ACC (8): VIRGINIA, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Clemson

BIG 12 (7): TEXAS TECH, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU

SEC (6): LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss

Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Creighton

American (4): HOUSTON, Cincinnati, UCF, Temple

Pac 12 (2): WASHINGTON, Arizona State

Mountain West (2): NEVADA, Utah State

Southern (2): WOFFORD, UNC-Greensboro

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU

Mid American (1): BUFFALO

West Coast (1): GONZAGA

ONE BID LEAGUES: BRADLEY (MVC), Iona (MAAC), Old Dominion (C-USA), Texas State (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Montana (BSKY), Wright State (HORIZON), Sam Houston State (SLND), UC-Irvine (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), Hofstra (CAA), GARDNER-WEBB (BSO), Norfolk State (MEAC), Omaha (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Colgate (PAT), St. Francis (PA) (NEC), Prairie View (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.

CBT Bracketology: Xavier climbs to the top line

AP Photo/John Minchillo

By Dave OmmenFeb 26, 2016, 9:37 AM EDT

2 Comments

It’s almost March and the No. 1 seed lines remain an open book. Kansas is best positioned to retain its slot on the top line, assuming the Jayhawks avoid a cluster of losses. The remaining spots are more open for debate. Xavier is the latest newcomer – following Wednesday’s victory over Villanova. Quietly, the Musketeers have compiled a resume worthy of top-seed consideration. Keeping a spot won’t be easy, however. North Carolina continues to push, as does a surging Michigan State team that is finally healthy. Today, Oklahoma and Villanova hold the other No. 1 seed positions.

As it looks right now, a group of teams from the Atlantic 10 could have a lot at stake in the next two weeks. Dayton is strongest positioned, and most likely safe, even as the Flyers teeter a little. The next four – Saint Joseph’s, VCU, St. Bonaventure, and George Washington – all have various tasks remaining. Although St. Joe’s is the final No. 7 seed today, the difference between the Hawks and VCU and St. Bonaventure (among the First Four OUT) is not nearly as deep as it appears. In fact, it’s rather small – which serves as a good illustration of where we stand in the middle and lower-end of the bracket. To varying degrees, teams on seed lines 7-12 all have work remaining.

Consider Providence. After losing five of six games and six of their past eight, the Friars find themselves among the last four teams with a bye (meaning just above the First Four). Their last three games should be manageable, but their margin for error is fading – fast.

It could really get interesting if we have a few “upsets” during Championship Week. How will the cutline look if a few teams like Little Rock, Monmouth, San Diego State, Valparaiso and even Hawaii or Chattanooga lose in the the championship games of their conference tournaments? What if Gonzaga wins the West Coast tourney? Has Saint Mary’s done enough? And what if an upstart – say a team like Mississippi State in the SEC – goes on a hot streak for three days? Stay tuned.

BRACKET UPDATE: February 26, 2016

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. In the event of a tie in the loss column, RPI is first tiebreaker. Notes: To simulate actual bracket conditions, we’ve used current conference leaders to receive the automatic bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (ex: UCLA)

Several new bracketing principles were introduced a couple of years ago. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

Cincinnati vs. Alabama | Midwest Region
Vanderbilt vs. Tulsa | South Region
BUCKNELL vs. WAGNER | West Region
HAMPTON vs. TEXAS-SOUTHERN | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWEST – Chicago		WEST – Anaheim
Des Moines		Oklahoma City
1) KANSAS		1) Oklahoma
16) TX-SOUTHERN / HAMPTON		16) BUCKNELL / WAGNER
8) USC		8) Seton Hall
9) Pittsburgh		9) Oregon State

Oklahoma City		Spokane
5) INDIANA		5) Baylor
12) MONMOUTH		12) SAN DIEGO ST
4) KENTUCKY		4) Utah
13) CHATTANOOGA		13) HAWAII

Spokane		Des Moines
6) Purdue		6) California
11) Cincinnati / Alabama		11) LITTLE ROCK
3) OREGON		3) Iowa
14) S.F. AUSTIN		14) UAB

Brooklyn		Raleigh
7) Texas Tech		7) Saint Joseph’s
10) Michigan		10) Providence
2) Miami-FL		2) Virginia
15) MONTANA		15) NEW MEXICO ST

SOUTH – Louisville		EAST – Philadelphia
St. Louis		Brooklyn
1) Xavier		1) VILLANOVA
16) NORTH FLORIDA		16) WINTHROP
8) Wisconsin		8) Syracuse
9) Colorado		9) WICHITA STATE

Denver		Denver
5) Duke		5) Texas
12) VALPARAISO		12) TEMPLE
4) Iowa State		4) Arizona
13) AKRON		13) STONY BROOK

Providence		Providence
6) Texas A&M		6) Notre Dame
11) Vanderbilt / Tulsa		11) SAINT MARY’S
3) Maryland		3) West Virginia
14) HOFSTRA		14) PRINCETON

Raleigh		St. Louis
7) DAYTON		7) South Carolina
10) Florida		10) Connecticut
2) NORTH CAROLINA		2) Michigan State
15) BELMONT		15) IPFW

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Oklahoma, Villanova, and Xavier. Next in line: North Carolina, Michigan State, Virginia, Miami-FL

Last Four Byes (at large): Providence, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan

Last Four IN (at large): Vanderbilt, Alabama, Cincinnati, Tulsa

First Four OUT (at large): VCU, St. Bonaventure, Butler, George Washington

Next four teams OUT (at large): Gonzaga, Washington, BYU, UCLA

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (7): NORTH CAROLINA, Virginia, Miami-FL, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh

Pac 12 (7): OREGON, Utah, Arizona, California, USC, Colorado, Oregon State

Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech

Big 10 (7): INDIANA, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan

SEC (6): KENTUCKY, Texas AM, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama

Big East (4): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence

American (4): TEMPLE, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Atlantic 10 (2): DAYTON, Saint Joseph’s

West Coast (1): SAINT MARY’S

Mountain West (1): SAN DIEGO STATE

Missouri Valley (1): WICHITA STATE

ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), UAB (C-USA), Ark-Little Rock (SBELT), Princeton (IVY), Montana (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), Stephen F. Austin (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), Hawaii (BWEST), Akron (MAC), North Florida (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), Hofstra (CAA), Winthrop (BSO), Hampton (MEAC), IPFW (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Stony Brook (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Wagner (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)

CBT Bracketology: Merry-go-round bubble continues

AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi

By Dave OmmenFeb 19, 2016, 1:52 PM EDT

MIDWEST – Chicago		EAST – Philadelphia
Des Moines		Brooklyn
1) KANSAS		1) VILLANOVA
16) TX-SOUTHERN / HAMPTON		16) BUCKNELL / WAGNER
8) Providence		8) Pittsburgh
9) Florida		9) Alabama

Spokane		Denver
5) Utah		5) Texas
12) CHATTANOOGA		12) ARK-LITTLE ROCK
4) Purdue		4) KENTUCKY
13) AKRON		13) STONY BROOK

Providence		Brooklyn
6) Baylor		6) Indiana
11) MONMOUTH		11) Oregon State / LSU
3) MIAMI-FL		3) West Virginia
14) NC-WILMINGTON		14) YALE

Des Moines		Raleigh
7) USC		7) Connecticut
10) GONZAGA		10) Wisconsin
2) IOWA		2) North Carolina
15) SOUTH DAKOTA ST		15) NC-ASHEVILLE

WEST – Anaheim		SOUTH – Louisville
Oklahoma City		Raleigh
1) Oklahoma		1) Virginia
16) MONTANA		16) NORTH FLORIDA
8) Saint Joseph’s		8) South Carolina
9) Seton Hall		9) Colorado

Denver		Oklahoma City
5) Duke		5) DAYTON
12) SAN DIEGO STATE		12) TEMPLE
4) Arizona		4) Iowa State
13) HAWAII		13) VALPARAISO

Providence		Spokane
6) Notre Dame		6) Texas A&M
11) Texas Tech / Butler		11) WICHITA STATE
3) Maryland		3) OREGON
14) UAB		14) S.F. AUSTIN

St. Louis		St. Louis
7) California		7) Syracuse
10) Michigan		10) VCU
2) Xavier		2) Michigan State
15) NEW MEXICO ST		15) BELMONT

Bracketology: Wisconsin moves to top line

By Dave OmmenMar 15, 2015, 10:18 AM EDT

13 Comments

Here’s the Selection Sunday morning update:

Wisconsin moves into the final No. 1 seed position in the West Region. The Badgers may need to win the B10 title today to hold it; it’s likely the Selection Committee is building at least two or three brackets today. Beyond the late Big Ten final, Connecticut can still acquire a bid by winning the American Conference title. That would force the final at-large team “IN” right now, to be bumped out. The biggest concern for Virginia is the health of Justin Anderson. He doesn’t appear to be 100-percent, and that could prompt the Committee to reward Wisconsin with the final No. 1 seed. It’s also possible that UVA takes Duke’s spot as the regular-season ACC champ. But it’s hard to argue against the Blue Devils’ road wins at Virginia and at Wisconsin.

As for the bubble, the final seven to nine spots are somewhat of a pick’em. I’ll be going through them again once or twice today; and making a final plan for what happens if Connecticut wins. Television won’t allow earlier ending times for games, and the Committee will be under the gun today. The teams that appear most vulnerable among the final at-large teams: Texas, Colorado State, Boise State, Temple and BYU – along with Indiana, Ole Miss, and LSU, if your so inclined- or even Georgia or Davidson. You get the picture.

We’ll have a final bracket posted later today. It’s Selection Sunday. Enjoy the Madness.

UPDATED: March 15, 2015 | 8:30 a.m. (ET)

Note: Now that we’ve reached Championship Week, teams in CAPS represent the AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc). During conference tournament play, the highest remaining seed will earn the teams auto bid for the bracket until the tournament is completed.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

Texas vs. Colorado State | East Region
Boise State vs. Temple | Midwest Region
LAFAYETTE vs. MANHATTAN | South Region
ROBERT MORRIS vs. HAMPTON | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWEST – Cleveland		EAST – Syracuse
Louisville		Pittsburgh
1) Kentucky		1) Villanova
16) ROB MORRIS / HAMPTON		16) NORTH FLORIDA
8) Oregon		8) NC State
9) Ohio State		9) Dayton

Seattle		Jacksonville
5) West Virginia		5) Arkansas
12) WYOMING		12) WOFFORD
4) Louisville		4) Baylor
13) VALPARAISO		13) HARVARD

Columbus		Pittsburgh
6) Butler		6) Georgetown
11) Boise State / Temple		11) Texas / Colorado St
3) Notre Dame		3) Maryland
14) NORTH DAKOTA ST		14) ALBANY

Omaha		Charlotte
7) Iowa		7) Utah
10) Georgia		10) Oklahoma State
2) Kansas		2) Virginia
15) BELMONT		15) NORTHEASTERN

WEST – Los Angeles		SOUTH – Houston
Charlotte		Charlotte
1) Wisconsin		1) Duke
16) COASTAL CAROLINA		16) LAFAYETTE / MANHATTAN
8) St. John’s		8) VCU
9) Cincinnati		9) Purdue

Jacksonville		Portland
5) Wichita State		5) Providence
12) BUFFALO		12) S.F. AUSTIN
4) North Carolina		4) NORTHERN IOWA
13) Georgia State		13) NEW MEXICO ST

Columbus		Omaha
6) Michigan State		6) SMU
11) Mississippi		11) Indiana
3) Oklahoma		3) IOWA STATE
14) UC-IRVINE		14) EASTERN WASHINGTON

Portland		Seattle
7) Xavier		7) San Diego State
10) Davidson		10) LSU
2) ARIZONA		2) GONZAGA
15) TEXAS-SOUTHERN		15) UAB

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kentucky is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin. Next in line: Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Indiana, Texas, Colorado State, Boise State, Temple

First Five teams out (at large): BYU, Miami-FL, Texas AM, UCLA, Connecticut

Next five teams out (at large): Tulsa, Old Dominion, Murray State, Illinois, Rhode Island

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (7): Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas

ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State

Big East (6): Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, Butler, Xavier, St. John’s

SEC (5): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss

Mountain West (4): WYOMING, San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State

Pac 12 (3): Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU, Dayton, Davidson

American (3): SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Missouri Valley (2): NORTHERN IOWA, Wichita State

West Coast (1): GONZAGA

ONE BID LEAGUES: UAB (C-USA), Georgia State (SBELT), HARVARD (IVY), EASTERN WASHINGTON (BSKY), VALPARAISO (HZN), S.F. AUSTIN (SLND), WOFFORD (STHN), UC-IRVINE (BWEST), BUFFALO (MAC), MANHATTAN (MAAC), NORTH FLORIDA (ASUN), BELMONT (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), COASTAL CAROLINA(BSO), HAMPTON (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO ST (WAC), ALBANY (AEAST), LAFAYETTE (PAT), ROBERT MORRIS (NEC), TEXAS-SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Bracketology: Opportunities for Tulsa, UCLA, Atlantic 10

By Dave OmmenMar 13, 2015, 9:37 AM EDT

Bracketology: Bubble teams can thank Northern Iowa

By Dave OmmenMar 9, 2015, 9:04 AM EDT

2 Comments

When the First Four is revealed on Sunday, one of those teams might want to send a thank-you card to Northern Iowa. Trailing Illinois State at halftime in the Missouri Valley Conference finale, UNI rallied to beat the Redbirds and grab the Valley’s automatic bid. That saved at least one at-large position in the Field of 68.

Today, that team would be Texas; the Longhorns are paired with BYU in a First Four contest; with Indiana and Temple also slotted for a trip to Dayton.

The No. 1 seed line remains in tact: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, and Villanova. Wisconsin and Arizona are next in line; the Badgers looked quite impressive Sunday in Columbus. It appears we have five teams for three spots. That noted, it’s hard to see both Duke and Virginia losing spots on the top line. We’ll see how the ACC tournament goes.

The middle of the bracket remains fluid in terms of final seed position; we could see teams move 1-3 lines over the next several days. And Championship Week will, as it turns out, be a decisive week for several bubble teams.

Housekeeping notes: Now that we’ve reached Championship Week, teams in CAPS represent the AUTOMATIC bid earned in conference tournaments. Exceptions are still made for certain teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc). During conference tournament play, the highest remaining seed will earn the teams auto bid for the bracket until the tournament is completed.

Today’s bracket has a potential regular-season rematch between Indiana and Butler (if IU were to beat Temple in its First Four game). With all of the other bracketing principles in play, other six-seeds paired with IU/Temple would create the same scenario (Georgetown/SMU). BYU requires Thursday-Saturday sites for both pods and regions; so there are limited options (West/Midwest), and Committee would avoid sending a First Four team far away (Seattle/Portland) if at all possible, to reduce travel.

UPDATED: March 9, 2015

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

Texas vs. BYU | Midwest Region
Indiana vs. Temple | Midwest Region
Lafayette vs. St. Francis (NY) | East Region
NORTH FLORIDA vs. Montana | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWEST – Cleveland		EAST – Syracuse
Louisville		Charlotte
1) Kentucky		1) Virginia
16) NO FLORIDA / Montana		16) Lafayette / St. Francis
8) Dayton		8) Xavier
9) NC State		9) Oregon

Jacksonville		Portland
5) Utah		5) Arkansas
12) Texas / BYU		12) Wofford
4) Louisville		4) NORTHERN IOWA
13) Central Michigan		13) Iona

Columbus		Pittsburgh
6) Butler		6) Georgetown
11) Indiana / Temple		11) Davidson
3) Iowa State		3) Maryland
14) Georgia State		14) NC-Central

Columbus		Omaha
7) San Diego State		7) Providence
10) Mississippi		10) Purdue
2) Wisconsin		2) Kansas
15) William & Mary		15) Albany

WEST – Los Angeles		SOUTH – Houston
Pittsburgh		Charlotte
1) Villanova		1) Duke
16) Texas-Southern		16) COASTAL CAROLINA
8) Ohio State		8) VCU
9) Cincinnati		9) Georgia

Jacksonville		Seattle
5) North Carolina		5) Wichita State
12) Valparaiso		12) Stephen F. Austin
4) Baylor		4) West Virginia
13) Louisiana Tech		13) Harvard

Louisville		Omaha
6) Iowa		6) SMU
11) Colorado State		11) Boise State
3) Notre Dame		3) Oklahoma
14) UC-Davis		14) New Mexico State

Portland		Seattle
7) St. John’s		7) Michigan State
10) Oklahoma State		10) LSU
2) Arizona		2) Gonzaga
15) South Dakota State		15) BELMONT

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kentucky is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Virginia, Duke, and Villanova. Next in line: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Colorado State, Indiana, BYU, Temple, Texas

First Five teams out (at large): Texas AM, Miami-FL, Illinois, Tulsa, Old Dominion

Next five teams out (at large): UCLA, Richmond, Green Bay, Murray State, Rhode Island

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (7): Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

ACC (6): Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State

Big East (6): Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier

SEC (5): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss

Pac 12 (3): Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Mountain West (3): Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State

Atlantic 10 (3): Davidson, VCU, Dayton

American (3): SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Missouri Valley (2): NORTHERN IOWA, Wichita State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech

ONE BID LEAGUES: Georgia State (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Montana (BSKY), Valparaiso (HZN), S.F. Austin (SLND), Wofford (STHN), UC-Davis (BWEST), Central Michigan (MAC), Iona (MAAC), NORTH FLORIDA (ASUN), BELMONT (OVC), William & Mary (CAA), COASTAL CAROLINA(BSO), NC-Central (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Albany (AEAST), Lafayette (PAT), St. Francis – NY (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)

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