Preseason Top 25

Top 25 Countdown: No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats

By Rob DausterNov 7, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT

Beginning on October 3rd and running up until November 14th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2014-2015 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package. We continue our countdown today with No. 1 Kentucky.

MORE: 2014-2015 Season Preview Coverage | NBCSports Preseason Top 25 | Preview Schedule

Head Coach: John Calipari

Last Season: 29-11, 12-6 SEC (t-2nd), lost in the national title game to UConn

Key Losses: Julius Randle, James Young

Newcomers: Karl Towns, Trey Lyles, Tyler Ulis, Devin Booker

Projected Lineup

– G: Andrew Harrison, So.
– G: Aaron Harrison, So.
– F: Alex Poythress, Jr.
– F: Karl Towns, Jr.
– C: Willie Cauley-Stein, Jr.
– Bench: Tyler Ulis, Fr.; Trey Lyles, Fr.; Dakari Johnson, So.; Marcus Lee, So.; Devin Booker, Fr., Derek Willis, So.; Dominique Hawkins, So.

They’ll be good because … : They’re loaded.

I mean, we all know this by now, right?

I’m not breaking any news here, am I?

Nine guys on this roster are McDonald’s All-Americans. As many as eight of them could end up being first round draft picks whenever it is they turn pro. We could talk about the fact that John Calipari is being forced into trying a platoon system in an effort to make sure that everyone on his roster is happy with their minutes, but if you really want to get a sense of how deep this Kentucky team is, think about Derek Willis: He’s a 6-foot-9 forward that was, at one time, a top 30 recruit in the country. No. 115, according to Rivals, in the final Class of 2013 rankings.

Derek Willis would start for all but about 25 teams in the country.

He’s essentially a walk-on with the Wildcats.

Think about that.

But they might disappoint because … : There are a number of concerns that I have about this Kentucky teams, so lets roll them out in bullet form:

First and foremost, I’m not convinced that the platoon system is actually going to work. When Kentucky faces teams that they should beat — Grand Canyon and Buffalo and Boston U. — it will be effective because the Wildcats simply are that much more talented. But what happens when they square off with teams that can actually beat them? Will Coach Cal be willing to give Marcus Lee or Trey Lyles their full rotations if they aren’t playing well? Will he be willing to play crunch time minutes without his five best players on the floor? If someone sees their minutes cut, will Cal be able to keep the peace in the locker room?
There is no natural small forward on this team. There are, however, six guys that play the four and the five spot. Alex Poythress is the guy that’s being forced into the role, but his natural position is as an undersized power forward. Lyles is really skilled for a power forward, but he’s a four through and through. Lee is, obviously, a four. The best lineup that Kentucky fields might end up having three guards on the floor. Who gets their minutes cut if Cal plays, say, Tyler Ulis and the Harrisons?
Karl Towns is better than Dakari Johnson and Willie Cauley-Stein. Trey Lyles is better than Poythress and Lee. Ulis may be the best point guard on the roster. What happens if the freshmen end up getting all the minutes?
And lastly, I think that the Harrisons are going to have big years. I think that Aaron will be the team’s best perimeter scorer and Andrew will take control of the team at the point guard spot. But there’s no guarantee that they make that leap.

Outlook: It’s not going to be easy for Coach Cal to keep everyone happy. It’s not going to be easy for him to maintain the chemistry in the locker room. It’s not going to be easy for him to convince a kid that expects to be a first round pick that sitting on the bench in college is a good thing for him just because it’s a good thing for the team, but it’s what Cal is going to have to do.

But I will say this: Coach Cal’s issues are enviable. Having to keep everyone happy because there are too many good players is a much, much better problem to have than finding a way to win with guys that simply aren’t good enough.

Kentucky is the heavy favorite to win the SEC title. Anything less than a league title and a trip to the Final Four would be a disappointment.

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Top 25 Countdown: No. 2 Arizona Wildcats

By Rob DausterNov 6, 2014, 9:37 AM EDT

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source: Getty Images — Rondae Hollis-Jefferson tries to dunk on Gonzaga (Getty Images)

MORE: 2014-2015 Season Preview Coverage | NBCSports Preseason Top 25 | Preview Schedule

Head Coach: Sean Miller

Last Season: 33-5, 15-3 Pac-12 (1st), lost to Wisconsin in the Elite 8

Key Losses: Nick Johnson, Aaron Gordon

Newcomers: Stanley Johnson, Kadeem Allen, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Dusan Ristic, Craig Victor

Projected Lineup

– G: T.J. McConnell, Sr.
– F: Stanley Johnson, Fr.
– F: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, So.
– F: Brandon Ashley, Jr.
– C: Kaleb Tarczewski, Jr.
– Bench: Gabe York, Jr.; Kadeem Allen, Jr.; Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Fr.; Dusan Ristic, Fr.; Craig Victor, Fr.

They’ll be good because … : Finding a way to consistently score against this team is going to be an absolute nightmare, which is crazy to think about considering that the Wildcats lost two of the nation’s best individual defenders in Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson. That should tell you a thing or two about the way that Sean Miller has been able to recruit in recent years, but it also should give you an idea of just how strong the program is that he’s building. What I love about this group, particularly on the defensive end, is the pair of wings that they have — Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. I’d be comfortable having either of those guys matched with any player in the country save for maybe the five or ten best big men in the country. That’s how tough and versatile they are on that end of the floor.

What that does is allow Miller to tinker around with his lineups. If he wants to go big, he can play Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski together along the front line, allowing Arizona to match up with the massive front lines of Kentucky and Texas. But if they want to spread the floor, they can bring on Gabe York or Kadeem Allen alongside T.J. McConnell in the back court, lining Ashley up with Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson up front.

To put it simply, Miller will be able to matchup with any team in the country — whether they play three bigs or four guards — and still have a size advantage and, in all likelihood, more talent without taking a hit defensively. That’s nice.

But they might disappoint because … : If there’s a concern about this Arizona team, it’s going to be their perimeter shooting. It was an issue last season as well, and that was with Nick Johnson, who was the team’s best and most clutch perimeter shooter. McConnell can knock down a three with time and space, and getting Ashley back from the torn ligament in his foot will be huge because of his ability to spread the floor.

But here’s the concern: Johnson is a good, not great, perimeter shooter and Hollis-Jefferson was the kind of guy you didn’t bother guarding beyond 10 feet. York can be a lights-out shooter from deep, but he’s streaky and a concern on the defensive end of the floor. Allen, a JuCo transfer, has a reputation for being a big time scorer, but he’s more of a slasher than a spot-up shooter.

One other thing that might become an issue: Arizona doesn’t really have a go-to guy offensively. I think Johnson is terrific, and he’s certainly a better offensive player than Aaron Gordon was, but I’ll be curious to see how he transitions on that end of the floor to the college level. What makes Johnson so special is his versatility and the fact that there really isn’t anything on the basketball court that he struggles with. I’m not convinced he’s a great one-on-one scorer.

Outlook: It would be a shock to me if anyone other than Arizona won the Pac-12 this season. That’s how good this Arizona team is when compared to the rest of the teams in the conference. They’ll drop a couple of games here and there in league play, but I would not be surprised to see the Wildcats win the conference by four games when it is all said and done.

On paper, Kentucky is the best team in the country. They’re deep, they’re talented and they have a ton of guys that will be playing for NBA paychecks in the not-so-distant future. It’s correct to say that Kentucky is the odds-on favorite to win the national title, but Arizona is not all that far behind them. If we know anything about a team coached by Miller, it’s that they are going to be tough as nails, particularly on the defensive end, and they are going to execute offensively.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, Miller should get this team to the Final Four this season.

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Top 25 Countdown: No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers

By Rob DausterNov 5, 2014, 8:33 PM EDT

Top 25 Countdown: No. 4 Duke Blue Devils

By Rob DausterNov 4, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT

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MORE: 2014-2015 Season Preview Coverage | NBCSports Preseason Top 25 | Preview Schedule

Head Coach: Mike Krzyzewski

Last Season: 26-9, 13-5 ACC (3rd), lost to Mercer in the Round of 64

Key Losses: Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton

Newcomers: Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, Grayson Allen

Projected Lineup

– G: Tyus Jones, Fr.
– G: Quinn Cook, Sr.
– G: Rasheed Sulaimon, Jr.
– F: Amile Jefferson, Jr.
– C: Jahlil Okafor, Fr.
– Bench: Justise Winslow, Fr.; Grayson Allen, Fr.; Matt Jones, So.; Marshall Plumlee, Jr.; Semi Ojeleye, So.

They’ll be good because … : The Blue Devils have has much talent on their roster as anyone in the country, and that includes Kentucky. The Wildcats have nine McDonalds All-Americans on their roster, which just so happens to be the same number that Coach K has collected in Durham. Jabari Parker is no longer with Duke, but the team is headlined, once again, by freshman from Chicago that is expected to compete for All-American awards this year. Jahlil Okafor is the best low-post player to come through the high school ranks in a long time, and he’ll be the anchor for this group offensively. Don’t be surprised to see him average somewhere in the neighborhood of 17 points and 10 boards.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Duke’s back court is absolutely loaded this year. Quinn Cook is a two-year starter at the point for the Blue Devils, and he may not even be the best point guard on the roster. Tyus Jones, who came to Duke in a package deal with Okafor, is expected to have the ball in his hands the majority of the time this season. Rasheed Sulaimon and Matt Jones are back as well, and they’ll be pushed for playing time by Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen, two more burger boys. Don’t be surprised to see Duke play with four guards at times this season, using Winslow at the four, in order to get their five best players on the floor at the same time.

But they might disappoint because … : There are two real question marks with this Duke team, the biggest of which has to do with how some veterans are going to accept a younger generation. Quinn Cook is a senior and has been the starting point guard for the Blue Devils for the past two seasons, but he may end up ceding that role to Tyus Jones this year. That doesn’t mean that Cook won’t see significant minutes — he actually would be a pretty good fit playing off-guard — but it will be a very different role. And he won’t be alone, either, as freshmen Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen are going to be pushing the like of Rasheed Sulaimon and Matt Jones — and Cook — for minutes. How will the vets handle it if their minutes are taken away? Will Sulaimon be able to bounce back from a rough sophomore season?

The other issue is front court depth. Jahlil Okafor is going to be a star. You won’t find anyone willing to argue that fact. But beyond that, there are question marks. Amile Jefferson had a better-than-expected sophomore season, particularly with his work on the glass, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s an undersized four that is limited offensively. He won’t be spreading the floor and creating space for Okafor on the block. Marshall Plumlee, another seven-footer, won’t be doing that, either. And Ojeleye? He wasn’t much more than a dunker as a freshman. That’s it when it comes to front court players. It will be interesting to see just how much of a supporting cast Okafor has there.

Outlook: It’s going to be interesting to see how Coach K uses this roster this season. I’d expect them to look similar to the Ohio State team from 2010-2011, back when Jared Sullinger and Aaron Craft were freshman. Thad Matta surrounded Sullinger, another phenomenal low-post scorer, with four guards that could all hit open threes and dared teams to try and double-team the big fella. I could see Duke doing something similar with Jahlil Okafor, using Justise Winslow or even a guy like Rasheed Sulaimon or Grayson Allen at the four.

The difference between that Ohio State team and this Duke team is that those Buckeyes could grind defensively with the best of them. Duke is going to get out and pressure the ball in their man-to-man this season, the way that they always have done under Coach K. They’re not going to let you run your sets. But I’m not sure how many really good on-ball defenders they have in their back court. The ACC is absolutely loaded at the top this season, with North Carolina, Virginia and Louisville all capable of winning a league title. For my money, Duke is the favorite. But it will, by no means, be a cakewalk. They might make a Final Four despite finishing fourth in their conference.

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