As we will do every day throughout the rest of the season, here is a look at how college basketball’s bubble teams fared on Saturday.
It’s worth reminding you here that the way winning are labeled have changed this season. Instead of looking at all top 50 wins equally, the selection committee will be using criteria that breaks wins down into four quadrants, using the RPI:
- Quadrant 1: Home vs. 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Road vs. 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home vs. 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Road vs. 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home vs. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Road vs. 136-240
- Quadrant 4: Home vs. 161 plus, Neutral vs. 201 plus, Road vs. 240 plus
The latest NBC Sports Bracketology can be found here.
FLORIDA (RPI: 63, KenPom: 32, NBC seed: 9): Florida landed a massive win on Saturday night, picking off Auburn at home. They now have eight Quadrant 1 wins, including Gonzaga and Cincinnati on neutral courts, Texas A&M and Kentucky on the road and, now, Auburn at home. With two Quadrant 1 games left, I think the Gators are just about a lock.
LOUISVILLE (RPI: 39, KenPom: 32, NBC seed: Next four out): The Cardinals landed a big, big win on Saturday afternoon as they went into Virginia Tech and picked up a win. It’s their third Quadrant 1 win and the 19-10 Cards now have a 5-10 record against the top two Quadrants. I still think Louisville needs to win at least two more games. Next week, they play Virginia at home and at N.C. State before the ACC tournament commences.
TEXAS (RPI: 51, KenPom: 43, NBC seed: Play-in game): Texas landed a massive win on Saturday at home against Oklahoma State for one, simple reason: Losing to the Pokes would have been a disaster. Texas is 5-9 against Quadrant 1 opponents and they have eight wins against the top two quadrants with no bad losses. But they are 17-12 on the season and 7-9 in the Big 12 with games left at Kansas and at home against West Virginia. They could not afford to add a Quadrant 3 loss to their profile. As it stands, I think they are in if they beat West Virginia and win their first game in the Big 12 tournament.
ST. BONAVENTURE (RPI: 26, KenPom: 69, NBC seed: 12): The Bonnies added another Quadrant 2 win to their résumé on Saturday as they went into Richmond and knocked off VCU. They are now 4-2 against Quadrant 1 — with a win over Rhode Island — also a season-opening loss to Niagara is weighing their chances down. I’ve said all along, they need to win out in the regular season and, ideally, lose to URI in the Atlantic 10 tournament if they want an at-large.
SAINT MARY’S (RPI: 37, KenPom: 22, NBC seed: 11): I don’t think that the Gaels will be in real danger of missing the NCAA tournament unless they take a truly terrible loss in the WCC tournament, but I think it is pointing out just how flimsy their profile is. They’ve played just one Quadrant 1 game this season, their win at Gonzaga, and are just 3-2 against the top two Quadrants with two Quadrant 3 losses.
PROVIDENCE (RPI: 43, KenPom: 71, NBC seed: 10): The Friars avoided what could have been a disastrous loss by handing on to beat Georgetown in Washington D.C. on Saturday. The Friars had lost two in a row — at Butler and Seton Hall at home — and play at Xavier on Wednesday, meaning that they would be staring a four-game losing streak in the face had they lost at Georgetown. As it stands, Providence is 3-7 against Quadrant 1, which includes home wins over Xavier and Villanova, but they’ve also lost two Quadrant 3 and one Quadrant 4 games.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (RPI: , KenPom: 43, NBC seed: 11): Middle Tennessee has had some good things happen to them in recent days. Belmont and Murray State have both climbed into the top 75 of the RPI, meaning that the Blue Raiders have gone from having one Quadrant 1 win to three Quadrant 1 wins. At the same time, Belmont is now 76th in the RPI. If they climb into the top 75, they will no longer be a Quadrant 3 loss for MTSU. These are the dangers of grouping. Regardless, the way I see it, MTSU has to win out and lose to either Western Kentucky or Old Dominion in the CUSA tournament if they want an at-large bid.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (RPI: 56, KenPom: 50, NBC seed: Next four out): The Bulldogs continue to creep closer to the bubble, but their biggest issue at this point is that they only have one win that can truly be looked at as a good win: at Texas A&M. MSU has a second Quadrant 1 win, but it is at South Carolina, who is 73rd in the RPI. They really need to beat Tennessee at home on Tuesday.
SETON HALL (RPI: 21, KenPom: 31, NBC seed: 8): Seton Hall stumbled their way onto the bubble by losing four straight to start February, but they’re rebounded with three straight wins. Surviving a postponed game at Providence might have been what put the Pirates in the Dance. I think they are a lock with one more win.
OKLAHOMA (RPI: 33, KenPom: 39, NBC seed: 10): The losing streak is over. The Sooners snapped a six-game skid by beating Kansas State at home. They are now 6-8 against Quadrant 1 and 9-11 against the top two Quadrants. I still think their margin for error is slim given that they still play Iowa State in the regular season, but for my money, they’re in with two more wins, including the Big 12 tournament, and right on the cut-line in with one more win.
TEXAS A&M (RPI: 25, KenPom: 31, NBC seed: 9): The Aggies snapped a three-game losing streak by going into Vanderbilt and getting a win. The biggest issue for the Aggies right now is that it is hard to project how the committee is going to value their roster. They’ve had more suspensions and injuries than anyone I can remember. I think it would behoove them to win out in the regular season. That would get them to 20-11 overall and 9-9 in the SEC.
USC (RPI: 29, KenPom: 51, NBC seed: First four out): USC has now won four straight games after sweeping the mountain schools this week. The loss to Princeton could be a killer for them — there are not many bubble teams with a Quadrant 4 loss to their name — but the Trojans were without two rotation players in that game. They are now 7-8 against the top two Quadrants. The biggest issue for USC at this point is that they just don’t have much in the way of quality wins. Beating Utah is just their second Quadrant 1 win because New Mexico State, who USC beat in the title game of the Diamond Head Classic, fell out of the top 50. A win over Middle Tennessee State on a neutral is their only other Quadrant 1 win.
WASHINGTON (RPI: 51, KenPom: 96, NBC seed: Last four in): Washington avoided disaster by beating Cal on Saturday. They’ll need to do the same next week against Oregon State and Oregon. If they can do that, the Huskies will have a shot. They are 3-3 against Quadrant 1 opponents but they also have two Quadrant 3 losses to their name. That win over Kansas in Kansas City looks better and better.
MIAMI (RPI: 28, KenPom: 39, NBC seed: 8): The Hurricanes overcame a late deficit to knock off Boston College at home, which is big considering that Miami had been sliding of slide. Before this week, they had lost three straight games and are now 20-8 on the season. They are 4-4 against Quadrant 1 with a Quadrant 3 loss, and it is worth noting that they don’t really have any great wins: Middle Tennessee on a neutral, at N.C. State, at Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame. I think they’re closer to the bubble than you might think.
TCU (RPI: 20, KenPom: 21, NBC seed: 9): The Horned Frogs have just about punched their ticket. A win over Baylor today was yet another good win. They now have four Quadrant 1 and four Quadrant 2 wins without a single loss outside the top two Quadrants. If they lose out it will be interesting, so I would say they need one more win to lock up a bid.
VIRGINIA TECH (RPI: 56, KenPom: 35, NBC seed: 9): Virginia Tech is still in a pretty good spot, but they certainly didn’t help themselves by losing at home against Louisville. The good thing for the Hokies is that they are 4-6 against Quadrant 1 with the single-best win in college basketball this season — a win at Virginia. But a non-conference SOS in the 320s and a Quadrant 3 loss puts them in a more difficult position than you would think. If they beat Duke at home or win at Miami next week, they’ll be fine no matter what happens in the ACC tournament. If they lose both, then it gets interesting.
LSU (RPI: 75, KenPom: 63, NBC seed: Play-in game): The Tigers had their two-game winning streak snapped at Georgia on Saturday. On the one hand, that’s a Quadrant 1 loss. It doesn’t exactly hurt them. On the other hand, for a team that is already on the margins — they are 16-12 overall and 7-9 in the SEC with a Quadrant 3 loss — any quality win they can add is important. I think they need to win at least three more games to really feel comfortable.
BAYLOR (RPI: 58, KenPom: 38, NBC seed: Play-in game): The Bears lost their second straight game on Saturday, falling to 16-12 overall and 7-9 in the Big 12. They are in a tough spot now. They have four Quadrant 1 wins but they are just 4-10 in those Quadrant 1 games. All 12 of their losses, however, are “good” losses, and they still play Oklahoma at home and Kansas State on the road before the Big 12 tournament. I don’t think they can get a big with 14 losses, so I think they need to win two more during the regular season and maybe another one in the Big 12 tournament.
KANSAS STATE (RPI: 55, KenPom: 47, NBC seed: 10): Losing at Oklahoma isn’t a killer for Kansas State by any stretch. They are now 20-9 on the season, with a 3-8 mark against Quadrant 1 and six Quadrant 2 wins. The big issue they have is that there is that home loss to Tulsa — that’s a Quadrant 3 loss, but Tulsa is 79th in the RPI and if they make it into the top 75 it will be Quadrant 2 — as well as a non-conference SOS that’s in the 310s. Throw in an RPI in the 50s, and the Wildcats need to at least split down the stretch to really feel confident.
UTAH (RPI: 49, KenPom: 59, NBC seed: First four out): Utah had a chance to play their way into the conversation if they had won out during the regular season and maybe won a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament. I guess there is still a chance, but for my money, the Utes should plan on winning the automatic bid for the Pac-12 if they want to go dancing.
MARQUETTE (RPI: 64, KenPom: 52, NBC seed: First four out): Marquette took their worst loss of the season on Saturday afternoon, going into Chicago and losing at DePaul, the first Quadrant 3 loss for the Golden Eagles. They are now 16-12 on the season and 7-9 in the Big East with just four Quadrant 1 wins. I don’t think the dream is dead yet, but the biggest issue Marquette currently faces is that they cannot help themselves without winning a game or two in the Big East tournament.
SMU (RPI: 94, KenPom: 75, NBC seed: Out): I’m only mentioning SMU here because I think it’s worth nothing that they’ve lost six of their last seven while Shake Milton has been out with a broken hand. At 16-13 overall and 6-10 in the American, it may not matter. But they did win by 23 points at Wichita State with him healthy. It’s at least worth being aware of.