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Bracketology: Welcome to the top line, San Diego State

By Dave OmmenJan 20, 2020, 1:30 PM EST

Here is the latest NCAA tournament bracketology projection.

Welcome to the top line, San Diego State. The Aztecs join Baylor, Gonzaga, and Kansas as No. 1 seeds in our latest bracket update. SDSU remains the only unbeaten team in college hoops, buoyed by wins over tournament teams Iowa, Creighton and BYU.

The West-leaning geographical slate of top seeds means someone has to go East. As SDSU is the fourth overall seed, that adventure belongs to them. Several additional power conference teams are pushing for the top line, too – including Florida State, Michigan State and surging Seton Hall. And let’s not forget about Louisville, a preseason top seed. The Cardinals put together an impressive road win at Duke on Saturday.

The latest look at where our NCAA tournament bracketology projection stands …

UPDATED: January 20, 2020

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
EAST REGION	Virginia Tech vs. Georgetown
WEST REGION	NC State vs. VCU
SOUTH REGION	PR VIEW-AM vs. NORFOLK ST
WEST REGION	MONMOUTH vs. ST. FRANCIS (PA)

SOUTH – Houston		WEST – Los Angeles
Omaha		Spokane
1) BAYLOR		1) GONZAGA
16) PV-AM / NORFOLK ST		16) MONMOUTH / ST. FRANCIS (PA)
8) Arkansas		8) Illinois
9) Memphis		9) HOUSTON

Tampa		Sacramento
5) Colorado		5) Arizona
12) EAST TENNESSEE ST		12) NC State / VCU
4) Maryland		4) Iowa
13) S.F. AUSTIN		13) NEW MEXICO ST

St. Louis		Greensboro
6) Marquette		6) Michigan
11) NORTHERN IOWA		11) Saint Mary’s
3) LOUISVILLE		3) Duke
14) NORTH TEXAS		14) LITTLE ROCK

Albany		Spokane
7) Wisconsin		7) LSU
10) USC		10) Oklahoma
2) SETON HALL		2) Oregon
15) WILLIAM-MARY		15) UC-IRVINE

EAST – New York		MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Sacramento		Omaha
1) SAN DIEGO STATE		1) Kansas
16) RADFORD		16) MONTANA
8) Rutgers		8) Indiana
9) STANFORD		9) Florida

Albany		Cleveland
5) Kentucky		5) Creighton
12) LIBERTY		12) YALE
4) Villanova		4) DAYTON
13) AKRON		13) VERMONT

Greensboro		St. Louis
6) Penn State		6) Auburn
11) Virginia Tech / Georgetown		11) BYU
3) West Virginia		3) Butler
14) COLGATE		14) WRIGHT STATE

Tampa		Cleveland
7) Ohio State		7) Wichita State
10) DePaul		10) Texas Tech
2) Florida State		2) MICHIGAN STATE
15) AUSTIN PEAY		15) NORTH DAKOTA ST

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes	Last 4 IN	First 4 OUT	Next 4 OUT
USC	Virginia Tech	Purdue	Washington
DePaul	NC State	Minnesota	Saint Louis
Saint Mary’s	Georgetown	Arizona State	St. John’s
BYU	VCU	Xavier	Richmond

Top Seed Line
Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas, San Diego State
Seed List

Breakdown by Conference …
Big Ten (10)
Big East (7)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Big 12 (5)
Pac 12 (5)
American (3)
West Coast (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Mountain West (1)

Bracketology: Duke grabs No. 1 overall seed

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By Dave OmmenMar 17, 2019, 9:47 AM EDT

1 Comment

We could well be in for a few surprises when the Selection Committee announces its pairings this evening. Duke being the No. 1 overall seed will not be one of them.

As for the remaining No. 1 seeds, Virginia seems like a sure bet for No. 2 overall, slotted to the South. Then, the debate begins. North Carolina is playing as well as anyone. Gonzaga lost only three games all season, although two of those were to UNC and Tennessee. The final spots will likely come down to UNC, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Michigan State, if the Spartans beat Michigan a third time. We’ve also seen the Committee make a final decision about the Big 10 before the game is played.

Oregon threw one final wrench into the bubble last night by beating Washington in the Pac-12 title game. Who the Ducks knocked out remains to be seen. It could have been one the quality mid-majors on the board, or it could even be conference foe Arizona State. Enjoy your Selection Sunday.

UPDATED: March 17, 2019

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
EAST REGION	St. John’s vs. Arizona State
WEST REGION	Temple vs. Ohio State
SOUTH REGION	IONA vs. FAIR-DICKINSON
EAST REGION	NO DAKOTA ST vs. NC CENTRAL

EAST – Washington, DC		SOUTH – Louisville
Columbia		Columbia
1) DUKE		1) Virginia
16) IONA / FDU		16) PRAIRIE VIEW
8) Ole Miss		8) Seton Hall
9) UCF		9) Baylor

Hartford		Hartford
5) VILLANOVA		5) Kansas State
12) LIBERTY		12) MURRAY STATE
4) IOWA STATE		4) Purdue
13) NORTHEASTERN		13) VERMONT

Tulsa		Salt Lake City
6) Cincinnati		6) Maryland
11) Arizona St / St. John’s		11) VCU
3) LSU		3) Texas Tech
14) YALE		14) SAINT LOUIS

Des Moines		Columbus
7) Louisville		7) BUFFALO
10) Oklahoma		10) Washington
2) Michigan		2) Kentucky
15) COLGATE		15) GARDNER-WEBB

WEST – Anaheim		MIDWEST – Kansas City
Columbus		Jacksonville
1) Tennessee		1) North Carolina
16) AB CHRISTIAN		16) NC CENTRAL / ND STATE
8) Minnesota		8) Iowa
9) Syracuse		9) UTAH STATE

San Jose		San Jose
5) Virginia Tech		5) Marquette
12) NEW MEXICO ST		12) SAINT MARY’S
4) Wisconsin		4) Kansas
13) UC-IRVINE		13) OLD DOMINION

Jacksonville		Tulsa
6) Mississippi State		6) AUBURN
11) Temple / Ohio State		11) OREGON
3) Florida State		3) Houston
14) GEORGIA STATE		14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY

Salt Lake City		Des Moines
7) Nevada		7) WOFFORD
10) Florida		10) TCU
2) Gonzaga		2) Michigan State
15) MONTANA		15) BRADLEY

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes	Last 4 IN	First 4 OUT	Next 4 OUT
Washington	Ohio State	Belmont	NC Greensboro
TCU	Temple	NC State	Furman
Florida	St. John’s	Indiana	Xavier
VCU	Arizona State	Alabama	Texas

TOP SEED LINE: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (8): Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State

SEC (7): AUBURN, Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida

ACC (7): DUKE, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

BIG 12 (7): IOWA STATE, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU

Big East (4): VILLANOVA, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John’s

American (4): Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, Temple

Pac 12 (3): OREGON, Washington, Arizona State

Mountain West (2): UTAH STATE, Nevada

West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga

Atlantic 10 (2): SAINT LOUIS, VCU

Southern (1): WOFFORD

Mid American (1): BUFFALO

ONE BID LEAGUES: BRADLEY (MVC), IONA (MAAC), OLD DOMINION (C-USA), GEORGIA STATE (SBELT), YALE (IVY), MONTANA (BSKY), NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON), ABILENE CHRISTIAN (SLND), UC-IRVINE (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), GARDNER-WEBB (BSO), NC CENTRAL (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC), VERMONT (AEAST), COLGATE (PAT), FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON (NEC), PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.

Bracketology: Duke once again a No. 1 seed

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

By Dave OmmenMar 16, 2019, 10:41 AM EDT

2 Comments

With a host of changes coming today as conference champions are crowned, we’ll keep this brief.

Duke likely solidified a No. 1 seed by beating North Carolina; the Blue Devils will be evaluated with their full team intact. Now it’s a race for the final two spots on the top line – Kentucky, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Michigan State and Tennessee are all in play. I stuck with Gonzaga this morning, but the Committee could easily put three ACC teams in that position if Kentucky or Michigan State fall short of conference tourney titles. Let’s see how the day plays out.

By my count, we have five potential bid thieves in play today – so the cutline could change by two or three spots come tomorrow morning.

Championship Week: Teams in all CAPS reflect automatic bid (exceptions made to traditional teams with acronyms (VCU, UCF, etc.)

UPDATED: March 16, 2019

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
SOUTH REGION	St. John’s vs. Arizona State
WEST REGION	Temple vs. Belmont
SOUTH REGION	IONA vs. FAIR-DICKINSON
EAST REGION	NO DAKOTA ST vs. Norfolk State

EAST – Washington, DC		SOUTH – Louisville
Columbia		Columbia
1) Virginia		1) Duke
16) ND STATE / Norfolk State		16) Abilene Christian
8) Iowa		8) Ole Miss
9) UCF		9) Washington

San Jose		Hartford
5) Villanova		5) Marquette
12) SAINT MARY’S		12) MURRAY STATE
4) Kansas State		4) Purdue
13) Vermont		13) NORTHEASTERN

Tulsa		Tulsa
6) Cincinnati		6) Iowa State
11) TCU		11) Florida
3) LSU		3) Houston
14) Georgia State		14) Old Dominion

Des Moines		Columbus
7) Louisville		7) WOFFORD
10) Utah State		10) VCU
2) Michigan		2) Tennessee
15) GARDNER-WEBB		15) COLGATE

WEST – Anaheim		MIDWEST – Kansas City
Salt Lake City		Columbus
1) Gonzaga		1) Kentucky
16) Prairie View AM		16) IONA / FDU
8) Minnesota		8) Seton Hall
9) Syracuse		9) Baylor

San Jose		Hartford
5) Mississippi State		5) Virginia Tech
12) New Mexico State		12) Davidson
4) Texas Tech		4) Wisconsin
13) UC-IRVINE		13) LIBERTY

Jacksonville		Salt Lake City
6) Auburn		6) Maryland
11) Temple / Belmont		11) St. John’s / Arizona State
3) Florida State		3) Kansas
14) Harvard		14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY

Des Moines		Jacksonville
7) Nevada		7) Buffalo
10) Oklahoma		10) Ohio State
2) Michigan State		2) North Carolina
15) Montana		15) BRADLEY

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes	Last 4 IN	First 4 OUT	Next 4 OUT
VCU	Temple	NC State	Furman
Ohio State	St. John’s	Indiana	Xavier
Florida	Arizona State	Alabama	Oregon
TCU	Belmont	NC Greensboro	Texas

TOP SEED LINE: Virginia is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Duke, Kentucky, and Gonzaga

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (8): MICHIGAN STATE, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio State

SEC (7): KENTUCKY, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida

ACC (7): DUKE, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

BIG 12 (7): KANSAS, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU

Big East (4): VILLANOVA, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John’s

American (4): HOUSTON, Cincinnati, UCF, Temple

Pac 12 (2): WASHINGTON, Arizona State

Mountain West (2): UTAH STATE, Nevada

West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga

Atlantic 10 (2): DAVIDSON, VCU

Southern (1): WOFFORD

Mid American (1): BUFFALO

ONE BID LEAGUES: BRADLEY (MVC), IONA (MAAC), Old Dominion (C-USA), Georgia State (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Montana (BSKY), NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON), Abilene Christian (SLND), UC-Irvine (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), GARDNER-WEBB (BSO), Norfolk State (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), COLGATE (PAT), FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON (NEC), Prairie View (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.

Bracketology: Zion’s impact for Duke

AP Photo/Gerry Broome

By Dave OmmenMar 15, 2019, 9:36 AM EDT

2 Comments

Zion Williamson returned to Duke’s lineup Thursday night and put on quite a show with the Selection Committee watching in New York. If the Blue Devils beat North Carolina in the ACC semifinals, they will likely be a No. 1 seed on Sunday night.

Other teams in play for the top line? That would be your aforementioned Tar Heels, who could all but wrap up a No. 1 seed themselves by ousting the Blue Devils a third time. We also have Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU from the SEC and Michigan State from the Big 10.

Hefty debates continue along the cutline. There are a couple of major conference bid thieves still alive (West Virginia, Nebraska). Xavier is surging in the Big East. And favorites in the Mid American, Mountain West, and Atlantic 10 continue play today.

Let’s see how the next 24 hours play out.

Championship Week: Teams in all CAPS reflect automatic bid (exceptions made to traditional teams with acronyms (VCU, UCF, etc.)

UPDATED: March 15, 2019 | 7:00 a.m. ET

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
SOUTH REGION	Florida vs. Belmont
EAST REGION	TCU vs. Alabama
EAST REGION	IONA vs. FAIR-DICKINSON
WEST REGION	NO DAKOTA ST vs. Norfolk State

EAST – Washington, DC		WEST – Anaheim
Columbia		Salt Lake City
1) Virginia		1) Gonzaga
16) IONA / FDU		16) NO DAKOTA ST / Norfolk St
8) Seton Hall		8) Iowa
9) Washington		9) Baylor

San Jose		San Jose
5) Mississippi State		5) Nevada
12) MURRAY STATE		12) New Mexico St
4) Kansas State		4) Florida State
13) NORTHEASTERN		13) UC-Irvine

Des Moines		Tulsa
6) Cincinnati		6) Auburn
11) TCU / Alabama		11) Temple
3) Michigan		3) Texas Tech
14) Old Dominion		14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY

Jacksonville		Des Moines
7) Louisville		7) WOFFORD
10) Minnesota		10) Utah State
2) LSU		2) Michigan State
15) COLGATE		15) BRADLEY

MIDWEST – Kansas City		SOUTH – Louisville
Columbus		Columbia
1) Kentucky		1) North Carolina
16) Prairie View AM		16) Sam Houston State
8) UCF		8) VCU
9) Syracuse		9) Ole Miss

Hartford		Hartford
5) Virginia Tech		5) Marquette
12) SAINT MARY’S		12) Florida / Belmont
4) Wisconsin		4) Kansas
13) LIBERTY		13) Vermont

Salt Lake City		Tulsa
6) Maryland		6) Villanova
11) St. John’s		11) Arizona State
3) Houston		3) Purdue
14) Montana		14) Georgia State

Jacksonville		Columbus
7) Iowa State		7) Buffalo
10) Ohio State		10) Oklahoma
2) Duke		2) Tennessee
15) Harvard		15) GARDNER-WEBB

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes	Last 4 IN	First 4 OUT	Next 4 OUT
Ohio State	TCU	NC State	Xavier
Temple	Alabama	Indiana	Creighton
Arizona State	Florida	NC Greensboro	Georgetown
St. John’s	Belmont	Furman	Clemson

TOP SEED LINE: Virginia is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Gonzaga, North Carolina, and Kentucky

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (8): MICHIGAN STATE, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State

SEC (8): LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida

ACC (7): VIRGINIA, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

BIG 12 (7): KANSAS STATE, Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU

Big East (4): VILLANOVA, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John’s

American (4): HOUSTON, Cincinnati, UCF, Temple

Pac 12 (2): WASHINGTON, Arizona State

Mountain West (2): NEVADA, Utah State

West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga

Southern (1): WOFFORD

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU

Mid American (1): BUFFALO

ONE BID LEAGUES: BRADLEY (MVC), IONA (MAAC), Old Dominion (C-USA), Georgia State (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Montana (BSKY), NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON), Sam Houston State (SLND), UC-Irvine (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), GARDNER-WEBB (BSO), Norfolk State (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), COLGATE (PAT), FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON (NEC), Prairie View (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.

Bracketology: The battle for No. 1 seeds begins

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

By Dave OmmenMar 14, 2019, 9:46 AM EDT

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
SOUTH REGION	Ohio State vs. NC State
MIDWEST REGION	Creighton vs. Indiana
EAST REGION	IONA vs. FAIR-DICKINSON
WEST REGION	NO DAKOTA ST vs. Norfolk State

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes	Last 4 IN	First 4 OUT	Next 4 OUT
Temple	Indiana	Georgetown	Furman
Minnesota	Ohio State	Belmont	Florida
TCU	NC State	NC Greensboro	Alabama
Arizona State	Creighton	Clemson	Texas

Bracketology: Saint Mary’s crashes dance

AP Photo

By Dave OmmenMar 13, 2019, 9:27 AM EDT

3 Comments

And so it begins …

Saint Mary’s upset Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final Tuesday night, crashing into the Dance and leaving a yet unknown bubble team in its wake. We could be in for a wild few days.

Bubble action revs up today as power conference tournaments advance. Nowhere is that more true than in the Big East, ACC, and Big 12. Tomorrow, additional bubble teams take the court in the Big Ten and SEC. Stay tuned.

Championship Week: Teams in all CAPS reflect automatic bid (exceptions made to traditional teams with acronyms (VCU, UCF, etc.)

UPDATED: March 13, 2019

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
SOUTH REGION	Ohio State vs. Clemson
MIDWEST REGION	Creighton vs. Indiana
EAST REGION	IONA vs. FAIR-DICKINSON
WEST REGION	NO DAKOTA ST vs. Norfolk State

EAST – Washington, DC		WEST – Anaheim
Columbia		Salt Lake City
1) Virginia		1) Gonzaga
16) IONA / FDU		16) NO DAKOTA ST / Norfolk St
8) Ole Miss		8) Iowa
9) VCU		9) Baylor

San Jose		Hartford
5) Maryland		5) Mississippi State
12) SAINT MARY’S		12) LIBERTY
4) Kansas State		4) Florida State
13) New Mexico State		13) Vermont

Des Moines		Tulsa
6) Cincinnati		6) Nevada
11) Arizona State		11) St. John’s
3) Michigan		3) Texas Tech
14) NORTHEASTERN		14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY

Jacksonville		Des Moines
7) Louisville		7) WOFFORD
10) Utah State		10) Syracuse
2) LSU		2) Michigan State
15) Colgate		15) BRADLEY

MIDWEST – Kansas City		SOUTH – Louisville
Columbus		Columbia
1) Kentucky		1) North Carolina
16) Prairie View AM		16) Sam Houston State
8) Oklahoma		8) UCF
9) Seton Hall		9) Washington

Hartford		San Jose
5) Virginia Tech		5) Marquette
12) MURRAY STATE		12) Ohio State / Clemson
4) Wisconsin		4) Kansas
13) Old Dominion		13) UC-Irvine

Salt Lake City		Tulsa
6) Auburn		6) Villanova
11) Indiana / Creighton		11) TCU
3) Houston		3) Purdue
14) Montana		14) Georgia State

Jacksonville		Columbus
7) Iowa State		7) Buffalo
10) Minnesota		10) Temple
2) Duke		2) Tennessee
15) Harvard		15) GARDNER-WEBB

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes	Last 4 IN	First 4 OUT	Next 4 OUT
Minnesota	Indiana	NC State	Furman
TCU	Ohio State	Georgetown	Florida
St. John’s	Creighton	Belmont	Alabama
Arizona State	Clemson	NC-Greensboro	Texas

TOP SEED LINE: Virginia is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Gonzaga, North Carolina, and Kentucky

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (9): MICHIGAN STATE, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State

ACC (8): VIRGINIA, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Clemson

BIG 12 (7): TEXAS TECH, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU

SEC (6): LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss

Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Creighton

American (4): HOUSTON, Cincinnati, UCF, Temple

Pac 12 (2): WASHINGTON, Arizona State

Mountain West (2): NEVADA, Utah State

West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga

Southern (1): WOFFORD

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU

Mid American (1): BUFFALO

ONE BID LEAGUES: BRADLEY (MVC), IONA (MAAC), Old Dominion (C-USA), Georgia State (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Montana (BSKY), NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON), Sam Houston State (SLND), UC-Irvine (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), GARDNER-WEBB (BSO), Norfolk State (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Colgate (PAT), FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON (NEC), Prairie View (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.