No. 8 SETON HALL at No. 11 CREIGHTON, Sat. 2:30 p.m. (FOX)
- KENPOM: Creighton 77, Seton Hall 74
- TORVIK: Creighton 79, Seton Hall 73
- HASLAM: Creighton 80, Seton Hall 74
It will be very hard for me to be on Seton Hall in this spot. I do think that the Pirates matchup with the Bluejays really well, and Kevin Willard’s club has actually performed pretty well away from home this season. They’ll be ready to play, too — a win means that they win the Big East regular season title outright, and that matters.
That said, Creighton has only lost one game at home this season — Villanova — and none of their wins were by a single possession. They run people out of Omaha. It’s what they do. And they won the first matchup in Newark, 87-82.
BEST BET: If this line opens up around Creighton (-2.5) or (-3), the value will probably be on the Bluejays. But I think it’ll be closer to (-4), at which point I will probably stay away from a side. I want to be on the over. Creighton shoots it very well at home, and I fully expect Seton Hall to play their best. These are two high-powered offenses, especially on the nights when Myles Powell gets it going. Shootout, anyone?
SATURDAY UPDATE*: Creighton is (-3.5), so I think that the best should be the Bluejays. That said, the over still seems like the best (and most fun) bet to make today.
No. 14 VILLANOVA at GEORGETOWN, Sat. 12:00 p.m. (FOX)
- KENPOM: Villanova 75, Georgetown 72
- TORVIK: Villanova 75, Georgetown 71
- HASLAM: Villanova 75, Georgetown 69
Villanova is coming off of a win at Seton Hall that kept them in the mix for the Big East regular season title. Seton Hall and Creighton tip off after this game ends, which means that Villanova will still have a chance to win a share of the league title. Georgetown has spent the last two months playing with just seven scholarship players on the nights where Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven are actually healthy. The Hoyas are off the bubble by now and are locked into a spot in the Big East tournament, so they have nothing to play for.
BEST BET: I am going to be all over Villanova. I’m guessing the line opens up at (-4.5), and I like them all the way up to (-6.5).
SATURDAY UPDATE*: Of course, the line opened at Villanova (-7) and moved to (-7.5). There’s no way I bet anything other than Villanova in this spot, but that line is getting awfully high.
No. 10 LOUISVILLE at No. 22 VIRGINIA, Sat. 4:00 p.m. (ESPN)
- KENPOM: Louisville 56, Virginia 55
- TORVIK: Louisville 56, Virginia 55
- HASLAM: Louisville 55, Virginia 53
Virginia has won ten of their last 11 games. They are a game out of first place in the ACC title race. They are one of the nation’s best defenses, and a win over Louisville would give them a shot at winning a share of the regular season title. And while this is 100 percent anecdotal, Virginia always plays well against the Cardinals. That’s what happens when Pack-Line plays Pack-Line I guess.
BEST BETS: If UVA is getting points here that’s where my money will be.
SATURDAY UPDATE*: At Virginia (-1), I don’t love the value but I do think they are the right side.
NORTH CAROLINA at No. 12 DUKE, Sat. 6:00 p.m. (ESPN)
- KENPOM: Duke 83, North Carolina 68
- TORVIK: Duke 84, North Carolina 70
- HASLAM: Duke 85, North Carolina 69
North Carolina has won three straight games. Cole Anthony is playing his best basketball of the season. North Carolina has some revenge to enact on the Blue Devils, who somehow found a way to win a game they had no reason to win in Chapel Hill a month ago. And Duke will be playing with a chance to win a share of the ACC regular season title.
This is a lost season for UNC. This would be the best way to make this season memorable.
BEST BETS: If North Carolina is going to be getting 14-16 points, I will have multiple units on it. I’m expecting this line to open closer to (+10.5) or so, and I’ll still be on the Heels at that price.
SATURDAY UPDATE*: The line opened at UNC (+9.5) at my book. I think that’s where the value is, but I’m going to hold off and hold that the line moves before tip.
No. 25 MICHIGAN at No. 9 MARYLAND, Sun. 12:00 p.m. (FOX)
- KENPOM: Maryland 71, Michigan 68
- TORVIK: Maryland 70, Michigan 69
- HASLAM: Maryland 69, Michigan 67
Maryland is coming home after an embarrassing loss at Rutgers that came after a blowout home loss against Michigan State. The Terps still have a chance to win the league’s outright regular season title, and a win over Michigan would earn them a share of the title. The Wolverines looked like they might have gotten some things figured out against Nebraska on Thursday night, but a lot of teams have looked good against Nebraska this season.
BEST BET: Process tells me that Maryland should be the play here, but I don’t want to bet on Maryland. That never feels comfortable, so I’ll be staying away from this game personally.
No. 19 OHIO STATE at No. 16 MICHIGAN STATE, Sun. 4:30 p.m. (CBS)
- KENPOM: Michigan State 72, Ohio State 68
- TORVIK: Michigan State 71, Ohio State 67
- HASLAM: Michigan State 71, Ohio State 66
Ohio State has been playing great over the course of the last two months.
But this is Cassius Winston’s senior night.
There’s no way I’ll be fading the Spartans in this spot.
BEST BET: I’ll wait to see what the number is before making a bet here, but I’ll be on Michigan State if I am going to be betting this game.
No. 24 WISCONSIN at INDIANA, Sat. 12:00 p.m. (ESPN)
- KENPOM: Indiana 65, Wisconsin 63
- TORVIK: Indiana 64, Wisconsin 63
- HASLAM: Indiana 64, Wisconsin 63
The Badgers have managed to play their way into first place in the Big Ten, winning seven straight games. Five of those wins came at home, and one of the road wins was Nebraska. Beating Michigan in Ann Arbor was impressive, as was a 13 point win over Ohio State in Madison, but for the most part, this winning streak has been about what we should have expected.
Which is why I like Indiana in this spot. The Hoosiers are probably on the right side of the bubble right now, but they could really use another elite win to get themselves out of the 8-9 game. Wisconsin would qualify as such.
BEST BET: I’ll be on Indiana here. Hopefully we can get it at (pk), but I’m assuming we’ll probably be laying 2-2.5 points.
SATURDAY UPDATE*: The line opened at Indiana (-1.5) and moved to Indiana (-2). The Hoosiers seem like the play here.
No. 1 KANSAS at TEXAS TECH, Sat. 2:00 p.m. (ESPN)
- KENPOM: Kansas 68, Texas Tech 64
- TORVIK: Kansas 68, Texas Tech 64
- HASLAM: Kansas 69, Texas Tech 63
Kansas is looking to start a new Big 12 title streak with an outright Big 12 title, but the Red Raiders will be playing for their NCAA tournament life. Texas Tech has lost three straight games. They are sitting at 18-12 on the season, and a loss to Kansas on Saturday combined with a loss in the Big 12 tournament would mean that they have 14 losses on the season. How often do teams get at-large bids with 14 losses in a season?
As far as the matchup is concerned, I do think that it favors Kansas. The Jayhawks are terrific at switching on defense, and they have college basketball’s best anchor in Udoka Azubuike. Texas Tech kept things close at Kansas because they shot really well from three. I think the Jayhawks get this done.
BEST BET: I’m going to stay away from this game. I think the line is going to open up around Kansas (-5.5), and I do think that the value at that point would be on Texas Tech, but they’re averaging 59 points in the last three games — including an overtime loss at Baylor — and that’s not going to get it done against the best defense in college hoops.
SATURDAY UPDATE*: At Kansas (-3.5) and 133.5 points, I think the best to make is the Jayhawks but the over seems like a better bet.
No. 4 BAYLOR at WEST VIRGINIA, Sat. 1:00 p.m. (ESPN+)
- KENPOM: Baylor 65, West Virginia 64
- TORVIK: Baylor 65, West Virginia 63
- HASLAM: Baylor 63, West Virginia 62
Baylor will still have a chance to win the Big 12 regular season title when this game tips off. We talked about this the last time that the Bears faced off with the Mountaineers, but the way Baylor’s defense is built — switching, forcing baseline, anticipating help — it makes guards have to create in isolation and shooters hit kick out threes. WVU’s guards stink, and they cannot shoot.
BEST BET: If this line opens up at Baylor (-1), I will be hammering the Bears. I also think the under is in play if the total opens at 130 or higher.
SATURDAY UPDATE*: Baylor is getting a point. Their moneyline is -106. Mark Vital is a game-time decision, which is concerning, but the Bears are better than West Virginia no matter how you slice it. This is my favorite bet of the day.