Best Bets: Previewing Baylor-West Virginia and Maryland-Michigan State

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Saturday and Sunday betting lines have not yet been put out by the fine folks running sportsbooks. Until they are, we will be using projections from KenPom, Torvik and Haslametrics to analyze Saturday’s games.

No. 14 WEST VIRGINIA at No. 1 BAYLOR, Sat. 4:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Baylor 66, West Virginia 61
  • TORVIK: Baylor 66, West Virginia 61
  • HASLAM: Baylor 64, West Virginia 61

My first instinct with this game was to just blindly hammer the under, no matter where it opens. Both teams are top four nationally in defensive efficiency, Baylor should, theoretically, be able to control the tempo, and they don’t exactly want to play fast.

That said, both the Bears and the Mountaineers are elite offensive rebounding teams and neither of them rank in the top 40 percent nationally in defensive rebounding. They also both force turnovers on more than 22 percent of their defensive possessions, and while Baylor is above average at protecting the ball, West Virginia’s guards seem to throw the ball to the other team more than Jameis Winston before Lasik. Put another way, I am worried that there are going to be enough extra possessions to push the total over.

MORE CBT: Bubble Watch |Bracketology

BEST BET: I’ll still be on the under if the total opens at about 128 or higher, but I actually think I like Baylor (-5) more at this point. The way Baylor’s defense works is that they switch everything 1-through-4 and they overplay to keep the ball out of the middle and force baseline. What this forces opposing offenses to do is to make plays in isolation and to shoot kick-out threes off of baseline drives. Miles McBride is dangerous as a scorer, but he’s nothing that Davion Mitchell can’t handle and the rest of their perimeter players don’t scare me, as creators or as shooters. The Bears do have enough size that I can’t see Oscar Tshiebwe or Derek Culver overpowering anyone in the paint, so I am having trouble seeing how the Mountaineers get to 60 points. And if this game, say, 70-57, under 128 would still hit.

So while I do like the under, my favorite bet will be Baylor (-5).

*SATURDAY UPDATE: This line is currently sitting at Baylor (-5.5) with a total of (130.5). I fired at both.

No. 9 MARYLAND at MICHIGAN STATE, Sat. 6:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Michigan State 70, Maryland 66
  • TORVIK: Michigan State 71, Maryland 65
  • HASLAM: Michigan State 70, Maryland 63

On the one hand, this feels like a perfect buy-low spot for Michigan State. They are one Ayo Dosunmu slip away from losing four straight games but they are coming home to play in a game where Michigan State will be hosting College Gameday.

Everyone is going to be fired up for that.

That said, Maryland has now won seven straight games, and four of those games have come on the road. They won at Illinois and at Indiana during that stretch. They are sitting all alone in first place in the Big Ten race. We can make all the jokes we want about Mark Turgeon and the Terrapins, but this team is starting to look like they are actually, legitimately, really, really good.

So I’m really torn here.

BEST BET: I’m going to wait to see where the line opens before I give a take, but I’ll probably be staying away.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: The line is currently sitting at Michigan State (-6.5). I think the value is on Maryland at that number, but I’m staying away myself.

NOTRE DAME at No. 7 DUKE, Sat. 4:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Duke 82, Notre Dame 68
  • TORVIK: Duke 83, Notre Dame 69
  • HASLAM: Duke 84, Notre Dame 69

In their last three games, Duke has:

  • beaten North Carolina by two in overtime in a game where the Tar Heels shot 21-for-38 from the line and gacked away a 13 point lead in the final 4:31.
  • beaten Florida State by five when Florida State shot 12-for-20 from the free throw line.
  • beaten a bad Boston College team, 63-55.

The two best things that Duke does defensively — force turnovers and run teams off of the three-point line — are the two things that Notre Dame does best offensively, and the Irish have a big guy inside in John Mooney that will make Vernon Carey have to work.

BEST BET: The Blue Devils are coming off of their two biggest wins since the turn of the calendar and they have not exactly played great during that stretch. If the Irish, who are still in the mix for an NCAA tournament berth if they can land a win like this, are (+11.5), that will be tough to stay away from.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Notre Dame at (+12.5) seems like a solid beet.

OLE MISS at No. 12 KENTUCKY, Sat. 2:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Kentucky 73, Ole Miss 63
  • TORVIK: Kentucky 73, Ole Miss 63
  • HASLAM: Kentucky 73, Ole Miss 64

Ole Miss has been one of the hottest teams in the country over the course of the last three weeks. According to Torvik, they have the 17th-best team in college basketball since Jan. 24th. They have covered in six straight games, including three straight double-digit wins against South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State. They have had some struggles on the road, but this team has been a cash cow for us and I’m going to stay on the bandwagon.

BEST BET: If Ole Miss is catching (+9) here, then I’ll be all over it.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: The line is Ole Miss (+9.5), and I am all over it.

OKLAHOMA at No. 3 KANSAS, Sat. 12:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Kansas 74, Oklahoma 60
  • TORVIK: Kansas 74, Oklahoma 61
  • HASLAM: Kansas 76, Oklahoma 58

Ole Miss has been the 17th-best team in college basketball over the course of the last three weeks. Oklahoma has been 18th. I actually think the Sooners matchup better with Kansas than Ole Miss does with Kentucky, but we should be getting more points with the Sooners because Kansas is a better team.

But back to the matchup, where Oklahoma killed West Virginia was in their ability to spread the floor, pull the Mountaineer bigs away from the bucket and kill them with ball-screens. Kansas is unquestionably better at guarding these actions, particularly with the improvement that Udoka Azubuike has made defensively and their ability to play small, but I still think Oklahoma will be able to get clean looks for Brady Manek and Kristian Doolittle.

BEST BET: I don’t think that we’ll get this at Oklahoma (+14), but if it’s (+10.5) or higher I’ll be on the Sooners.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: I got it at Oklahoma (+11.5). The line is currently Oklahoma (+11). I like it down to (+10.5).

Purdue’s Edey returning to school at NBA draft deadline; Kentucky’s Tshiebwe stays in

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Purdue’s Zach Edey decided it was the right call to go back to school instead of staying in the NBA draft. His predecessor as national player of the year, Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe, is sticking with his pro pursuit.

And Connecticut’s reign as NCAA champion will begin with multiple starters having left for the NBA draft and one returning after flirting with doing the same.

The 7-foot-4 Edey and UConn guard Tristen Newton were among the notable names to announce that they were withdrawing from the draft, the NCAA’s deadline for players who declared as early entrants to pull out and retain their college eligibility.

Edey’s decision came in social media posts from both the center and the Boilermakers program that earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament behind Edey, The Associated Press men’s national player of the year.

But Tshiebwe announced late in the afternoon that he would remain in the draft after a college career that included being named the AP national player of the year in 2022.

For the current champions, Newton (10.1 points, 4.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds) is returning after being one of four Huskies to declare for the draft after a run to UConn’s fifth national championship in early April. He scored a game-high 19 points to go with 10 rebounds in the victory over San Diego State in the title game.

The others were Final Four Most Outstanding Player Adama Sanogo, wing Jordan Hawkins and versatile guard Andre Jackson Jr. Sanogo (17.8 points) and Hawkins (16.3) have made it clear they have closed the door on their college careers, while team spokesman Phil Chardis said that Jackson (6.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists) would remain in the draft.

The Huskies have 247sports’ No. 3-ranked recruiting class for next year to restock the roster, led by McDonald’s All-American point guard Stephon Castle.

The NBA’s withdrawal deadline is June 12, but is moot when it comes to college players returning to school due to the NCAA’s earlier timeline to retain playing eligibility.


TREY ALEXANDER: Creighton gets back a 6-4 guard who averaged 13.6 points and shot 41% from 3-point range in his first full season as a starter.

ADEM BONA: The 6-foot-10 forward and Pac-12 freshman of the year is returning to UCLA after starting 32 games as a rookie and averaging 7.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks – with coach Mick Cronin praising his toughness for “competing through multiple injuries for as long as he could” in a statement Wednesday.

EDEY: He averaged 22.3 points, 12.9 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.5 assists while shooting 60.7% from the field. His presence alone helps Purdue be a factor in the Big Ten race.

JOSIAH-JORDAN JAMES: The 6-6 guard went through the NBA G League Combine and had workouts with multiple teams before opting to return to Tennessee for a fifth season alongside teammate Santiago Vescovi.

JUDAH MINTZ: The 6-3 freshman averaged 16.3 points and 4.6 assists for Syracuse, ranking third among Division I freshmen in scoring behind only Alabama’s Brandon Miller and Lamar’s Nate Calmese.

OWLS’ RETURNEES: Florida Atlantic got good news after its surprise Final Four run with the return leading scorers Johnell Davis (13.8) and Alijah Martin (13.4). ESPN first reported their decisions, while Martin later posted a social media statement.

TERRENCE SHANNON JR.: Illinois got a big boost with Shannon announcing his night in a social media post. The 6-6 guard is returning for a fifth college season after averaging 17.2 points.

SPARTANS’ RETURNEES: Michigan State announced that guards Jaden Akins and A.J. Hoggard have withdrawn from the NBA draft. Standout guard Tyson Walker had previously withdrawn in April, setting up Tom Izzo to have five of his top scorers back.


KOBE BROWN: Missouri’s 6-8 swingman opted against returning for a fifth college season after being an AP first-team all-Southeastern Conference pick averaging 15.8 points last season.

JAYLEN CLARK: The third-year UCLA guard averaged 13.0 points and 6.0 rebounds while leading the Pac-12 with 2.6 steals en route to being named Naismith national defensive player of the year. Cronin called him a winner with strong intangibles who made UCLA “a better program because he chose to be a Bruin.”

BRICE SENSABAUGH: The Ohio State freshman averaged 16.3 points and 5.4 rebounds in 31 games before missing his final two in the Big Ten Tournament due to a knee injury. He’s a potential first-round prospect.

TSHIEBWE: The 6-9, 260-pound forward is a tough interior presence who led the country in rebounds for two straight seasons (15.1 in 2022, 13.7 in 2023) while racking up 48 double-doubles. But he faces an uncertain next stop and is projected at best as a second-round prospect.

North Carolina transfer Caleb Love commits to Arizona

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Caleb Love is now headed to Arizona.

The North Carolina transfer tweeted, less than a month after decommitting from Michigan, that he will play next season with the Wildcats.

“Caleb is a tremendously talented guard who has significant experience playing college basketball at a high level,” Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd said in a statement. “We look forward to helping Caleb grow his game at Arizona. And as we near the completion of the roster for the upcoming season, we feel great about how everything has come together. Now it’s time for the real work to start.”

A 6-foot-4 guard, Love averaged 14.6 points and 3.3 assists in three seasons at North Carolina. He averaged 17.6 points in seven NCAA Tournament games, helping lead the Tar Heels to the 2022 national championship game.

Love entered the transfer portal after leading North Carolina with 73 3-pointers as a junior and initially committed to Michigan. He decommitted from the Wolverines earlier this month, reportedly due to an admissions issue involving academic credits.

Love narrowed his transfer targets to three schools before choosing to play at Arizona over Gonzaga and Texas.

Love will likely start on a team that will have dynamic perimeter players, including Pelle Larsson, Kylan Boswell and Alabama transfer Jaden Bradley.

Biden celebrates LSU women’s and UConn men’s basketball teams at separate White House events


WASHINGTON – All of the past drama and sore feelings associated with Louisiana State’s invitation to the White House were seemingly forgotten or set aside Friday as President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcomed the championship women’s basketball team to the mansion with smiles, hugs and lavish praise all around.

The visit had once appeared in jeopardy after Jill Biden suggested that the losing Iowa team be invited, too. But none of that was mentioned as both Bidens heralded the players for their performance and the way they have helped advance women’s sports.

“Folks, we witnessed history,” the president said. “In this team, we saw hope, we saw pride and we saw purpose. It matters.”

The ceremony was halted for about 10 minutes after forward Sa’Myah Smith appeared to collapse as she and her teammates stood behind Biden. A wheelchair was brought in and coach Kim Mulkey assured the audience that Smith was fine.

LSU said in a statement that Smith felt overheated, nauseous and thought she might faint. She was evaluated by LSU and White House medical staff and was later able to rejoin the team. “She is feeling well, in good spirits, and will undergo further evaluation once back in Baton Rouge,” the LSU statement said.

Since the passage of Title IX in 1972, Biden said, more than half of all college students are women, and there are now 10 times more female athletes in college and high school. He said most sports stories are still about men, and that that needs to change.

Title IX prohibits discrimination based on sex in federally funded education programs and activities.

“Folks, we need to support women sports, not just during the championship run but during the entire year,” President Biden said.

After the Tigers beat Iowa for the NCAA title in April in a game the first lady attended, she caused an uproar by suggesting that the Hawkeyes also come to the White House.

LSU star Angel Reese called the idea “A JOKE” and said she would prefer to visit with former President Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle, instead. The LSU team largely is Black, while Iowa’s top player, Caitlin Clark, is white, as are most of her teammates.

Nothing came of Jill Biden’s idea and the White House only invited the Tigers. Reese ultimately said she would not skip the White House visit. She and co-captain Emily Ward presented team jerseys bearing the number “46” to Biden and the first lady. Hugs were exchanged.

Jill Biden also lavished praise on the team, saying the players showed “what it means to be a champion.”

“In this room, I see the absolute best of the best,” she said, adding that watching them play was “pure magic.”

“Every basket was pure joy and I kept thinking about how far women’s sports have come,” the first lady added, noting that she grew up before Title IX was passed. “We’ve made so much progress and we still have so much more work to do.”

The president added that “the way in which women’s sports has come along is just incredible. It’s really neat to see, since I’ve got four granddaughters.”

After Smith was helped to a wheelchair, Mulkey told the audience the player was OK.

“As you can see, we leave our mark where we go,” Mulkey joked. “Sa’Myah is fine. She’s kind of, right now, embarrassed.”

A few members of Congress and Biden aides past and present with Louisiana roots dropped what they were doing to attend the East Room event, including White House budget director Shalanda Young. Young is in the thick of negotiations with House Republicans to reach a deal by the middle of next week to stave off what would be a globally calamitous U.S. financial default if the U.S. can no longer borrow the money it needs to pay its bills.

The president, who wore a necktie in the shade of LSU’s purple, said Young, who grew up in Baton Rouge, told him, “I’m leaving the talks to be here.” Rep. Garret Graves, one of the House GOP negotiators, also attended.

Biden closed sports Friday by changing to a blue tie and welcoming the UConn’s men’s championship team for its own celebration. The Huskies won their fifth national title by defeating San Diego State, 76-59, in April.

“Congratulations to the whole UConn nation,” he said.

Marquette’s Prosper says he will stay in draft rather than returning to school

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MILWAUKEE — Olivier-Maxence Prosper announced he is keeping his name under NBA draft consideration rather than returning to Marquette.

The 6-foot-8 forward announced his decision.

“Thank you Marquette nation, my coaches, my teammates and support staff for embracing me from day one,” Prosper said in an Instagram post. “My time at Marquette has been incredible. With that being said, I will remain in the 2023 NBA Draft. I’m excited for what comes next. On to the next chapter…”

Prosper had announced last month he was entering the draft. He still could have returned to school and maintained his college eligibility by withdrawing from the draft by May 31. Prosper’s announcement indicates he instead is going ahead with his plans to turn pro.

Prosper averaged 12.5 points and 4.7 rebounds last season while helping Marquette go 29-7 and win the Big East’s regular-season and tournament titles. Marquette’s season ended with a 69-60 loss to Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament’s round of 32.

He played two seasons at Marquette after transferring from Clemson, where he spent one season.

Kansas’ Kevin McCullar Jr. returning for last season of eligibility

kansas mccullar
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Kevin McCullar Jr. said that he will return to Kansas for his final year of eligibility, likely rounding out a roster that could make the Jayhawks the preseason No. 1 next season.

McCullar transferred from Texas Tech to Kansas for last season, when he started 33 of 34 games and averaged 10.7 points and 7.0 rebounds. He was also among the nation’s leaders in steals, and along with being selected to the Big 12’s all-defensive team, the 6-foot-6 forward was a semifinalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award.

“To be able to play in front of the best fans in the country; to play for the best coach in the nation, I truly believe we have the pieces to hang another banner in the Phog,” McCullar said in announcing his return.

Along with McCullar, the Jayhawks return starters Dajuan Harris Jr. and K.J. Adams from a team that went 28–8, won the Big 12 regular-season title and was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where it lost to Arkansas in the second round.

Perhaps more importantly, the Jayhawks landed Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson, widely considered the best player in the portal, to anchor a lineup that was missing a true big man. They also grabbed former five-star prospect Arterio Morris, who left Texas, and Towson’s Nick Timberlake, who emerged last season as one of the best 3-point shooters in the country.

The Jayhawks also have an elite recruiting class arriving that is headlined by five-star recruit Elmarko Jackson.

McCullar declared for the draft but, after getting feedback from scouts, decided to return. He was a redshirt senior last season, but he has another year of eligibility because part of his career was played during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This is a big day for Kansas basketball,” Jayhawks coach Bill Self said. “Kevin is not only a terrific player but a terrific teammate. He fit in so well in year one and we’re excited about what he’ll do with our program from a leadership standpoint.”