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Best Bets: Previewing Baylor-West Virginia and Maryland-Michigan State

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Saturday and Sunday betting lines have not yet been put out by the fine folks running sportsbooks. Until they are, we will be using projections from KenPom, Torvik and Haslametrics to analyze Saturday’s games.

No. 14 WEST VIRGINIA at No. 1 BAYLOR, Sat. 4:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Baylor 66, West Virginia 61
  • TORVIK: Baylor 66, West Virginia 61
  • HASLAM: Baylor 64, West Virginia 61

My first instinct with this game was to just blindly hammer the under, no matter where it opens. Both teams are top four nationally in defensive efficiency, Baylor should, theoretically, be able to control the tempo, and they don’t exactly want to play fast.

That said, both the Bears and the Mountaineers are elite offensive rebounding teams and neither of them rank in the top 40 percent nationally in defensive rebounding. They also both force turnovers on more than 22 percent of their defensive possessions, and while Baylor is above average at protecting the ball, West Virginia’s guards seem to throw the ball to the other team more than Jameis Winston before Lasik. Put another way, I am worried that there are going to be enough extra possessions to push the total over.

MORE CBT: Bubble Watch |Bracketology

BEST BET: I’ll still be on the under if the total opens at about 128 or higher, but I actually think I like Baylor (-5) more at this point. The way Baylor’s defense works is that they switch everything 1-through-4 and they overplay to keep the ball out of the middle and force baseline. What this forces opposing offenses to do is to make plays in isolation and to shoot kick-out threes off of baseline drives. Miles McBride is dangerous as a scorer, but he’s nothing that Davion Mitchell can’t handle and the rest of their perimeter players don’t scare me, as creators or as shooters. The Bears do have enough size that I can’t see Oscar Tshiebwe or Derek Culver overpowering anyone in the paint, so I am having trouble seeing how the Mountaineers get to 60 points. And if this game, say, 70-57, under 128 would still hit.

So while I do like the under, my favorite bet will be Baylor (-5).

*SATURDAY UPDATE: This line is currently sitting at Baylor (-5.5) with a total of (130.5). I fired at both.

No. 9 MARYLAND at MICHIGAN STATE, Sat. 6:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Michigan State 70, Maryland 66
  • TORVIK: Michigan State 71, Maryland 65
  • HASLAM: Michigan State 70, Maryland 63

On the one hand, this feels like a perfect buy-low spot for Michigan State. They are one Ayo Dosunmu slip away from losing four straight games but they are coming home to play in a game where Michigan State will be hosting College Gameday.

Everyone is going to be fired up for that.

That said, Maryland has now won seven straight games, and four of those games have come on the road. They won at Illinois and at Indiana during that stretch. They are sitting all alone in first place in the Big Ten race. We can make all the jokes we want about Mark Turgeon and the Terrapins, but this team is starting to look like they are actually, legitimately, really, really good.

So I’m really torn here.

BEST BET: I’m going to wait to see where the line opens before I give a take, but I’ll probably be staying away.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: The line is currently sitting at Michigan State (-6.5). I think the value is on Maryland at that number, but I’m staying away myself.

NOTRE DAME at No. 7 DUKE, Sat. 4:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Duke 82, Notre Dame 68
  • TORVIK: Duke 83, Notre Dame 69
  • HASLAM: Duke 84, Notre Dame 69

In their last three games, Duke has:

  • beaten North Carolina by two in overtime in a game where the Tar Heels shot 21-for-38 from the line and gacked away a 13 point lead in the final 4:31.
  • beaten Florida State by five when Florida State shot 12-for-20 from the free throw line.
  • beaten a bad Boston College team, 63-55.

The two best things that Duke does defensively — force turnovers and run teams off of the three-point line — are the two things that Notre Dame does best offensively, and the Irish have a big guy inside in John Mooney that will make Vernon Carey have to work.

BEST BET: The Blue Devils are coming off of their two biggest wins since the turn of the calendar and they have not exactly played great during that stretch. If the Irish, who are still in the mix for an NCAA tournament berth if they can land a win like this, are (+11.5), that will be tough to stay away from.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Notre Dame at (+12.5) seems like a solid beet.

OLE MISS at No. 12 KENTUCKY, Sat. 2:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Kentucky 73, Ole Miss 63
  • TORVIK: Kentucky 73, Ole Miss 63
  • HASLAM: Kentucky 73, Ole Miss 64

Ole Miss has been one of the hottest teams in the country over the course of the last three weeks. According to Torvik, they have the 17th-best team in college basketball since Jan. 24th. They have covered in six straight games, including three straight double-digit wins against South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State. They have had some struggles on the road, but this team has been a cash cow for us and I’m going to stay on the bandwagon.

BEST BET: If Ole Miss is catching (+9) here, then I’ll be all over it.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: The line is Ole Miss (+9.5), and I am all over it.

OKLAHOMA at No. 3 KANSAS, Sat. 12:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Kansas 74, Oklahoma 60
  • TORVIK: Kansas 74, Oklahoma 61
  • HASLAM: Kansas 76, Oklahoma 58

Ole Miss has been the 17th-best team in college basketball over the course of the last three weeks. Oklahoma has been 18th. I actually think the Sooners matchup better with Kansas than Ole Miss does with Kentucky, but we should be getting more points with the Sooners because Kansas is a better team.

But back to the matchup, where Oklahoma killed West Virginia was in their ability to spread the floor, pull the Mountaineer bigs away from the bucket and kill them with ball-screens. Kansas is unquestionably better at guarding these actions, particularly with the improvement that Udoka Azubuike has made defensively and their ability to play small, but I still think Oklahoma will be able to get clean looks for Brady Manek and Kristian Doolittle.

BEST BET: I don’t think that we’ll get this at Oklahoma (+14), but if it’s (+10.5) or higher I’ll be on the Sooners.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: I got it at Oklahoma (+11.5). The line is currently Oklahoma (+11). I like it down to (+10.5).

ACC coaches back idea of all D-I teams in 2021 NCAA tourney

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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RALEIGH, N.C. — Atlantic Coast Conference men’s basketball coaches are pushing the idea of having next year’s NCAA Tournament include all eligible teams in Division I.

Numerous league schools and coaches released statements Wednesday after the coaches held their weekly call to discuss the proposal, which was first reported by Stadium. There are 357 Division I programs in the country, with NCAA spokeswoman Meghan Durham saying 346 of those are eligible to play in next year’s tournament.

Virginia coach Tony Bennett said the ACC coaches are “united in strongly pursuing this” in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic that led to the cancellation of last year’s NCAA Tournament days before the field of 68 was set to be revealed. Multiple coaches said creating an everybody-gets-in format would be an incentive for schools as they create the safest conditions possible for returning to play.

“This is not a regular season,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said in a statement. “It is clearly an irregular season that will require something different. Our sport needs to be agile and creative. Most importantly, an all-inclusive postseason tournament will allow a unique and unprecedented opportunity for every team and every student-athlete to compete for a national championship.”

Durham declined comment specifically on the proposal in an email to The Associated Press on Wednesday. Last month, NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt said the Division I oversight committees for men’s and women’s basketball planned to announce by mid-September plans for whether the season and preseason practice would start on time or require a delay due to the pandemic.

Louisville coach Chris Mack said the proposal would provide flexibility during the season without mandating a number of nonconference or conference games to be played. And the league has already experienced that scheduling challenge with football and other fall sports.

The ACC announced in July that it would have each football team play 10 league games – including the addition of Notre Dame as a football member this year – and one nonconference game to be played in the home state of the member school. Those schedules were released in early August, slightly more than a month before Thursday’s UAB-Miami game kicks off the season.

“This is a time to think differently,” Clemson coach Brad Brownell said, adding: “After all these players have been through, what better way to reward them than the opportunity to compete in an unprecedented version of the most exciting event in sports.”

College basketball floats idea of bubbles for safe season

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The NBA bubble has held. So has the NHL’s double bubble. The WNBA and MLS, no leaks.

In this unprecedented landscape of sports in a pandemic world, one indisputable fact has emerged: bubbles work.

Thousands of tests, minimal to no positive COVID-19 test results.

So as the NCAA gets set announce its plans for the 2020-21 college basketball season, there are clear precedents and blueprints in place should it decide to go the bubble route.

“It’s certainly viable,” said Mark Starsiak, vice president of sports at Intersport, a Chicago-based sports marketing and media agency, “From a basketball standpoint, I think we can follow those models.”

The college football restart has been scattershot. The season has already started, yet 53 FBS schools have the pads and helmets hanging on hooks while waiting for better pandemic news.

A much more unified plan is in place for the college basketball season.

The NCAA is hoping to start the season in late November/early December, with a vote by the Division I council expected Sept. 16.

A partnership between the Pac-12 and Quidel Corp. to potentially do daily, rapid COVID-19 tests on athletes should help smooth a return to the court.

The question then becomes: What’s the best way to safely play basketball again?

Bubbles may be the answer.

While bubble football would be next to impossible logistically, basketball could fit nicely.

The travel parties are much smaller and college basketball already has plenty of multiple-team events, from holiday and conference tournaments to the NCAA Tournament. Add the effective safety measures of the pro leagues, find suitable sites and bubble basketball could work.

The NCAA is already looking at it, reportedly filing a trademark for the phrase “Battle in the Bubble.” Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont also said there have been preliminary talks for bubble basketball at the Mohegan Sun resort.

“The idea of a bubble would be a really good idea, just to isolate all the teams who want to play against each other in that bubble and keep things safe, keep away from the public and keep us in our own area where we’re able to play the game the right way and safely,” Duke sophomore forward Wendell Moore, Jr. said.

A big key will be finding the right places to bubble.

The NBA has the ideal setup at Disney World, but college basketball might be better suited to follow the NHL’s lead.

Hockey’s two bubbles – Toronto and Edmonton, Alberta – cordoned off areas enclosing the arena and several nearby hotels. All personnel entering are tested and strict protocols are in place for vendors delivering food and packages into the bubbles.

Similar bubbles for college basketball could be set up at smaller resorts, cities with arenas and hotels nearby, or Division II or III schools with arenas not being used during the pandemic.

The NCAA could set up pods of multiple nonconference teams, conference tournaments could be held in similar fashion and so could the NCAA Tournament.

In other words, basketball bubbles could pop up all over the country.

“Maybe do it for maybe a week or two at a time, playing a certain amount of games and getting retested after you come back or something like that,” Memphis coach Penny Hardaway said. “It’s possible, but it’s not going to be easy.”

Pulling off a college basketball bubble, however, comes with a caveat.

NCAA players are considered students, so academics would have to be part of the equation.

Division I players are already accustomed to doing school work on the road and the majority take primarily online classes. To make the bubbles work, socially distant space would have to be carved out for the players to take their classes and study.

The programs may also have to rethink the size of their traveling parties.

“Discussions about the right amount of tutors or academic staff would need to take place,” said Starsiak, who has operated high-level sports and entertainment events for 15 years. ”

You have to look at, do we need three managers this time around? No, probably not. Do you take two and have a tutor or an academic come with us? Yeah, I think you could. I think there’s a way to kind of combine both things to have some live, in-person resources.”

The NCAA is going to do everything possible to have a basketball season.

The pandemic wiped out the NCAA Tournament last spring and the NCAA collected $270 million in cancellation insurance instead of the $1 billion TV payout it normally gets. A second straight year without March Madness could be devastating.

Bubbles may be the way to go.

‘Father of the Final Four’ Tom Jernestedt dies at 75

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INDIANAPOLIS — Tom Jernstedt, a member of the Naismith Hall of Fame for his contributions to college basketball and the NCAA Tournament, has died. He was 75.

The NCAA said Sunday Jernstedt died this weekend.

Nicknamed “Father of the Final Four,” Jernstedt has widely been credited with transforming the NCAA Tournament into the billion-dollar March Madness it has become today.

“A decade after his departure from the NCAA, Tom Jernstedt’s fingertips remain visible during March Madness and the Final Four,” NCAA senior vice president Dan Gavitt said in a statement. “His innovation and superb ability to develop relationships turned a basketball tournament into a three-week phenomenon that became a global event.”

A former back-up quarterback, Jernstedt worked his first Final Four in 1973 and helped push the growth of the NCAA Tournament from 25 teams to the 68, anything-can-happen bonanza held every spring.

Jernstedt helped the NCAA increase its television contract from just over $1 million to more than $10 billion when he left in 2011. He served as president of USA Basketball, was a member of the College Football Selection committee and was inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame as a contributor in 2017.

“Tom Jernstedt was a humble and unsung steward of the game,” John L. Doleva, president and CEO of the Basketball Hall of Fame, said in a statement. “Under his direction, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament grew into a phenomenon that brings college basketball fans together on a global scale. He will forever be remembered as the Father of the Final Four and one of the most respected leaders in basketball.”

Jernstedt established himself as a team leader despite being a backup quarterback at Oregon from 1964-66 and went on to serve as the Ducks’ events manager. He joined the NCAA in 1972 and spent 38 years with the organization.

“Tom served as a friend and mentor to countless people in and around collegiate athletics, and I’m proud to be among that vast group of people,” Gavitt said. “His legacy within the NCAA and its membership, and his impact on the sport of college basketball, is eternal. We extend our deepest condolences to Tom’s family.”

Aztecs extend Brian Dutcher’s contract 3 years through 2026

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SAN DIEGO — San Diego State basketball coach Brian Dutcher has signed a three-year contract extension through the 2025-26 season.

Dutcher signed the deal following one of the most successful seasons in school history. The Aztecs went 30-2, won the Mountain West regular-season title and were expected to be a No. 1 or 2 seed before the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. They opened the season 26-0 and were the nation’s last undefeated team.

“Having spent more than 20 years at San Diego State University I understand what a special place this is,” Dutcher said in a statement Friday. “I am humbled and honored to continue to represent SDSU and Aztec Basketball as its head coach.”

Dutcher is 73-26 in three seasons, the most victories by an Aztecs coach in his first three seasons. He spent 18 seasons as Steve Fisher’s top assistant, including six as associate head coach/head coach in waiting. He took over as head coach after Fisher retired following the 2016-17 season. The Aztecs reached the NCAA Tournament in his first season.

Before that, he spent 10 seasons with Fisher at Michigan. In Dutcher’s first season with the Wolverines, Fisher was promoted to interim head coach on the eve of the NCAA Tournament and won the national championship.

Indiana halts all voluntary workouts

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Indiana has halted all voluntary workouts indefinitely for its men’s basketball, field hockey, men’s soccer and wrestling teams after 14 participants tested positive for the coronavirus this week.

The Hoosiers did not identify which teams recorded the positive tests. The football team, like other Big Ten programs, is not playing this fall. Indiana said 63 positives have been reported from more than 1,400 tests of athletes, coaches and staff since June 8.

“Our athletic program is following strict protocols during these unprecedented times and we strongly support our medical staff as we try and mitigate this issue,” men’s basketball coach Archie Miller said.