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The Hot Seat: Which college basketball coaches are in danger of losing their job?

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The wrench that has been thrown into this year’s Hot Seat list is that the fallout from the FBI’s investigation into corruption in college basketball has not been fully realized just yet.

There are a number of guys at major programs that are stuck waiting to see what kind of punishment the NCAA is going to hand down and whether or not their employers will stick by them when they do.

There are also a handful of coaches that have entered a year where they need to start winning, which puts them on a much more traditional Hot Seat.

So without further ado, your 2019-20 College Basketball Coaching Hot Seat:

WAITING ON THE NCAA

WILL WADE, LSU: Wade is the guy that is in the most trouble here, as he was caught on a wiretap discussing, among other things, “a strong-ass offer” that was made during the recruitment process of current Tiger Javonte Smart. After that wiretap became public, Wade was suspended for a month – including LSU’s NCAA tournament run – before being reinstated a week after the Final Four when he finally met with LSU administrators. At the time, it felt more like a stay of execution rather than a show of faith. Joe Alleva, the LSU AD at the time, said Wade was going to be reinstated “absent actual evidence of wrongdoing.”

BILL SELF, Kansas: Kansas is going to fight tooth and nail against the allegations levied by the NCAA in the Notice of Allegations that was served last month, but that doesn’t change the fact that Self and company were hit with multiple Level I violations. It’s tough for me to envision a scenario where Self is actually fired, but there’s a chance that the two parties could end up parting ways one way or another by the end of the season.

SEAN MILLER, Arizona: Miller was in more trouble last year, when it was unclear what was actually on FBI wiretaps and what would get played in open court. But now that he’s made it through all of the trials, and now that the perceived stability in the program has led five-star prospects back to Tucson, Miller seems relatively safe. If Arizona has stood by him for this long, would they really cut bait when the Notice of Allegations arrives?

BRUCE PEARL, Auburn: This one is tricky. Pearl has a history with the NCAA, we all know this, and that may end up being relevant when the NCAA decides to hand down punishments for what happened in his program. Violations were committed by Chuck Person in Pearl’s program, which means he can be hit with a head coach responsibility charge. The bigger concern, and the weirdest part of this story, is that Auburn may or may not have self-imposed recruiting sanctions that they may or may not have actually adhered to.

ANDY ENFIELD, USC: Enfield has mostly managed to remain out of the headlines during this scandal, and the fact that he is recruiting as well as he ever has at USC should tell you all you need to know about the perceived stability there. That said, there are going to be violations coming because of what former assistant coach Tony Bland plead guilty to, and USC does have a history with the NCAA.

THE OTHER GUYS: Frank Martin of South Carolina and Brad Underwood, currently at Illinois and formerly the head coach at Oklahoma State, both could find themselves dealing with a head coach responsibility charge based on the actions of Lamont Evans. He was on staff at both South Carolina and Oklahoma State during the time that the FBI was investigating. Creighton’s Greg McDermott is also going to have to deal with the NCAA as a result of former assistant Preston Murphy’s association with ex-runner Christian Dawkins.

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THE TRADITIONAL HOT SEAT

DANNY MANNING, Wake Forest: It was less than two years ago, after Manning made his first NCAA tournament as the head coach at Wake Forest, that he was given a contract extension through the 2024-25 season. Since then, he’s posted back-to-back seasons with 11 wins and a 4-14 record in the ACC. Overall, he is 65-93 in five seasons in Winston-Salem with a 24-66 record in the league. It’s bad. The problem? Manning’s contract is reportedly fully-guaranteed through 2025, which means that Wake Forest will be on the hook for the roughly $15 million buyout at end of season.

Yeah.

It’s bad.

JOSH PASTNER, Georgia Tech: Pastner is heading into his fourth season at Georgia Tech, and he has yet to make an NCAA tournament, posting a 48-53 record. He’s won between six and eight league games each year at the school. He won’t be making the tournament this year either, as his program was banned from postseason play due to violations that were committed on his watch.

Back in 2017, Pastner signed a contract extension through 2022-23. The deal is fully guaranteed if he is fired before the end of the 2020-21 season, meaning that Georgia Tech would be on the hook for almost $7 million if they were to part ways with Pastner.

JIM CHRISTIAN, Boston College: Jim Christian missed his window. After a dreadful start to his BC tenure, Christian entered the 2017-18 season with some promise. But despite the fact that he had Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman on the roster, BC went just 19-16 on the season and 7-11 in the league. After another sub-.500 season this past year, Christian is now 62-100 in five seasons. He signed an extension in 2018 that runs through 2022, and he was retained this offseason when AD Martin Jarmond told reporters that he will look to invest in the basketball program and support his head coach.

SHAKA SMART, Texas: Shaka is the most interesting name on this list because he is the biggest name and Texas is easily the best job. His tenure in Austin has not exactly been great. The Longhorns have been to two NCAA tournaments in four seasons – they also won the 2019 NIT – but his record through those four years is 71-66 over and 31-41 in the Big 12. Some of that Shaka needs to take the blame for. Some of it is bad luck. He lost Isaiah Taylor a year earlier than expected. Jaxson Hayes and Jarrett Allen both ended up being one-and-done. Andrew Jones’ battle with leukemia is something no one could have predicted.

Shaka’s contract runs through 2023, and it is fully guaranteed. If he’s fired by the University, he’ll be owed somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million. That’s a lot of money, especially if they are going to have to pony up another $6 million to buyout that guy down in Lubbock. That does, however, set up a scenario where Shaka could end up leaving for a soft landing, getting out while there’s a chance for him to land a power conference gig before they run him out of the Erwin Center.

Put another way, I think Shaka ends up being the flash point for this year’s carousel. If he leaves – or if he is asked to leave – then things can get really interesting.

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PAT CHAMBERS, Penn State: Chambers is heading into his ninth season as the head coach at Penn State, and he has yet to reach an NCAA tournament. He came close in 2017-18, when his team was one of the last cuts on the bubble and finished the year ranked 19th on KenPom after winning the NIT. His contract runs through 2021-22, but the school has not released the details of his contract. Last season, after losing their first ten Big Ten games, the Nittany Lions finished the season winning seven of their last ten.

TIM JANKOVICH, SMU: When Jankovich signed a five-year deal in 2016 to replace Larry Brown, the Mustangs were the trendy team in Texas. In his first season as the head coach, Jankovich went 30-5 and won the American regular season and tournament titles. But that team had four NBA players on it, guys that were brought in by Brown. The talent level has dropped significantly, SMU has gone 6-12 in the AAC each of the last two years and at this point, the Mustangs aren’t even the trendiest team in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

FRANK HAITH, Tulsa: Haith has been unable to build on the NCAA tournament that he reached in 2015-16 with Tulsa. Last season, the Golden Hurricane finished 18-14 overall and 8-10 in the AAC. He did sign a two-year extension in March through 2022, but it is at a lower salary. Haith needs a big year.

JEROD HAASE, Stanford: This may be a year early on Haase, but this is his fourth season in Palo Alto, and the Caridnal have not really improved despite the fact that he has had improved talent coming through the ranks. He has finished under-.500 in two of his first three season, has a 25-29 record in a weak era for Pac-12 basketball and has yet to finish a season with fewer than 16 losses.

DAVE LEITAO, DePaul: Leitao is coming off of by far his most successful season during this four-year run as the head coach at DePaul. They went 19-17 overall and 7-11 in the Big East, good for a three-way tie for last in the league standings. Things probably won’t get better this season, not with the amount of talent they lost, and the program was put on probation in July. So obviously, DePaul had to … sign him to an extension?

John Petty Jr. returns to Alabama for senior season

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TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama guard John Petty Jr. is staying in school instead of entering the NBA draft.

The Crimson Tide junior announced his decision to return for his senior season Monday on Twitter, proclaiming: “I’m back.”

Petty, the Tide’s top 3-point shooter, averaged 14.5 points and a team-high 6.6 rebounds rebounds last season. He was second on the team in assists.

Petty made 85 3-pointers in 29 games, shooting at a 44% clip.

Alabama coach Nate Oats called him “one of the best, if not the best, shooters in the country.”

“He’s made it clear that it’s his goal to become a first round pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and we’re going to work with him to make sure he’s in the best position to reach that goal,” Oats said.

Fellow Tide guard Kira Lewis Jr. is regarded as a likely first-round draft pick.

McKinley Wright IV returns to Colorado

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McKinley Wright IV will be back for season No. 4 with the Colorado Buffaloes.

The point guard tested the NBA draft process before announcing a return for his senior year. It’s a big boost for a Buffaloes team that’s coming off a 21-11 mark in 2019-20 and was potentially looking at an NCAA Tournament bid before the season was halted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wright was an All-Pac-12 first team selection a season ago, along with an all-defensive team pick. He and athletic forward Tyler Bey declared for the draft in late March. Bey remains in the draft.

“We’ve got unfinished business,” said Wright, who averaged 14.4 points and 5.0 assists per game last season.

Midway through the season, the Buffaloes were looking like a lock for their first NCAA Tournament appearance since ’15-16. Then, the team hit a five-game skid, including a loss to Washington State in the Pac-12 tournament. Simply put, they hit a defensive rut they just couldn’t shake out of, Wright said. It drove him to work that much harder in the offseason.

“This is my last go-around and I’ve got big dreams,” the 6-footer from Minnesota said. “I want to take CU to a place they haven’t been in a while. We want to go back to the tournament and win high-level games.”

The feedback from NBA scouts was reaffirming for Wright. He said they appreciated his transition game, movement away from the ball and his defensive intangibles. They also gave Wright areas he needed to shore up such as assist-to-turnover ratio and shooting the 3-pointer with more consistency.

He took it to heart while training in Arizona during the pandemic. He recently returned to Boulder, Colorado, where he’s going through quarantine before joining his teammates for workouts.

“The work I put in and the time I spent in the gym compared to all my other offseasons, it’s a big gap,” Wright said. “Last offseason, I thought I worked hard. But it was nothing compared to the time and different type of mindset I put myself in this year.”

Another motivating factor for his return was this: a chance to be the first in his family to earn his college degree. He’s majoring in ethnic studies with a minor in communications.

“My grandparents are excited about that. My parents are excited about that,” Wright said. “I’m excited about that as well.”

Wright also has an opportunity to take over the top spot on the school’s all-time assists list. His 501 career assists trail only Jay Humphries, who had 562 from 1980-84. Wright also ranks 13th all-time with 1,370 career points.

NOTES: Colorado announced the death of 95-year-old fan Betty Hoover, who along with her twin sister, Peggy Coppom, became fixtures at Buffs sporting events and were season ticket holders since 1958. Wright used to run into them not only on the court, but at the local bank. “I’ve never met anyone as loving and supporting and caring as those two,” Wright said. “They hold a special place in my heart. It sucks that Betty won’t be at any games this year. Maybe we can do something, put her name on our jersey. They’re two of the biggest fans in CU history.”

Jared Butler returns to Baylor

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Baylor got some huge news on Monday as potential All-American Jared Butler announced that he will be returning to school for his junior season, joining MaCio Teague is pulling his name out of the 2020 NBA Draft to get the band back together.

Butler was Baylor’s leading scorer a season ago, averaging 16.0 points and 3.1 assists for a team that went 26-4, spent a portion of the season as the No. 1 team in the country and was in line to receive a 1-seed had the 2020 NCAA Tournament taken place.

With Butler and Teague coming back to school, the Bears will return four starters from last season’s squad. Starting center Freddie Gillespie is gone, as is backup guard Devonte Bandoo, but those are holes that can be filled. Tristan Clark, who was Baylor’s best player during the 2018-19 season before suffering a knee injury that lingered through last year, will be back, and there is more than enough talent in the program to replace the scoring pop of Bandoo. Matthew Mayer will be in line for more minutes, while transfer Adam Flagler will be eligible this season.

Baylor will enter this season as a consensus top three team in the country. They will receive plenty of votes as the No. 1 team in the sport, making them not only a very real contender for the Big 12 regular season crown but one of the favorites to win the national title.

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As MaCio Teague returns, Baylor now awaits Jared Butler’s NBA draft decision

Butler is the key.

Baylor was one of college basketball’s best defensive teams last year. They finished fourth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, a ranking that dropped after they Bears lost two of their last three games to TCU and West Virginia. Where they struggled was on the offensive end of the floor. The Bears would go through droughts were points were at a premium and their best offense was a missed shot. Butler’s intrigue for NBA teams was his ability to shoot and to create space in isolation. He’s the one guy on the roster that can create something out of nothing for himself.

And now he is back to try and lead Baylor to a Final Four.

Arizona State’s Martin to return for senior season

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TEMPE, Ariz. (–Arizona State guard Remy Martin is withdrawing from the NBA draft and will return for his senior season in the desert.

“I’m blessed to have the opportunity to coach Remy Martin for one more season,” Sun Devils coach Bobby Hurley said in a statement Sunday. “Remy will be one of the best players in college basketball this year and will be on a mission to lead Arizona State basketball in its pursuit of championships.”

A 6-foot guard, Martin is the Pac-12’s leading returning scorer after averaging 19.1 points in 2019-20. He also averaged 4.1 assists per game and helped put the Sun Devils in position to reach the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year before the season was cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Martin’s return should put Arizona State among the favorites to win the Pac-12 next season.

Martin joins fellow guard Alonzo Verge Jr. in returning to the Sun Devils after testing the NBA waters. Big man Romello White declared for the draft and later entered the transfer portal.

Hurley has signed one of the program’s best recruiting classes for next season, headed by five-star guard Josh Christopher.

Michigan State forward Xavier Tillman will remain in the 2020 NBA Draft

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In the end, Xavier Tillman Sr.’s decision whether or not to return to remain in the 2020 NBA Draft for his senior season came down to security.

A 6-foot-8 forward that averaged 13.7 points, 10.3 boards, 3.0 assists and 2.1 blocks this past season, Tillman was an NBC Sports third-team All-American a season ago. He’s projected as the No. 23 pick in the latest NBC Sports mock draft. He was the best NBA prospect that had yet to make a decision on his future until Sunday.

That’s when Tillman announced that he will be foregoing his final season of college eligibility to head to the NBA.

In the end, it’s probably the right decision, but it’s not one that the big fella made easily.

Tillman is unlike most college basketball players forced to make a decision on their basketball future. He is married. He has two kids, a three-year old daughter and a six-month old son. This is not a situation where he can bet on himself, head to the pro ranks and figure it out later on.

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He needs something stable, particularly given the fact that we are living in the midst of a pandemic that has put the future of sports in doubt, at least for the short term.

He needs security.

He needed to know that there would be a job for him in the NBA. Not a two-way contract. Not a spot on a camp roster or a chance to develop in the G League. Hell, there might not even be a G League next season. That was an option at Michigan State. He was living in an apartment with his family that was covered by his scholarship and stipend. He had meals paid for. He was able to take food from the training room home and have dinner with his family. He was able to get to class, to the gym, to practice and back home in time to do the dishes at night. He told NBC Sports in March that the school was able to provide him with $1,200-a-month to help pay for things like diapers high chairs. That was all going to be there if he returned to school. It was a great situation, one that lacked the uncertainty that comes with the professional level.

Because as much as I love Tillman as a role player at the next level, NBA teams do not all feel the same. The tricky thing about the draft is that it makes sense to swing for the fences on the guys that can be locked into salaries for the first four years of a contract. The Toronto Raptors took Pascal Siakam with the 27th pick and have paid less than $7 million in total salary in his first four years for a player that made an all-star team. Kyle Kuzma is averaging 16.0 points through three seasons and is on the books for $3.5 million in year four.

Tillman’s ability to defend, his basketball IQ, his play-making and his professional demeanor means that he can step into the modern NBA and do a job as a rotation player for just about any team in the league. But he doesn’t have the upside that other bigs in the same projected range have — Jalen Smith, Daniel Oturu, Jaden McDaniels, Zeke Nnaji — so there are teams that are scared off.

I don’t get it.

But Tillman’s decision to head to the professional ranks indicates that he does, indeed, feel confident in the fact that he will have gainful and steady employment next season. Since he would have walked at Michigan State’s graduation in May had it been held, that doesn’t leave much to return to school for.

The Spartans will now be left in a tough spot. There are quite a few pieces to like on this roster. Rocket Watts had promising moments as a freshman, as did Malik Hall. Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham are both talented players. Joey Hauser had a good season at Marquette, and the early returns on freshman Mady Sissoko are promising. But this is going to be a young and unproven group.

Izzo has had less at his disposal before, but this is certainly not an ideal situation for Michigan State.