Best Bets: The Bettor’s Guide to Fridays’ Sweet 16 action

By Rob DausterMar 29, 2019, 2:28 AM EDT

AP Photo/Al Goldis

At 9 p.m. the day before every NCAA tournament game day, we will be releasing our Best Bets column, breaking down every single game in the tournament that day.

Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.

7:09 p.m.: No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 3 LSU, CBS

LINE: Michigan State (-6.5)
TOTAL: 148.5
IMPLIED SCORE: Michigan State 77.5, LSU 71
KENPOM: Michigan State 80, LSU 72

I think Michigan State is the play here for one, simple reason: Tom Izzo.

Look, I love the talent on this LSU team. I think their bigs pose a real matchup problem for the Spartans. I think the idea of Tremont Waters running ball-screens against Cassius Winston and Nick Ward is the kind of thing that should keep Michigan State fans up at night. It’s very clear that LSU has the more talented roster.

But here’s the thing: Michigan State is second nationally in 2PT% defense, and LSU is such a bad three-point shooting team that it doesn’t really matter. The rebounding edge probably favors Michigan State. LSU will get their’s on the offensive glass, but the Spartans are also a terrific offensive rebounding team, and LSU has not seemed to think defensive rebounding is all that important this year.

All of that matters.

The truth, however, is that Tom Izzo is going up a guy that couldn’t get North Texas going.

PICK: My play is going to be betting the LSU first half line and Michigan State second half line. But if you’re looking to make a play at the start of the game, I’d bet Sparty.

7:29 p.m.: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Auburn, TBS

LINE: North Carolina (-5.5)
TOTAL: 165
IMPLIED SCORE: North Carolina 85.25, Auburn 79.75
KENPOM: North Carolina 82, Auburn 78

A matchup between North Carolina and Auburn, two teams that love to run and gun as much as any team in college basketball, has the chance to get crazy.

What Auburn wants to do more than anything is to turn defense into offense, forcing turnovers, grabbing defensive rebounds, running the floor and getting a quick, spot-up three against a defense that isn’t set. They lead the nation in steal percentage. They lead the nation in defensive turnover rate. They shoot 38.2 percent from three and take nearly 50 percent of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. More than 20 percent of their possessions were logged as transition possessions, according to Synergy, and only six high-major programs had a higher number.

One of those six, however, is North Carolina. Another one of those six is Duke, and I mention the Blue Devils because I think that it’s relevant to this conversation: When Auburn and Duke played earlier this year, it ended up being a 71 possession game, a number that is not all that high. Auburn ran when they had clear chances to, but for the most part, they slowed the tempo of the game down and tried to execute in the halfcourt. They knew that trying to beat this Duke team at their own game was not going to work.

I think the same thing is going to happen on Friday night.

PICK: And that’s why the under is my favorite play in the Sweet 16. I fully expect that Auburn is going to take their foot off the gas, because you cannot beat North Carolina playing the game that Roy Williams’ teams play better than anyone. The fact that the Tigers are going to have to throw more bodies at the defensive glass, limiting the number of quick transition opportunities that they get, only solidifies that take.

If I had to pick a side to bet here, I would probably take North Carolina, but that’s assuming that Coby White is going to be able to handle the pressure put on him by Auburn’s defenders and that Nassir Little, who has the flu, is going to be totally healthy.

9:39 p.m.: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech, CBS

LINE: Duke (-7.5)
TOTAL: 143.5
IMPLIED SCORE: Duke 75.5, Virginia Tech 68
KENPOM: Duke 75, Virginia Tech 70

This matchup is interesting because both teams were without their best player the last time they played.

We know how important Zion Williamson is to Duke, but I think that you can make the argument that Justin Robinson is just as important to the Hokies. Not only is he one of the best point guards in the country, Robinson moves Nickeil Alexander-Walker off the ball, which is where he is more effective for the Hokies. See, Buzz Williams runs a ball-screen heavy offense that is perfectly suited to the roster he has built. He has shooters everyone on the floor, he has a pair of point guards that are elite at running ball-screens and he has a big man in Kerry Blackshear that can make threes, beat defenders off the dribble and overpower people in the post.

PICK: The key here to me is going to be whether or not Coach K makes the decision to play Zion Williamson at the five. That is the key to stopping Virginia Tech, and slowing the Hokies down is what Duke is going to have to do to win this game. The first time they played was the worst defensive performance of the season for the Blue Devils, and they cannot afford a repeat performance on that end of the floor.

I’m honestly not even all that worried about what Virginia Tech is going to do because I don’t think it’s going to have much of an impact on how this game plays out. I don’t think they have the personnel to matchup with Duke with a healthy Zion. The Blue Devils are going to be able to sore much more easily than they did against UCF.

The question is whether or not they are going to get stops.

Krzyzewski has opted to play Zion at the five when other things aren’t working, so I can see it happening. I’d lean towards betting Duke (-7.5) in this spot.

9:59 p.m.: No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Houston, TBS

LINE: Kentucky (-3)
TOTAL: 134
IMPLIED SCORE: Kentucky 68.5, Houston 65.5
KENPOM: Kentucky 68, Houston 66

It’s tough to know exactly what to bet here because we have no idea just how healthy P.J. Washington is right now.

Yes, he was in a cast until Tuesday because of an injury to his foot. No, Kentucky provided no clarity regarding his situation or how they will use him. Yes, Kelvin Sampson is preparing as if P.J. Washington is going to be healthy. No, I don’t trust anything that is currently coming out of the Kentucky camp.

PICK: I will not be betting this line myself unless we get some clarity on Washington’s status. If he does play, I’ll be on Kentucky, but if he’s only good for 10-15 minutes of limping around, then Houston is the obvious play here.

Purdue’s Edey returning to school at NBA draft deadline; Kentucky’s Tshiebwe stays in

Associated PressJun 1, 2023, 11:17 AM EDT

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Purdue’s Zach Edey decided it was the right call to go back to school instead of staying in the NBA draft. His predecessor as national player of the year, Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe, is sticking with his pro pursuit.

And Connecticut’s reign as NCAA champion will begin with multiple starters having left for the NBA draft and one returning after flirting with doing the same.

The 7-foot-4 Edey and UConn guard Tristen Newton were among the notable names to announce that they were withdrawing from the draft, the NCAA’s deadline for players who declared as early entrants to pull out and retain their college eligibility.

Edey’s decision came in social media posts from both the center and the Boilermakers program that earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament behind Edey, The Associated Press men’s national player of the year.

But Tshiebwe announced late in the afternoon that he would remain in the draft after a college career that included being named the AP national player of the year in 2022.

For the current champions, Newton (10.1 points, 4.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds) is returning after being one of four Huskies to declare for the draft after a run to UConn’s fifth national championship in early April. He scored a game-high 19 points to go with 10 rebounds in the victory over San Diego State in the title game.

The others were Final Four Most Outstanding Player Adama Sanogo, wing Jordan Hawkins and versatile guard Andre Jackson Jr. Sanogo (17.8 points) and Hawkins (16.3) have made it clear they have closed the door on their college careers, while team spokesman Phil Chardis said that Jackson (6.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists) would remain in the draft.

The Huskies have 247sports’ No. 3-ranked recruiting class for next year to restock the roster, led by McDonald’s All-American point guard Stephon Castle.

The NBA’s withdrawal deadline is June 12, but is moot when it comes to college players returning to school due to the NCAA’s earlier timeline to retain playing eligibility.

STAYING IN SCHOOL

TREY ALEXANDER: Creighton gets back a 6-4 guard who averaged 13.6 points and shot 41% from 3-point range in his first full season as a starter.

ADEM BONA: The 6-foot-10 forward and Pac-12 freshman of the year is returning to UCLA after starting 32 games as a rookie and averaging 7.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks – with coach Mick Cronin praising his toughness for “competing through multiple injuries for as long as he could” in a statement Wednesday.

EDEY: He averaged 22.3 points, 12.9 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.5 assists while shooting 60.7% from the field. His presence alone helps Purdue be a factor in the Big Ten race.

JOSIAH-JORDAN JAMES: The 6-6 guard went through the NBA G League Combine and had workouts with multiple teams before opting to return to Tennessee for a fifth season alongside teammate Santiago Vescovi.

JUDAH MINTZ: The 6-3 freshman averaged 16.3 points and 4.6 assists for Syracuse, ranking third among Division I freshmen in scoring behind only Alabama’s Brandon Miller and Lamar’s Nate Calmese.

OWLS’ RETURNEES: Florida Atlantic got good news after its surprise Final Four run with the return leading scorers Johnell Davis (13.8) and Alijah Martin (13.4). ESPN first reported their decisions, while Martin later posted a social media statement.

TERRENCE SHANNON JR.: Illinois got a big boost with Shannon announcing his night in a social media post. The 6-6 guard is returning for a fifth college season after averaging 17.2 points.

SPARTANS’ RETURNEES: Michigan State announced that guards Jaden Akins and A.J. Hoggard have withdrawn from the NBA draft. Standout guard Tyson Walker had previously withdrawn in April, setting up Tom Izzo to have five of his top scorers back.

GOING PRO

KOBE BROWN: Missouri’s 6-8 swingman opted against returning for a fifth college season after being an AP first-team all-Southeastern Conference pick averaging 15.8 points last season.

JAYLEN CLARK: The third-year UCLA guard averaged 13.0 points and 6.0 rebounds while leading the Pac-12 with 2.6 steals en route to being named Naismith national defensive player of the year. Cronin called him a winner with strong intangibles who made UCLA “a better program because he chose to be a Bruin.”

BRICE SENSABAUGH: The Ohio State freshman averaged 16.3 points and 5.4 rebounds in 31 games before missing his final two in the Big Ten Tournament due to a knee injury. He’s a potential first-round prospect.

TSHIEBWE: The 6-9, 260-pound forward is a tough interior presence who led the country in rebounds for two straight seasons (15.1 in 2022, 13.7 in 2023) while racking up 48 double-doubles. But he faces an uncertain next stop and is projected at best as a second-round prospect.

North Carolina transfer Caleb Love commits to Arizona

Associated PressMay 31, 2023, 10:59 AM EDT

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Caleb Love is now headed to Arizona.

The North Carolina transfer tweeted, less than a month after decommitting from Michigan, that he will play next season with the Wildcats.

“Caleb is a tremendously talented guard who has significant experience playing college basketball at a high level,” Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd said in a statement. “We look forward to helping Caleb grow his game at Arizona. And as we near the completion of the roster for the upcoming season, we feel great about how everything has come together. Now it’s time for the real work to start.”

A 6-foot-4 guard, Love averaged 14.6 points and 3.3 assists in three seasons at North Carolina. He averaged 17.6 points in seven NCAA Tournament games, helping lead the Tar Heels to the 2022 national championship game.

Love entered the transfer portal after leading North Carolina with 73 3-pointers as a junior and initially committed to Michigan. He decommitted from the Wolverines earlier this month, reportedly due to an admissions issue involving academic credits.

Love narrowed his transfer targets to three schools before choosing to play at Arizona over Gonzaga and Texas.

Love will likely start on a team that will have dynamic perimeter players, including Pelle Larsson, Kylan Boswell and Alabama transfer Jaden Bradley.

Biden celebrates LSU women’s and UConn men’s basketball teams at separate White House events

Associated PressMay 26, 2023, 11:56 PM EDT

Jack Gruber / USA TODAY NETWORK

WASHINGTON – All of the past drama and sore feelings associated with Louisiana State’s invitation to the White House were seemingly forgotten or set aside Friday as President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcomed the championship women’s basketball team to the mansion with smiles, hugs and lavish praise all around.

The visit had once appeared in jeopardy after Jill Biden suggested that the losing Iowa team be invited, too. But none of that was mentioned as both Bidens heralded the players for their performance and the way they have helped advance women’s sports.

“Folks, we witnessed history,” the president said. “In this team, we saw hope, we saw pride and we saw purpose. It matters.”

The ceremony was halted for about 10 minutes after forward Sa’Myah Smith appeared to collapse as she and her teammates stood behind Biden. A wheelchair was brought in and coach Kim Mulkey assured the audience that Smith was fine.

LSU said in a statement that Smith felt overheated, nauseous and thought she might faint. She was evaluated by LSU and White House medical staff and was later able to rejoin the team. “She is feeling well, in good spirits, and will undergo further evaluation once back in Baton Rouge,” the LSU statement said.

Since the passage of Title IX in 1972, Biden said, more than half of all college students are women, and there are now 10 times more female athletes in college and high school. He said most sports stories are still about men, and that that needs to change.

Title IX prohibits discrimination based on sex in federally funded education programs and activities.

“Folks, we need to support women sports, not just during the championship run but during the entire year,” President Biden said.

After the Tigers beat Iowa for the NCAA title in April in a game the first lady attended, she caused an uproar by suggesting that the Hawkeyes also come to the White House.

LSU star Angel Reese called the idea “A JOKE” and said she would prefer to visit with former President Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle, instead. The LSU team largely is Black, while Iowa’s top player, Caitlin Clark, is white, as are most of her teammates.

Nothing came of Jill Biden’s idea and the White House only invited the Tigers. Reese ultimately said she would not skip the White House visit. She and co-captain Emily Ward presented team jerseys bearing the number “46” to Biden and the first lady. Hugs were exchanged.

Jill Biden also lavished praise on the team, saying the players showed “what it means to be a champion.”

“In this room, I see the absolute best of the best,” she said, adding that watching them play was “pure magic.”

“Every basket was pure joy and I kept thinking about how far women’s sports have come,” the first lady added, noting that she grew up before Title IX was passed. “We’ve made so much progress and we still have so much more work to do.”

The president added that “the way in which women’s sports has come along is just incredible. It’s really neat to see, since I’ve got four granddaughters.”

After Smith was helped to a wheelchair, Mulkey told the audience the player was OK.

“As you can see, we leave our mark where we go,” Mulkey joked. “Sa’Myah is fine. She’s kind of, right now, embarrassed.”

A few members of Congress and Biden aides past and present with Louisiana roots dropped what they were doing to attend the East Room event, including White House budget director Shalanda Young. Young is in the thick of negotiations with House Republicans to reach a deal by the middle of next week to stave off what would be a globally calamitous U.S. financial default if the U.S. can no longer borrow the money it needs to pay its bills.

The president, who wore a necktie in the shade of LSU’s purple, said Young, who grew up in Baton Rouge, told him, “I’m leaving the talks to be here.” Rep. Garret Graves, one of the House GOP negotiators, also attended.

Biden closed sports Friday by changing to a blue tie and welcoming the UConn’s men’s championship team for its own celebration. The Huskies won their fifth national title by defeating San Diego State, 76-59, in April.

“Congratulations to the whole UConn nation,” he said.

Marquette’s Prosper says he will stay in draft rather than returning to school

Associated PressMay 26, 2023, 7:08 PM EDT

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

MILWAUKEE — Olivier-Maxence Prosper announced he is keeping his name under NBA draft consideration rather than returning to Marquette.

The 6-foot-8 forward announced his decision.

“Thank you Marquette nation, my coaches, my teammates and support staff for embracing me from day one,” Prosper said in an Instagram post. “My time at Marquette has been incredible. With that being said, I will remain in the 2023 NBA Draft. I’m excited for what comes next. On to the next chapter…”

Prosper had announced last month he was entering the draft. He still could have returned to school and maintained his college eligibility by withdrawing from the draft by May 31. Prosper’s announcement indicates he instead is going ahead with his plans to turn pro.

Prosper averaged 12.5 points and 4.7 rebounds last season while helping Marquette go 29-7 and win the Big East’s regular-season and tournament titles. Marquette’s season ended with a 69-60 loss to Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament’s round of 32.

He played two seasons at Marquette after transferring from Clemson, where he spent one season.

Kansas’ Kevin McCullar Jr. returning for last season of eligibility

Associated PressMay 25, 2023, 9:18 PM EDT

Jeffrey Becker/USA TODAY Sports

Kevin McCullar Jr. said that he will return to Kansas for his final year of eligibility, likely rounding out a roster that could make the Jayhawks the preseason No. 1 next season.

McCullar transferred from Texas Tech to Kansas for last season, when he started 33 of 34 games and averaged 10.7 points and 7.0 rebounds. He was also among the nation’s leaders in steals, and along with being selected to the Big 12’s all-defensive team, the 6-foot-6 forward was a semifinalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award.

“To be able to play in front of the best fans in the country; to play for the best coach in the nation, I truly believe we have the pieces to hang another banner in the Phog,” McCullar said in announcing his return.

Along with McCullar, the Jayhawks return starters Dajuan Harris Jr. and K.J. Adams from a team that went 28–8, won the Big 12 regular-season title and was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where it lost to Arkansas in the second round.

Perhaps more importantly, the Jayhawks landed Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson, widely considered the best player in the portal, to anchor a lineup that was missing a true big man. They also grabbed former five-star prospect Arterio Morris, who left Texas, and Towson’s Nick Timberlake, who emerged last season as one of the best 3-point shooters in the country.

The Jayhawks also have an elite recruiting class arriving that is headlined by five-star recruit Elmarko Jackson.

McCullar declared for the draft but, after getting feedback from scouts, decided to return. He was a redshirt senior last season, but he has another year of eligibility because part of his career was played during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This is a big day for Kansas basketball,” Jayhawks coach Bill Self said. “Kevin is not only a terrific player but a terrific teammate. He fit in so well in year one and we’re excited about what he’ll do with our program from a leadership standpoint.”