PAC-12 PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Jaylen Nowell, Washington
Nowell is the best player on the best team in the conference. He leads the Huskies in scoring (16.3 ppg) and assists (3.1 apg) and is the first player since Brandon Roy to with the league’s Player of the Year award, and perhaps the most telling part of this is that Nowell ended out his teammate Matisse Thybulle for the award. Both, frankly, have been terrific, but where Nowell is the guys that ignites Washington’s scoring, Thybulle is their best defensive weapon and the biggest reason their zone is so effective.
PAC-12 COACH OF THE YEAR: Mike Hopkins, Washington
Hop has done a good job with Washington this year, one that does not look as good at the end of the season as it did two weeks ago. That’s when they lost at Cal, the worst team in the Pac-12, and before they lost at home to Oregon in the season finale. But here’s the thing — they had already clinched the Pac-12 regular season title before those games tipped off. In a year where the conference was a dumpster fire, Washington was a beacon of consistency. That’s enough to get you a Coach of the Year award.
FIRST TEAM ALL-PAC-12
JAYLEN NOWELL, Washington
MATISSE THYBULLE, Washington
KZ OKPALA, Stanford
ZYLAN CHEATHAM, Arizona State
TRES TINKLE, Oregon State
SECOND TEAM ALL-PAC-12
MCKINLEY WRIGHT, Colorado
LUGUENTZ DORT, Arizona State
SEDRICK BAREFIELD, Utah
BENNIE BOATWRIGHT, USC
ROBERT FRANKS, Washington State
PAC-12 TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
WHEN: March 13-16 WHERE: Las Vegas FINAL: March 16, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
(All odds are courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
FAVORITE: Washington (+300)
In-so-much as there is a favorite in this conference, it is the Huskies. They won the league by two full games and that’s despite going 2-2 in the final four. They have the best player in the conference in Jaylen Nowell, the best defender in Matisse Thybulle and arguably the best low post scorer in Noah Dickerson. Their zone flusters teams, and in a year where nothing in the league makes sense, Washington had wrapped up the conference regular season title by February 28th.
In a conference where nothing makes any sense, Washington makes … some?
SLEEPER: Oregon (+400)
The books are agreeing with me here, as Oregon is the No. 6 seed yet they have the same odds to win the Pac-12 tournament as ARIZONA STATE (+400), the No. 2 seed. What makes the Ducks interesting is that they are the best defensive team in the conference this side of Washington, they have a point guard in Payton Pritchard that has played in a Final Four and they are slotted in the bracket where a second round game would come against UTAH (+750), who they beat on the road. They’ve also won four straight heading into March, with two of those wins coming against Arizona State and at Washington. This team is hot.
BEST VALUE: Colorado (+650)
Honestly, I think that Washington is probably the best value here. There isn’t another conference in the country where you can bet on the conference champion and the favorite to cut down the nets and get 3:1 on it. I probably would not bet on the Ducks, seeing as they have to win four games in four days and are getting paid off at the same price as Arizona State to win three games in three days. I would not bet Arizona State either, for that matter.
The team that actually interests me is Colorado. They have won eight of their last ten games this season, and their 1-2 punch of McKinley Wright and Tyler Bey is as dangerous as anyone in the league. They would get Oregon State in the quarters and Washington in the semis, which isn’t ideal, but that’s baked into the odds.
ARIZONA STATE (NET: 67, SOS: 71): So here’s the thing about Arizona State — they have three good wins that don’t look as good as they did three months ago thanks to Kansas (20) coming back to earth. They have 11 Q1 and Q2 wins and an 11-5 mark in those games, but they also have two Q3 losses and two hideous Q4 losses. They have some room to work with right now, but if they lose to either UCLA (118) or Stanford (106), that would be a fifth loss against a Q3 or Q4 team. If a few other teams on the bubble make a run and a few Bid Thieves strike, things could turn on Bobby Hurley. My guess: They’re back in the play-in game.
WHAT ELSE IS ON THE LINE?
If Arizona State loses in the first round of the tournament, there is a very real chance that this could end up being a one-bid league.
Think about that.
A one-bid league.
I’m going to stick with my guy and say that Oregon beats Washington for the second straight time to give the Pac-12 their second bid to the tournament.
The College Hoops Contender Series: Who are the teams that can actually win a title?
Who are the favorites to win a national title? Who can legitimately be called a contender? Who has the pieces to make a run to the Final Four?
We will break all that down for you here.
Michigan State (6/1)
Michigan State is the best team in college basketball. They have the best player in college basketball in Cassius Winston. They bring back basically the same roster from the team that won 30 games last season and took down the Big Ten regular season title, the Big Ten tournament title and advanced to the Final Four. There is a very legitimate reason why they are the biggest favorite to win the title.
And I think all of this even after the news that Joshua Langford will miss at least the first three months of the season after aggravating the injury to his ankle that caused him to miss all but 13 games last year. Because Michigan State did it last season without Langford. Losing him certainly isn’t going to make things easier for the Spartans, but if he’s able to come back for the stretch run healthy, rested and with something to prove, Michigan State will be just fine.
The more I think about things, the more than I believe Kansas is the second-best team in college basketball this season. They have an All-American caliber point guard in Devon Dotson, who should be in line for a sophomore jump after a really good freshman campaign. They have an All-American caliber center in Udoka Azubuike, a guy that they can and have run their offense through. There is enough talent on the wings – Ochai Agbaji, Isaiah Moss, Marcus Garrett – that Bill Self can get away with being limited at the four.
And yes, this is narrative-driven and based on absolutely zero data, but the Jayhawks are coming off of arguably the most embarrassing 12 months in the history of their program. Last year they became the first Kansas team in 15 seasons that did not win the Big 12 regular season title. They have been front and center during this FBI investigation into corruption in college basketball. They’ve dealt with the fallout from Billy Preston, Silvio De Sousa, T.J. Gassnola, Snoop Dogg and Bill Self’s Adidas attire. It feels like this is a team that has something to prove and a statement to make.
The addition of Kerry Blackshear Jr. was a difference-maker for the Gators. Suddenly, a Florida team that was built entirely around a talented crop of perimeter weapons now has an anchor in their frontcourt. Blackshear should thrive playing with this group because he thrived playing for a Virginia Tech team that was similar last season.
But there is more to it than just Blackshear. For starters, Andrew Nembhard returned for his sophomore season, and I fully expect that he will develop into one of the best point guards in the nation this year. They add talented freshmen Tre Mann and Scottie Lewis while the likes of Noah Locke and Keyontae Johnson are back as well.
The Gators are young, but they are talented and – this is the important part – their roster fits together better this season. Inefficient chuckers Jalen Hudson and Kevaughn Allen are gone, and when combined with the talent infusion and improvement of the returnees, the Gators could end up being the best team in the SEC this season.
On paper, this Kentucky team looks to be absolutely loaded. They bring back two guards – Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley – that were five-star prospects for a sophomore season. They also bring back E.J. Montgomery, another five-star sophomore that some have projected could be in line for a P.J. Washington-esque jump as a sophomore. Their freshman class is loaded: Tyrese Maxey, Johnny Juzang, Kahlil Whitney, Keion Brooks. They add Bucknell grad transfer Nate Sestina to a frontcourt that includes junior Nick Richards.
I think they are definitively a top three team in the country.
I also think that the Wildcats are just slightly below Kansas in the pecking order. The reason for that? I have no feel as to how they are going to play. I have no feel as to who their best player will be. Who is going to be their go-to guy? Their leading scorer? John Calipari is going to figure this thing out, but I think the learning curve is going to be steeper than it is for some of the other teams at the top of the rankings.
Before we talk about what Louisville actually is this season, think about this for a second: Two years ago, the Cardinals had just fired their Hall of Fame head coach, they lost their best recruit because Adidas paid him, their Athletic Director was run out of town and that all happened right after they had to pull a national title banner out of the rafters. And not only were they still able to sign one of the best young coaches in America despite the fact that a postseason ban may or may not be hanging over their head, but a year after he took the job he has Louisville sitting as the favorite to win the ACC.
Louisville is awesome, by the way. Jordan Nwora is the NBC Sports ACC Preseason Player of the Year and a Preseason First Team All-American. They have size, they have depth, they had a loaded six-man recruiting class that Mack will be able to bring along slowly. Injuries are a bit of a concern, as David Johnson and Malik Williams are working through some things, and there are some question marks about point guard play, but overall this is just a good basketball team.
FINAL FOUR THREATS
The talent is obvious. Vernon Carey is going to be one of the most productive big men in the country. Matthew Hurt is a prototype small-ball four. Wendell Moore is going to end up being a first round pick because of the way he can guard. And Tre Jones could very well end up being the best player on this Duke roster next season. There is a lot to like about the Blue Devils.
But the major concern that I have is how all of these pieces fit together. I wrote about this at length earlier this month, but Duke is one of those teams where I just don’t see how they are going to be able to field a team that will be both good offensively and good defensively. Coach K is going to have some things to figure out this year.
The Zags are the team that I am having the most trouble projecting this season. On the one hand, they just whipped up on Michigan State in a secret scrimmage without Killian Tillie. On the other hand, Tillie might be their most talented player and he is still dealing with knee issues, and I’m not fully ready to buy into Admon Gilder and Ryan Woolridge being the answer at the point.
Then again, that trio plus Corey Kispert and Filip Petrusev with the likes of Drew Timme and Oumar Ballo on the bench is quite intriguing. I don’t think they are going to be as good as they were in 2017 or last season, but the Zags will certainly have a roster talented enough to win six games in March.
I’ve written too much about the Tigers over the course of the last month, so I’ll refer you to this video. In short: Memphis has the talent to win the whole thing. They also will start five freshmen and will have seven freshmen in their rotation. That’s not ideal.
North Carolina (10/1)
Just how good do you think Cole Anthony is going to be in his one and only season in Chapel Hill? Because this is going to be his team. The Tar Heels lost their top five scorers from last season, three of whom were first round picks and a fourth who was an All-American.
He’s not going to be all alone, mind you. Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks make up a pretty good front line while the addition of grad transfers Justin Pierce and Christian Keeling provide some shot-making and experience on their perimeter. But none of that really matters if Anthony doesn’t end up being a National Player of the Year candidate.
I actually think that the Ducks are one of the best future values currently on the board. This is a team with a point guard that will deservedly be in the conversation for Pac-12 Player of the Year this season. They add a pair of talented grad transfers in Anthony Mathis and Shakur Juiston. Their freshmen class is loaded, as always, and their are a couple of perimeter scorers in Chris Duarte and Will Richardson that should be really good playing in Dana Altman’s swing offense.
Oh, and I have to make mention of Altman, who is as good as anyone this side of Chris Beard at finding a way to get a bunch of pieces that have never played together to fit together. The Ducks are legit.
The Cougars are going to be right back in the mix now that Quentin Grimes has been ruled eligible to play this season. He and DeJon Jarreau will be the best backcourt in the American and one of the best backcourts in America, and with plenty of big bodies up front – and a head coach in Kelvin Sampson that has a reputation for being one of the best coaches in the country – they certainly have the horses to make a run in March. They’ve done it for two years running now.
Betting on Maryland to live up to lofty expectations has rarely been a profitable venture, but the expectations are there for a reason this season. Anthony Cowan has All-American potential, Jalen Smith is the kind of player that can turn into a lottery pick with some more seasoning and the sophomore class has a whole is very good and very deep.
Ohio State (50/1)
How good do you think D.J. Carton is? If you believe that he, as a freshman, is ready to be the full-time starting point guard for a team that is going to make a run in March, then the Buckeyes should be considered among the nation’s best. Kaleb Wesson is a monster, they have options up front an on the wing and they have Chris Holtmann. What they don’t have is a proven, elite level point guard, and I’m not convinced C.J. Walker is more than just a game manager.
So if you think Carton is going to arrive in Columbus ready to take on anyone and everyone in front of him, then you should invest heavily in the Buckeyes at 50-1.
Texas Tech (30/1)
Of the 11 players that Texas Tech has eligible for this season, eight of them are freshmen or sophomores. Of the upperclassmen, two are grad transfers, neither of whom played last season. One of the two grad transfers played for Stephen F. Austin in the Southland last year. The most important player on the roster is Jahmius Ramsey, a top 35 recruit that is the most highly-touted player to enter Chris Beard’s program since he’s been in Lubbock. He has to fill the Jarrett Culver-Keenan Evans role offensively, but there have been rumblings that Ramsey’s ego hasn’t exactly meshed with the Red Raider ethos early on.
If Tech is going to live up to the expectations that the last two seasons have set, so much is going to come down to whether or not someone like Chris Clarke or Davide Moretti can set a tone and keep the program’s culture at the level it was the last two years.
The most talented players on this Villanova roster are freshmen. Freshmen take a notoriously long time to acclimate to the way Jay Wright wants to play, and that is before you factor in the shoulder injury Bryan Antoine is still recovering from. The upperclassmen on this Villanova roster have yet to prove that they are capable of carrying the flag the way that the likes of Josh Hart, or Jalen Brunson, or Phil Booth and Eric Paschall have. Can Jermaine Samuels live up to the hype? Just how good is Collin Gillispie, or Dhamir Cosby-Rountree? That’s a lot of question marks for one roster.
Virginia has 2019 Villanova written all over them. This is a program that is built on player development, getting old and staying old. They thrive by bringing in three- and four-star prospects and turning them into NBA players by the time they leave. It’s a carefully orchestrated plan, one that gets thrown for a loop when they lose guys like Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy a year earlier than expected.
Overall, they’re going to be fine. They’re going to have a young, unproven and inexperienced backcourt. A lot is going to be put on Kihei Clark’s plate. His ability to handle the job of replacing Ty Jerome will determine what UVA’s ceiling is this season.
Kansas transfer Grimes receives waiver, eligible immediately at Houston
Maybe we now know why Houston was picked to win the AAC over Memphis.
On Tuesday, news broke that Quentin Grimes had won his appeal and received a waiver to gain immediate eligibility this season. Grimes was a top ten prospect in the Class of 2018, but after going for 21 points in the season opening Champions Classic, he struggled. In 36 games, Grimes averaged just 8.4 points and 2.0 assists while failing to prove himself a lead guard and struggling with consistency as a shooter.
Part of the reason why Grimes eventually was ruled eligible for this season was that Kansas did not have a scholarship available for him. The Jayhawks supported his eligibility throughout the process.
Grimes will get a chance at starting over with Houston, where Kelvin Sampson has proven to be exceptional at getting the most out of his backcourt. He’ll join DeJon Jarreau, one of this year’s breakout stars, and Nate Hinton in Houston’s perimeter.
With Grimes in the mix, Houston has the making of a top 20 team.
Grimes released the following statement on twitter:
The joy of being named the No. 1 team in the AP preseason poll lasted for a matter of hours for Michigan State.
Because that’s when the Spartans found out that Joshua Langford, who missed the second half of last season, would be out for another three months after suffering a setback in his attempt to return from that ankle injury.
“It breaks my heart,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo told reporters on Tuesday. “I love Josh Langford. He’s given me everything on the court, off the court, in the classroom.”
Langford started the first 13 games last season before the ankle injury kept him out, but he was cleared to practice in full in September. But Izzo said on Tuesday that Langford’s ankle had limited him of late and that he did not play when the Spartans scrimmaged Gonzaga in Denver on Saturday.
College Basketball’s Breakout Stars: Who will be this year’s most improved players?
One of my favorite things to do heading into a season is to put together a list of the season’s Breakout Stars.
Sometimes, the picks are just too obvious – think De’Andre Hunter, or P.J. Washington, or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Sometimes, those obvious picks just don’t pan out – like Herb Jones, or M.J. Walker, or Cane Broome.
Sometimes, a guy needs to be on the list for a couple years before he actually reaches said breakout – hi Jermaine Samuels!
Some people have strictly-defined parameters for putting together a list like this. I do not, beyond the basic principle that the player will be going from playing a role to being a star, whether that means he was a starter that will become an all-american or a bit-player slated to be a key cog on a potential Final Four team matters not.
Anyway, here are the 17 players that will be household names by the end of the year:
JERMAINE SAMUELS, Villanova
There’s an argument to make that Samuels’ breakout already happened.
It happened on February 28th of last season. Samuels popped off for a career-high 29 points, hitting five threes, as Villanova snapped a three-game losing streak by knocking off Marquette at home. During that three-game losing streak, Samuels had gone scoreless while attempting just two shots. Over the final seven games of the season, he averaged 11.0 points, cracked double-figures five times and helped lead the Wildcats to their fifth Big East regular season title and fourth Big East tournament title in the last six years.
And now the Wildcats are entering a season without Phil Booth and Eric Paschall to carry the offense while Bryan Antoine, their five-star freshman guard, is out with a shoulder injury. Someone needs to provide Villanova with some scoring. Samuels is a former top 40 recruit that picked Villanova over Duke and Kansas, that has proven the ability to put up big numbers and is a perfect fit for what Villanova’s offense has been over the course of the last half-decade. He’s a junior now. This is the year that players make the leap on the Main Line, and I’ll be ready for it.
ANDREW NEMBHARD, Florida
Everyone wants to talk about Kerry Blackshear and what his arrival will mean for Florida. What people seem to be forgetting is that Andrew Nembhard is a former five-star recruits that averaged 8.0 points and 5.4 assists as a freshman for the Gators and will be helping to fill the “role” vacated by uber-inefficient gunners Jalen Hudson and Kevaughn Allen. I think Blackshear ends up being the best player on the Gators this season, but Nembhard may end up being their MVP and their leader. On a team that projects to finish in the top ten and contend for SEC titles and the Final Four, that’s going to put him in the All-American conversation. That, to me, counts as a breakout star.
TRE JONES, Duke
This all hinges on what Jones becomes as a shooter this season. We’ve talked about this ad nauseum. I put together an entire video about it. Jones may just be the most influential player in all of college basketball this season.
TYRESE HALIBURTON, Iowa State
I’m torn about having Haliburton on this list because I’m not exactly sure how much better he can play than he did over the first three months of last season. That said, Iowa State is going to be one of the better teams in the Big 12 this season, and after a terrific performance playing for Team USA in the U-19 World Cup, Haliburton returns to Ames to play for an Iowa State team that lost pretty much everyone in front of him in the offensive pecking order.
The thing to note here is that I am not expecting Haliburton to suddenly become a guy that averages 18 points. That’s not who he is or how he plays. But I do think that there is a chance that he puts up a stat line that is somewhere around 12 points, six boards, six assists and two steals while shooting better than 40 percent from three. Put another way, we’re going to know that he is a star without having to look at the counting numbers to confirm it.
JAY HUFF, Virginia
We have talked plenty about Jay Huff and Virginia’s big guys in this space, but I think that he is in line for a massive jump this season. On the one hand, he’s actually going to be playing. Huff was in the same recruiting class as Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy. He redshirted his first year in Charlottesville, he played just twelve games as a freshman and managed to see the floor for roughly 10 minutes a night last year. With so much of Virginia’s frontcourt depth gone, he is going to be getting 30-35 minutes a night this year.
But as we talked about in the video below, it’s not just the added minutes that changes things. It’s how good Huff is as the big guy in ball-screen actions and the fact that Virginia ran a more ball-screen heavy offense last season. Huff is a 7-foot-1 rim-running, lob-catching, shot-blocking menace that also shoots threes at a 45 percent clip while being able to put the ball on the floor. He’s going to have a massive year.
ISAIAH LIVERS, Michigan
With Iggy Brazdeikis gone after his one-and-done season, Livers is going to be the guy that steps up for the Wolverines. A hyper-athletic, 6-foot-7 combo-forward, Livers is a good, versatile defensive weapon that shot 42.6 percent from three last year. Someone is going to have to step up and fill the scoring void that has been vacated by the departures, and Livers seems to be the obvious fit. I would not be shocked to see Livers showing up in NBA mock drafts at some point during this season.
DEJON JARREAU, Houston
This one is simple, really. Jarreau played just 18 minutes per game last season and still managed to put up 8.7 points and 3.3 assists despite sharing the backcourt with the likes of Corey Davis, Armoni Brooks and Galen Robinson. This year, those three are gone, which means that Jarreau is going to be the guy that the offense runs through. I think that he is up for the task, and considering Kelvin Sampson’s track record of finding a way to figure things out with his lead guards, all the dots connect.
NOJEL EASTERN, Purdue
Matt Painter has been as good as anyone in the country at finding ways to get his best players into positions where they can succeed, and I think that this year is the year that he figures out how to take advantage of the things that Eastern does well. He’s a skilled passer that has terrific size at the point and has proven the ability to take smaller guards into the post. I think that Aaron Wheeler and Trevion Williams are candidates for this list as well, but I tend to lean towards the veterans when it comes to Painter working his magic.
OCHAI AGBAJI, Kansas
This pick is not actually as easy as it may seem, and that’s because Agbaji’s emergence last season came after Udoka Azubuike went down with his wrist injury. So while Kansas is losing Dedric Lawson, among other, Azubuike is coming back and is going to demand a very large market share of the Jayhawks offense. Throw in Devon Dotson’s continued development, and the added opportunities for Agbaji may not be there. That said, I think that he is clearly the most talented perimeter player on the Jayhawks roster this season, and given his size, athleticism and ability from the perimeter, I think there is a real chance that he ends up playing major minutes as the four in this Kansas system.
Put another way, he’s definitely going to be better than he was when his redshirt was pulled midway through his first season in Lawrence, and he is definitely going to be a useful weapon for Bill Self, I just don’t see him emerging as a guy that scores 15 points per game.
COREY KISPERT and FILIP PETRUSEV, Gonzaga
These decisions somewhat hinge on whether or not Killian Tillie is back and fully healthy this season. If he is, then I think that Kispert is the guy that takes the biggest step forward for the Zags. He’s an underrated talent that has been hidden by the likes of Zach Norvell and Rui Hachimura, but he’s a guy that has the potential to be an all-WCC performer if given the opportunity. If Tillie ends up being banged up all season long, than Petrusev is the obvious pick. He’s a really talented big that will carry even more of the load without Tillie’s presence.
REGGIE PERRY, Mississippi State
After getting off to a relatively slow start to his freshman season, Perry was absolutely dominant for long stretches of SEC play. He averaged 11.2 points and 8.2 boards during conference play, posting eight double-doubles. After an offseason to develop, he should end up being the focal point of Ben Howland’s offense as a sophomore.
KIRA LEWIS, Alabama
The way that Nate Oats played at Buffalo, he gave his lead guards quite a bit of responsibility. Lewis is going to be his lead guard this season. As a 17-year old in the SEC, he averaged 13.5 points and 2.9 assists. He’s heading into his sophomore season at the same age as the kids in the Class of 2019 heading into their freshmen year.
JOE WIESKAMP, Iowa
As a freshman, Wieskamp was one of the best shooters in the Big Ten, averaging 11.1 points and shooting 42.4 percent from three. Then Iowa lost Tyler Cook to the draft and lost Isaiah Moss to transfer and look like they may have lost Jordan Bohannon for the season. Someone is going to have to score, and Wieskamp is certainly capable of that.
OSUN OSUNNIYI, St. Bonaventure
Osunniyi was one of the best defensive players in all of college basketball last season, averaging 2.7 blocks to go along with his 7.5 points and 7.6 boards. With three of the Bonnies’ top four scorers graduating, he is going to be asked to play a much bigger role this season.
NATE REUVERS, Wisconsin
There is always someone waiting in the wings in Wisconsin’s frontcourt, and this year it is Nate Reuvers. As a sophomore, playing on a team that ran their offense through Ethan Happ, Reuvers averaged 7.9 points, 3.9 boards and 1.8 blocks while shooting 38.1 percent from three. If the Badgers are going to get back to the NCAA tournament, they are going to need Reuvers to have a monster junior season.
JALEN HILL, UCLA
Hill is a bit of a reach, but someone is going to have to step up and be Mick Cronin’s frontcourt anchor, and Hill makes sense. He’s long and athletic, he can rebound and he can block shots, he can do all of the things that Cronin got out of his big men for the last 13 years in Cincinnati. There is more talent in Westwood than people realize. Hill is the perfect example of that.
Michigan’s Franz Wagner out 4-6 weeks with fractured wrist
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Michigan freshman Franz Wagner is expected to miss four to six weeks with a fractured right wrist.
The school said Monday a full recovery is anticipated. The 6-foot-8 Wagner is the younger brother of former Michigan standout Moe Wagner. He’s expected to be a key newcomer in the basketball team’s first season under new coach Juwan Howard.
The Wolverines open Nov. 5 against Appalachian State. They face Creighton on Nov. 12 and Louisville on Dec. 3, and play in a tournament in the Bahamas in late November. Those are all games Wagner could conceivably miss if he ends up on the long end of his recovery timeline.