The most recent NBC Sports bracket projection can be found here.
GEORGETOWN (NET: 81, SOS: 80): During most seasons, Georgetown’s profile wouldn’t merit inclusion in any sort of bubble discussion. The Hoyas played an incredibly weak non-conference schedule. They were 5-7 in the Big East entering Wednesday night. But after knocking off Villanova at home for a Q1 win, somehow, the Hoyas continue to hold an outside shot at an at-large bid. Standing at 3-4 in Q1 contests and 4-4 in Q2 games, Georgetown has been respectable against the limited quality competition they’ve played. The 2-2 Q3 mark and the non-conference schedule will be a lot to overcome during the next few weeks.
FLORIDA (NET: 33, SOS: 29): Sitting at “First Four Out” status, the Gators might have just played their way in (for now) with a massive overtime road win at No. 13 LSU. Florida’s best Q1 win of the season could not have come at a better time as the Gators now have two such wins within the past five days. Although they’re only 3-10 against Q1 teams, that record looks a lot better than the 1-10 mark Florida was at last week. Riding a three-game winning streak, the next three games on the schedule (Missouri, at Vanderbilt, Georgia) are all winnable for the Gators as they have a chance to build some momentum heading into a final two games that includes a rematch with LSU and a road game at Kentucky. Florida still needs to take care of business the next few weeks, but this is the kind of win they desperately needed at this point in the season.
SYRACUSE (NET: 48, SOS: 24): Putting together a convincing ACC home win over No. 18 Louisville, the Orange helped themselves immensely with another Q1 win. Sitting at a No. 9 seed before this outcome, Syracuse now finds themselves at 3-4 against Q1 teams and a solid 4-2 against Q2 teams. Perhaps most importantly, Syracuse got the Q1 win here that they had to have. The final five games on the Orange’s schedule includes games against three top-ten teams — Duke, North Carolina and Virginia. So this Louisville win is a solid insurance policy heading into a rough final stretch. As long as the Orange don’t fall to Wake, while also ideally taking care of Clemson, they should be able to get in even if they drop a couple.
ARIZONA STATE (NET: 68, SOS: 67): Alternating wins and losses for seven consecutive games, the Sun Devils finally settled down and started mini win streak with a home win over Stanford. The win is only of the Q3 variety for Arizona State, but as a team hovering in “Last Four Byes” territory, they’ll take what they can get in the win column. The next Sun Devil game at home against Cal should be a breeze. Three consecutive road games to close the regular season is where things get intriguing for Arizona State as they finish at Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona. Work is still left to do, but Arizona State did what they were supposed to here.
OHIO STATE (NET: 45, SOS: 59): The Buckeyes did what they needed to do in taking care of Northwestern at home for a Q3 win. Snapping a two-game slide with the victory, Ohio State has a brutal Big Ten conference slate to end the regular season, as this is a positive start. With four of their last five games coming against top-25 teams (at Maryland, Iowa, at Purdue, Wisconsin), things are certainly going to be difficult for the Buckeyes. But they’ll also have ample opportunities to take themselves off the bubble as they have a lot of Q1 games left.
N.C. STATE (NET: 31, SOS: 209): Escaping with an overtime win over Boston College, the Wolfpack avoided a potentially disastrous loss to start a mostly easy stretch of schedule to end the season. Only a Q3 win on Wednesday, N.C. State has Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and a road return to Boston College left on the schedule. All of those games probably need to be wins for the Pack to feel safe. The most important game left, however, is the road game at Florida State that offers a Q1 opportunity to potentially solidify an at-large bid.
UTAH STATE (NET: 34, SOS: 122): Putting away New Mexico with a strong second half, Utah State did what they needed to do to earn a Q4 home win. Since the Mountain West is so weak this season, the Aggies are awaiting the opportunity to get another crack at top-ten Nevada as Utah State hosts the Wolf Pack on March 2nd. Until then the Aggies just need to avoid any other losses if they hope to get an at-large spot.
SETON HALL (NET: 60, SOS: 46): Trouble could be on the horizon for the Pirates after a home loss to Xavier. Suffering a Q3 loss at this point in the season could really sting as Seton Hall is now a mediocre 4-3 against that group. The good news for the Pirates is that they still have plenty of games to pick up quality wins. Road games at St. John’s and Georgetown and home games against Marquette and Villanova all spell opportunities for Seton Hall to strengthen the profile before the end of the regular season. But that’s also a very tough four-game stretch that will require Seton Hall to win at least a few of those games.
ARKANSAS (NET: 71, SOS: 46): Four consecutive losses likely takes the Razorbacks off the bubble after a blowout road loss at Auburn. Now only 1-7 against Q1 teams and 2-3 against Q2 teams, Arkansas just doesn’t have the quality wins to get into the Field of 68. If Arkansas has any hope of an at-large, they’ll have to win out to close the regular season — including a road game at Kentucky and home games with Ole Miss and Alabama. For a young team in the midst of a losing streak, that doesn’t seem very likely at this point.
BUTLER (NET: 49, SOS: 28): At “Last Four In” status heading into Wednesday, the Bulldogs dropped a game at No. 11 Marquette in which they led at halftime. Missing out on a critical Q1 road win will sting, as Butler sits at an uninspiring 1-7 against that group of teams. The Bulldogs can’t hang their heads with so many important games ahead. Two against Providence, a road game at Villanova and a home game against Xavier looms as Butler needs all the wins they can get to land in the tournament.
LIPSCOMB (NET: 38, SOS: 234): Falling to Florida Gulf Coast likely means the at-large dream is over for the Bison as they’ve now lost two of their last three games. While Lipscomb is still a big contender to potentially win the autobid out of the Atlantic Sun (along with Liberty), a Q4 loss — with an already-shaky at-large profile — isn’t going to cut it. At this point in the season, Lipscomb just doesn’t have enough Q1 and Q2 opportunities left to play its way back into an at-large position.