Best Bets: Previewing Duke vs. North Carolina

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No. 8 NORTH CAROLINA at No. 1 DUKE, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)
  • VEGAS LINES: Duke (-9), 166
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: Duke 87.5, North Carolina: 78.5
  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Duke 90, UNC 79
  • TORVIK PROJECTION: Duke 93, UNC 82
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Duke 94, UNC 82

The first battle between the two biggest brands in the ACC will take place on Wednesday night, and it promises to be one of the most entertaining games of the season even if it’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels walking into Cameron Indoor Stadium and picking up a win.

Before we even think about getting into the matchups, let’s dive into the projections. KenPom, Torvik and Haslametrics all project Duke to win by double digits with totals somewhere between 169 and 176. The line opened at Duke (-9) with a total of 166, and while that may seem like a massive number to get to, what we have to keep in mind here is that both of these teams want to run, run, run.

North Carolina plays at the fifth-fastest tempo in the country, according to KenPom. Duke ranks 18th in pace. North Carolina plays with the third-shortest offensive possessions in college basketball. Duke ranks 11th in that category. North Carolina’s offense is entirely built around their primary break which leads into a secondary break, where the Tar Heels look for quick actions out of an offense that are dictated by what Coby White decides to do with the ball when he gets it over halfcourt. Duke’s pace numbers are so high because of how many live-ball turnovers they force and how often those turnovers lead to easy layups at the other end of the floor.

Long story short, I think the over here is the best bet, although I will be curious to see if and where the line moves. Part of me hopes that people will see that number, assume that there is no possible way that number can hit and bet it down.

In terms of what to do with the line, I still tend to lean Duke.

For starters, so much of the success North Carolina has had this season has come from Coby White being awesome. There really isn’t much analysis that needs to be done when a potential top 20 pick finds a rhythm and pops off for 25 points. That’s what he did in the win over Virginia Tech. It’s what he did to save UNC against Miami. He’s going to be asked to deal with the defense of Tre Jones, and while the legend Jones’ defensive ability has reached a level that I’m not sure even he can attain — ask Jay Bilas, and he’ll tell you Tre is the best on-ball defender since humans began walking upright — he is an absolute menace that has the ability to completely take an opposing point guard out of the game.

And White has been taken out of games before. He was dreadful in the 21 point loss to Louisville in January. In December, Ashton Hagans turned Coby White into Cobie Smulders (NOBODY ASKED YOU PATRICE!) as Kentucky beat UNC in Chicago.

Who wins that matchup will be pivotal.

What will be more interesting, however, is going to be how Roy Williams decides to line up.

It’s no secret that Williams wants to play two bigs as often as possible. That’s his bread and butter, it’s a style that has won him three national championships — including one just two years ago. What he does have worked over the course of a three decade Hall of Fame career, why wouldn’t he try to find a way to make it work with the roster that he has now.

The problem with that is that his most talented lineup this season does not feature two bigs. It features Luke Maye at the five with Nassir Little and Cam Johnson playing alongside him, and I bring that up because that is the lineup that I think UNC is going to have to play if they want any chance of hanging with this Duke team in Cameron.

Think about it this way: If Luke Maye is playing the four alongside Sterling Manley or Brandon Huffman or whoever, then Maye is going to be guarding one of Zion Williams, Cam Reddish or R.J. Barrett, and that would not be a good thing for Mr. Maye.

But if Maye is at the five, it means that Marques Bolden is going to have to chase him around the perimeter while Cam Johnson, Kenny Williams and Nassir Little get matched up with Duke’s Big Three.

(Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)

Little is an interesting case because there are multiple reasons he hasn’t been playing as much as you might expect. Part of it is that the skillset that makes him so attractive in the NBA — the versatility, the switchability, the fact that he can play the three or the four — just doesn’t work in a system that defines players as bigs or as wings. He’s not Justin Jackson and he’s not Kennedy Meeks, but he’s also not as well-rounded offensively as someone like Theo Pinson, so he’s like forcing a square peg in a round hole right now.

He also gets lost on the offensive end of the floor way too often for a kid that’s near the end of his freshman season, and he would be asked to slot into a position that he isn’t necessarily used to playing. But I don’t think that is what’s important here. What is going to matter is having someone that can get as close to matching Zion’s athleticism as possible, and that is Little. He may not have a clue, but his motor isn’t going to stop, and in a game like this, the athleticism and the effort are going to be two things that are really, really valuable.

PICKS: To me, the over is the clear bet. The way to beat Duke is to control tempo, to play a gapping defense that forces jumpers over the top and to keep them out of transition by fading the offensive glass. UNC wants to run more than Duke does, they pound the offensive glass harder than just about anyone — which means easy second chances when it works and easy runouts for Duke when it doesn’t — and they don’t have the horses to defend the way that a Louisville or a Virginia does.

But all signs here are also pointing me towards Duke (-9).

NCAA steering farther and farther away from harsh penalties

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The days of postseason bans and crippling scholarship reductions to punish schools for breaking NCAA rules appear to be winding down.

Memphis was placed on three years of probation earlier this week with a public reprimand and fined for NCAA violations related to the recruitment and short college career of James Wiseman, who is about to start his third season with the Golden State Warriors. The NCAA also wrapped up an investigation of Air Force football for breaking the COVID-19 recruiting quiet period.

No postseason bans or scholarship reductions in either case. The Independent Accountability Review Panel, the NCAA’s outside arm of enforcement, said in its decision in the Memphis case that it did not want to punish current athletes.

That sentiment is widespread in college athletics these days, even with millions of dollars suddenly flowing to athletes from various sources for their celebrity endorsements amid concerns over improper inducements. In fact, it is on the way to being codified: Last month, the Division I Board of Directors adopted three proposals to change the infractions process.

The board also committed to “identifying appropriate types of penalties and modifying current penalty ranges, including identifying potential alternative penalties to postseason bans.”

Trying to predict what those alternatives will be is difficult, but if the goal is to avoid harming athletes and others who were not involved in the violations the options are limited.

“I emphatically believe it’s the wrong direction to go,” said Nebraska law professor Jo Potuto, who spent nine years on the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

“If you’re going to deter, the punishment has to fit the offense, right?” Potuto added. “You’re not going to deter serious violations with penalties that are not perceived to be really serious.”

Since January 2020, there have been at least 45 major infractions cases decided by the NCAA. Of those, at least 15 involved Level I allegations, the most serious and those carrying the most severe penalties; six cases resulted in some kind of postseason ban, with four of them self-imposed.

The Memphis case went through the IARP, which was created in response to the FBI’s investigation of college basketball corruption but is now being discontinued. Sunsetting the IARP was among several recommendations put forth by the NCAA’s Division I Transformation Committee earlier this year and recently adopted by the board.

As college sports moves toward less centralized governance by the NCAA and deregulation in general, the hope is to create a more streamlined enforcement process.

If justice is swift, the thinking goes, it is more likely to be applied fairly.

“The reality is the current system is broken,” said Atlantic Coast Conference Commissioner Jim Phillips, a member of the transformation committee. “I think everyone in the association, in the enterprise, understands it. When (an investigation) takes the amount of time that it does now and you start to penalize young men and women that were high school, if not middle school-age (when the violation occurred), it’s not an effective process.”

The IARP is still handling cases stemming from the FBI probe involving Louisville, Arizona, Kansas and LSU. Those have been in the NCAA enforcement pipeline for years. A related case against Oklahoma State did not go through IARP and the Cowboys did end up with a postseason ban.

David Ridpath, a professor at Ohio University and former compliance director for several schools, said even though the IARP failed, NCAA enforcement would be best handled by an independent organization.

“No system is perfect, but if you’re going to have an enforcement system at the end of the day you need to provide basic due-process protections and then you have to be able to consistently punish people,” he said.

In the Memphis case, Wiseman received $11,500 from Hardaway in 2017 while Hardaway was coach at a local high school. Hardaway was hired as Memphis’ coach in March 2018, and Wiseman committed to the Tigers in November 2018.

The NCAA accused Memphis of four Level I and two Level II violations, including lack of institutional control, head coach responsibility and failure to monitor. In the past, those types of allegations could strike fear into athletic directors but probation and fines seem much more likely to be the outcome now instead of the sweeping scholarship sanctions, vacated victories and postseason ban that Southern California received in 2010 for the Reggie Bush improper benefits case. Those penalties set USC football back years.

In the end, the IARP essentially reduced the charges against Memphis and cleared Hardaway of wrongdoing.

While the NCAA is losing sway in the wake of last year’s Supreme Court ruling, with more power being shifted to its member conferences, it also remains clear the schools still want the association to handle enforcement.

But what exactly is being enforced?

Athletes can now be paid for endorsement and sponsorship deals and college sports is still waiting on and hoping for help from federal lawmakers to regulate name, image and likeness compensation.

Plus, as revenue skyrockets for schools at the top of major college sports, the NCAA is trending toward fewer restrictions on what financial benefits can be provided to athletes.

“Until we have clarity and certainty on what schools and boosters and athletes can and can’t do, I think many recognize that it’s dangerous to hand down significant punishments when it’s not clear what you can and can’t do,” said Gabe Feldman, director of the sports law program at Tulane. “And I think unless you have clear rules, it’s hard to harsh punishment.”

Still, punishments directed at schools (fines) and coaches (suspensions) could become steeper and longer, Feldman said.

Potuto said with so much money flowing into the top of college athletics, it is doubtful fines could be large enough to be a true deterrent. While she understands the desire to not have current athletes pay for the sins of previous regimes, loosened transfer rules could mitigate the potential harm.

“I will make one prediction: If there is a move to impose penalties much less frequently in five years there is going to be a move to put them back in,” Potuto said.

Kentucky moves scrimmage to Eastern Kentucky for flood relief

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Kentucky will play its annual Blue-White men’s basketball scrimmage in Eastern Kentucky to benefit victims of the devastating summer floods.

The school announced that the Oct. 22 event at Appalachian Wireless Arena in Pikeville will feature a pregame Fan Fest. Ticket proceeds will go through Team Eastern Kentucky Flood Relief.

Wildcat players will also participate in a community service activity with local organizations in the relief effort.

Kentucky coach John Calipari said the team was excited to play for Eastern Kentucky fans and added, “We hope we can provide a temporary escape with basketball and community engagement.”

The scrimmage traditionally is held at Rupp Arena. It will occur eight days after its Big Blue Madness public workout at Rupp.

Kentucky’s Tionna Herron recovering from open-heart surgery

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Kentucky coach Kyra Elzy says freshman Tionna Herron is recovering from open-heart surgery to correct a structural abnormality.

The 6-foot-4 post player learned of her condition after arriving at school in June and received other opinions before surgery was recommended. Senior trainer Courtney Jones said in a release that Herron underwent surgery Aug. 24 at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston and is recovering at home in DeSoto, Texas.

Elzy said Herron “is the definition of a warrior” and all are grateful to be on the other side of the player’s surgery. Herron is expected back on campus early next month and will continue rehabilitation until she’s cleared to return to normal activity.

“Her will and determination to eventually return to the court is inspiring, and it’s that `game-on’ attitude that is what makes her such a perfect fit in our program,” Elzy said in a release. “We are so thrilled for Tionna’s return to our locker room; it’s not the same without our full team together.”

Herron committed to Kentucky during last fall’s early signing period, rated as a four-star prospect and a top-70 player in last year’s class. Kentucky won last year’s Southeastern Conference Tournament and reached the NCAA Tournament’s first round.

Emoni Bates charged with 2 felonies

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SUPERIOR TOWNSHIP, Mich — Emoni Bates, a former basketball prodigy who transferred to Eastern Michigan from Memphis, was charged with two felonies after police found a gun in a car during a traffic stop.

The 18-year-old Bates failed to stop at an intersection Sunday night and a search turned up the weapon, said Derrick Jackson, a spokesman for the Washtenaw County sheriff’s office.

Defense attorney Steve Haney told The Associated Press that the vehicle and the gun didn’t belong to Bates.

“I hope people can reserve judgment and understand there’s a presumption of innocence,” Haney said. “This was not his vehicle. This was not his gun. … We’re still gathering facts, too.”

Bates was charged with carrying a concealed weapon and altering identification marks on a firearm. He was released after his lawyer entered a not guilty plea. Bates’ next court hearing is Oct. 6.

“This is his first brush with the law,” Haney said in court. “He poses no threat or risk to society.”

Less than a month ago, the 6-foot-9 Bates transferred to Eastern Michigan to play for his hometown Eagles. Bates averaged nearly 10 points a game last season as a freshman at Memphis, where he enrolled after reclassifying to skip a year of high school and join the class of 2021.

“We are aware of a situation involving one of our student athletes,” EMU spokesman Greg Steiner said. “We are working to gather more details and will have further comment when more information is available.”

Bates was the first sophomore to win the Gatorade national player of the year award in high school basketball in 2020, beating out Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley. Detroit drafted Cunningham No. 1 overall last year, two spots before Cleveland took Mobley in the 2021 NBA draft.

Bates committed to playing for Tom Izzo at Michigan State two years ago, later de-committed and signed with Memphis. Bates played in 18 games for the Tigers, who finished 22-11 under Penny Hardaway. Bates missed much of the season with a back injury before appearing in Memphis’ two NCAA Tournament games.

In 2019, as a high school freshman, the slender and skilled guard led Ypsilanti Lincoln to a state title and was named Michigan’s Division 1 Player of the Year by The Associated Press. His sophomore season was cut short by the pandemic and he attended Ypsi Prep Academy as a junior, his final year of high school.

UConn to pay Kevin Ollie another $3.9 million over firing

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STORRS, Conn. — UConn announced Thursday it has agreed to pay former men’s basketball coach Kevin Ollie another $3.9 million to settle discrimination claims surrounding his 2018 firing.

The money is in addition to the more than $11.1 million in back salary Ollie has already been paid after an arbitrator ruled in January that he was improperly fired under the school’s agreement with its professor’s union.

“I am grateful that we were able to reach agreement,” Ollie said in a statement Thursday. “My time at UConn as a student-athlete and coach is something I will always cherish. I am pleased that this matter is now fully and finally resolved.”

Ollie, a former UConn point guard who guided the Huskies to a 127-79 record and the 2014 national championship in six seasons as head coach, was let go after two losing seasons. UConn also stopped paying him under his contract, citing numerous NCAA violations in terminating the deal.

In 2019, the NCAA placed UConn on probation for two years and Ollie was sanctioned individually for violations, which the NCAA found occurred between 2013 and 2018. Ollie’s attorneys, Jacques Parenteau and William Madsen, accused UConn of making false claims to the NCAA for the purpose of firing Ollie “with cause.”

The school had argued that Ollie’s transgressions were serious and that his individual contract superseded those union protections.

Ollie’s lawyers had argued that white coaches, including Hall-of-Famers Jim Calhoun and women’s coach Geno Auriemma, had also committed NCAA violations, without being fired, and indicated they were planning to file a federal civil rights lawsuit.

The school and Ollie said in a joint statement Thursday they were settling “to avoid further costly and protracted litigation.”

Both sides declined to comment further.

Ollie, who faced three years of restrictions from the NCAA on becoming a college basketball coach again, is currently coaching for Overtime Elite, a league that prepares top prospects who are not attending college for the pros.