Best Bets: Previewing Duke vs. North Carolina

2 Comments

No. 8 NORTH CAROLINA at No. 1 DUKE, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

  • VEGAS LINES: Duke (-9), 166
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: Duke 87.5, North Carolina: 78.5
  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Duke 90, UNC 79
  • TORVIK PROJECTION: Duke 93, UNC 82
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Duke 94, UNC 82

The first battle between the two biggest brands in the ACC will take place on Wednesday night, and it promises to be one of the most entertaining games of the season even if it’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels walking into Cameron Indoor Stadium and picking up a win.

Before we even think about getting into the matchups, let’s dive into the projections. KenPom, Torvik and Haslametrics all project Duke to win by double digits with totals somewhere between 169 and 176. The line opened at Duke (-9) with a total of 166, and while that may seem like a massive number to get to, what we have to keep in mind here is that both of these teams want to run, run, run.

North Carolina plays at the fifth-fastest tempo in the country, according to KenPom. Duke ranks 18th in pace. North Carolina plays with the third-shortest offensive possessions in college basketball. Duke ranks 11th in that category. North Carolina’s offense is entirely built around their primary break which leads into a secondary break, where the Tar Heels look for quick actions out of an offense that are dictated by what Coby White decides to do with the ball when he gets it over halfcourt. Duke’s pace numbers are so high because of how many live-ball turnovers they force and how often those turnovers lead to easy layups at the other end of the floor.

Long story short, I think the over here is the best bet, although I will be curious to see if and where the line moves. Part of me hopes that people will see that number, assume that there is no possible way that number can hit and bet it down.

In terms of what to do with the line, I still tend to lean Duke.

For starters, so much of the success North Carolina has had this season has come from Coby White being awesome. There really isn’t much analysis that needs to be done when a potential top 20 pick finds a rhythm and pops off for 25 points. That’s what he did in the win over Virginia Tech. It’s what he did to save UNC against Miami. He’s going to be asked to deal with the defense of Tre Jones, and while the legend Jones’ defensive ability has reached a level that I’m not sure even he can attain — ask Jay Bilas, and he’ll tell you Tre is the best on-ball defender since humans began walking upright — he is an absolute menace that has the ability to completely take an opposing point guard out of the game.

And White has been taken out of games before. He was dreadful in the 21 point loss to Louisville in January. In December, Ashton Hagans turned Coby White into Cobie Smulders (NOBODY ASKED YOU PATRICE!) as Kentucky beat UNC in Chicago.

Who wins that matchup will be pivotal.

What will be more interesting, however, is going to be how Roy Williams decides to line up.

It’s no secret that Williams wants to play two bigs as often as possible. That’s his bread and butter, it’s a style that has won him three national championships — including one just two years ago. What he does have worked over the course of a three decade Hall of Fame career, why wouldn’t he try to find a way to make it work with the roster that he has now.

The problem with that is that his most talented lineup this season does not feature two bigs. It features Luke Maye at the five with Nassir Little and Cam Johnson playing alongside him, and I bring that up because that is the lineup that I think UNC is going to have to play if they want any chance of hanging with this Duke team in Cameron.

Think about it this way: If Luke Maye is playing the four alongside Sterling Manley or Brandon Huffman or whoever, then Maye is going to be guarding one of Zion Williams, Cam Reddish or R.J. Barrett, and that would not be a good thing for Mr. Maye.

But if Maye is at the five, it means that Marques Bolden is going to have to chase him around the perimeter while Cam Johnson, Kenny Williams and Nassir Little get matched up with Duke’s Big Three.

(Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)

Little is an interesting case because there are multiple reasons he hasn’t been playing as much as you might expect. Part of it is that the skillset that makes him so attractive in the NBA — the versatility, the switchability, the fact that he can play the three or the four — just doesn’t work in a system that defines players as bigs or as wings. He’s not Justin Jackson and he’s not Kennedy Meeks, but he’s also not as well-rounded offensively as someone like Theo Pinson, so he’s like forcing a square peg in a round hole right now.

He also gets lost on the offensive end of the floor way too often for a kid that’s near the end of his freshman season, and he would be asked to slot into a position that he isn’t necessarily used to playing. But I don’t think that is what’s important here. What is going to matter is having someone that can get as close to matching Zion’s athleticism as possible, and that is Little. He may not have a clue, but his motor isn’t going to stop, and in a game like this, the athleticism and the effort are going to be two things that are really, really valuable.

PICKS: To me, the over is the clear bet. The way to beat Duke is to control tempo, to play a gapping defense that forces jumpers over the top and to keep them out of transition by fading the offensive glass. UNC wants to run more than Duke does, they pound the offensive glass harder than just about anyone — which means easy second chances when it works and easy runouts for Duke when it doesn’t — and they don’t have the horses to defend the way that a Louisville or a Virginia does.

But all signs here are also pointing me towards Duke (-9).

Wife, daughter of Wisconsin assistant Howard Moore killed in car accident

Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Leave a comment

The Wisconsin basketball program officially confirmed an awful piece of news on Sunday morning: Assistant coach Howard Moore was involved in a tragic accident early on Saturday morning that claimed the life of his wife, Jennifer, and daughter, Jaidyn.

Howard and his son, Jerell, were both injured in the accident but are expected to recover.

“There are no words to describe how devastated we are for Howard and his family,” head coach Greg Gard said in a statement. “Our basketball program is an extremely close family and we are all grieving for the Moore and Barnes families. Howard is so much more than a colleague and coach. He and Jen and their children are dear friends to everyone they meet. Their positivity and energy lift up those around them. We will miss Jen and Jaidyn dearly and we will put our arms around Howard and Jerell and the entire family, giving them love and support during this unspeakable time.”

According to Michigan state police, the Moore family was driving on a highway in Ann Arbor, Mich., at about 2 a.m. on Saturday morning when they were struck head-on by a car driven by a 23-year old woman going the wrong way on the highway. The woman driving the other car died at the scene.

“I’ve known Howard ever since he was a student-athlete at Wisconsin and gotten to know his wonderful family through the years,” director of athletics Barry Alvarez said. “He has always been an incredible representative of our athletic department and a positive influence on everyone around him. We are truly heart-broken for his family and will be doing everything possible to help him through this tragic time. Our prayers, love and support go out to the Moore and Barnes family.”

NCAA reverses ruling on Silvio De Sousa, clears him for 2019-20 season

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Silvio De Sousa’s appeal has been approved.

On Friday afternoon, the NCAA announced that they will be reversing their original decision, allowing the Kansas center to be eligible to play during the 2019-20 season. He was suspended for the entirety of the 2018-19 season.

“Kansas appealed the NCAA staff decision of a two-season withholding to the Division I Student-Athlete Reinstatement Committee, which determined additional relief was appropriate,” the NCAA said in a statement.

This decision came just hours after De Sousa’s final appeal formal appeal and not a moment too soon; Wednesday marks the final day that players that have declared for the NBA draft can withdraw and return to school. It is unlikely that De Sousa would get drafted should he be forced to leave his name in the draft.

The NCAA originally determined in February that De Sousa would have to sit out the remainder of the 2018-19 season and the entire 2019-20 season after allegations arose that his guardian, Fenny Falmagne, had accepted at least $20,000 in order to steer De Sousa to Kansas. These allegations arose as a result of the FBI’s investigation into corruption in college basketball.

De Sousa was a freshman during the 2017-18 season, averaging 4.0 points and 3.7 boards as Kansas made a run to the Final Four. He will join Udoka Azubuike and David McCormick in the Jayhawks oversized frontline.

NCAA president Mark Emmert made $2.9 million in 2017

Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Mark Emmert holds the top job of a major organization. It oversees thousands of people and generates billions in revenue. It’s not surprising the guy makes a lot of money.

It always just looks silly, though, as Emmert is the president of the NCAA, which does not allow its athletes compensation beyond the scholarships schools give them. So, we’ll take a minute to highlight that silliness here.

Emmert, who has led the NCAA since 2010, made $2.9 million in net compensation in 2017, USA TODAY reports after examining the organization’s tax filing.

The 66-year-old was credited with $3.9 million in total compensation, but $1 million of a deferred $1.4 million payment had been reported in prior years, according to USA TODAY.

Three other NCAA executives cleared $1 million in salary in 2017.

Again, given the scope, size and profitability of college sports, it’s not surprising that Emmert and his execs are well compensated, but it’s always worth pointing out that finances in college athletics – from administrative and coaching salaries to facilities to travel – are all inflated because athletes are prohibited from taking part in the profit-taking.

With news coming that athletes could be in line to profit off their name and likeness sometime in the near future and the NBA signaling the end of the one-and-done era, there is progress in player compensation, but during that time, there are a lot of checks getting cashed without players’ names on them.

Seven returning collegians among Team USA U19 invites

Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images
Leave a comment

USA Basketball is welcoming seven sophomores among its 34 total invitees to training camp next month ahead of the FIBA U19 World Cup in Greece.

Incoming freshmen and Class of 2020 will vie for 12 roster spots with Kansas State coach Bruce Weber helming the team and being assisted by Washington’s Mike Hopkins and North Carolina Central’s LaVelle Moton.

The returning college players garnering invites are Kessler Edwards (Pepperdine), Tyrse Haliburton (Iowa State), Kira Lewis (Alabama), Isaac Likekele (Oklahoma State), Trevion Williams (Purdue) and Bryce Willis (Stanford), along with Jayden Scrubb from the junior college ranks.

“The committee is excited at the level of talent that will be at training camp for the USA U19 World Cup team, and we expect to have a difficult decision trying to narrow down the group to 12 team members,” Matt Painter, Purdue coach and cahr of the junior national team committee, said in a statement.

R.J. Hampton, Samuell Williamson, Scottie Barnes and Jalen Suggs are some of the headliners from the group of players without college experience.

Sophomores

Kessler Edwards (Pepperdine/Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.)

Tyrese Haliburton (Iowa State/Oshkosh, Wis.)

Kira Lewis Jr. (Alabama/Meridianville, Ala.)

Isaac Likekele (Oklahoma State/Mansfield, Texas)

Jayden Scrubb (John A. Logan College/Louisville, Ky.)

Trevion Williams (Purdue/Chicago, Ill.)

Bryce Wills (Stanford/White Plains, N.Y.).

Incoming freshmen

Eric Dixon (Abington H.S./William Grove, Pa.)

Dajuan Gordon (Curie H.S./Chicago, Ill.)

R.J. Hampton (Little Elm H.S./Little Elm, Texas)

Justin Moore(DeMatha Catholic H.S./Accokeek, Md.)

Casey Morsell (St. John’s College H.S./Washington, D.C.)

Zeke Nnaji (Hopkins H.S./Hopkins, Minn.)

Isaac Okoro (McEachern H.S./Powder Springs, Ga.)

Onyeka Okongwu (Chino Hills H.S./Chino, Calif.)

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (IMG Academy, FL/Overland Park, Kan.)

Isaiah Stewart (La Lumiere School, IN/Rochester, N.Y.)

Anton Watson (Gonzaga Prep/Spokane, Wash.)

Mark Watts Jr. (SPIRE Institute/Pontiac, Mich.)

Romeo Weems (New Haven H.S./Chesterfield, Mich.)

Samuell Williamson (Rockwall H.S./Rockwall, Texas).

Class of 2020

Scottie Barnes (University School/West Palm Beach, Fla.)

Nimari Burnett (Prolific Prep, Calif./Chicago, Ill.)

Joshua Christopher (Mayfair H.S./Lakewood, Calif.)

Sharife Cooper (McEachern H.S./Powder Springs, Ga.)

Cade Cunningham (Montverde Academy, Fla./Arlington, Texas)

Hunter Dickinson (DeMatha Catholic H.S., Md./Alexandria, Va.)

Jalen Green(Prolific Prep/Fresno, Calif.)

Walker Kessler (Woodward Academy/Newnan, Ga.)

Caleb Love (Christian Brothers College H.S./St. Louis, Mo.)

Evan Mobley (Rancho Christian School/Temecula, Calif.)

Ethan Morton (Butler H.S./Butler, Pa.)

Jalen Suggs (Minnehaha Academy/Minneapolis, Minn.)

Ziaire Williams (Notre Dame H.S./Sherman Oaks, Calif.).

Notre Dame coach Mike Brey: Transferring players need ‘deterrent’

Rey Del Rio/Getty Images
3 Comments

WASHINGTON (AP) — The NCAA is granting too many waivers allowing players who transfer to compete immediately, Notre Dame coach Mike Brey said Wednesday, calling the requirement that players sit out a year a useful “deterrent” to players switching schools.

Brey made his comments at a meeting of the Knight Commission, a nonprofit that pushes for reform in college sports. While the commission has not taken a position on transfer waivers, it often advocates for players being given more freedom to pursue their professional ambitions.

“As coaches we’re concerned about the number of waivers, to the point where the NCAA has given too much of a blueprint on how to get a waiver,” Brey said. “Kids feel they can go and, you know, bring up enough of a case to get eligible right away. So they’re more apt to want to go.”

In April 2018, the NCAA relaxed its waiver requirements, allowing a transferring player to suit up immediately if there are “documented mitigating circumstances that are outside the student-athlete’s control and directly impact the health, safety and well-being of the student-athlete.”

During the 2018-19 academic year, 79 men’s basketball players requested waivers and 44 were granted, a 56% success rate, according to NCAA data. Men’s basketball accounted for 33% of all waiver requests, the NCAA said.

Commission co-chairman Arne Duncan, the former U.S. Secretary of Education, declined to comment on waivers but lauded the “transparency” of the NCAA’s transfer portal, in which players submit their names if they want to switch schools.

Brey said he believes players should be free to transfer and that it’s up to coaches to make their players want to stay, but he said sitting out a year can be beneficial and prevents players from transferring for immature or capricious reasons.

“It’s a bit of a deterrent for a kid. The year in residency saves kids from themselves sometimes,” Brey said. “I’ve seen some kids then come back, stick it out, and now they’re in the lineup and they come back five years later and go, ‘I was an idiot.’ Because every kid thinks about (transferring) when he’s not playing.”

ROADBLOCKS TO REFORM

Brey’s comments were one of a few examples from Wednesday’s meeting of the basketball establishment pushing back against reforms that would give players more autonomy or promote transparency about the way schools profit from college athletics.

The Knight Commission is pushing the NCAA to release to the public the financial details of contracts between athletic departments and shoe and apparel companies, a proposal that has not gained much traction. In the past, the commission has persuaded the NCAA to release graduation rates and other financial data, including compensation for coaches.

“The shoe companies, there has to be agreement across the board, that there has to be willingness and openness to share all those records. Candidly, I think more work needs to be done,” said Kevin Lennon, the NCAA’s vice president for Division I governance. “We don’t control all the third parties and their ability to cooperate with us. More conversation needs to continue to occur within the NCAA and between the NCAA and the third parties if we want to move the ball.”

Two NBA executives told the commission the league is in talks with the players’ union about lowering the NBA’s minimum age to 18, prompted largely by a recommendation by the Commission on College Basketball to rid the sport of the “one-and-done rule.”

But even that proposal is meeting some resistance in the NBA. David Krichavsky, the league’s senior vice president and head of youth basketball development, said some in the league would rather raise the age limit than lower it.

“Many teams and general managers would still be in favor of going to 20, given the additional scouting information you receive on players, seeing them compete at the NCAA level for two years after high school,” Krichavsky said, “but at the same time we recognize that the world has changed and will continue to change.”

COACHES BEHAVING BADLY

Brey, the president of the board of directors of the National Association of Basketball Coaches, said he’d like to see coaches reach a consensus about how to police their own behavior.

An ongoing federal investigation into illicit payments made to players during the recruiting process led Louisville to fire longtime coach Rick Pitino, but some other coaches implicated in the probe have held onto their jobs. Brey said schools ought to move more aggressively to fire coaches for cause when they violate NCAA rules.

“We all have clauses in our contracts about NCAA rules and behavior, all of us. If those are violated, doesn’t that start on the campuses?” Brey said. “And no question the NABC could make a stronger stand. We have not maybe been as vocal about some of the things that have gone on.”