The last NBC Sports bracket projection can be found here.
It looked like TCU (NET: 41, SOS: 31) had played themselves off the bubble.
The Horned Frogs had just gone into Iowa State and smacked around a really good Cyclones team, a performance that vaulted them up into the 8-9 games in most projections, if not higher.
But here’s the problem: Not only was that win the only Q1 win that TCU has on their resume, it is also the last win that they landed. On Monday night, TCU — playing without Kouat Noi for the second straight game and for the third time in league play, three losses — went into Oklahoma State (91) and lost. It’s TCU’s worst loss of the year, and while it’s only a Q2 loss, it is their only loss of the season to a team outside of the top 40 in the NET.
That’s relevant because TCU’s resume is more or less built on the the idea that they have a few good wins without losing to a team that isn’t headed for the NCAA tournament.
Things are going to get dicey now. As of today, the Horned Frogs are 17-9 on the season and 5-8 in Big 12 play. They are 1-6 in Q1 games and 6-3 against Q2 opponents, but this is the kicker: They have a rough schedule over the final three weeks of the season: Iowa State (13), at West Virginia (118), Texas Tech (10), Kansas State (29), at Texas (35). I’d say they have to win at least two of those games, but a 2-3 finish to the regular season would leave them sitting at 7-11 in conference play. That’s not something the committee is supposed to factors in, but it would be a fact that is very hard to ignore.
Missing Noi is the x-factor. He’s their second-leading scorer and rebounder, and TCU is 14-6 in games that he plays. How much will that be taken into consideration when the committee looks at TCU’s profile?
The truth, regardless of who is in the lineup, is that Jamie Dixon needs to turn things around and do it quickly.