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Bubble Banter: What is going on with Indiana?

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January has nearly come to a close, which means that it is officially time for Bubble Banter to make its glorious return. 

Some quick housekeeping before we dive into it:

  • This page will be updated throughout the weekend, so be sure to check back on Friday, Saturday and Sunday as the games get played. 
  • I’ll update them best that I can, but the NET rankings will be accurate through Friday morning. 
  • If you see something I missed, if you have an issue with a team I left out or if you want to congratulate me on a job well done, drop a comment below or hit me up here: @RobDauster.
  • The cut-off we will be using this year for teams that are “on the bubble” is the No. 9 seed line. If your favorite team is seeded as a No. 9 or better in our most recent bracket, they will not be discussed below.
  • On Thursday, our Dave Ommen released an updated bracket, and these eight teams were placed in an 8-9 game: NEBRASKA, AUBURN, SYRACUSE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, ST. JOHN’S, TCU, WASHINGTON and CINCINNATI
  • Onto the weekend’s action.

WINNERS

CREIGHTON (NET: 61, SOS: 10): The Bluejays have a weird resume. They’re 11-8 on the season, but they don’t have a single bad loss on the season. Seven of their eight losses are to Q1 opponents, and their only Q2 loss came at home against Ohio State, which was a Q1 loss before the Buckeyes recent losing streak. The problem? Creighton doesn’t have any good wins. They beat Butler at home, Clemson on a neutral and Providence on the road. The latter is their only Q1 win, and who knows how long that lasts — the Friars are currently 73rd in the NET, and that becomes a Q2 win if they fall outside the top 75. The other issue is Creighton already lost to both Villanova and Marquette at home, meaning there are no chances for them to get Q1 wins at home the rest of the season. How costly does this blown call look now?

OHIO STATE (NET: 45, SOS: 41): The Buckeyes entered Saturday as one of the teams right on the edge of the bubble’s cut-line thanks to a five-game losing streak, and they did as much as anyone to change their fortunes as anyone — winning at Nebraska. That’s a top 25 road win for the Buckeyes to go along with wins at Cincinnati and at Creighton. The loss at Rutgers is ugly, but as long as the Scarlet Knights remain somewhat respectable, that will be a Q2 loss, more or less equivalent to losing to Syracuse at home.

BAYLOR (NET: 50, SOS: 70): The Bears won their fourth straight on Saturday, knocking off Alabama at home. The Bears have some nice wins on the season — Texas Tech and Iowa State at home and Arizona in Tucson are all Q1 wins — but they are going to have their work cur out for them making the committee forget about home losses to Texas Southern (215) and Stephen F. Austin (270). The added bonus here is that Alabama is one of the teams that Baylor will be going up against for a bid, and this win keeps the Tide for picking up a Q1, non-conference road win.

VCU (NET: 59, SOS: 31): The Rams picked up a win at Duquesne on Saturday which is going to be great for their chase of the Atlantic 10 regular season title, but it doesn’t help their NCAA tournament profile all that much — it’s a Q3 win. VCU’s win at Texas should hold up as a Q1 win come Selection Sunday, but given how weak the Atlantic 10 is, it’s hard to see how they can end up building on their resume too much. Frankly, I’m not sure they can withstand another loss and keep pace with the bubble teams in the Big 12, the Big Ten or the ACC.

HOFSTRA (NET: 47, SOS: 233): Not only does Hofstra lack any Q1 or Q2 wins, they have not even beaten a team that cracks the top 100 in NET. They are 18-3, they have now won 15 straight games against Division I opponents and Justin Wright-Foreman deserves a chance to play on a bigger stage, but I don’t know how they are going to build a profile good enough to get an at-large bid in the CAA.

WOFFORD (NET: 32, SOS: 106): The Terriers improved to 14-4 on the season with their ninth-straight win on Saturday. Wofford actually does have a couple solid wins to their name — they won at UNC Greensboro, they beat Furman and they knocked off South Carolina on the road by 20 points — and probably have the best argument to be an at-large of all the mid-major teams on this list. To make that a reality, they will probably need to win out, but unlike other mid-major leagues, losses at East Tennessee State (79), at Furman (62) or against UNCG (53) won’t be season-enders.

BELMONT (NET: 77, SOS: 125): The Bruins landed a couple of really nice wins this week, adding a second Q1 win to their resume by beating Murray State on the road and following that up with a win at Austin Peay, their third Q2 win. The big issue for Belmont at this point is that they have three losses to Q3 opponents — Jacksonville State twice and at Green Bay. It’s going to be tough to get an at-large, but it’s not an impossibility, especially if UCLA finds a way to become a top 75 team.

MURRAY STATE (NET: 44, SOS: 289): The Racers caught a bad break this week when their star point guard, Ja Morant, sprained his ankle early in their home loss to Belmont. As weird as it sounds, that Belmont team is Murray’s worst loss of the season and a Q3 loss. The biggest issue with this resume is that they are going to end the season having played just two Q1 games — losses at Auburn and at Alabama — and no Q2 games. Their best win is at Southern Illinois, who is 152nd in the NET.

MINNESOTA (NET: 58, SOS: 63): The Gophers picked up a nice Q1 win on Sunday, picking off Iowa in The Barn to move to 15-5 on the season. They are now 4-3 in Q1 games with a win at Wisconsin. There are a pair of Q2 losses on Minnesota’s resume — at Illinois and at Boston College — but this is a tournament worthy profile as of today.

LIPSCOMB (NET: 41, SOS: 180): Lipscomb beat one of the worst teams in Division I on Sunday, taking down Stetson. So that’s a good thing. Even better, however, is just how much carnage there was on the bubble this weekend. San Francisco, Texas, Fresno State, Nebraska, Arizona, Pitt, Florida, Butler, Seton Hall, UCF, Temple — all of these teams taking on water is good for the the mid-majors that are in mix, especially one like Lipscomb, who has won at TCU and at SMU with just four losses, the worst of which is a Q2 loss to Belmont at home.

LOSERS

INDIANA (NET: 36, SOS: 31): Indiana lost their sixth straight game on Friday night, getting blown out by No. 5 Michigan in Assembly Hall. In a vacuum, the Hoosiers are not in a terrible spot just yet. They have four Q1 wins to their name — Marquette, Louisville, Butler (neutral), at Penn State — and all eight of their losses are Q1 games. They still have seven Q1 games left on their schedule. There will be plenty of chances for them to get the good wins they need to stay on the right side of the bubble, and given the strength of the Big Ten, 8-12 might actually be good enough to get them in.

The more interesting question seems to be the Hoosiers themselves, and I’m going to use this space to give you my take on the situation: Beating Marquette the way that he did (96-73) was the worst thing that could have happened to Archie Miller this season because, when combined when Romeo-mania coming into the program, it set expectations much higher than they should have been. The truth is that this is a team that starts two freshmen and two sophomores alongside Juwan Morgan. One of those freshmen is Indiana’s starting point guard, and he wasn’t a top 100 prospect. They are shooting 25 percent from three in Big Ten play and are 13-for-75 from three the last four games.

The truth is that this team is and always was going to be closer to what they’ve been the last month than what they were against Marquette.

And frankly, it’s not quite disaster territory just yet. Those six losses were: at Michigan, at Maryland, Nebraska, at Purdue, at Northwestern, Michigan.

That’s brutal for anyone, let alone a young team that has totally and completely lost any semblance of confidence they had in November.

Yes, Indiana lacks leadership. Yes, Romeo has looked like a freshman far too often. No, Archie Miller has not done a good job with this team. But can we stop pretending like this is the 2008 team going into the tank? Indiana wasn’t ranked in the preseason top 25 for a reason, and you’re seeing it now.

BUTLER (NET: 52, SOS: 24): Butler missed on a chance to land a Q1 on Friday night, falling 75-61 at Creighton. This comes on the heels of whiffing on their shot at Villanova in Hinkle on Tuesday night. As of today, the Bulldogs are 1-6 against Q1 — their win over Ole Miss fell to Q2 with the Rebels dropping outside the top 30 in the NET — with a 12-9 record and a pair of Q3 losses. They’re comfortably on the wrong side of the bubble today.

FLORIDA (NET: 37, SOS: 44): The Gators fell to 11-8 on the season on Saturday after they lost at TCU, 55-50, in another uninspiring performance offensively. The metrics love the Gators — they’ve played a lot of good teams close and have an elite defense — but that hasn’t amounted to many wins. They won at Arkansas — a Q1 win so long as Arkansas doesn’t drop from 70 to outside the top 75 in NET — and they beat Butler at home, but that doesn’t totally make up for the loss to South Carolina in Gainesville.

ALABAMA (NET: 43, SOS: 21): Losing at Baylor was a missed opportunity, but the Tide aren’t in a terrible spot yet. That win over Kentucky is going to continue to look better and better, and they still have six Q1 games left on their schedule as of today. They’ll need to win half of those, however, because three Q3 losses to Northeastern, Texas A&M and Georgia State — the latter two at home — are less than ideal.

PITT (NET: 60, SOS: 57): After a great start to ACC play, the Panthers lost their third straight game on Saturday, falling at Louisville at they led at the half. Jeff Capel has Pitt in a good spot as of today. They’ve beaten Louisville and Florida State and have just one bad loss to their name, but that bad loss is an awful loss — Niagara (301) at home. They’ll get chances, and they’ll need to take advantage of those chances.

TEXAS (NET: 41, SOS: 2): The Longhorns are benefitting from the fact that they have played the second-toughest schedule in college basketball. They’ve already amassed eight Q1 games with four wins, including North Carolina on a neutral, Purdue at home and Kansas State on the road. They do have four Q2 losses — as well as a Q3 loss to Radford at home — but losing at Georgia is hardly a backbreaker, not when they still play at least seven Q1 games during the regular season.

SAINT LOUIS (NET: 75, SOS: 122): The Billikens missed on a terrific chance to land one of the rare Q2 wins they are going to be able to pick up in Atlantic 10 play in excruciating fashion: Jordan Goodwin was fouled with 0.4 seconds left and Saint Louis down one, and he missed them both. The Billlikens have wins over Butler and Oregon State at home as well as a win at Seton Hall, but with two Q3 losses to their name, that’s probably not going to be enough.

ARIZONA STATE (NET: 63, SOS: 56): The Pac-12’s dreams of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament took another hit on Saturday, as Arizona State lost at USC on Saturday night. The Sun Devils do have some good wins — Kansas, Mississippi State are all Q1 wins — and they have four Q2 wins as well, but the Sun Devils lost to Utah and Princeton at home. It doesn’t help matters that the only chance for Q1 wins the rest of the season will be in their last three games: at Oregon, at Oregon State and at Arizona.

ARIZONA (NET: 64, SOS: 73): Saturday was not a good day for the Wildcats, either. They went into Pauley Pavilion and got dropped by UCLA, meaning that they were swept by the LA schooled and have now lost three of their last four games. Their win over Iowa State is going to carry some weight in March, that’s the only Q1 win for Arizona, who only has three more chances to land Q1 wins the rest of the year, and all three of those chances will come on the road against teams outside the top 60 in NET.

FRESNO STATE (NET: 65, SOS: 149): Fresno State suffered their worst loss of the season on Saturday, falling at Colorado State (228). That’s their third Q3 loss of the year, and with no Q2 wins and just a pair of Q1 wins (at Utah State, Northwestern), their chances of earning an at-large big probably hinge on whether or not they can win at Nevada in February.

SAN FRANCISCO (NET: 40, SOS: 178): The Dons suffered a loss at San Diego on Saturday night, which actually isn’t as bad as it sounds — San Diego (107) on the road is a Q2 game. That’s excusable. The problem is that the Dons need every good win that they can get. They are 0-2 in Q1 games and just 1-1 against Q2.

TEMPLE (NET: 56, SOS: 40): The only reason that Temple is currently in the discussion for an at-large bid is that they managed to beat Houston (8) at home. That’s a big win. Beyond that, the Owls are 0-3 against Q1 opponents, they’ve already lost at UCF and against Cincinnati at home and also have a Q3 loss to Penn at home. The biggest game of their season comes on Thursday when they play at Houston.

SETON HALL (NET: 56, SOS: 23): The Hall’s losing streak extended to four on Sunday after they were absolutely pummeled by Villanova in Philly. The Wildcats won by 28 points just eight days after Seton Hall lost at home to DePaul. A win over Kentucky on a neutral and at Maryland will look very god on Selection Sunday, but a pair of Q3 home losses is a lot to overcome. The good news: Seton Hall still gets shots at Marquette and Villanova at home.

UCF (NET: 34, SOS: 107): The Knights lost by 20 on Sunday at Memphis, which, to date, is the only Q1 game that UCF has played. They are 3-2 in Q2 games and also took on a loss at home against Florida Atlantic (175), a Q4 loss. With two games left against both Houston and Cincinnati plus a trip to Temple, there are five Q1 games left on their schedule. They’ll need them.

Mid-Majors that will crash the dance in March

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It’s always fun to root for the little guy.

When March Madness rolls around next spring, there will be a number of conferences with one bid to cheer for against bigger, power conference opponents. What makes this year’s mid-major crop particularly intriguing is the number of returning NCAA tournament teams who have almost full teams coming back.

In an era where smaller schools are getting hit harder with transfers each offseason, seeing NCAA tournament teams like Liberty, Vermont, New Mexico State, Colgate and North Dakota State stay together should be a fun storyline to follow as they are some of a handful of mid-major teams to keep tabs on this season.

A programming note: We did not include schools from the Atlantic 10 or the Mountain West while Saint Mary’s and BYU were left off the list as well. It’s not that those programs aren’t good or worth talking about, but at this point I think we all know schools like VCU and Utah State are going to be pretty good. 



LIBERTY (Atlantic Sun)

Making the Round of 32 and knocking out Mississippi State last season, Liberty has another chance to do damage in the NCAA tournament with four returning starters. Two fifth-year seniors have a chance to earn Atlantic Sun Player of the Year honors as wing Caleb Homesley and forward Scottie James are standout players. Homesley lit up the Bulldogs for 30 in the first-round NCAA upset while James is a three-year starter and double-double threat. Senior guard Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz and junior guard Elijah Cuffee both started every game and logged heavy minutes for a 29-win team last season as the Flames have a ton of returning talent and experience. With six neutral site games and road games at Vanderbilt and LSU, Liberty will also test themselves in non-conference play.

VERMONT (America East)

Putting a scare into Florida State in the first round last season, Vermont could easily win multiple games in the NCAA tournament with many key players returning. Once America East Player of the Year Anthony Lamb pulled his name out of the NBA Draft the senior became the league’s best returning player. The last three years, the Catamounts are a ridiculous 45-3 in the America East with 83 overall wins. This could be the season they finally break through. Lamb will have significant help on the interior with grad transfer big man Daniel Giddens. The former four-star recruit spent time at Ohio State and Alabama and adds instant experience and credibility inside that the Catamounts lacked.

Junior Stef Smith is another returning double-figure scorer to keep tabs on, and, of course, there are two more Duncans still at Vermont after Ernie Duncan moved on from a prolific four-year career. Robin Duncan was an All-Rookie Team selection in the conference while Everett Duncan is a noted floor spacer with some starts in his career. Vermont has early road tests at St. Bonaventure, St. John’s, Virginia, Yale and Cincinnati.

NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

Before Auburn made a surprising Final Four run last season they were nearly ousted by the Aggies in the first round in a one-point game. Although New Mexico State loses experienced rebounding ace Eli Chuha from that group, they return 10 of their 13 rotation players — including eight seniors. A deep and balanced team coming off of a 30-win season, New Mexico State has continued to dominate the WAC under head coach Chris Jans. Terrell Brown and AJ Harris are the top scorers to return as they form a great backcourt along with productive forward Ivan Aurrecoechea and WAC Tournament MVP Trevelin Queen. With a top 40 offense on KenPom, this group gets it done a number of different ways on offense while wearing you down with the deepest rotation in the country (per KenPom) last season.

HARVARD (Ivy)

The Ivy League’s most experienced team combines the conference’s top recruiting class to form a very dangerous team. The Crimson have two Ivy Player of the Year candidates in point guard Bryce Aiken and forward Seth Towns — who missed all of last season due to injury. Aiken is capable of scoring outbursts on any night while having Towns back will be huge for Harvard’s frontcourt. Even without Towns playing last season, Harvard managed an NIT appearance and win over Georgetown. Now, all five starters from last season, Towns and a recruiting class led by four-star forward Chris Ledlum have their sights set on an Ivy title and possibly more. Head coach Tommy Amaker has had plenty of talented teams at Harvard but this group will have some of the highest expectations in recent years.

COLGATE (Patriot)

For only the third time in program history, Colgate made the NCAA tournament last season. Expectations are sky high this season after the Raiders gave Tennessee a solid game in the first round with four starters coming back. Patriot League Player of the Year Rapolas Ivanauskas returns as the solid-shooting forward is skilled and capable of big games. Dynamic point guard Jordan Burns is also back as he can get hot from the perimeter while also being a very good distributor. Senior forward Will Rayman also returns along with reigning Patriot Rookie of the Year Tucker Richardson at guard. The Raiders have star power from multiple spots and veteran shot makers at multiple positions. If Colgate plugs its hole from center and finds some bench pop they could roll through the Patriot once again.

WESTERN KENTUCKY (Conference USA)

Rick Stansbury could finally have the talent to take Western Kentucky back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013. With the return of potential All-American big man Charles Bassey, the Hilltoppers have four starters back as Taveion Hollingsworth, Josh Anderson and Jared Savage are three double-figure scorers around Bassey. Perimeter shooting, a major weakness for Western Kentucky a season ago, should also be improved with the addition of IUPUI transfer Camron Justice. Replacing Lamonte Bearden at point guard will be key to the Hilltoppers’ ceiling. If Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is cleared right away by the NCAA then he’d help a ton while talented four-star freshman Jordan Rawls could also be called on. After falling in the Conference USA Tournament title game in back-to-back seasons, this could be the Western Kentucky team that makes a run.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)

Winning a First Four battle against NC Central before losing to Duke in the NCAA tournament, the Bison return all five starters and most of a deep rotation from a 19-win team. A team that is designed to space the floor at multiple spots and limit turnovers, North Dakota State doesn’t have any individual star but they should be one of the deepest mid-major teams in the country. Senior guards Vinnie Shahid and Tyson Ward are the team’s leading scorers while vital role players return throughout the roster. As long as the Bison are knocking down three-pointers and improve on their No. 292 KenPom defense from last season and they’ll be in good position to make it back to the Dance.

EAST TENNESSEE STATE (SoCon)

Coming off of a 24-win campaign, the Bucs have six key players coming back as the return of double-double forward Jeromy Rodriguez was huge. A program that has averaged 25 wins per season in four years under head coach Steve Forbes, East Tennessee State has two very strong shooters in elite bench scorer Tray Boyd III and junior guard Patrick Good. All-conference guard Bo Hodges is also back for the Bucs along with emerging sophomore guard Daivien Williamson. For a program that is consistently competing for the the postseason, this could be the most talented team Forbes has had during his time with the Bucs.

BUFFALO (MAC)

Head coach Nate Oats (Alabama) and five seniors moved on from the Bulls but there is still plenty of talent back for a program looking to make the NCAA tournament for the fifth time in six seasons. Veteran coach Jim Whitesell takes over after four years as an Oats assistant. The former Loyola coach has returning talent at his disposal. Two starting guards return in junior Jayvon Graves and senior Davonta Jordan as they form a strong defensive backcourt who should score more. Sophomores Jeenathan Williams and Ronaldo Segu are also expected to contribute more with Williams being a potential breakout star. Transfers will also help as wing Gabe Grant (Houston) and guard Antwain Johnson (Middle Tennessee) are both eligible after sitting out last season. New pieces have to fit together under a new coach but Oats didn’t leave the roster bare when he left for the SEC. There is still plenty of talent for Buffalo to have another strong season.

BRADLEY (MVC)

Surprisingly winning the Missouri Valley tournament and giving Final Four team Michigan State a tough first-round matchup, the Braves return their three top scorers. Senior guard and first-team All-Valley guard Darrell Brown has nearly 100 starts under his belt as he’s a tough-minded two-way leader. Junior forward Elijah Childs, a third-team all-conference player, also showed flurries of elite play in becoming one of the league’s most improved players last season. And senior sharpshooter Nate Kennel can knock down shots from nearly anywhere on the floor. The Braves lose three vital senior glue guys but figure to replace those minutes with emerging sophomore Ja’Shon Henry and two bigs in Koch Bar and Ari Boya. LSU transfer guard Danya Kingsby is also a potential perimeter option to run alongside Brown.

Bulked up, Jack Nunge aims to bolster Iowa after redshirting

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IOWA CITY, Iowa — In an era when many college basketball players want to speed up their careers in hopes of going pro, Iowa’s Jack Nunge took an unusual step back last season.

The sophomore redshirted for the Hawkeyes, and they hope that will help him blossom into an impact post player this winter.

The 6-foot-11 Nunge, who started 14 games as a freshman in 2017-18, took the next season off partly because Iowa wanted to balance out its frontcourt depth for the next few seasons and partly so he could bulk up. Nunge’s work behind the scenes — along with the expected loss of star forward Tyler Cook to the NBA — should put him in position to compete for significant minutes this season.

Iowa (23-12 in 2018-19), which is coming off its fourth NCAA tournament appearance in six seasons, opens on Nov. 8 against Southern Illinois-Edwardsville.

“I just thought it was the best decision for me, my skill development and to get to, ultimately, where I want to be,” Nunge said Wednesday during the team’s annual media day. “I got a lot stronger. I got to work on my game a lot.”

Nunge undoubtedly could have helped the Hawkeyes a season ago. He and the coaching staff instead bet that Nunge — one of a staggering seven forwards on Iowa’s roster in 2018-19 — would best help the program moving forward by redshirting.

Nunge had a promising freshman season, ranking second on the team with 25 blocked shots, fourth with 21 steals and fifth with 5.7 points a game. He said he has put on between 10-15 pounds since last playing.

“Physically, he is in a completely different place, especially as it relates to his ability to do things in the post,” Iowa coach Fran McCaffery said. “He was always a good post player, but he was on the thin side. He’s not on the thin side anymore. He’s finishing plays. Defensively, he’s always had tremendous defensive instincts, so now you have a bigger body to combat talented players in this league.”

How the Hawkeyes use Nunge in nonconference play will be one of their more interesting story lines ahead of Big Ten play.

Nunge is now listed at 245 pounds, but he also has a surprisingly strong shot for a guy his size, shooting 40% on 3s and 80% from the line in earning Mr. Basketball finalist honors as a prep senior in Indiana.

Those numbers dipped to 33.3% from beyond the arc and 75.5% from the line as a college freshman, but Nunge’s potential as a big man who can stretch the floor and create space for All-Big Ten honorable mention Luka Garza, emerging scorer Joe Wieskamp and others remains intriguing.

“Being a mismatch guy,” Nunge said when asked about his role. “Taking somebody who may not be as good on defense on the outside, or posting up a smaller guy down below.”

Nunge won’t be guaranteed a starting spot, with Ryan Kriener and Cordell Pemsl also competing for frontcourt minutes. Nunge might have an inside track at playing alongside Garza quite a bit at power forward.

“He’s a great shooter. Tremendous shooter. Really stretches the floor well,” Garza said. “He’s really comfortable on the block now as opposed to earlier in his career.”

Oregon freshman Dante ruled ineligible

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Oregon’s freshman N’Faly Dante will be ineligible to play until at least Dec. 14th.

The five-star freshman released a statement to Shams Charania of Stadium on Tuesday morning indicating that he will will not be allowed to play during the first six weeks of the season.

“On December 14, 2019, I plan to enroll and play college basketball with the University of Oregon,” Dante’s statement read. “I have completed my academic requirements and am currently waiting for the NCAA eligibility process to finalize.

“Every prospective student athletes that purchases an NCAA Eligibility Center ID, regardless of their gender or origin, should be entitled to a timely and transparent process that’s in line with the student’s targeted enrollment date.”

Dante is one of eight newcomers to the Oregon program this season. The Ducks are a preseason top 25 team, currently sitting 12th in the NBC Sports Top 25. Dante is their highest-rated freshmen, but with UNLV grad transfer Shakur Juiston in Eugene, Dante was not necessarily going to be a starter from day one.

Big 12 Preview Podcast: Kings stay King in … Kansas?

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Rob Dauster was joined this week by Travis Hines to talk through each and every team in the Big 12. Can Kansas start a new streak? Is everything happening around the program going to be too much for them to overcome? Just how good is Texas Tech? Can Baylor make a run at the league title? Where does Kansas State drop off to? Why is Texas so interesting this year?

Here is the full rundown or the league:

Baylor: 4:20

Iowa State: 10:15

Kansas: 18:51

Kansas State: 31:19

TCU: 37:05

Oklahoma State: 42:40

Oklahoma: 47:00

Texas: 53:15

Texas Tech: 1:05:30

West Virginia: 1:12:35

Big 12 Season Preview: Power Rankings, Preseason Awards and a return to glory for the Kansas Jayhawks

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Beginning in September and running up until November 6th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2019-20 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

Today, we are previewing the Big 12 Conference.



It finally happened.

For the first time since President George W. Bush’s first term, Kansas did not win the Big 12 regular season title.

It was a remarkable run of 14 years, but it came to an end thanks to a roster that just wasn’t up to the task after an injury to Udoka Azubuike when combined with the ascendancy of Texas Tech and Kansas State. Those Red Raiders now look to be potentially a perennial threat to the Jayhawks after Chris Beard got them to within seconds of a national championship last April despite roster losses from the previous year that looked too large to overcome.

Despite last year’s results, Kansas is again the heavy favorite heading into this season after retooling the roster. Other 2019 contenders suffered major losses, but there is enough talent and experience across the league to think the Jayhawks will have to truly earn the start of a second streak.

FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. KANSAS REMAINS KING

The Jayhawks’ 14-year streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 title came to an end last spring, but don’t get it twisted. The Jayhawks remain the class of this conference. They struck gold with Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson electing to return alongside Silvio De Sousa, whose impermissible benefits suspension was reduced by the NCAA to make him eligible this season. Other contributors return while Iowa sharpshooter Isaiah Moss grad-transferred in. Kansas is not only the Big 12 favorite, but a leading national title contender.

Of course, the on-court exploits is just half the story this year for Kansas. The NCAA leveled an aggressive notice of allegations on the program stemming from the FBI’s investigation into the sport, and the Jayhawks, along with Bill Self, will be facing plenty of questions – and perhaps developments from – the situation all year. There may not be, however, a program more adept at successfully dealing with controversy than Kansas.

Unless it involves Snoop Dogg. Then they’re not great at it. So just avoid Snoop for the foreseeable future, fellas.

2. TEXAS TECH ISN’T GOING ANYWHERE

We all came to appreciate just how great Texas Tech was last year, but it’s worth revisiting how they got there. Remember back to the spring of 2018. That’s when Chris Beard and Keenan Evans being a badass and Zhaire Smith turning into a top-20 NBA draft pick as the Red Raiders made the Elite Eight. Those two then left, along with Zach Smith and Justin Gray. Those are massive losses to endure, and, yet, somehow, Texas Tech got even better. Seconds away from a national title better. Pretty insane.

So despite another spring of heavy losses, including top-10 pick Jarrett Culver, the prevailing wisdom is not only will Beard’s team be a Big 12 contender again, they’re a preseason top-10 team. Doubt them at your own peril after what they pulled off last year. Graduate transfers Chris Clarke and TJ Holyfield are probably going to be the keys to how far Texas Tech can go in replicating last year’s success.

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3. BAYLOR IS A TITLE CONTENDER

Scott Drew really has done an amazing job in Waco. It’s been fascinating to watch his career progression, from being the butt of national jokes to now being nationally recognized for being a legitimately skilled coach. The Bears used to be a team that would load up on huge talent, but have been a grittier group as of late.

Now it seems like Drew has a nice mixture of both, even if it doesn’t feature the NBA draft lottery talent of yesteryear. Tristan Clark returns after a knee injury cost him the second half of last season after he had been on a tear. Much of the nucleus from last year’s team also returns while transfers MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell are also going to contribute.

The Bears are going to be good.

4. THE BEST NBA PROSPECT IN THE LEAGUE LIVES IN AMES

Iowa State was the Big 12’s most talented team last year, and it saw two players (Talen Horton-Tucker and Marial Shayok) go in the second round of the NBA draft and a third (Lindell Wigginton) land an Exhibit 10 contract. The Cyclones’ best NBA prospect, however, returned to school for his sophomore season without so much as even testing the NBA waters.

Tyrese Haliburton is the envy of plenty NBA decision makers as a lengthy 6-foot-5 guard with high shooting percentages and an even higher basketball IQ. He was relegated to a supporting role last year on a loaded Cyclone roster, but he’ll take on a huge amount of responsibility this season. If he can show that he can shoulder it – and more of a scoring load – he could find himself in the lottery conversation.

5. TEXAS IS NOTHING IF NOT INTERESTING

I think there’s only one of two ways this goes for Texas this season. Either the Longhorns are really good, and Shaka Smart is lauded for finally having his breakthrough season in Austin despite not having the lottery picks he’s had in the past, or the Longhorns aren’t great and the only discussion anyone wants to have about them is regarding Smart’s job security.

If Texas is so-so or even just merely good, that’s probably not enough to quell the questions given the level of expectations – and piles of cash – that were heaped on Smart when he arrived from VCU. So, either win big or face a lot of questions. Either way, it’ll interesting to track from the outside.

(David Purdy/Getty Images)

PRESEASON BIG 12 PLAYER OF THE YEAR: UDOKA AZUBUIKE, Kansas

This will be the fourth season on campus for the 7-foot-1, 270-pound, but we’ve only seen one healthy season from him. That year was pretty dang impressive, though, as Azubuike averaged 13 points, seven rebounds and 1.7 blocks while shooting 77 percent from the floor (insert eye and flame emoji here). He missed most of last season with a bum wrist, but eschewed going pro to return to Lawrence, where he’s likely a preseason All-American. He’s a old-school, back-to-the-basket big, which while out of vogue, is incredible difficult to stop when it comes in such a large and skilled package like Azubuike. He’s a singular force in the league – and maybe the country.

THE REST OF THE BIG 12 FIRST TEAM

  • TYRESE HALIBURTON, Iowa State: An NBA draftnik darling, Haliburton had a strong freshman season, but will step into a much bigger role as a sophomore.
  • DEREK CULVER, West Virginia: West Virginia won’t have a ton of talent this year, but Culver is the exception.
  • DEVON DOTSON, Kansas: After a bumpy start, Dotson blossomed late last season and should be even better this season.
  • CHRIS CLARKE, Texas Tech: Clarke put up nice numbers at Virginia Tech, but this is a bet that Chris Beard can wring even more out of him.

FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW

  • DESMOND BANE, TCU
  • OSCAR TSHIEBWE, West Virginia
  • TRISTAN CLARK, Baylor
  • DAVIDE MORETTI, Texas Tech
  • BRADY MANEK, Oklahoma

BREAKOUT STAR: Lindy Waters, Oklahoma State

At 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds with athleticism and a pure jumper, Lindy Waters is the type of player coaches across the country covet. He’s steadily improved all three years he’s been in Stillwater, and now looks poised to potentially be the type of star that could propel Oklahoma State into the surprise team in the league. A double-digit scorer with length that shot 45 percent from 3-point range last year, Waters has a lot of tools to be great.

COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Shaka Smart, Texas

After years of turning down big jobs, Shaka Smart finally left VCU in 2015 to take one of the plummest jobs in the country. Texas has big money and a big brand, but modest expectations. Smart’s arrival was supposed to awaken the Longhorns after years of malaise under Rick Barnes. Instead, Barnes has made Tennessee a national contender while Smart and Texas have languished in mediocrity. It, simply, just hasn’t worked out very well.

That’s not to say it’s been a catastrophe – it hasn’t been – but two NCAA tournament appearances, zero tournament wins and one last-place finish just doesn’t match the expectations of what Texas could and should be. This year’s team is probably going to be just fine, but, again, is that the goal? Texas doesn’t seem to be in a big hurry to move on from Smart – or his $10 million buyout – but if it’s another so-so year, does Smart look for the exit on his own, potentially with a lucrative landing spot that’s a better fit?

Shaka Smart (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING …

The Big 12 is again one of the strongest leagues in the country, but probably doesn’t have as many Final Four threats as it’s had in years past.

I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT …

Kansas winning a national title and giving Snoop Dogg – and his acrobatic dancers? – a championship ring.

FIVE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES TO CIRCLE ON YOUR CALENDAR

  • Nov. 5, Kansas vs. Duke
  • Dec. 8, Iowa State vs. Seton Hall
  • Dec. 7, Baylor vs. Arizona
  • Dec. 10, Texas Tech vs. Louisville
  • Dec. 21, Kansas vs. Villanova

PREDICTED FINISH

1. KANSAS: Last year would have been perfectly acceptable for most programs across the country, but the Jayhawks ain’t that, are they? So they’re back this season as one of the two or three best teams in the country, and not only will they likely start a new Big 12 streak, but they could get Bill Self that second national title as well.

2. BAYLOR: It’s easy to forget that Tristan Clark was one of the most productive players in the Big 12 last year before his injury, but his return to Waco makes the Bears formidable with much of last year’s core also back and transfers MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell also in the fold.

3. TEXAS TECH: The Red Raiders are essentially trying to do this year what they did last: Replace a huge amount of talent and production without missing a beat. Given they’re projected by most as a top-10 team, there’s a lot of confidence they’ll be able to pull it off. That’s a vote of confidence in Chris Beard that few other coaches – especially with a relatively limited head-coaching track record – are given. Beard, though, is that good.

4. IOWA STATE: The Cyclones lost five of their top seven players from last year’s team, but there’s optimism in Ames with starters Tyrese Haliburton and Michael Jacobson returning, Solomon Young back from injury and the injury sophomore center George Conditt IV stepping into a bigger role. The reason to be real bullish on Iowa State, though, the newcomers who should bolster the roster in a big way. Prentiss Nixon is eligible after sitting out last season following his transfer from Colorado State while Rasir Bolton, who averaged 11 ppg as a freshman at Penn State, is immediately eligible and fills a huge scoring need on the perimeter. The Cyclones lost a ton, but probably won’t take a significant step back.

5. OKLAHOMA STATE: Last year was a total and complete train wreck for the Cowboys. Players got kicked off the team, and the team mostly got kicked around the Big 12. Here’s guessing that changes this year. All five starters are back, including the aforementioned Lindy Waters. Isaac Likekele was one of the standouts at the FIBA U19s for Team USA. Yor Anei is one of the best shot blockers in the country. Thomas Dziagwa and Cameron McGriff are proven Big 12 players. That’s a great foundation.

Mike Boynton (John Weast/Getty Images)

And on top of that, Mike Boynton welcomes a top-25 recruiting class and UMass grad transfer Jonathan Laurent, who shot 46.7 percent from 3-point range last year. They could easily be the surprise contender in the conference this season.

6. TEXAS: There are a lot of nice pieces in Austin, but probably no lottery pick, which is something Shaka Smart has had the benefit of early in his tenure. You could argue this might be Smart’s least-talented team. Again, plenty of solid players, but are there any true gamechangers?

7. OKLAHOMA: Kristian Doolittle and Brady Manek return from last year’s NCAA tournament team while Long Kruger also gets Wichita State transfer Austin Reaves and top-50 recruit De’Vion Harmon, but the rest of the roster looks thin.

Kruger is one of the country’s best coaches, so he could get enough out of this group to get another tourney appearance, but it’ll be tough sledding against the rest of the Big 12. Luckily for them, flirting with .500 in this league keeps you in the Selection Sunday discussion.

8. KANSAS STATE: Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes and Dean Wade are gone, ending an era in Manhattan that saw an Elite Eight and a Big 12 title. Those three, particularly Wade, were really the face and heart of the program in its recent run of success. Their losses will be hard to overcome.

The Wildcats do, though, return Xavier Sneed, a bona fide NBA prospect along with Makol Mawein, Carter Diarra and Mike McGuirl. That’s a solid group, but is there enough scoring there? And can they be as excellent defensively as the last two years?

9. TCU: By many accounts, Jamie Dixon would be the coach at UCLA in his native southern California if the Bruins would have ponied up the $8 million it would have cost to buy him out of Fort Worth. That didn’t happen, though, and Dixon remains with his alma mater, albeit with a weaker roster than he’s had the past couple seasons.

The Horned Frogs suffered quite a bit of attrition, but still have Desmond Bane, one of the league’s best shooters, and Kevin Samuel, one of the conference’s promising young big men. RJ Nembhard, who has shown promising flashes, steps into a bigger role and George Mason transfer Jaire Grayer will help, but it’s hard to see this TCU team competing near the upper-half of the conference.

10. WEST VIRGINIA: Bob Huggins didn’t hide his disdain for his team throughout last year’s last-place finish, but the Mountaineers did show some signs of life late in the year after booting a couple players. Still, Huggins called last year’s campaign “miserable” as losses mounted.

West Virginia could be in line for a similar season despite bringing in McDonald’s All-american Oscar Tsheibwe, a center with a 7-foot-5 wingspan that could remind those in Morgantown of Sagaba Konate. It’s usually not a good idea to doubt what Huggins can get out of his teams, but looking at his roster relative to the rest of the Big 12, it looks like another last-place finish is in order.