Best Bets: Previewing Kentucky-Kansas, and why it’s time to buy Michigan schools

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Here is everything you need to know when betting the biggest games this weekend.

As always, this is coming out before the Vegas lines for Saturday’s games, so we are using projections from KenPom and Haslametrics to walk through how the game will play out. 

No. 9 KANSAS at No. 8 KENTUCKY, Sat. 6:00 p.m. (ESPN)

  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Kentucky 73, Kansas 69
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Kentucky 72, Kansas 68

The biggest game of the weekend will feature two blue-bloods squaring off once again in the marquee matchup of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge: No. 9 Kansas heading to Rupp Arena to take on No. 8 Kentucky.

These are two teams that are heading in opposite directions. Kentucky has lost once since Dec. 8th — by two points at Alabama and in overtime against Seton Hall in New York City. Since then, they’ve been dominant against UNC on a neutral, blew out Louisville at Louisville and beat Auburn on the road after blowing a 16 point second half lead. The youngsters on this roster, namely Tyler Herro and Ashton Hagans, have really come of age in the last month. Kansas, on the other hand, is still trying to work out how they are going to play without Udoka Azubuike anchoring things inside, and it hasn’t gone great. They are now 7-3 in games in which he hasn’t played, and that includes road losses to Arizona State and West Virginia.

And for my money, that’s the most notable thing in this matchup. In their last four road games, Kansas is 1-3. In those four games, they are averaging 18 turnovers. Devon Dotson, in particular, has struggled, as he’s averaged 4.5 turnovers himself. Seven of them came in the loss at West Virginia. He has just a single turnover combined in the last three home games that the’s played.

On Saturday afternoon, Dotson will get the honor of going up against Hagans, one of the best on-ball defenders in all of college basketball. In the eight games since he took over as the star point guard on this roster, Hagans has averaged 3.8 steals. Tuesday’s 21 point win over Mississippi State was the first time during that stretch that he did not collect three steals in a game — he finished with two after his third was credited as just a “turnover”.

So that’s not ideal.

Neither is the fact that Kansas is a team that really struggles to shoot the ball from the perimeter as they go up against a Kentucky team whose single biggest (only?) weakness defensively is how much they struggle to defend the three-point line.

All of that screams Kentucky, but the matchups give me some pause.

For starters, Kansas is playing four-around-one now. Kentucky is married to playing two bigs, meaning that one of Reid Travis or P.J. Washington (likely Washington, even though he’s probably a better matchup for Lawson than Travis is) will end up guarding one of Kansas’ big wings — Marcus Garrett, Lagerald Vick, Quentin Grimes, Ochai Agbaji. That won’t be ideal, but the silver lining: The best matchup would be Agbaji, and with Grimes’ continued struggles, I expect him to be on the floor for 25-plus minutes.

PICKS: Assuming the line opens around (-4), I really like Kentucky here. They’re at home, they’re trending up and Kansas has not bee good on the road this season.

No. 5 MICHIGAN at INDIANA, Fri. 6:30 p.m. (FS1)

  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Michigan 66, Indiana 62
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Michigan 66, Indiana 63

I love the Michigan side here. The last time they played — albeit it in Ann Arbor — the Wolverines won by 11 in a game that was never really as close as the final score would suggest. Michigan is as good defensively as anyone in college basketball, and they specifically have elite defenders in spots to guard Juwan Morgan, Romeo Langford and whoever it is that Archie Miller has at the point.

Indiana has lost five straight games, but it’s also worth noting here that Michigan is coming off of a loss of their own. They dropped their first game of the season at Wisconsin on Saturday and had another wakeup call against Minnesota during the week. This has the feel of a bounce back game for the Wolverines against an Indiana team that is in the middle of a crisis.

PICKS: Being that this is a Friday night tip, the Vegas line is out and has already been bet up to Michigan (-4.5). I don’t love much this week, but I think this is probably the best bet you can get.

No. 9 MICHIGAN STATE at PURDUE, Sun. 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Michigan State 75, Purdue 73
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Michigan State 78, Purdue 74

Michigan State is playing their best basketball of the season, having won 12 straight games since the overtime loss to Louisville in November. Three of their last four and four of their last six have come away from the Breslin Center, and in those four wins, they have beaten Ohio State, Penn State, Nebraska and Iowa by an average of 11.3 points. Cassius Winston has fully emerged and Matt McQuaid has returned to the lineup healthy.

McQuaid is the key here, because he was the guy that was tasked with chasing around Carsen Edwards the last time these two teams faced off. In that game — which came in East Lansing — Edwards was 3-for-16 from the floor with no assists and four turnovers in an 18 point loss. Last season, Edwards was 5-for-15 when Purdue played Michigan State, again at the Breslin Center. He was 6-for-16 in two games against Michigan State as a freshman. In his career, Edwards is 14-for-47 from the floor in four games against the Spartans.

That matters more now than ever, as there is just one high-major player (Ethan Happ) with a higher usage rate than Edwards. His usage rate, at 34.9, is higher than Markus Howard’s and just a shade below Ja Morant’s, at 35.6. Slow him down and you slow Purdue down.

PICKS: I want to see where the line opens on this game, because I don’t have a great feel for it. On the one hand, Purdue is unranked and sitting at 13-6 overall on the season. On the other hand, they’ve won seven of their last eight games, they’re coming off of impressive wins over Indiana and at Ohio State and they won at Wisconsin two weeks ago. That’s part of the reason why they are a top ten team on KenPom.

If this line ends up around Michigan State (-5), then I’ll probably pass. But KenPom is projecting the score at Michigan State (-2), and if the line opens around there, then I think Sparty will be a good bet.

No. 24 IOWA STATE at No. 20 OLE MISS, Sat. 12:00 p.m. (ESPN)

  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Iowa State 73, Ole Miss 72
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Iowa State 75, Ole Miss 72

Before we dive fully into this conversation, understand this: I am not a believer in Ole Miss. They are an awesome story. Kermit Davis has done a terrific coaching job getting the Rebels to the point where they aren’t even in the bubble conversation right now. They are also a team that I think is closer to the top 40 than they are the No. 20 team in the country.

On the other hand, I love this Iowa State team. They space the floor, they are hard to guard because of just how skilled their wings are and they haven’t yet hit their ceiling, not with Lindell Wigginton and Cam Lard still trying to find their way. They’ve lost three of their last five games and two of their last three on the road, but those losses came by three points at Baylor and by four points at Kansas.

PICKS: I’m guessing this will open around a pick-em or with the Cyclones giving a point, and I think Iowa State wins outright.

No. 16 AUBURN at No. 22 MISSISSIPPI STATE, Sat. 8:30 p.m. (SECNET)

  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Mississippi State 75, Auburn 74
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Mississippi State 78, Auburn 75

The Bulldogs have lost three of their last five games, they are coming off of a 21 point loss to Kentucky and they currently have a 2-3 record is SEC play. Auburn has also lost three of their last five games — including their last two — and sits at 2-3 in the SEC. Both teams pounds the offensive glass and shoot the three ball well while neither team clears the defensive glass or runs opponents off of the three-point line all that well.

PICKS: I don’t think either team is all that good and I don’t think either team will actually be able to consistently get stops. I think I like the Auburn side more, assuming the line opens at Auburn (+2) or something close to that, but I think my favorite bet would be the over, especially if you can get it in the high 140s.

SYRACUSE at No. 10 VIRGINIA TECH, Sat. 8:00 p.m. (ESPN)

  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Virginia Tech 71, Syracuse 64
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Virginia Tech 74, Syracuse 64

This is such a weird matchup.

On the one hand, Virginia Tech is one of the very best three-point shooting teams in the country, making 42.1 percent of their triples while taking 43.9 percent of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. They have shooters everywhere in their lineups and a pair of dynamic playmaking lead guards to create those open looks. At the same time, Syracuse holds opponents under 30 percent from beyond the arc while forcing more threes to be taken than any other high-major team in college hoops.

This makes sense. Their zone is so limiting to penetration that you have to settle for out of rhythm threes is a long and athletic defender jumping at you.

But here’s the thing: Monmouth in the only team in the country that has allowed a higher percentage of their points allowed to come on threes than Virginia Tech, and Syracuse is the only high major team that forces opponents into a higher percentage of their field goal attempts coming from deep. This would normally be a good thing against Syracuse, but they are coming off of a game where they made 14 threes and Buddy Boeheim is now 11-for-20 from beyond the arc in his last four games.

PICKS: If the line opens at Virginia Tech (-7), I think I’m going to have to take it. The dots connect, but it is worth noting that when these two played last season, Virginia Tech lost by 12 at the Carrier Dome on a night where they shot 10-for-30 from three.

KANSAS STATE at TEXAS A&M, Sat. 2:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM PROJECTION: Kansas State 65, Texas A&M 60
  • HASLAMETRICS PROJECTION: Kansas State 66, Texas &M 60

We were all over Kansas State last week and I think we need to be all over the Wildcats again this week.

Texas A&M is a bad basketball team. They are 7-10 on the season, they’ve lost six of their last seven games and one of those six losses came at home against Texas Southern. Kansas State, on the other hand, has now won five straight and is playing with a healthy Dean Wade. They are suffocating defensively and better than what the computers recognize on the offensive end of the floor now that Dean Wade is back in action. Their leading scorer — T.J. Starks — averages more turnovers than assists and is shooting 34.2 percent from the floor and 22 percent from three. He will be early alive by Barry Brown.

PICKS: I really, really hope this opens at Kansas State (-5).

No. 9 Kansas blows lead, then holds off No. 5 Texas, 88-80

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LAWRENCE, Kan. – Dajuan Harris Jr. was willing to acknowledge that Kansas was facing something rare when fifth-ranked and Big 12-leading Texas arrived at Allen Fieldhouse.

The defending national champs played like it.

Gradey Dick scored 21 points, Harris had 17 points, six rebounds and five assists, and the ninth-ranked Jayhawks held on after blowing a 14-point first-half lead to beat the Longhorns 88-80 and tighten the league race.

Kevin McCullar Jr. added 16 points, Joseph Yesufu scored 14 off the bench and KJ Adams finished with 10, helping the Jayhawks (19-5, 7-4) overcome an off night from Jalen Wilson. The league’s leading scorer at 21.5 points per game battled foul trouble and was held to just two, ending his streak of 25 straight double-figure games.

“We knew we had to come in here and get a win,” said Dick, who had the Jayhawks’ only two 3-pointers. “The big thing, just in preparation for the week, was coming out with energy. When we do that, we’re a scary team.”

The Jayhawks needed everyone’s help holding off the Longhorns’ Marcus Carr.

The Minnesota transfer, who had a game-high 29 points, kept answering Kansas baskets down the stretch. His 3-pointer got the Longhorns within 77-68 with 2:25 left, three free throws made it 78-71 with 1:31 to go, and his three-point play got the Longhorns (19-5, 8-3) within 86-80 with 23.5 seconds remaining.

Texas quickly fouled Dick at the other end, and his free throw with 18 seconds left helped to put the game away.

“It was as close to a must-win as you could have this early in the season to win the league,” Kansas coach Bill Self said. “You go down three games with seven left, you’d have to win out and get a lot of help from others. Now, we still have as hard a schedule as everybody, but we can kind of control our own destiny where if we play well, we have a shot.”

Timmy Allen finished with 18 points for the Longhorns. Sir’Jabari Rice had 12 before fouling out.

“It was their night tonight in terms of what they got done,” Texas interim coach Rodney Terry said.

The Longhorns have made a habit of overcoming double-digit deficits: 18 down to beat TCU, 12 down to beat Texas Tech and 14 down to beat No. 12 Kansas State last Saturday in a game played just down the road.

So it wasn’t that surprising when Texas dug another 14-point hole Monday night.

Just like the Longhorns did in Manhattan, though, they began to rally. Texas shook off 10 first-half turnovers to get within 42-35 by the break, then kept coming in the second half. Hunter hit a 3-pointer, Carr added a couple of buckets and it was 43-all when Self called a timeout to slow Texas’ momentum.

Unlike the Horned Frogs, Red Raiders and Wildcats, the Jayhawks rose to the challenge.

McCullar’s three-point play while they were clinging to a 49-48 lead gave them a boost, and Dick added a couple of free throws. But it was back-to-back buckets by Harris, who is known more as a distributor than as a scorer, that pushed the lead to 58-50 with about 12 minutes to go.

Texas closed within 66-60 but, after the Jayhawks pulled down two offensive boards, Dick hit another 3-pointer. And when Yesufu bookended a couple of free throws by Harris, the lead had stretched to 75-62 with 3 minutes to go.

The Jayhawks were able to fend off Carr and the Longhorns from there.

“Give those guys credit. They came in and played at a very high level,” Terry said, “and we knew that would be the case.”

BANGED-UP BIRDS

The Jayhawks were missing several backups. Zack Clemence has a hurt knee, Bobby Pettiford Jr. is dealing with a hamstring injury and Zuby Ejiofor a foot injury. Kyle Cuffe Jr. (knee) and Cam Martin (shoulder) also were out.

“I thought the bench was great. As good as they’ve been all year,” Self said. “We had nine guys we could put in the game.”

BIG PICTURE

Texas has struggled to get off to good starts this season, and it seemed the energy the Longhorns expended climbing back into Monday night’s game was missing by the end. Carr tried to carry them but he needed more help.

Kansas got the production it needed from the bench. Yesufu provided the scoring pop but big man Ernest Udeh Jr. and guard MJ Rice, both seldom-used freshmen, also provided important minutes for the Jayhawks.

UP NEXT

Texas heads home after its Sunflower State swing to play West Virginia.

Kansas has a two-game trip next with Oklahoma on Saturday and Oklahoma State.

No. 19 Miami rolls past Duke 81-59, moves to 13-0 at home

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CORAL GABLES, Fla. – Miami guard Isaiah Wong pointed to the crowd, waving his arms, asking for noise, asking for the celebration to start.

The lead, at that point, was 3-0.

Didn’t matter. From start to finish, the Hurricanes were in total control — and got a rare rout over Duke.

Norchad Omier had 17 points and 10 rebounds, Jordan Miller added 16 points and No. 19 Miami never trailed on the way to a 81-59 win over Duke on Monday night.

Wooga Poplar scored 14 and Wong scored 11 for Miami (19-5, 10-4 Atlantic Coast Conference). The Hurricanes led by as many as 26 and improved to 13-0 at home.

“That was a great performance, from start to finish,” Miami coach Jim Larranaga said. “There was a lot of energy. And all I can tell you is, everybody who came tonight’s game is invited back – because that’s the kind of environment that we’d love to have every night.”

Ryan Young and Dereck Lively II each scored 11 points for Duke (17-7, 8-5), which saw its three-game winning streak snapped. Jeremy Roach added 10 points for the Blue Devils, who were outrebounded 38-31 and committed 21 turnovers.

It was the second game this season where Duke never led, and the 22-point loss was its second-worst this season. The Blue Devils lost to N.C. State by 24 on Jan. 4.

“Congratulations to Miami. There’s a reason they haven’t lost here at home,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said. “They’re really good. They obviously had it clicking on all cylinders right away.”

It was the second-biggest Miami victory margin in the series between the schools, topped only by the Hurricanes’ 90-63 win over then-No. 1 Duke on Jan. 23, 2013. Miami also enjoyed huge edges in points off turnovers (23-9), second-chance points (24-9) and fast-break points (17-7).

And Miami got payback for a 68-66 loss at Duke earlier this season.

“We had something to prove,” Miller said. “They beat us last time. We were revved up for this game and we got it done.”

Duke fans started leaving with 4:24 left and Miami up by 26, the Hurricanes’ student section serenading them as they departed.

Miami ran out to a 13-1 lead and stretched it to 34-17 later in the first half, putting Duke in unfamiliar territory quickly. The Blue Devils had trailed by more than 15 in just two other games – by 29 to N.C. State, and by 19 to Purdue.

“When you have 21 turnovers, you can’t expect yourself to have a good game,” Lively said.

It was 40-26 at the half. When Miami opened the second half on a 9-0 run to build a 23-point lead, the outcome quickly became academic.

“The crowd fueled us to keep it going,” Larranaga said.

BIG PICTURE

Duke: Maybe it’s too difficult to quickly reset after a rivalry game. This is the third consecutive year the Blue Devils have lost the game immediately following their first matchup of the season with North Carolina. “It’s tough. It’s not easy. But it’s what you have to do. … It’s part of playing in the ACC,” Scheyer said.

Miami: The Hurricanes remained one of six teams from major conferences to be unbeaten at home – the others being Alabama, UCLA, Providence, Iowa State and Duke. Across Division I, 20 teams entered Monday with perfect home marks.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

Miami has been in the poll for nine straight weeks, the program’s longest such run since being ranked in each of the first 11 polls of the 2017-18 season – and figures to stay there if it tops Louisville on Saturday. Duke has been out of the AP Top 25 for the last four weeks; the Blue Devils were two slots away in the poll released Monday, behind only Florida Atlantic on the “also receiving votes” list.

BARRY HONORED

Basketball Hall of Famer Rick Barry, Miami’s all-time leading scorer, was presented with a customized basketball during a first-half stoppage of play.

UP NEXT

Duke: Visits No. 8 Virginia on Saturday.

Miami: Hosts Louisville on Saturday.

Minnesota-Illinois postponed for COVID-19 in Gophers program

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MINNEAPOLIS – Minnesota’s game at Illinois that was scheduled for Tuesday has been postponed because of COVID-19 health and safety protocols within the Gophers’ program.

The announcement was made Monday by Minnesota, which didn’t specify how many players would have been unable to play.

The Gophers (7-15, 1-11) had only eight available scholarship players for their last game, an 81-46 loss to Maryland on Saturday. Dawson Garcia (ankle) has missed the last four games, and Braeden Carrington (leg) has missed the last six. Parker Fox and Isaiah Ihnen will not play this season while recovering from knee injuries.

The game will be rescheduled by the Big Ten, with input from both schools.

Minnesota is next scheduled to host Iowa on Sunday. Illinois (16-7, 7-5) will host No. 24 Rutgers on Saturday.

Purdue stays No. 1 in AP Top 25; NC State in at No. 22

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Purdue’s unquestioned grip on No. 1 in The Associated Press poll is gone after a weekend loss. That didn’t stop the Boilermakers from remaining at the top anyway.

The Boilermakers earned 38 of 62 first-place votes in the poll to remain at No. 1 for a third straight week and seventh time this season. Purdue was the unanimous choice last week, the first for any team this season, before falling at Indiana over the weekend for only its second loss.

The Boilermakers (22-2, 11-2) have a leading candidate for national player of the year in Zach Edey and KenPom’s No. 1-ranked offense (121.1 points scored per 100 possessions) to go with a top-25 defense. But they got down big, committed 16 turnovers and allowed the Hoosiers — up to No. 18 this week — to shoot nearly 53% in a 79-74 loss Saturday.

“When we go to Zach and we make some perimeter shots, the defense gets better sometimes when the offense flows,” Purdue coach Matt Painter said at his postgame news conference. “And you can’t do that. You can always rebound, you can always take care of the ball, you can always make your free throws, those things there.”

The loss meant Houston collected 22 first-place votes as it rose one spot to No. 2, followed by No. 3 Alabama and No. 4 Arizona in each claiming one.

THE TOP TIER

Texas jumped five spots to No. 5, shooting past Tennessee, which fell four spots to No. 6 after losing last week at Florida.

UCLA, Virginia, Kansas and Marquette rounded out the top 10, with Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles cracking the top 10 for the first time since 2019.

RISING

The Longhorns’ jump marked the biggest of the week, followed by Marquette and Miami each rising four spots. No. 13 Xavier, No. 15 Saint Mary’s and No. 21 UConn joined Indiana in each moving up three positions.

In all, 12 teams rose from last week’s rankings.

SLIDING

Kansas State took the week’s biggest tumble, falling five spots to No. 12 after losing at Kansas and at home to Texas last week. No. 16 Gonzaga joined Tennessee in falling four spots after its overtime loss at Saint Mary’s.

In all, nine teams fell from last week’s rankings.

STATUS QUO

Purdue was the only team to remain in the same position this week.

WELCOME

North Carolina State earned its first AP Top 25 ranking in four years, checking in at No. 22.

The Wolfpack (19-5, 9-4 Atlantic Coast Conference) spent six weeks in the poll during the 2018-19 season. N.C. State already has surpassed the win total for each of the last two seasons and is in contention for the program’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2018.

Creighton and Rutgers joined N.C. State as this week’s new additions to the poll, though both were ranked earlier this season. The Bluejays were No. 9 in the preseason poll and peaked at No. 7 before falling out by mid-December, while the Scarlet Knights spent a week at No. 23 in mid-January.

FAREWELL (FOR NOW)

Florida Atlantic (No. 19), Clemson (No. 20) and Auburn (No. 25) fell out of this week’s poll.

CONFERENCE WATCH

The Big 12 leads all leagues with six ranked teams, including No. 11 Iowa State, No. 14 Baylor and No. 17 TCU. The Big East is next with five ranked teams, followed by the Big Ten and ACC with three each.

The Pac-12, Southeastern and West Coast conferences each have two ranked teams, while the American Athletic and Mountain West each have one.

Indiana reaches No. 2 in women’s AP Top 25; South Carolina still No. 1

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South Carolina beat a top opponent to remain No. 1 in the women’s poll and now has a showdown with another one looming this weekend.

The Gamecocks (23-0) topped then- No. 5 UConn 81-77 to remain unbeaten and stay the unanimous choice atop the poll from the 28-member national media panel. After facing Auburn, South Carolina will play No. 3 LSU in a matchup of the last two unbeatens in Division I women’s college basketball.

Dawn Staley’s team has won 29 consecutive games and has been No. 1 in the poll for 33 consecutive weeks. That’s one week short of tying the Huskies for the third-longest streak atop the poll. Only UConn (51 weeks) and Louisiana Tech (36) have had longer runs at No. 1.

While South Carolina has had a stranglehold on No. 1 for more than a year, Indiana is making its first appearance ever at No. 2 after Stanford lost to Washington.

“I’m going to relish this for a minute, knowing where the program was to where it is,” Indiana coach Teri Moren said. “We’ve made a lot of history since we’ve been here in our nine seasons and it’s one of the more historical things we’ve been able to accomplish. Give our players credit, I don’t want to discount what a big achievement this is. We’re more than humbled to be No. 2.”

Indiana has won 10 straight since suffering its lone loss of the season to Michigan State. The Hoosiers have a tough stretch coming up, starting with a home game against No. 5 Iowa. Indiana, which hadn’t been ranked higher than fourth, then plays No. 13 Ohio State and 12th-ranked Michigan.

“That’s why we take it one game at a time, but you understand the magnitude of what’s ahead of us. I tell the kids all the time we’re in control of our own destiny,” Moren said.

LSU remained at No. 3 after close wins over Tennessee, Georgia and Texas A&M. The Tigers have a week to prepare for the Gamecocks.

UConn moved up one spot to fourth after its close loss to the Gamecocks and Iowa was fifth.

The Cardinal fell to sixth with Utah, Maryland, Duke and Notre Dame rounding out the top 10. The Blue Devils beat the Irish to take over sole possession of first in the ACC and vault up six spots in the poll. It’s Duke’s best ranking since the team finished the 2017 season ranked ninth.

FALLING CYCLONES

It was a rough week for Iowa State, which lost to Kansas by one point and Baylor by six. The Cyclones fell nine spots in the poll from 12th to 21st.

RE-ENTRY

Colorado came back into the poll at No. 25 after beating Oregon and Oregon State over the weekend. The Buffaloes were ranked for four weeks before falling out last week. Middle Tennessee dropped out of the poll after losing both its games last week.