Best Bets: Home underdogs in ranked matchups will make us rich

By Rob DausterJan 4, 2019, 3:18 PM EST

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The first weekend of conference play kicks off, which means that this is the first time that we have a full slate of college basketball games for our viewing pleasure.

REMINDER: The official Vegas lines for the Saturday and Sunday games have not been released, so we will be using the projections from analytic sites KenPom and Haslametrics to talk through what the spreads and totals are.

Let’s dive into this weekend’s games:

No. 9 FLORIDA STATE at No. 4 VIRGINIA, Sat. 3:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

KENPOM PROJECTION: Virginia 70, Florida State 61
HASLAMETRIC PROJECTION: Virginia 71, Florida State 57

This is a really interesting matchup for the simple fact that it is going to be our first real chance to get a taste of just how good Florida State truly is.

I’m firmly on board with the idea that Virginia is awesome yet again this season. They are just as good as ever on the defensive end of the floor but the presence of De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome has made them dangerous offensively. And I think that it is Hunter that makes this such a difficult matchup for Florida State, because the way that the Seminoles want to play is to spread out the floor and create mismatches. They have bigs that can play on the perimeter and wings that can thrive at the four, and Virginia is no longer as susceptible to those mismatches with Hunter at the four and Kihei Clark at the point.

Which brings me to another point — I don’t think Florida State’s press is going to work, not with Clark and Jerome both playing major minutes. Virginia is one of the nation’s very best at protecting the ball. They are also one of the nation’s best at clearing the defensive glass; Leonard Hamilton’s team will not be getting many extra possessions.

PICKS: Based on what KenPom and Haslametrics have as projections, I think that the spread in this game is going to end up being pretty big, and that’s not something that I really want a part of. Virginia plays such few possessions and Florida State is good enough that I can’t really see this becoming a blowout. Do you really want to sweat Virginia (-8) against a top ten team? I don’t.

No. 8 MICHIGAN STATE at No. 14 OHIO STATE, Sat. 12:00 p.m. (FOX)

KENPOM PROJECTION: Michigan State 74, Ohio State 72
HASLAMETRIC PROJECTION: Michigan State 75, Ohio State 69

This is going to be a tricky spot for the Spartans, who are 2-1 in true road games this year. Michigan State is clearly the more talented team. I don’t think that’s really up for debate, but neither is the fact that Chris Holtmann has quickly become one of the very best coaches in college basketball. This is not going to be easy for the Spartans, not when the Buckeyes can defend as well as they do and not when Kaleb Wesson has the size inside to keep the Spartans from being able to pound the rock into Nick Ward all afternoon. Remember, in this matchup on this floor last season, Ohio State made a statement with a 16 point win.

PICKS: To me, that’s what this bet come down to. I am not totally sold on Michigan State. And I do think that Ohio State matches up really well them. If Ohio State is getting points, I love it. I’ll probably be on the Ohio State money line, especially if the spread ends up being closer to what Haslametrics is projecting than what KenPom is projecting.

No. 5 KANSAS at IOWA STATE, Sat. 5:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

KENPOM PROJECTION: Iowa State 75, Kansas 74
HASLAMETRIC PROJECTION: Iowa State 77, Kansas 69

I am glad to see that both KenPom and Haslametric are projecting Iowa State to win this game. Given the powers of Hilton Magic, I tend to think that is how this game is going to end up playing out. The Jayhawks have lost their only true road game of the season — falling at Arizona State — while Iowa State’s computer numbers haven’t fully factored in the return of Lindell Wigginton from his foot injury.

The biggest question is going to be how the Cyclones deal with the Kansas low-post game. Udoka Azubuike has returned to the lineup and is capable of overpowering smaller defenders, and even when he was off the floor against a better defensive team in Oklahoma, the Jayhawks actually looked better running offense through Dedric Lawson at the five.

PICKS: I am very interested to see what this line is going to end up being. I will be on Iowa State as long as they aren’t favored by more than two or three points, and I will be all over the money line if they are getting points. I would also tend to lean towards the over, assuming the total will be somewhere around the high 140s. Both teams are willing to run, and I am not sure either team is really cut out for slowing the other down. It’s a bad matchup for both sides.

No. 21 INDIANA at No. 2 MICHIGAN, Sun. 4:30 p.m. (CBS)

KENPOM PROJECTION: Michigan 70, Indiana 62
HASLAMETRIC PROJECTION: Michigan 71, Indiana 60

This is a tough spot for Indiana, especially if they are going to be asked to play without Rob Phinisee, who is dealing with a concussion. Not having a point guard to go up against a team that is as stout defensively as Michigan is will be a nightmare scenario for the Hoosiers, who have spent the last month finding a way to win ugly. That was on display on Thursday night, as they worked back from a deficit to knock off Illinois in Bloomington.

I do not expect this game to be high-scoring. Michigan will be able to control pace, and when combined with the fact that Indiana is going to struggle to score against a set defense makes this a game that is difficult to see getting into the 70s. That also means that it will be that much more difficult for Michigan to create separation.

PICKS: I’ll side with Michigan here, although I wouldn’t feel all that comfortable taking them at more than (-8). I’ll also lean towards taking the under here, assuming it is somewhere in the low 130s.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND’S NOTABLE GAMES AND BETS

No. 13 KENTUCKY (-3.5, 147.5) at ALABAMA, Sat. 1:00 p.m. (ESPN): The projections by both KenPom and Haslametrics are pretty similar here, which gives us a good jumping off point: Kentucky is coming off of a pair of really impressive wins away from Rupp Arena against two teams that are both better than Alabama. The Tide have landed four pretty nice wins in a row, but I’m not sure the models have fully accounted for how good Kentucky has been since Quade Green left. Throw in that Alabama fans will be probably already be pregaming for Monday night’s CFB title game, and I would be all over the Wildcats here at (-3.5), but I’m guessing the line will open closer to (-6).

CLEMSON at No. 1 DUKE, Sat. 8:00 p.m.: It is going to be interesting to see where this line opens up. KenPom is projecting Duke to win by 16. Haslemetrics has them winning by 24 points. I liked this Clemson group coming into the season because they had good guards and could really defend, but they’ve struggled adapting to a bigger lineup and their defense has taken a hit. Clemson’s best win is against Lipscomb at home. I’d probably lean Duke up to about (-15) here, but I’ll likely stay away myself.

No. 24 NEBRASKA at No. 25 IOWA, Sun. 5:30 p.m. (BTN): Another game where KenPom and Haslametrics differ pretty drastically — Nebraska (-2) for the former and (-10) for the latter. After a promising start to the season, Iowa’s defense has fallen off of a cliff, and Nebraska has the dudes to take advantage. I’d lean the Cornhuskers.

ST. JOHN’S at GEORGETOWN, Sat. 1:00 p.m. (CBS): This is a really interesting matchup as the Johnnies are fairly unproved but coming off of a resounding win over Marquette while the Hoyas are a team no one trusts yet just smacked around Butler in Hinkle Fieldhouse. Both sites are projecting St. John’s to win. I don’t trust the Red Storm on the road just yet, especially not in a silent Capital One Arena. Georgetown moneyline. Let’s get it.

CAL at UCLA, Sat. 4:00 p.m. (Pac-12): I will be very interested to see where this line opens up. UCLA looked like a team with three five-stars and a bunch of future pros against Stanford on Thursday night. Cal is terrible. Are the Bruins rejuvenated after Alford’s firing? Both sites have Cal losing by about 12 points, and I think I would probably hammer UCLA (-12).

No. 6 NEVADA at NEW MEXICO, Sat. 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU): New Mexico wants to run and run and run. They don’t, however, have the talent to play that way. They also can’t guard, and Nevada has dudes that will kill you in transition and will expose players that can’t guard. KenPom has this at Nevada (-16) and Haslametrics has it at Nevada (-23). Both have the total right around 156. Give me Nevada and give me the over.

WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS, Sat. 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2): West Virginia doesn’t really have any talent this year, not like they have in the last four years. Texas hasn’t been able to score since Shaka Smart arrived in Austin. Texas doesn’t want to play fast and doesn’t commit turnovers, which is what West Virginia’s defense is based on. Both teams are coming off hideous games that finished way under low totals. I’m hammering the under in this one, whatever it ends up being.

Florida Atlantic ends Fairleigh Dickinson’s run for Sweet 16

Associated PressMar 20, 2023, 12:56 AM EDT

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Fairleigh Dickinson came up just a little short this time.

Johnell Davis scored 29 points, Alijah Martin added 14 and Florida Atlantic ended underdog FDU’s magical March by outlasting the No. 16 seed 78-70 on Sunday night in the NCAA Tournament.

The ninth-seeded Owls (33-3) needed everything they had to put away the Knights (21-16), the nation’s smallest team and a surprise winner Friday night over 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey and top-seeded Purdue in just the second 16-over-1 upset in tournament history.

It will be FAU, not FDU, which will play Tennessee in the East Region semifinals on Thursday at Madison Square Garden in New York.

“It’s a nice place,” Davis said of the world’s most famous arena. “But we’ve still got to go in and put the work in as every other gym.”

Davis certainly put in the work against FDU, finishing with 12 rebounds, five assists and five steals in 34 minutes.

The Knights couldn’t come up with an encore after eliminating Purdue, but not before fighting to the finish.

When their tourney ended, first-year coach Tobin Anderson and FDU’s players walked across the floor of Nationwide Arena to thank their fans, most of whom never expected to spend five days in Ohio watching their team make history.

Demetre Roberts scored 20 points and Sean Moore had 14 for FDU, which didn’t even win the Northeast Conference tournament before becoming an NCAA team that won’t soon be forgotten. The Knights followed up a win in the play-in game at Dayton by ousting the Big Ten champion Boilermakers and taking FAU to the wire.

“We always talk about 6-0 runs, we were one 6-0 run away from the Sweet 16,” Anderson said. “We went toe to toe with a top-five team in the country, and this team is a top 25 team in the country. We went toe to toe the last few days with two great teams and didn’t back down, didn’t go away.

“We’re not just happy to be here.”

FAU, which edged Memphis on Friday for the school’s first NCAA tourney win, finally took control late in the second half of a game that was played at high speeds and at times looked more like a playground pickup game.

FDU was still within 67-64 when Davis fought for a rebound and made a put-back. After Roberts missed a long 3, FAU’s Bryan Greenlee knocked down a 3-pointer and the Owls pushed their lead to 10.

The Knights got within 76-70, and still had a chance when Greenlee missed two free throws. But Roberts, FDU’s lightning-quick 5-foot-8 guard, misfired on a layup, and the graduate student who followed Anderson to FDU from Division II St. Thomas Aquinas began to untuck his jersey, knowing his tournament was over.

Anderson, who turned around a program that went 4-22 a year ago, told his players not to foul and let the final seconds run off.

But FAU’s Martin tried and missed a 360-degree dunk, leading to an awkward exchange and tense postgame handshake between Anderson and Owls coach Dusty May.

“I apologized to him for that but also reminded him we’re the adults,” May said. “We’ve got to fix that behavior. It’s part of the game. I apologized to him.”

FDU came up short in its bid to become the first No. 16 to win twice in the tournament. The same thing happened to UMBC five years ago. After shocking No. 1 overall seed Virginia, the Retrievers lost to Kansas State in the second round.

Strikingly similar in their playing styles on the floor, there was also a commonality between the fan bases as “F-D-U” chants from one side of the court were met with cries of “F-A-U” from the other as the teams traded baskets.

May was proud of his team’s composure and ability to perform when it felt like the world was in FDU’s corner.

“We never felt like we were a Cinderella team,” said May, who got his hoops start as a student manager at Indiana under coach Bob Knight. “We went into an SEC school and won and have been in some very tough environments.

“But obviously when you’re playing FDU and they’re on the run they’re on, they’re easy to root for.”

For Anderson and the Knights, the tournament is over. The memories will carry them.

“Last year, we were 4-22,” he said, “and we’re right there to go to the Sweet 16. If that’s not one of the most amazing things I’ve seen in my life or anybody else has seen, that’s crazy. So every part of this I’ll remember forever and they will too.”

BIG PICTURE

FAU: The Owls will carry a nine-game winning streak into their matchup against the fourth-seeded Volunteers, who took out Duke on Saturday. FAU does have some experience against SEC schools this season, losing at Ole Miss and winning at Florida.

FDU: The Knights seemingly came out of nowhere to become the tourney’s biggest story. Anderson said he and his assistant coaches have already heard from players interested in joining them in Teaneck, New Jersey.

Michigan State outlasts Marquette; Izzo back to Sweet 16

Associated PressMar 20, 2023, 12:54 AM EDT

Dylan Buell/Getty Images

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Tom Izzo leaned on star guard and native New Yorker Tyson Walker to get Michigan State to Madison Square Garden for the Sweet 16.

Walker, a fourth-year player who grew up in Westbury on Long Island, delivered against Marquette in March Madness on Sunday night, scoring 23 points and punctuating Michigan State’s 69-60 victory with a steal and his first ever collegiate dunk late in the game.

And Walker wants to make sure his 68-year-old, Hall of Fame coach has a quintessential Big Apple experience.

“It means everything,” said Walker, who played two years at Northeastern before transferring to Michigan State. “Just growing up, seeing everything, playing at the Garden. Just to make those shots, look over see my dad, see how excited he was. That means everything. And I just owe Coach some pizza now. And a cab ride.”

Joey Hauser – a Marquette transfer – had 14 points and A.J. Hoggard had 13 as seventh-seeded Michigan State (21-12) took over in the last three minutes. The Spartans advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time in four years and will play third-seeded Kansas State in the East Region semifinals on Thursday.

“I’ve been in Elite Eight games; I’ve been in the Final Four – that was as intense and tough a game as I’ve been in my career,” Izzo said. “And a lot of credit goes to Marquette and (coach) Shaka (Smart) and how they played, too.”

Izzo reached his 15th regional semifinal and won his record 16th March Madness game with a lower-seeded team – one more than Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim, who retired after this season.

This one was particularly meaningful. Izzo became the face of a grieving school where three students were killed in a campus shooting on Feb. 13.

“It’s been a long year,” an emotional Izzo said in a courtside interview. “I’m just happy for our guys.”

Olivier-Maxence Prosper led second-seeded Marquette (29-7) with 16 points and Kam Jones had 14 points, including three 3-pointers, for the Big East champions.

Michigan State led by as many as 12 in the first half, but Ben Gold and Prosper made back-to-back 3-pointers to help the Golden Eagles close within 33-28 at halftime.

Prosper hit two more 3s in the first minute of the second half to give Marquette its first lead of the day. Michigan State grabbed back the lead with an 8-0 run and didn’t relinquish it.

Back-to-back baskets in the paint by Hoggard and then Walker, both times as the shot clock expired, gave the Spartans a 60-55 lead with 2:20 left. Mady Sissoko then blocked shots on consecutive Marquette possessions, and Walker had a steal followed by a game-sealing dunk with 39 seconds left.

Marquette’s nine-game winning streak ended, concluding a season in which the Golden Eagles exceeded expectations under coach Smart, who has referred to Izzo as a mentor.

Michigan State, meanwhile, finished fourth in the Big Ten but appears to be improving at the right time.

“We’ve still got some dancing to do,” Izzo said. “And we’re going to New York. I couldn’t be more excited for Tyson and even A.J., being a Philly guy.

“After watching the tournament, it doesn’t matter who we play, when we play, where we play, or how, it’s going to be a hell of a game. And I’m looking forward to it.”

BIG PICTURE

Marquette: Coming off their first Big East Tournament title, the Golden Eagles dominated Vermont in the first round of March Madness, but Michigan State was a much tougher opponent. The Golden Eagles committed 11 of their 16 turnovers in the second half, and those giveaways led to 19 Spartans points.

“I thought (Michigan State) played with great aggressiveness, particularly early in the game and at the very end of the game,” Smart said. “And those two the stretches were the difference in the outcome of the game.”

Michigan State: The Spartans came out of their shooting funk after the halfway point of the second half and pulled away. They made 15 of their 17 free throws after halftime.

KOLEK HURTING

Tyler Kolek, the Big East Player of the Year, injured his thumb when he caught it on the jersey of a Vermont player in the opening round Friday night.

He finished that game with eight points. He wasn’t much of a factor against Michigan State, either, scoring seven points, losing six turnovers and committing four fouls.

Kolek insisted the thumb “wasn’t an issue at all.”

“Just trying to be out there for my team and command the game. And I didn’t do that today,” he said.

UP NEXT

Michigan State’s next opponent, Kansas State, is making its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2018 and first under coach Jerome Tang.

Sanogo, UConn pull away from Saint Mary’s, into Sweet 16

Associated PressMar 20, 2023, 12:52 AM EDT

C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

ALBANY, N.Y. – UConn decided to return to its roots five years ago, hiring a former Big East guard as coach and then a couple years later returning to the conference where it became a national power.

Now the Huskies are back in the Sweet 16, looking like the beasts of the Big East again.

Adama Sanogo scored 24 points and Jordan Hawkins delivered from the 3-point line in the second half as UConn pulled away from Saint Mary’s for a 70-55 win on Sunday that put the Huskies in the Sweet 16 for the first time in nine years.

No. 4 seed UConn (27-8) advanced to the West Regional in Las Vegas on Thursday. Next up is eighth-seeded Arkansas, which knocked off No. 1 seed Kansas.

For the second straight game, the Huskies buried an opponent after playing a close first half. UConn outscored Iona and Saint Mary’s by a combined 86-49 in the second half in Albany this weekend.

“Eventually our depth, elite rebounding, top-20 defense, top-five offense, with the depth, I think we’re able to break some teams,” said UConn coach Dan Hurley, a former Seton Hall guard from New Jersey who was hired in 2018.

The Huskies last played in the second weekend of the tournament in 2014, when they won the most recent – and most surprising – of four national titles in a 15-year span. The first three of those titles came as a member of the Big East under coach Jim Calhoun, and all went through the West Region.

That last championship run came as a member of the American Athletic Conference, the league birthed from the Big East’s football-basketball breakup in 2013.

UConn went with the football schools and played seven years in the AAC, where its football program floundered while its vaunted men’s basketball team slipped into irrelevance.

With Hurley in charge, it has risen again, taking another step after being one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament the past two years at a place that never lost its lofty standards.

“I think in the first and even second round of tournaments, it’s more of a burden to play at UConn than it is an advantage,” Hurley said of the pressure.

These Huskies were up to the challenge.

Sanogo followed his 29-point game in the Huskies’ NCAA tourney opener with another powerful and efficient performance in the paint. The 245-pound junior was 11 for 16 from the floor and grabbed eight rebounds, dominating a big-man matchup with Mitchell Saxen (six points, three rebounds and four fouls).

Saint Mary’s (27-8) of the West Coast Conference failed to get out of the first weekend of the tournament for the second straight season as a No. 5 seed.

Aidan Mahaney and Logan Johnson each scored nine for the Gaels, who played the final 25 minutes without third-leading scorer Alex Ducas. The senior left with a back injury, coach Randy Bennett said.

“It’s not all on that. But it did affect our offensive efficiency, and I feel terrible for him,” Bennett said.

UConn used a 14-2 spurt, highlighted by a 3 from Hawkins with 11:28 left in the second half, to go up 51-40.

Hawkins had been scoreless to that point, but he added another 3 coming off a screen moments later to make it 56-45, and the “Let’s Go Huskies!” chants started to reverberate throughout MVP Arena.

“It felt great hitting those shots,” Hawkins said. “Finally found a rhythm.”

Hawkins wasn’t done, making back-to-back 3s to make it 62-47 with 6:38 left. He finished with 12 points.

Meanwhile, the Huskies defense was clamping down on the Gaels, who were held under 60 points for just the fourth time this season.

“We started to turn the ball over a little bit more, which led to them hitting some shots in transition, which really opened up the game for them,” Johnson said.

BIG PICTURE

Saint Mary’s: The Gaels, who have become Gonzaga’s closest rival in the WCC, have reached the Sweet 16 just once in program history in 2010.

“People always say, ‘Hey, get to the next level,’” said Bennett, who is in his 22nd season as Gaels coach. “We’ve been a five seed the last two years, and both years we’ve run into a really good team. Last year was UCLA.”

UConn: The Huskies go nine deep, which allows Hurley to keep his players fresh. Sanogo scored 53 points in 51 minutes in two games, with 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan providing 25 solid minutes off the bench.

“We have so many guys we can go to,” said Andre Jackson, who was playing close to his hometown of Amsterdam.

UP NEXT

UConn: The Huskies are 3-1 all-time against Arkansas.

Wong, Miller lead Miami past Indiana, into Sweet 16

Associated PressMar 20, 2023, 12:50 AM EDT

C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

ALBANY, N.Y. – After nearly getting upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Miami had a point to prove. Indiana paid the price.

Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller led a decisive second-half spurt and Miami stormed into the Sweet 16 for the second straight year Sunday night with an 85-69 win over the Hoosiers.

“Our guys were disappointed about the way they played Friday, so we were really ready to show that this is Miami basketball,” Hurricanes coach Jim Larrañaga said. “We’re very hard to guard.”

Wong, the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year who was limited to five points in a first-round win over Drake, had 27 points and eight rebounds for the Hurricanes (27-7), the only ACC team left in March Madness.

Miller, who had seven points on Friday, scored 19, and Indianapolis native Nijel Pack had 10 of his 12 points in the first half as fifth-seeded Miami got off to a fast start, led most of the game and ended Indiana’s hopes of a sixth national title.

Miami will face top-seeded Houston in the Midwest Region semifinals in Kansas City, Missouri, on Friday.

“I told the team beforehand the ACC needs to be well represented today. And we did,” Larrañaga said.

All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis had 23 points and eight rebounds for the Hoosiers (23-12), who have not been to the Sweet 16 since 2016. Freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino added 19 points and Race Thompson had 11.

Miami needed 16-1 run in the final five minutes to beat Drake. There was another late run this time but it was more composed and not as desperate.

Indiana coach Mike Woodson – who called a timeout less than two minutes into the game with his team trailing 6-0 – gave all the credit to Miami, which held a 42-26 rebounding advantage.

“They played their butts off tonight,” he said. “It was a well-coached game, and I thought they were the better team. They showed it first half and second half. I thought when we got back in it, we didn’t do the things to put us in position once we got the lead to win this game.”

Miami didn’t lose the lead until Indiana went on a 13-0 run bridging the halves to push ahead 43-40. The game was tied at 49-all when Miller, who spent a great deal of time denying Jackson-Davis the ball, hit a layup to ignite a 16-4 burst. Wong hit two 3-pointers and Miller had seven points during that stretch.

Miami led 69-60 when Wong drilled a 3 late in the shot clock, Bensley Joseph followed with a steal, and Miller fed Joseph in the corner for a wide-open 3 that made it 75-60 with 3:23 left.

“We won the game two days ago, and today I performed well,” said Wong, who was 7 of 15 from the field and 4 of 6 from long range. “I appreciate the team for that helping me out, getting me passes and getting me in the rhythm.”

Miller downplayed the feeling of some that Miami is underappreciated.

“At the end of the day, all we can do is just come out and win basketball games,” he said. “I feel like winning a game in itself is a way to get recognition. We’re going to the Sweet 16. That’s a lot of recognition.”

BIG PICTURE

Miami: The Hurricanes shared the ACC regular-season title with Virginia, which lost to Furman in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Miami fell in the conference tournament to Duke, which was beaten by Tennessee in the second round Saturday. Pittsburgh was eliminated by Xavier earlier Sunday, making Miami the lone ACC team.

Indiana: Woodson has taken the Hoosiers to the NCAA Tournament in both years on the job. It might be tough next year without Jackson-Davis, Thompson and Miller Kopp.

“Just two years ago, we were getting booed in our home city, Indianapolis, off the court in the Big Ten Tournament,” Jackson-Davis said. “Just being in this moment two years later, it’s really special. It’s really special to me to have the Indiana fans on your back and just cheering for you and giving them hope.”

UP NEXT

Another win would put Miami in its second straight Elite Eight. Larrañaga has been to the Final Four once, in his previous job at George Mason.

Ole Miss stuns Stanford, reaches first Sweet 16 in 16 years

Associated PressMar 20, 2023, 12:49 AM EDT

John Todd/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

STANFORD, Calif. – Sobbing as she received hugs from friends and administrators, Mississippi coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin tried to grasp the magnitude of her team’s stunning win against top-seeded Stanford when someone reminded her there’s more basketball to be played.

Her two young daughters danced on the floor.

Her proud father provided a shoutout to everybody back home in The Bahamas.

Her team posed and midcourt and shouted, “Seattle!” That’s where the Rebels are headed next.

Madison Scott hit a pair of free throws with 23 seconds left that gave Mississippi the lead for good, Angel Baker scored 13 points, and the Rebels delivered on their declaration to get defensive, stunning top-seeded Stanford 54-49 on Sunday night to reach the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 for the first time in 16 years.

“This is such a big accomplishment. A lot of us came here to make history and that’s what we’re doing,” freshman Ayanna Thompson said.

Behind the entire game, Stanford called timeout with 28 seconds left then Hannah Jump turned the ball over and Scott converted. Haley Jones lost the ball out of bounds on the Cardinal’s last possession with a chance to tie then again in the waning moments.

Marquesha Davis hit a pair of free throws with 15.4 seconds to play as Ole Miss overcame not making a field goal over the final 5:47, going 0 for 8.

These upstart Rebels (25-8) advance to the Seattle Regional semifinal next weekend, while Tara VanDerveer’s Stanford team (29-6) is eliminated far earlier than this group envisioned – the season ending on the Cardinal’s home floor. Jones fought tears after her final game, finishing with 16 points and eight rebounds but five turnovers.

Only four No. 1 seeds had lost before the Sweet 16 since 1994, with Duke the last one in 2009. Stanford did so once before, falling to 16th-seeded Harvard in the first round of the 1998 tournament.

The Cardinal had reached 14 straight Sweet 16s and hadn’t lost in the first or second rounds since No. 10 seed Florida State shocked the fifth-seeded Cardinal 68-61 at Maples Pavilion in the second round exactly 16 years ago to the day before on March 19, 2007.

Cameron Brink came back from a one-game absence because of a stomach bug to finish with 20 points, 13 rebounds and seven blocked shots, but Stanford never led and tried to come from behind all night. The program’s career blocks leader, she finished with 118 on the season and has 297 total.

Stanford had won 21 consecutive NCAA games on its home floor and is 41-5 all-time at Maples during March Madness.

Ole Miss led the entire first half on the way to a 29-20 lead at the break at raucous Maples Pavilion, where the crowd went wild when Brink blocked three straight shots in the same sequence by Rita Igbokwe midway through the second quarter. About two minutes later, Igbokwe grabbed at her mouth after being hit.

The Rebels got a scare when senior guard Myah Taylor went down hard grabbing at her chest with 6:41 left in the third after colliding with Francesca Belibi while moving to defend Indya Nivar. After a short break to catch her breath, Taylor was back running the point.

The fourth-best team in the Southeastern Conference and runner-up in the conference tournament to No. 1 South Carolina, Ole Miss has regularly faced bigger teams and physical tests.

The Rebels declared from Day 1 in the Bay Area they were ready to get defensive to make their mark on the NCAA Tournament. Stanford’s layups regularly rolled out. The Cardinal got called for repeated offensive fouls.

BIG PICTURE Ole Miss: Proud parents Gladstone and Daisy cheered on fifth-year coach McPhee-McCuin as her team reached the second round after last year’s first-round exit by South Dakota. Her daughters, 10-year-old Yasmine and Yuri, 5, rooted the team all the way, with Yasmine yelling, “That’s my mom!” when Ole Miss came out before tipoff. … The Rebels advanced to the Elite Eight in 2007. After grabbing 24 offensive rebounds in the win against Gonzaga, the Rebels crashed the boards again to create second chances with 20 more.

Stanford: The Cardinal also never led in the first half of 55-46 loss at USC on Jan. 15. … They had a 14-game home winning streak since a 76-71 overtime loss to No. 1 South Carolina on Nov. 20.