Best Bets: Point spreads, betting lines, picks for Friday’s college hoops action

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Gambling is now legal in the United States, and not just in the state of Nevada.

So with that in mind, and with a full weekend of college basketball in front of us, let’s preview the games on the docket this weekend with an eye on spreads and over-unders.

Let’s get rich!



No. 25 WASHINGTON at No. 11 AUBURN, 9:30 p.m.

  • Line: Auburn (-8.5)
  • O/U: 150.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: Auburn 79.5, Washington 71
  • KenPom Projection: Auburn 81, Washington 72

This is easily the most interesting game of the weekend, as a Washington team that struggled to put away Western Kentucky at home on opening night — they trailed by nine at the half before winning by 18, although that had a lot to do with foul trouble — treks down to Auburn in a matchup between the potential Pac-12 champ and the potential SEC champ.

Auburn is the reigning SEC champion. They opened their season on Tuesday with a resounding thumping of South Alabama. Anfernee McLemore and Chuma Okeke looked terrific, Jared Harper played like the best point guard in the SEC and Bryce Brown made a handful of threes before that one came to an end. As a team, Auburn made 18 threes, and will likely have the chance to shoot even more tonight against Washington’s 2-3 zone.

The Huskies are better than what the projections have them at right now. Remember, this is a team that returns everyone from last season, including a now-sophomore Jaylen Nowell, and that will have another year of added experience playing the zone that head coach Mike Hopkins spent two decades learning as an assistant at Syracuse.

For my money, the key here is going to be what happens up front. Chuma Okeke and Anfernee McLemore don’t get any of the attention when discussing this Auburn team, but McLemore was quietly the most important piece for the Tigers last season while Okeke was sensational in the opener this year. Both can make threes and space the floor, both — particularly McLemore — can protect the rim and they bring a level of energy that is difficult for anyone to match. Their ability to stretch that Washington zone will create problems for the Huskies.

But they are also going to have their hands full with Noah Dickerson defensively. Dickerson is one of the strongest post players in all of college basketball, and as an undersized big man, he’s used to dealing with shot-blockers around him. He gets fouled as much as anyone in the country and has 30 pounds on Okeke and McLemore. There’s a very real chance he gets them on bench for extended minutes.

PICKS: Washington (+8.5) and the over. Washington is really, really good. They beat a good Western Kentucky team by 18 points on Tuesday night despite trailing by nine at the half. They can defend, and contrary to popular belief, it’s not necessarily easier to shoot threes against a zone, not when a zone is played well. If anything, Auburn is more likely to beat up Washington with second chance points than they are with the three-ball.

I see this being a close game, as I think the metrics this early in the season are still undervaluing Washington. Washington (+8.5) seems like the easy bet here. I also think the over is very much in play. Auburn played at the 18th-fastest pace in college basketball last season, but Washington played just as fast offensively; in fact, they had a lower average offensive possession length than auburn did. The reason Washington’s pace was slower was because it takes teams a while to work through their zone, and long offensive possessions is not exactly what Auburn is known for.

(NOTE: Since writing this, the line has moved to Washington (+10.5), which makes me like it even more.)

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS at No. 2 KENTUCKY, 7:00 p.m.

  • Line: Kentucky (-17)
  • O/U: 148.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: Kentucky 82.75, Southern Illinois 65.75
  • KenPom Projection: Kentucky 82, Southern Illinois 68

Southern Illinois is good this year. They are right there with Loyola-Chicago and Illinois State as the early favorites in the Missouri Valley. They are coming off of a season where they won 21 games and went 11-7 in the league and they bring back five starters from last season, four of whom will be seniors this year. The Salukis actually rank in KenPom’s top 100 right now.

So Kentucky is going to have a tough, veteran opponent on their hands. This is the kind of game that John Calipari’s teams have struggled with over the years. Last season, three of their first four buy games were decided by 10 points or less, and the Wildcats very nearly lost at home to Vermont. That Kentucky (-17) line is a lot of points — the spread is three points higher than KenPom’s projected spread, which is the kind of inefficiency we like to capitalize on — but it’s the narrative here that has me rethinking what looks like an obvious bet on paper.

I thought Kentucky was the second-best team in the country entering Tuesday’s embarrassing demolition at the hands of Duke. I was far from alone in that sentiment, and I still think this is a team with a nice blend of youth, talent and experience. So there are two questions you need to answer before you invest any money on this line:

  1. Did Tuesday’s game get out of hand because Kentucky is not as good as we thought they were, or was this a team that got blitzkrieged in a bad matchup and rolled over once they realized — like everyone else on the planet — that the game was over midway through the first half? If you believe that’s the case, then …
  2. … what do you think practice was like for the last two days? John Calipari is a notoriously tough coach. He connects with his guys and he understands the psychology that comes with being a superstar at such a young age, but he holds them accountable and he does it in a way that is not always pleasant to be on the receiving end of. Kentucky is going to want to make a statement tonight.

PICKS: Generally speaking, I think the process play here is to take SIU. Good, veteran mid-major programs can create some problems for young Kentucky teams even when the games are played in Rupp. But I’m going to try to avoid overreacting to one game, trust that my sense of this Kentucky team entering the season was correct and assume that one of the nation’s elite teams is going to come out on Friday night and remind everyone that they are, in fact, one of the nation’s elite teams. Kentucky (-17) is where my money will be.

WICHITA STATE vs. PROVIDENCE (Annapolis), 6:00 p.m.

  • Line: Providence (-4.5)
  • O/U: 139.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: Providence 72, Wichita State 67.5
  • KenPom Projection: Providence 74, Wichita State 71

Wichita State is not very good this season. They return just 11% of their minutes from last year, and that’s more or less because Markis McDuffie returned to school. In a season-opening, 13-point home loss to Louisiana Tech, McDuffie finished with eight points on 3-for-11 shooting.

It’s a rebuilding year in Wichita, and it doesn’t look like the books have caught up to that yet. It’s also worth pointing out that not only is Providence being underrated this season, that 10-point home win against Siena doesn’t look quite as bad after the Saints went into D.C. and picked off George Washington. Alpha Diallo is underrated, Ed Cooley is underrated, A.J. Reeves had the best freshman performance this side of Zion Williamson and Emmitt Holt still hasn’t fully worked his way back into shape.

PICKS: Providence (-4.5) seems too low. I think the Friars can win this by double-digits.

No. 8 NORTH CAROLINA at ELON, 7:00 p.m.

  • Line: North Carolina (-17)
  • O/U: 148
  • Vegas Implied Score: North Carolina 82.5, Elon 65.5
  • KenPom Projection: North Carolina 85, Elon 67

North Carolina is playing their second straight road game to start the season. They struggled at Wofford in the opener but still managed to pull out a win (and a cover!), and on Friday night, their opponent won’t be as tough as Tuesday. Throw in the fact that this will be the second game for Coby White, and I like the Tar Heels here.

PICKS: North Carolina (-17)

BUFFALO at No. 13 WEST VIRGINIA, 9:00 p.m.

  • Line: West Virginia (-10)
  • O/U: 156.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: West Virginia 83.25, Buffalo 73.25
  • KenPom Projection: West Virginia 83, Buffalo 71

Buffalo is one of the best mid-major teams in college basketball this season. They bring back four starters from a team that upset Arizona in the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament, but going into Morgantown and coming out with anything other than a series of bumps and bruises is tough.

The Mountaineers are a tough team to project this season. On the one hand, Press Virginia is going to suffer without Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles pacing them. On the other hand, WVU should be a better team on the offensive end of the floor without those two playing varying degrees of hero-ball. Throw in Esa Ahmad spending a full year on the roster and Lamont West coming into his own, and I think the bet here is the Mountaineers.

PICKS: West Virginia (-10), and that’s because Morgantown is a nightmare to play in and Buffalo did lose last year’s starting point guard. The line looks like it is already starting to move that way.

MISSOURI at IOWA STATE, 7:00 p.m.

  • Line: Iowa State (-8)
  • O/U: 142
  • Vegas Implied Score: Iowa State 75, Missouri 67
  • KenPom Projection: Iowa State 76, Missouri 67

This is going to sound weird, but Missouri is playing without star center Jontay Porter is actually going to be the healthier team here. Cameron Lard is suspended. So is Zoran Talley. Solomon Young strained his groin. Talen Horton-Tucker missed time in the opener with cramping issues. Lindell Wigginton hurt his heel. There’s a real chance that, going up against a frontcourt that includes Jeremiah Tilmon and Kevin Puryer, that the Cyclones are going to have to play their best point guard, Nick Weiler-Babb, at the five.

Yikes.

PICKS: I got in at Missouri (+8), but the line is moving quickly in some places. Get on it as soon as possible.

San Diego State muscles past Creighton, makes 1st Final Four

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Darrion Trammell converted a go-ahead free throw after he was fouled on a floater with 1.2 seconds left, and San Diego State muscled its way into its first Final Four, grinding out a 57-56 victory over Creighton on Sunday in the NCAA Tournament’s South Region final.

Lamont Butler scored 18 points and Trammell had 12 for the fifth-seeded Aztecs (31-6), who slowed down the high-scoring, sixth-seeded Bluejays (24-13) and became the first Mountain West Conference team to reach the national semifinals.

The experienced Aztecs, in their sixth season under coach Brian Dutcher, will play the surprising East Region champion, ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic, on Saturday in Houston for a spot in the national title game.

With the game tied at 56-all on San Diego State’s final possession, Trammell drove toward the free-throw line, elevated for the shot and was fouled by Creighton’s Ryan Nembhard. Trammell missed the first free throw but converted the second.

Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman threw the ensuing inbound pass the length of the floor. San Diego State’s Aguek Arop and Creighton’s Arthur Kaluma both jumped for it and the ball deflected out of bounds. Officials reviewed the play and determined that time had expired, and the celebration was on for the Aztecs.

Scheierman had tied the game at 56-all when he stole an inbounds pass and converted a layup with 34 seconds remaining.

Ryan Kalkbrenner scored 17 points and Scheierman and Arthur Kaluma had 12 apiece for the Bluejays, who went 2 of 17 from 3-point range.

The Aztecs, who got this far thanks to defense and physical play, held the Bluejays to 23 second-half points on 28% shooting. Creighton shot 40% overall.

San Diego State shot 38% but got clutch baskets from Nathan Mensah, whose jumper gave the Aztecs a 56-54 lead with 1:37 left, and Arop, who made two straight shots to put San Diego State ahead 54-50 with 3:03 remaining.

Creighton, which beat San Diego State in overtime in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, fell just short of joining Big East rival UConn in the Final Four.

Kaluma played against his brother, San Diego State’s Adam Seiko. Their parents sat a few rows up at midcourt, sitting quietly before joining Seiko to celebrate.

UConn routs Gonzaga 82-54 for first Final Four in 9 years

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LAS VEGAS — Jordan Hawkins scored 20 points and UConn overwhelmed its fourth straight NCAA Tournament opponent, earning its first trip to the Final Four in nine years with an 82-54 blowout of Gonzaga on Saturday night.

The Huskies (29-8) have felt right at home in their first extended March Madness run since winning the 2014 national championship, playing their best basketball of what had been an up-and-down season.

“The Big East Conference is the best conference in the country, so we went through some struggles,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said. “But once we got out of that league and started playing nonconference teams again, we’ve been back to that team that looked like the best team in the country.”

UConn controlled the usually efficient Bulldogs at both ends in the West Region final, building a 23-point lead early in the second half to waltz right into the final section of the bracket.

The Huskies’ two NCAA Tournament first-round exits under Hurley are now well in the rearview mirror.

“If you’re playing for him, you’ve got to play up to that standard or else you’re not going to be out there,” UConn guard Andre Jackson Jr. said.

These elite Huskies did what the UConn women couldn’t for once and are headed to Houston, where they will play either Texas or Miami.

The Bulldogs (31-6) didn’t have the same second-half magic they had in a last-second win over UCLA in the Elite Eight.

Gonzaga allowed UConn to go on a late run to lead by seven at halftime and fell completely apart after All-American Drew Timme went to the bench with his fourth foul early in the second half.

The Zags shot 33% from the field – 7 of 29 in the second half – and went 2 for 20 from 3 to stumble in their bid for a third Final Four since 2017.

Timme had 12 points and 10 rebounds, receiving a warm ovation after being taken out of his final collegiate game with 1:50 left.

Alex Karaban scored 12 points and Adama Sanogo had 10 points and 10 rebounds for UConn.

The Zags started off like they had a Vegas hangover, firing off two air-balled 3-pointers and a wild runner by Timme. Once Gonzaga shook out the cobwebs, the Bulldogs kept the Huskies bridled with defense, with hard hedges on screens and Timme sagging off Jackson to protect the lane.

UConn countered by getting the ball into the strong hands of Sanogo, the facilitator. The UConn big man picked apart Gonzaga’s double-teams for five first-half assists, including two for layups. Karaban hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to put the Huskies up 39-32 at halftime.

It got worse for Gonzaga to start the second half.

UConn pushed the lead to 12 and Timme picked up his third and fourth fouls in the opening 2 1/2 minutes – one on a charge, another on a box-out under the rim.

The Huskies really got rolling when Timme took a seat, using their defense to get out in transition and set up 3-pointers. A 14-3 run put UConn up 60-37 and Gonzaga coach Mark Few took the calculated gamble of bringing Timme back in.

It made little difference.

UConn kept up the pressure and kept making shots, blowing out yet another opponent and looking an awful lot like the favorite to win it all.

UConn’s Final Four streak ends with 73-61 loss to Ohio State

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SEATTLE — UConn’s record Final Four run is over, thanks to a monumental performance by Ohio State.

The Buckeyes ended UConn’s unprecedented streak of reaching 14 consecutive Final Fours, beating the Huskies 73-61 on Saturday in the Sweet 16 of the women’s NCAA Tournament.

“The problem with streaks is the longer they go, you’re closer to it ending than you are to the beginning of it,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said. “It’s just a matter of time. I mean, it’s not if it’s going to happen. It’s just a matter of time when it’s going to happen. And it was going to happen sooner rather than later.”

Cotie McMahon scored 23 points for the Buckeyes, who snapped their three-decade Elite Eight drought. The Buckeyes hadn’t made a regional final since 1993, when they eventually lost in the title game to Texas Tech.

“When I had the opportunity to come to Ohio State, this was certainly the goal and the vision to go farther than they have been going,” said coach Kevin McGuff, who had never beaten UConn. “It’s not easy to get here, obviously. But I’m really proud of our team and our program of how we’ve evolved to be able to get to this point.

“Like I said, I mean, I have so much respect for Geno and his staff and all that they have accomplished. So for us to be able to win this game in the Sweet 16 is obviously extremely significant. They’re just hard to beat. They’re so well-coached. So this is a great win for us.”

The third-seeded Buckeyes (28-7) forced No. 2 seed UConn (31-6) into 25 turnovers, ending the Huskies’ season before the national semifinals for the first time in 14 seasons. UConn hadn’t been eliminated this early since 2006.

“It’s an impossibility to do what we have done already,” Auriemma said. “What’s the next highest streak? … And you take that in stride and you say, yeah, it was great while it lasted and it’s a credit to all the players that we had and all the times that you have to perform really, really well at this level.”

Ohio State will play Virginia Tech on Monday night in the Seattle 3 Region final with a trip to Dallas at stake. The Hokies beat Tennessee 73-64.

Ohio State, which had to rally from a double-digit deficit in the first round against James Madison, used full-court pressure to disrupt the Huskies’ offense.

“Our press is what we rely on, and sticking together and talking through it,” said Ohio State’s Jacy Sheldon, who had 17 points and went 10-for-10 from the foul line. “We knew UConn was going to be ready for us, so we knew we were going to have to stay consistent throughout the game.”

This has been the most trying year of Auriemma’s Hall of Fame career. UConn was beset by injuries and illnesses to both players and coaches, including a torn ACL that sidelined star Paige Bueckers all season. It got so bad the Huskies had to postpone a game when they didn’t have enough scholarship players. They also saw their unbelievable run of 30 years without consecutive losses come to an end.

“We picked the worst day to actually be doing the things that we’ve been struggling with all year long,” Auriemma said in a sideline interview during the game.

Lou Lopez Senechal scored 25 points for the Huskies, Azzi Fudd had 14, and Ohio State transfer Dorka Juhasz finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds.

The Huskies led 17-9 before Ohio State started scoring and turning UConn over with its full-court press. The Buckeyes scored the next 17 points, forcing 11 turnovers during that stretch, which spanned the first and second quarters. UConn had eight turnovers to start the second quarter, leaving Auriemma exasperated on the sideline.

McMahon was converting those turnovers into points for the Buckeyes as the freshman finished the half with 18 points – equaling the number of turnovers the Huskies had in the opening 20 minutes. Ohio State led 36-26 at the break.

This was only the sixth time UConn had trailed by double digits at the half in an NCAA Tournament game, according to ESPN. The Huskies lost all of those.

UConn did a better job of taking care of the ball in the second half and cut the deficit to 44-39 on Senechal’s layup with 3:53 left in the third quarter. Ohio State responded and still led by 10 after three quarters.

The Buckeyes didn’t let the Huskies make any sort of run in the fourth quarter. UConn got within nine with 4:30 left, but McMahon had a three-point play to restore the double-digit lead. The Huskies never threatened after that.

Now the Huskies will start their offseason sooner than any time in the past 17 years.

TIP-INS

This was the first win for Ohio State over UConn in seven tries. The teams’ last meeting was in the 2019-20 regular season. … UConn was a paltry 7-for-15 from the foul line while Ohio State went 22-for-30. … UConn’s season high for turnovers was 27 against Princeton.

THE HOUSE THAT SUE BUILT

The Seattle Regionals are being played in Climate Pledge Arena – home of the Seattle Storm. UConn and Storm great Sue Bird was in the stands, sitting a few rows behind the scorers’ table. She received a loud ovation from the crowd when she was shown midway through the first quarter on the videoboards.

FAMILIAR FOE

Juhasz graduated from Ohio State two years ago and flourished there, earning all-Big Ten honors twice. She came to UConn last year looking for a new challenge and wanting to play for a team that could compete for national championships. She’ll leave without one.

There is a mutual respect between Juhasz and the Buckeyes’ coaching staff.

FAU holds off Nowell and K-State to reach 1st Final Four

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NEW YORK — Alijah Martin, Vlad Goldin and ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic became the first and lowest-seeded team to reach this year’s Final Four as the Owls withstood another huge game by Kansas State’s Markquis Nowell to beat the Wildcats 79-76 on Saturday night.

FAU (35-3), making just its second appearance in the NCAA Tournament, won the East Region at Madison Square Garden and will head to Houston to play the winner of Sunday’s South Region final between Creighton and San Diego State.

In one of the most unpredictable NCAA Tournaments ever – all four No. 1 seeds were out by the Elite Eight – the Owls from Conference USA typified the madness.

“I expect the prognosticators to pick us fifth in the Final Four,” fifth-year FAU coach Dusty May said.

The winningest team in Division I this season had never won an NCAA Tournament game before ripping off four straight, all by single digits, to become the first No. 9 seed to reach the Final Four since Wichita State in 2013 and the third to get that far since seeding began in 1979.

Nowell, the 5-foot-8 native New Yorker, was incredible again at Madison Square Garden, with 30 points, 12 assists and five steals, coming off a Sweet 16 game in which he set the NCAA Tournament record with 19 assists. He didn’t get enough help this time.

Nae’Qwan Tomlin was the only other player in double figures for Kansas State (26-10) with 14 points. Keyontae Johnson, the Wildcats’ leading scorer, fouled out with nine points.

Martin scored 17 points, including a huge 3 down the stretch, the 7-foot-1 Goldin had 14 points and 13 rebounds, and Michael Forrest made four clutch free throws in the final 20 seconds for the Owls, who held steady as the Wildcats made a late push.

Cam Carter made a 3 from the wing with 22.8 seconds left to cut FAU’s lead to 75-74 and Kansas State fouled and sent Forrest to the line with 17.9 seconds left. The senior made both to make it a three-point game.

Nowell found Tomlin inside for a layup with 8.6 seconds left to cut the lead to one again, and again K-State sent Forrest to the line. With 6.9 remaining, he made them both.

With no timeouts left, Nowell rushed down the court, gave up the ball to Ismael Massoud outside the 3-point line, and never got it back. FAU’s Johnell Davis swiped it away and time ran out.

“It was trying to get Ish a shot,” Nowell said. “Coach wanted to Ish to set the screen, and I waved it off because I felt like on the right side of the court, that’s where Ish hits most of his shots. And they closed out hard to him, and he didn’t get his shot off.”

Nowell was named the most outstanding player of the region, but FAU turned out to be the best team. As the Owls built their lead in the final minutes, Kansas State fans who had packed the building became anxiously quiet and the “F-A-U!” chants started to rise.

The Owls rushed the floor to celebrate a historic moment for the school. FAU didn’t even have a basketball program until the late 1980s and has only been in Division I for the last 30 years.

“I’m living the dream right now,” Forrest said.

FAU held up to Tennessee’s bully ball in the Sweet 16 and dropped a 40-point second half on the best defense in the nation to eliminate the Southeastern Conference team.

Against one of the Big 12’s best, FAU dominated the boards, 44-22, and became the first team from C-USA to reach the Final Four since Memphis in 2008.

The Owls aren’t hanging around much longer. They’re moving to the American Athletic Conference next season. But first: a trip to Texas.

Miami coach Jim Larrañaga asks for transparency on NIL deals

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Miami coach Jim Larrañaga wants to know how much money athletes at other schools are making through name, image and likeness deals.

It’s only fair, he said, since no school has had the values of its athletes’ deals publicized more than Miami.

“I think everybody should be transparent,” he said at a news conference Saturday ahead of his team’s NCAA Tournament Midwest Region final aganst Texas. “Why is it hidden behind the curtain? Why? You can go on a website and check out anybody’s salary in the NBA.

“There are a lot of schools that do the same thing we do. We just don’t know about it because it’s not public knowledge. Why not? Why are we afraid of sharing that information?”

Larrañaga said full disclosure is important for competitive reasons and also so the NCAA or Congress can have more information at their disposal when, and if, they bring clarity and uniformity to NIL rules.

Nijel Pack’s two-year, $800,000 contract with Miami booster John Ruiz is the most publicized NIL deal since the NCAA began allowing college athletes to make money off their popularity. ACC player of the year Isaiah Wong’s $100,000 deal with Ruiz also became public knowledge.

Though the terms of twins Haley and Hanna Cavinder’s deals have not been publicized, the two reportedly have made millions of dollars during their time playing women’s basketball at Fresno State and now Miami.

Larrañaga said television networks, shoe companies, universities, athletic directors and coaches make lots of money off college sports and that the athletes deserve a cut.

“I hope they get as many great deals as they can because I think eventually they have to learn how to handle money,” he said. “So at their young age, if they learn it, maybe they’ll find out. I don’t know how many of these guys are spending every cent they get, but I know a lot of NBA guys did that and ended up bankrupt. I think that’s a learning experience. That’s why you’re in college anyway.”

There have been concerns raised that publicizing the amount of money athletes make could cause jealousy and splinter locker rooms.

Larrañaga said NIL hasn’t changed the dynamic, as far as he’s concerned.

“These guys have to get along on the court and off the court,” he said. “If you can’t handle that as a coach, you probably couldn’t handle it when a guy was complaining about playing time or ‘I didn’t get enough shots.’”

Wong disputed a report last year that, upon learning of Pack’s deal, he threatened through his agent to transfer if his NIL deal wasn’t beefed up.

Larrañaga said he’s seen no problems between the two.

“They hit it off day one,” he said. “Why? Because they love playing basketball.”

Jordan Miller vouched for his coach, especially when it comes to Pack’s deal.

“At the end of the day, he’s our teammate, and everybody’s happy for him,” Miller said.

Larrañaga said he couldn’t speculate on whether athletes would be paid as employees of universities some day.

For now, the most important thing is to set firm guidelines for NIL and to make sure athletes are educated about how to manage their money.

“Guys like Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson and LeBron (James), they make life-changing money, life-altering money,” Larrañaga said. “These young kids, they might not get that chance beyond this. So they need an education about it.”