Bracketology: Committee slots Virginia as No. 1 overall seed

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The Selection Committee revealed its initial Top 16 teams (seed list) prior to games tipping on Sunday.  There were no overwhelming surprising, although one could debate the plusses and minuses of the Committee slotting Oklahoma as its final No. 4 seed, in particular.

Their reasoning throughout the Top 16, whether you agree or disagree, was pretty clear: the Committee still values traditional measures such quality wins, strength of schedule, road performance, and an RPI-based demarkation for sorting teams (now using Groups or Quadrants rather than merely Top 50 or Top 100).

That doesn’t mean individual or collective members of the Committee will not use or value other metrics (BPI, SOR, Ken Pom, etc) in the process, but the ole standbys still appear to be actively in place.

As selections were unveiled, Virginia earned the Committee’s No. 1 overall seed, followed by Villanova, Xavier, and Purdue.  Purdue’s overall profile – and its small margins in defeat – kept the Boilermakers on the top line.

That said, we have about a month left, and things can change.  We’ve seen teams make late charges; we’ve seen teams go into late-February swoons.  The bubble is once again deep and includes a hodgepodge of resumes that look eerily similar.  In other words, the race is on.

UPDATED: February 12, 2018

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • NC State vs. UCLA | East Region
  • Kansas State vs. LSU South Region
  • NICHOLLS ST vs. ARK-PINE BLUFF | East Region
  • HARVARD vs. NC A&T | South Region

BRACKET PROJECTION

SOUTH Atlanta               EAST – Boston   
Charlotte Pittsburgh
1) VIRGINIA 1) VILLANOVA
16) HARVARD / NC A&T 16) NICHOLLS ST / ARK-PB
8) Seton Hall 8) Florida State
9) TCU 9) Arkansas
Boise Boise
5) RHODE ISLAND 5) Texas AM
12) MIDDLE TENNESSEE 12) LOUISIANA
4) Tennessee 4) OHIO STATE
13) E. TENNESSEE ST 13) VERMONT
Detroit Dallas
6) Miami-FL 6) Florida
11) Kansas St / LSU 11) NC State / UCLA
3) Michigan State 3) Texas Tech
14) CHARLESTON 14) RIDER
Pittsburgh Charlotte
7) Kentucky 7) Alabama
10) Washington 10) Butler
2) CINCINNATI 2) Duke
15) FL GULF COAST 15) BUCKNELL
WEST – Los Angeles MIDWEST – Omaha
Detroit Nashville
1) Purdue 1) Xavier
16) UNC-ASHEVILLE 16) WAGNER
8) Creighton 8) Michigan
9) NEVADA 9) Virginia Tech
San Diego San Diego
5) West Virginia 5) Gonzaga
12) Louisville 12) LOYOLA-CHI
4) ARIZONA 4) Oklahoma
13) SOUTH DAKOTA ST 13) BELMONT
Wichita Dallas
6) SAINT MARY’S 6) Arizona State
11) NEW MEXICO ST 11) Houston
3) North Carolina 3) Clemson
14) MONTANA 14) BUFFALO
Wichita Nashville
7) Missouri 7) Wichita State
10) Providence 10) Texas
2) KANSAS 2) AUBURN
15) UC-SANTA BARBARA 15) NO KENTUCKY

NOTES on the BRACKET: Virginia is the No. 1 overall seed – followed by Villanova, Xavier, and Purdue

Last Four Byes (at large): Providence, Washington, Louisville, Houston

Last Four IN (at large): Kansas State, NC State, UCLA, LSU

First Four OUT (at large): Syracuse, USC, St. Bonaventure, Baylor

Next four teams OUT (at large): Oklahoma State, Temple, Marquette, Boise State

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (9): VIRGINIA, Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami-FL, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, NC State

SEC (9): AUBURN, Tennessee, Texas AM, Florida, Kentucky, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU

BIG 12 (7): TEXAS TECH, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU, Texas, Kansas State

Big East (6): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Creighton, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence

Big 10 (4): OHIO STATE, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan

Pac 12 (4): ARIZONA, Arizona State, Washington, UCLA

American (3): CINCINNATI, Wichita State, Houston

West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga

Mountain West (1): NEVADA

Atlantic 10 (1): RHODE ISLAND

ONE BID LEAGUES: Loyola-Chicago (MVC), Rider (MAAC), Middle Tennessee (C-USA), Louisiana (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Montana (BSKY), Northern Kentucky (HORIZON), Nicholls State (SLND), East Tennessee State (STHN), UC-Santa Barbara (BWEST), Buffalo (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), Charleston (CAA), UNC-Asheville (BSO), North Carolina A&T (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Wagner (NEC), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.