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Big Ten Conference Preview: This is Michigan State’s league to lose

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Beginning in September and running up through November 10th, the first day of the regular season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2017-2018 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

Today, we are previewing the Big Ten.

The Big Ten is going to be a fascinating league to watch this season as they have a national title contender in Michigan State and a few teams near the top of the standings who aren’t usually this strong.

Still hoping for a first national championship since 2000, the Big Ten has some unfamiliar faces near the top of the preseason standings.

Minnesota and Northwestern are both among the league’s elite teams after returning nearly full rosters from NCAA tournament teams from last season.

Most of the rest of the league, however, remains a mystery as new head coaches and rosters of new players are a common theme for the league.


MOREThe Enigma of Miles Bridges | NBC Sports Preseason All-American Team
Miles Bridges (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. Michigan State returns almost everyone (including Miles Bridges) and is poised for a title run

Last year saw an up-and-down season from a young-and-depleted Michigan State team that still overachieved and managed to make the NCAA tournament despite starting an abundance of freshmen. This year, with nearly everyone back besides for Eron Harris and Alvin Ellis III, the Spartans are poised for a potential national championship run.

The return of Miles Bridges for his sophomore season was the key to Michigan State being in this current position. The 6-foot-7 Bridges is the consensus Preseason National Player of the Year after a monster freshman season. A lottery pick had he gone into the 2017 NBA Draft, Bridges will likely have dozens of ridiculous plays this season as he remains one of the most exciting players college basketball has seen over the last five seasons.

While Bridges returning was a big key for Sparty’s potential title hopes, Michigan State also returns plenty of solid talent around him. Fellow sophomores Cassius Winston, Joshua Langford and Nick Ward are all back as each of them could take a leap after promising freshman seasons. Langford, in particular, could be poised for a breakout year on the wing now that he is fully healthy. Ward has a chance to be one of the Big Ten’s better bigs and Winston should be more equipped to handling a full time point guard role.

Besides the promising sophomore core, the Spartans are loaded with experienced veteran role players who will play a big part. Senior point guard Tum Tum Nairn should command a healthy amount of minutes in the backcourt as he is one of the more battle-tested lead guards in the nation. Matt McQuaid, a junior shooter, is also back and fully healthy after a down sophomore season.

Michigan State also received a huge lift on the interior as senior Gavin Schilling, a former starter, returns from a season-ending injury while former UNLV transfer Ben Carter was granted an additional year of eligibility by the NCAA. McDonald’s All-American Jaren Jackson Jr. is another huge boost to the Spartans’ frontcourt rotation as he is a potential lottery pick who can space the floor at 6-foot-11.

The Spartans have depth, experience, talent and star power but they’ll have to get more consistent point-guard play to truly reach their ceiling. If Nairn can become a more reliable perimeter shooter and Winston steps up his play then expect Michigan State to be among the nation’s elite this season.

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Nate Mason  (Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

2. Minnesota, Northwestern remain near the top after returning most of their rosters 

Michigan State is the clear favorite in the Big Ten but a solid second tier of teams sits right behind them in the Big Ten pecking order this season.

After a breakout season that saw 24 wins and an NCAA tournament appearance, Minnesota has a chance to take another step forward since they only lose senior Akeem Springs off of last year’s team. All-league point guard Nate Mason is back for his senior season to lead the charge for the Gophers as he is flanked by solid contributors at multiple spots on the floor. Juniors Jordan Murphy and Dupree McBrayer are both returning double-figure scorers while sophomore Amir Coffey could have a huge season if he takes an additional step from a positive freshman season. Shot-blocking menace Reggie Lynch is also back in the middle after setting a school record for blocks and earning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors.

Northwestern is also hoping to take a step forward as most of the core from last season’s Round of 32 squad is back. After finally making the Big Dance for the first time in 2017, expectations are sky-high for the Wildcats. Senior Bryant McIntosh is back handling the point for the Wildcats as the four-year starter is one of the most experienced players in the nation. If McIntosh can regain his perimeter shooting touch then he could finish out a storied career in memorable fashion. Senior shooting guard Scottie Lindsey is also back as he’s one of the Big Ten’s better scorers while junior forward Vic Law is a strong two-way player who provides good athleticism in the frontcourt. Dererk Pardon, a junior big man, could also factor more into the offense this season as his skill level continues to grow.

The major question for both of these teams is how they will deal with being the hunted? Just one year ago, Minnesota head coach Richard Pitino was essentially coaching for his job and Northwestern was still the only power conference school to never make the NCAA Tournament. But after last season’s success, these two teams aren’t sneaking up on anybody anymore.

Both Minnesota and Northwestern have the depth and talent to be consistent top-25 teams all season, but how will they handle this new pressure?

Vince Edwards (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

3. Purdue remains a contender despite the loss of Caleb Swanigan

“Biggie” Swanigan is the most irreplaceable player in the Big Ten. A double-double machine during his sophomore season, the All-American big man has moved on to the NBA after being a dominant force in college basketball last season. Purdue just won’t be the same without him.

But even with Swanigan leaving early for the NBA, Purdue is still in a very strong position to be one of the Big Ten’s best teams. Most of the rest of the roster returns. The frontcourt of seniors Isaac Haas and Vincent Edwards are both very productive and efficient and they are surrounded by plenty of high-caliber shooters. P.J. Thompson and Dakota Mathias are both seniors who have plenty of experience in big-game situations. Junior Ryan Cline is another perimeter threat that the Boilermakers can bring off the bench,

The key for Purdue is going to be the play of sophomore guard Carsen Edwards. A talented shotmaker who can be reckless at times, Edwards has the ability to make a huge impact if he can be more efficient. If Edwards becomes a guard who can create shots for himself and others on a consistent basis then Purdue should still be in strong position to win a few games in the NCAA tournament.

4. Maryland, Michigan and Wisconsin have question marks after valuable losses

Gutted with losses to the NBA Draft, some of the Big Ten’s familiar faces have to replace go-to players with new faces this season. And, unlike Purdue replacing Caleb Swanigan, these teams have plenty of holes to fix.

The past three seasons, Maryland relied heavily on point guard Melo Trimble’s clutch play and ability to create offense. Without Trimble, who left for the the NBA, head coach Mark Turgeon will count on a trio of sophomores this season. Point guard Anthony Cowan assumes the lead-guard responsibilities from Trimble for the Terps after playing plenty off the ball last season. Shooting guard Kevin Huerter is a noted perimeter scorer who is coming off of an appearance this summer for the USA Basketball U19 team. Forward Justin Jackson could be the difference in Maryland being a contender or a normal team. The 6-foot-7 Jackson showed that he could be one of the Big Ten’s best players last season during certain games but he also faltered down the stretch and has to complete a full season of being a productive player. If Maryland gets strong production from the sophomores, they have enough depth at other positions to still be among the league’s best teams.

After peaking at the right time last season, Michigan has to replace point guard Derrick Walton Jr. and big man D.J. Wilson. Walton is going to be tough to replace but Michigan is hoping that a combination of graduate transfer Jaaron Simmons and sophomore Zavier Simpson can do the trick. Simmons has been one of the MAC’s best players the past few seasons and Simpson is a former top-100 recruit, so there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that the Wolverines will still get solid guard play. Replacing Wilson might be harder. While junior forward Mo Wagner is back as one of the league’s more unique offensive threats, Wilson’s defensive presence will surely be missed by the Wolverines.

And what do we make of Wisconsin? Head coach Greg Gard inherited an experienced and talented roster from predecessor Bo Ryan. Unfortunately, Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig, Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown all exhausted their eligibilities as Ethan Happ is the team’s only returning double-figure scorer. This is a huge test for the Badgers and Gard. It was always a minimum expectation of Bo Ryan and Wisconsin to at least make the NCAA tournament, regardless of who was on the roster. The Badgers are the only team in the country to make the Sweet 16 six of the last seven seasons. If Gard can make it work and bring Wisconsin back to the NCAAs then he’s definitely the heir apparent to his former boss. But Wisconsin will have to clear up an uncertain backcourt situation while playing a lot of unproven big men along with Happ.

5. There are new coaches to watch at Illinois, Indiana and Ohio State

Some of the classic Big Ten programs are going to have new coaches at the helm this season.

Taking over at Illinois, former Oklahoma State head coach Brad Underwood has had a tremendous amount of success at Stephen F. Austin and with the Cowboys as he led both programs to NCAA tournament appearances in his first year on the job. That is unlikely to happen at Illinois this season but Underwood’s track record gives them a puncher’s chance. Replacing senior scorer Malcolm Hill will be next to impossible but the Illini have some strong young pieces like freshman guards Mark Smith and Trent Frazier.

Indiana finally made a move to replace Tom Crean as former Dayton head coach Archie Miller is the new architect. The Hoosiers don’t have a lot of proven returning players but Miller is also a coach who is used to doing more with less. Remember, Miller once took Dayton to the NCAA Tournament with six scholarship players at the start of a conference season, so he’s done some ridiculous coaching in the past. Senior guard Robert Johnson will be expected to score at a high level and Miller has already made a positive impression on the recruiting trail with his first two groups.

Things get slightly tougher at Ohio State as Chris Holtmann replaced Thad Matta in the middle of June. The Buckeyes have some solid veterans in Jae’Sean Tate, Kam Williams and Keita Bates-Diop but most of the rest of the roster has been gutted following Matta’s departure. Thankfully for the Buckeyes, Holtmann has already landed plenty of positive recruits for next season, and it wouldn’t surprise many people if Ohio State exceeded expectations with its current roster.


Brad Underwood (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

MORE: 2017-18 Season Preview Coverage | Conference Previews | Preview Schedule

PRESEASON BIG TEN PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Miles Bridges, Michigan State

Just enjoy this while it lasts. Bypassing a potential spot in the NBA Draft lottery, the explosive 6-foot-7 Bridges gets a chance to play more on the wing this season now that Michigan State is healthy on the interior. If Bridges can prove that he’s just as talented playing on the wing, then he could elevate into a top three pick.

THE REST OF THE BIG TEN FIRST TEAM:

  • Ethan Happ, Wisconsin: The redshirt junior big man is hoping to expand his range after being strictly an interior scorer his first two seasons. Happ remains one of the league’s best defenders and rebounders.
  • Nate Mason, Minnesota: Outstanding during his junior season (15.2 pts, 5.0 ast, 3.6 reb) if Mason can improve his 37 percent shooting then he’ll be one of the nation’s best floor generals.
  • Vincent Edwards, Purdue: Overshadowed by Caleb Swanigan the past two years, this senior forward could have a breakout year after quietly putting up 12.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game last season.
  • Bryant McIntosh, Northwestern: Poised to shatter the Northwestern career assists record, the senior point guard could have a huge year if his perimeter jumper returns to form.

FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW:

  • Moritz Wagner, Michigan
  • Justin Jackson, Maryland
  • Tyler Cook, Iowa
  • Vic Law, Northwestern
  • Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State

BREAKOUT STARJustin Jackson, Maryland

Maryland needs to find a new go-to player now that Melo Trimble has moved on to the pros and this 6-foot-7 sophomore could be in line for a lot more production. Capable of playing on the wing or as a stretch-4, Jackson put up some monster double-doubles as a freshman in the middle of Big Ten play last season, but his play faltered down the stretch. If Jackson can become more consistent on the offensive end, he also should be a menace on the defensive end while contributing on the glass. A big year for Jackson could mean a huge leap up NBA Draft boards.

Justin Jackson (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Tim Miles, Nebraska

At one point a few seasons ago, Nebraska looked like it was on the verge of becoming a perennial postseason contender. Nebraska made the NCAA tournament in 2013-14, Miles was the Big Ten Coach of the Year and the Huskers had the tremendous home-court advantage at the sold-out Pinnacle Bank Arena. While the Nebraska fanbase is still one of best in the nation, the Huskers have struggled to three consecutive losing seasons as they have finished 11th or 12th in the Big Ten the past three seasons. With many predicting Nebraska to once again be among the Big Ten’s worst teams this preseason, can Miles win enough to keep his job safe?

ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING …

Michigan State has a great chance to be the Big Ten’s first national champion since 2000.

I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT

I’m most excited to get another year of Miles Bridges. This wasn’t supposed to happen. And now that the lottery pick is back for his sophomore season, I’m expecting some ridiculous dunks for a fun-to-watch national title contender.

FIVE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES TO CIRCLE ON YOUR CALENDAR:

  • 11/13, Minnesota at Providence
  • 11/14, Michigan State vs. Duke, Champions Classic (Chicago)
  • 11/28, Louisville at Purdue, ACC-Big Ten Challenge
  • 11/29, Miami at Minnesota, ACC-Big Ten Challenge
  • 11/30, Notre Dame at Michigan State, ACC-Big Ten Challenge

ONE TWITTER FEED TO FOLLOW: @BigTenNetwork

POWER RANKINGS

1. Michigan State: The Spartans have it all as they are clearly the class of the Big Ten. Having a Player of the Year favorite, a lot of depth and talent is a major plus for Michigan State but they also have the pressure of trying to win the national title this season.
2. Purdue: Losing Caleb Swanigan will hurt but this Boilermaker team is still capable of winning a lot of games. The key could be the play of sophomore guard Carsen Edwards. If Edwards can improve his shot selection and run a more efficient offense then he brings a new offensive dimension for Purdue.
3. Minnesota: Returning nearly everyone from last season’s surprise NCAA Tournament team, the Gophers have strong guard play (Nate Mason), capable wing scorers (Amir Coffey, Dupree McBrayer) and an experienced rim protector (Reggie Lynch). If this team can add some quality depth at guard then they don’t have many holes and could be in line for a Sweet 16 run.
4. Northwestern: Now that Northwestern has finally made the Big Dance, they can focus on returning and advancing even further. The core of Bryant McIntosh, Scottie Lindsey, Vic Law and Dererk Pardon are all back while the Wildcat bench should be improved over last season.
5. Michigan: Head coach John Beilein has plenty of weapons, but he also returns only two players who started more than three games for the Wolverines last season. Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews could be a big difference as he’s the type of two-way wing that Michigan needs right away.
6. Maryland: Melo Trimble is finally gone. But Mark Turgeon has a strong sophomore class and an intriguing group of upperclass vets. If big man Michal Cekovsky and guard Dion Wiley can stay healthy and productive then Maryland can finish much higher than this.
7. Wisconsin: This season’s Badgers will be a major test to see if Greg Gard can make Wisconsin a perennial NCAA Tournament contender like Bo Ryan did. Having Ethan Happ back helps, but Gard is going to have questions at almost every other position. Point guard play could be critical for Wisconsin.
8. Iowa: Replacing Peter Jok is going to be difficult but the Hawkeyes still return nine players who averaged at lease 12 minutes per game last season. Somebody has to step up and replace Jok’s scoring, but Iowa has the depth and experience to make it back to the NCAA Tournament.
9. Illinois: The frontcourt features loads of questions and the backcourt is young but Illinois is not going to be an easy out this season. The key will be junior forwards Leron Black and Michael Finke. If both can be productive then the Illini have a chance to surprise.
10. Indiana: Robert Johnson is the team’s only known threat but there are plenty of former top-100 recruits on the roster. Junior forward Juwan Morgan has shown some positive flashes while senior point guard Josh Newkirk has seen plenty of minutes during his college career.
11. Penn State: There is plenty of young talent to get excited about at Penn State but they need to make a leap up the league standings this season. Guards Tony Carr and Shep Garner can both score while forward Lamar Stevens had a very productive freshman season. If Penn State can improve in tight games, they could be a surprise.
12. Ohio State: The Chris Holtmann era begins with a depleted roster and the hope that upperclass leaders can still be effective. Although the Buckeyes are down a few scholarship players, senior guards Jae’Sean Tate and Kam Williams and junior forward Keita Bates-Diop are all capable Big Ten players.
13. Nebraska: The Huskers have hovered near the bottom of the Big Ten standings the past three years and this year looks no different. Junior point guard Glynn Watson Jr. is a promising returner but most of the rest of Nebraska’s roster features inconsistent veterans and unproven young players.
14. Rutgers: Steve Pikiell did a great job of improving the Rutgers defense in year one but a massive talent overhaul is still necessary. The backcourt tandem of Corey Sanders and Mike Williams is solid while senior forward Deshawn Freeman is a double-double threat. The rest of the roster has major questions marks.

Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation

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It’s that time of the year again, which means that we are diving head first into our annual NCAA tournament bubble watch.

The way that it will work is simple: We’ll be looking at every team that our Dave Ommen, the best bracketologist in the business, considers in the mix for an at-large bid. In an effort to keep this somewhat manageable, we are going to assume that the top 36 teams in the field — every team that is a No. 9-seed or above — is “off the bubble”. This does not mean those teams are a lock to dance, it just means that they have given themselves enough room for error that we can take them out of the conversation until they do something dumb.

Dave’s latest bracket can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.

So with all that in mind, let’s get into the full NCAA tournament bubble watch:



ACC BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Duke (NBC: 2), Florida State (NBC: 2), Louisville (NBC: 3)

VIRGINIA (NET: 50, NBC: 9): Virginia won for the fourth straight time on Saturday, knocking off Pitt (100) on the road. They only have three Quad 1 wins and a 9-6 mark against the top two Quads with home dates left against Duke (6) and Louisville (8). They can’t afford slip-ups, and could really use three or four more wins before Selection Sunday. But Virginia is starting to play much better, and as of today they are in a pretty good spot to get to the tournament.

N.C. STATE (NET: 53, NBC: 10): The Wolfpack fell to 17-11 on the season as North Carolina (96) finished off a season sweep with an 85-79 win in Chapel Hill. N.C. State has a weird resume. They are the proud owners of three Quad 3 losses as well as four more losses to sub-70 teams on the road. That’s not good. But they beat Duke (6) by 22 points in Raleigh, which is just one of their five Quad 1 wins. They are 9-8 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents on the season. It’s worth noting that Markell Johnson, N.C. State’s best player, did not play in one of the three Quad 3 losses — Georgia Tech (79) — so that will be something to monitor for the Selection Committee.


AMERICAN BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Houston (NBC: 9)

WICHITA STATE (NET: 43, NBC: Play-in game): Wichita State saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday afternoon, losing by three at Cincinnati (53). They have beaten VCU (57) and Oklahoma (54) at home, and they don’t have any truly terrible losses, but with just one potential Quad 1 games left on their schedule — all of which are on the road — and without a top 50 win on the season, I think the Shockers are going to have an uncomfortable Selection Sunday. The fact that they are 8-7 against the top two Quads without a bad loss is something of a saving grace at this point.

MEMPHIS (NET: 61, NBC: First four out): Memphis is hanging on by a thread right now, and losing at SMU (86) on Tuesday night is certainly not going to help anything. They are still alive after landed a critical win over Houston (24) at home over the weekend, but Memphis still only has a pair of Quad 1 wins compared to three Quad 3 losses. Memphis is also playing with D.J. Jeffries right now, which complicates matters as well. They end their season like this: at Tulane (174), Wichita State (44), at Houston (24). I think they need to win all three at this point.

CINCINNATI (NET: 53, NBC: 11): The Bearcats shot themselves in the foot on Wednesday, losing at home to UCF (125). They bounced back and beat Wichita State (43) at home on Saturday, which gives Cincinnati an eighth win over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. As of this very moment, Cincinnati has just two Quad 1 wins and four Quad 3 losses, all of which came to teams sitting outside the top 100. They’re in a bad spot right now, and with just one more potential Quad 1 win on their resume, I’m not sure just how much they’ll be able to do to fix it. Beating Houston (25) on the road next Sunday has become a must-win.


ATLANTIC 10 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Dayton (NBC: 2)

RHODE ISLAND (NET: 36, NBC: 10): The Rams did not help themselves by losing at Davidson (76) on Saturday, which isn’t a killer but is a Quad 2 loss. They’re now 19-7 overall with just one Quad 1 win, but they are 6-6 against the top two Quads. The loss to Brown (218) is ugly, but as long as URI avoids the landmines on their schedule, I think they can get an at-large even with a loss to Dayton (5) at home in March.

RICHMOND (NET: 48, NBC: First four out): Richmond had their five-game winning streak snapped on the road against St. Bonaventure, which is not a bad loss in real life but is a bad loss on an NCAA tournament resume. The Spiders only have one truly terrible loss to their name — Radford (162) got them on a neutral court — but they only have two Quad 1 wins and a 4-6 record against the top two Quads. Their margin for error is completely gone.


BIG 12 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Baylor (NBC: 1), Kansas (NBC: 1), West Virginia (NBC: 6), Texas Tech (NBC: 8)

OKLAHOMA (NET: 55, NBC: Play-in game): The biggest winner of the night was, without question, Oklahoma. The Sooners picked up their fourth Quad 1 win of the season with an impressive, 65-51 win over Texas Tech (15). It snaps a three-game losing streak that had dropped Oklahoma to 17-11 on the season and sets them up for a massive trip to West Virginia (17) on Saturday, who they beat at home earlier this month. They are now 17-11 on the season and are sitting with a 4-9 record against the top Quad and nine total wins against the top two Quads. It’s also worth noting they only have two road wins on the season — at Texas (66) and at North Texas (92).

TEXAS (NET: 66, NBC: Off the bubble): The Longhorns won their third straight game on Monday night, as they beat No. 20 West Virginia (17) despite playing without Jericho Sims, Gerald Liddell and Jase Febres. Suddenly, a team that we had all written off is right back in the mix, as the Mountaineers are a top 20 team in the NET and the kind of elite win that Texas was sorely lacking on their resume. As it stands, the Longhorns are sitting at 17-11 overall and 7-8 in the Big 12. They have three Quad 1 wins, Monday night’s win as well as roadies at Purdue (36) and Oklahoma State (69), and a 5-11 mark against the top two Quads without a bad loss to their name. Saturday’s trip to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech (15) is going to be the make or break game. It’s not a win-and-you’re-win type deal, but I do think that taking a loss to the Red Raiders would mean that the Longhorns will have to beat one of the Big 12’s top four teams in the conference tournament to have a realistic shot at getting to the dance.


BIG EAST BUBBLE WATCH

Top 9: Seton Hall (NBC: 3), Villanova (NBC: 3), Creighton (NBC: 3), Butler (NBC: 6), Marquette (NBC: 7)

XAVIER (NET: 43, NBC: 10): The Musketeers shook off a loss to Villanova (12) at home on Saturday by knocking off DePaul (73) on Tuesday night. The best thing about this Xavier team’s resume is that they really have not taken all that many bad losses. Their worst loss of the season came at Wake Forest (109), which is a Quad 2 loss. It’s the only team ranked outside of the top 35 in the NET that Xavier has lost to. They only have three Quad 1 wins — and two of them are at St. John’s (70) and at DePaul (73) — but they do have a win over Seton Hall (17) in Newark, which helps quite a bit. I personally think that Xavier has to do more work that it looks like. They are just 3-9 against Quad 1 opponents, and that could drop to 1-9 if St. John’s and DePaul fall outside the top 75. With games at Georgetown (58), at Providence (48) and Butler (23), they’ll have three more chances to land Quad 1 wins. I think Xavier probably should win two of those to really feel comfortable.

PROVIDENCE (NET: 46, NBC: Play-in game): The Friars are now the official owners of the strangest resume in college basketball. On Friday, Marquette (26) paid a visit to The Dunk and lost. Providence has now won three straight games and have now won five of their last seven. All five of those wins are Quad 1 wins, and they include a road win over Butler (20), home wins against Creighton (11) and Seton Hall (17), and Saturday’s win against Marquette. The Friars now have seven Quad 1 wins. If you only look at wins, Providence is like a five seed.

The problem is the losses. There are 12 of them, and some of them are really, really bad. Providence lost to Charleston (142) and Long Beach State (288) on neutral courts, at Northwestern (164) and to Penn (154) at home. That’s three Quad 3 losses and a Quad 4 loss. It’s wild that the Friars are even in the conversation with all of that garbage on their resume, but they very much are.

GEORGETOWN (NET: 55, NBC: Next four out): This is why Georgetown can’t have nice things. After beating Butler (20) on the road to play themselves onto the right side of the bubble, the Hoyas went out this week and lost to Providence (46) at home and at DePaul (72) on Saturday. They still get Marquette (26) and Creighton (11) on the road, and Villanova (10) at home, so they’re not dead. But they are in a bad spot.


BIG TEN BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Maryland (NBC: 2), Michigan (NBC: 4), Penn State (NBC: 4), Ohio State (NBC: 5), Michigan State (NBC: 5), Iowa (NBC: 6),  Illinois (NBC: 7), Wisconsin (NBC: 7), Indiana (NBC: 8)

RUTGERS (NET: 33, NBC: 10): The Scarlet Knights have one of the weirder resumes on the bubble right now after losing at Wisconsin (30) on Sunday. They’re 17-10 overall and they are 9-8 in a Big Ten that is as deep as any league I can remember. They have three Quad 1 wins, just one Quad 3 loss and a 7-9 mark against the top two Quads. Eight of their ten losses are to Quad 1 opponents. They played a tough non-conference schedule, and they have some really impressive home wins. The problem? They’ve only won a single game outside of the RAC this year, and that came at Nebraska (183), who is more or less the worst team in the Big Ten. Their season finishes like this: at Penn State (24), Maryland (7), at Purdue (37). Rutgers has some work left to do, and I really think winning one of those two road games will be the most important part.

PURDUE (NET: 37, NBC: Off the bubble): After the Boilermakers lost to Michigan (23) at home on Saturday, they are sitting at 14-14 overall and just 7-10 in the Big Ten. They do actually have a pretty strong resume in regards to the number of good wins that they have, but the biggest issue currently facing Purdue is the number of losses, including a Quad 3 loss. The most losses an at-large team has ever had is 15. For context, Indiana last season was 17-15 with six Quad 1 wins and nine Quad 1 and 2 wins and they were left out. Purdue is 5-10 against Quad 1 opponents — three of those five wins vacillate between Quad 1 and Quad 2 — and 7-12 against the top two Quads with a 3-8 record on the road. Their best road win is at Indiana (58). They’re in a tough spot right now.


PAC-12 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Oregon (NBC: 4), Colorado (NBC: 5), Arizona (NBC: 7), Arizona State (NBC: 8)

UCLA (NET: 76, NBC: First four out): The Bruins are making a push to get into the NCAA tournament. On Saturday, they completed a sweet of the mountain schools — the toughest road trip in all of college basketball — and have now won five in a row and nine of their last 11 games. They own a sweep of Colorado (18), they won at Arizona (9) and while they do have a Quad 3 loss — Hofstra (114) — and a Quad 4 loss — Fullerton (261) — the Bruins are now sitting on five Quad 1 wins, three of which came against top 15 teams, two on the road. The metrics don’t love the Bruins, but today’s win will help and if the metrics love Arizona and Colorado this much, it should mean quite a bit that UCLA was able to beat them. Their resume isn’t quite as weird as Providence’s, but both of these teams are going to give the Selection Committee a headache on Selection Sunday.

With games left against Arizona, Arizona State and USC, the Bruins will have the chances to play their way in. It’s wild to think that we’re here after the way the season started, but we are.

USC (NET: 47, NBC: Play-in game): After sweeping the Washington schools in LA two weeks ago, the Trojans turned around and lost at Colorado (18) and Utah (81) last week. Suddenly, they’re in a bit of a bad spot. They only have two Quad 1 wins and are now 8-8 against the top two Quads with an 8-7 mark away from the Galen Center, including five road wins. The home loss to Temple (111) is not ideal, but it is survivable. The biggest issue may be how tough their remaining schedule is. The Trojans still get Arizona (8), Arizona State (41) and UCLA (76), who is a game out of first place in the Pac-12, at home. I think they’re still in a pretty good spot, but it’s not going to be comfortable if they don’t win at least two more games before Selection Sunday.

STANFORD (NET: 31, NBC: First four out): The Cardinal finally snapped their losing streak by going into Seattle and knocking off Washington (65) to pick up their third Quad 1 win of the season. They followed that up by winning at Washington State (121), which is tougher than it has been in the past. They are just 2-5 against Quad 1 opponents, 6-8 against the top two Quads and have a Quad 3 loss — at Cal (142) — to their name. They still get Colorado (12) at home and Oregon (19) on the road, so there will be chances to improve their resume, but the Cardinal will need to capitalize on those to feel good on Selection Sunday.


SEC BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Kentucky (NBC: 4), Auburn (NBC: 5), LSU (NBC: 8), Florida (NBC: 9)

ARKANSAS (NET: 45, NBC: Next four out): The Razorbacks snapped a five-game losing streak on Saturday by beating Missouri (87) at home. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins and a 4-10 mark against the top two Quads, but the more important record is this: They are 16-5 on the season with a healthy Isaiah Joe, who returned to action and scored 21 points on Saturday. It will be very interesting to see how the selection committee handles Arkansas.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (NET: 57, NBC: Next four out): Mississippi State significantly dinged their at-large chances by losing at Texas A&M (117) on Saturday. That’s the third bad loss on their resume, and with a win at Florida (34) and a sweep of Arkansas (45) the only notable accomplishments to date, the Bulldogs find themselves in a tough spot. Saturday’s win against Alabama (40) at home on Tuesday helps, but that’s only a Quad 2 win. The Bulldogs have just Quad 1 wins to date. What’s worse is that they only get one more Quad 1 opportunity in the regular season, and that’s a game at South Carolina (63).

ALABAMA (NET: 40, NBC: Next four out): The Crimson Tide lost on Tuesday, falling at Mississippi State (57) in what was their last opportunity to land a Quad 1 win. They’re now 15-13 overall and while they do have two Quad 1 wins — Auburn (28) and LSU (29) at home — but both of those teams are one loss away from potentially falling out of the Quad 1 range. They also have a pair of Quad 3 home losses. I think the dream is done for Alabama.

SOUTH CAROLINA (NET: 63, NBC: Off the bubble): The Gamecocks had a chance to play themselves into a really good spot on Saturday, but they lost to LSU (29) at home. At 16-11 overall with a Quad 3 and a Quad 4 loss, the Gamecocks have plenty of work left to do and not all that many great chances left for wins. They’re in trouble.


BUBBLE WATCH FOR EVERYONE ELSE

TOP 9: Gonzaga (NBC: 1), San Diego State (NBC: 1), BYU (NBC: 6), Saint Mary’s (NBC: 9)

UTAH STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After wiping the floor with San Jose State (280), the Aggies have won six in a row and nine of their last ten games, ensuring they are still in the NCAA tournament mix and fully turning around a season that looked like it was lost as recently as five weeks ago. Wins over LSU (29) and Florida (33) are nice, but with three road losses to sub-85 teams and no more chances to land marquee wins, how are they going to make up for those losses? They don’t play another top 100 team the rest of the season. I don’t see how they can feel comfortable about getting in without beating San Diego State (5) in the MWC tournament.

NORTHERN IOWA (NET: 46, NBC: 12): Northern Iowa snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday, beating Southern Illinois (139) and maintaining a hold on first place in the Missouri Valley. UNI has a win at Colorado (18) and they beat South Carolina (63) on a neutral court, but they are 5-3 against the top two Quads with a pair of Quad 3 losses. I want to see them get an at-large — every one of their non-Quad 1 losses is a road game in league play — but I’m not sure they have done enough to beat out some of these power conference teams.

EAST TENNESSEE STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After beating Furman (76) on Wednesday night, the Buccaneers have gotten through the toughest part of their schedule. They have a win at UNCG (62) and a win at LSU (30). With a 22-4 record and a loss to Mercer (197) at home, the Buccaneers have to win out and lose to only UNCG or Furman in the SoCon tournament to have a chance, and even that might be a bit of a longshot.

Bracketology: Kansas grabs No. 1 overall seed

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Here is today’s updated NCAA tournament bracketology projection.

Following its win at Baylor, Kansas grabs the No. 1 overall seed in today’s bracket update.  That said, it’s basically semantics. Kansas continues to lead the Midwest Region and Baylor the South Region.  The margin between the two is more of a 1-A and 1-B approach.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was San Diego State losing at home to UNLV.  For now, the Aztecs hold onto their No. 1 seed in the East.  Maryland could have made a strong case had the Terrapins won at Ohio State on Sunday.  Either way, the door is now open for a Big Ten, Big East, or ACC champion to potentially overtake SDSU. Dayton is squarely in the mix, too.

As for the Bubble, the Providence Friars and UCLA Bruins have both recovered from challenging starts to emerge as serious at-large contenders.

Anyway, here is today’s updated NCAA tournament bracketology. If you’re looking for the NBC Sports Bubble Watch, it can be found here.



The latest look at where our NCAA tournament bracketology projection stands …

UPDATED: February 24, 2020

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
MIDWEST REGION Oklahoma vs. USC
SOUTH REGION Providence vs. Wichita State
SOUTH REGION  PR VIEW-AM vs. ST. PETERS
MIDWEST REGION ROBERT MORRIS vs. NC A&T

MIDWEST Indianapolis SOUTH – Houston                    
Omaha St. Louis
1) KANSAS 1) Baylor
16) ROB MORRIS / NC A&T 16) PV-AM / ST. PETERS
8) ARIZONA STATE 8) LSU
9) Florida 9) Saint Mary’s
Sacramento Tampa
5) Auburn 5) Colorado
12) NORTHERN IOWA 12) Providence / Wichita St
4) Michigan 4) Penn State
13) AKRON 13) VERMONT
St. Louis Albany
6) BYU 6) Iowa
11) Oklahoma / USC 11) Utah State
3) Creighton 3) SETON HALL
14) SOUTH DAKOTA ST 14) COLGATE
Greensboro Tampa
7) Wisconsin 7) Marquette
10) Rhode Island 10) Rutgers
2) Duke 2) Florida State
15) BELMONT 15) LITTLE ROCK
EAST – New York WEST – Los Angeles
Sacramento Spokane
1) SAN DIEGO ST 1) GONZAGA
16) RADFORD 16) MONTANA
8) Indiana 8) Texas Tech
9) Virginia 9) Houston
Omaha Spokane
5) Ohio State 5) Michigan State
12) LIBERTY 12) S.F. AUSTIN
4) KENTUCKY 4) Oregon
13) YALE 13) NORTH TEXAS
Albany Cleveland
6) West Virginia 6) Butler
11) EAST TENNESSEE ST 11) CINCINNATI
3) Villanova 3) LOUISVILLE
14) WRIGHT STATE 14) NEW MEXICO ST
Cleveland Tampa
7) Illinois 7) Arizona
10) NC State 10) Xavier
2) DAYTON 2) MARYLAND
15) HOFSTRA 15) UC-IRVINE

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN      First 4 OUT Next 4 OUT
Rutgers Providence Stanford Alabama
NC State Wichita State UCLA Mississippi State
Rhode Island Oklahoma Memphis Arkansas
Utah State USC Richmond Georgetown

Top Seed Line

Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State
Seed List

Breakdown by Conference …

Big Ten (10)
Big East (7)
Pac 12 (5)
Big 12 (5)
SEC (4)
ACC (4)
West Coast (3)
American (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Mountain West (2)

OK, how good are you guys at NCAA tournament bracketology?

Not too bad. Our bracketologist, Dave Ommen, is sitting atop the ranks for the bracket matrix, which cobbles together everyone who does this for a living. So yeah, we’re on our game.

When do conference tournaments begin?

Conference tournaments — when teams can earn automatic berths to the NCAA Tournament — begin on Tuesday, March 3. Most of the league tournaments for that week are mid-major and low-major schools (though those can often be the most exciting games to watch).

There is a full schedule for all 32 conference tournaments here, though check back with us later on for previews for all those tournaments, recaps and highlights from the buzzer-beaters and many dunks for the start of March.

When do Selection Sunday and the NCAA Tournament begin?

Selection Sunday for the 2020 NCAA Tournament is on March 15 (about 4 pm ET), while the games begin a couple days later. The First Four is on March 17 and 18, while the craziness of Round 1 starts on Thursday, March 19.

The Final Four, held in Atlanta this year, starts on Saturday, April 4. The National Title Game is Monday, April 6.

Bubble Banter: Oklahoma lands massive win over No. 22 Texas Tech

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There is plenty of action happening on the bracketology bubble watch despite it being a relatively slow night for college hoops.

Dave Ommen’s latest bracketology can be found here. Rob Dauster’s Bubble Watch can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.

Here is everything you need to know to.

THE BUBBLE WATCH WINNERS

OKLAHOMA (NET: 55, NBC: Play-in game): The biggest winner of the night was, without question, Oklahoma. The Sooners picked up their fourth Quad 1 win of the season with an impressive, 65-51 win over Texas Tech (15). It snaps a three-game losing streak that had dropped Oklahoma to 17-11 on the season and sets them up for a massive trip to West Virginia (17) on Saturday, who they beat at home earlier this month. They are now 17-11 on the season and are sitting with a 4-9 record against the top Quad and nine total wins against the top two Quads. It’s also worth noting they only have two road wins on the season — at Texas (66) and at North Texas (92).

XAVIER (NET: 43, NBC: 10): The Musketeers shook off a loss to Villanova (12) at home on Saturday by knocking off DePaul (73) on Tuesday night. The best thing about this Xavier team’s resume is that they really have not taken all that many bad losses. Their worst loss of the season came at Wake Forest (109), which is a Quad 2 loss. It’s the only team ranked outside of the top 35 in the NET that Xavier has lost to. They only have three Quad 1 wins — and two of them are at St. John’s (70) and at DePaul (73) — but they do have a win over Seton Hall (17) in Newark, which helps quite a bit. I personally think that Xavier has to do more work that it looks like. They are just 3-9 against Quad 1 opponents, and that could drop to 1-9 if St. John’s and DePaul fall outside the top 75. With games at Georgetown (58), at Providence (48) and Butler (23), they’ll have three more chances to land Quad 1 wins. I think Xavier probably should win two of those to really feel comfortable.

UTAH STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After wiping the floor with San Jose State (280), the Aggies have won six in a row and nine of their last ten games, ensuring they are still in the NCAA tournament mix and fully turning around a season that looked like it was lost as recently as five weeks ago. Wins over LSU (29) and Florida (33) are nice, but with three road losses to sub-85 teams and no more chances to land marquee wins, how are they going to make up for those losses? They don’t play another top 100 team the rest of the season. I don’t see how they can feel comfortable about getting in without beating San Diego State (5) in the MWC tournament.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (NET: 57, NBC: Next four out): Mississippi State significantly dinged their at-large chances by losing at Texas A&M (117) on Saturday. That’s the third bad loss on their resume, and with a win at Florida (34) and a sweep of Arkansas (45) the only notable accomplishments to date, the Bulldogs find themselves in a tough spot. Saturday’s win against Alabama (40) at home on Tuesday helps, but that’s only a Quad 2 win. The Bulldogs have just Quad 1 wins to date. What’s worse is that they only get one more Quad 1 opportunity in the regular season, and that’s a game at South Carolina (63).

… AND LOSERS

N.C. STATE (NET: 53, NBC: 10): The Wolfpack fell to 17-11 on the season as North Carolina (96) finished off a season sweep with an 85-79 win in Chapel Hill. N.C. State has a weird resume. They are the proud owners of three Quad 3 losses as well as four more losses to sub-70 teams on the road. That’s not good. But they beat Duke (6) by 22 points in Raleigh, which is just one of their five Quad 1 wins. They are 9-8 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents on the season. It’s worth noting that Markell Johnson, N.C. State’s best player, did not play in one of the three Quad 3 losses — Georgia Tech (79) — so that will be something to monitor for the Selection Committee.

MEMPHIS (NET: 61, NBC: First four out): Memphis is hanging on by a thread right now, and losing at SMU (86) on Tuesday night is certainly not going to help anything. They are still alive after landed a critical win over Houston (24) at home over the weekend, but Memphis still only has a pair of Quad 1 wins compared to three Quad 3 losses. Memphis is also playing with D.J. Jeffries right now, which complicates matters as well. They end their season like this: at Tulane (174), Wichita State (44), at Houston (24). I think they need to win all three at this point.

ALABAMA (NET: 40, NBC: Next four out): The Crimson Tide lost on Tuesday, falling at Mississippi State (57) in what was their last opportunity to land a Quad 1 win. They’re now 15-13 overall and while they do have two Quad 1 wins — Auburn (28) and LSU (29) at home — but both of those teams are one loss away from potentially falling out of the Quad 1 range. They also have a pair of Quad 3 home losses. I think the dream is done for Alabama.

Tuesday’s Things to Know: Michigan State rallies by Iowa; Wake Forest stuns Duke in 2OT

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Tuesday night in college basketball saw Michigan State rally to knock off Iowa in the Big Ten while Wake Forest held off No. 7 Duke in double overtime. Oklahoma also stopped its recent three-game slide with a huge win over Texas Tech in the Big 12.

No. 24 Michigan State takes down No. 19 Iowa

Second place in the Big Ten is a crowded field.

Michigan State separated themselves from a six-game pack on Tuesday night with a home win over Iowa.

The Spartans rallied in the second half to earn one of their better wins of the season. Senior point guard Cassius Winston (20 points, nine assists) stepped up in the second half. Junior big man Xavier Tillman Sr. (six points, six rebounds) had modest numbers. Most importantly, Tillman made life very difficult on Iowa star center Luka Garza. The Player of the Year candidate played all 40 minutes. He was limited to 20 points on 8-for-21 shooting. And freshman guard Rocket Watts (23 points) and sophomore wing Aaron Henry (17 points) stepped up in the scoring column when Winston was slow to start.

Michigan State has a very strong schedule to close out the Big Ten regular season. Road games with Maryland and Penn State still loom. A home game with Ohio State to close out the regular season won’t be easy. But we’ll get to see how the preseason No. 1 team looks down the stretch against the type of schedule they’ll face in March.

It’s only one win at home against Iowa. Michigan State also slowed down a Player of the Year candidate and rallied on a night when their senior leader was sluggish in the first half. This is the type of win the Spartans will take at this point in the season.

Wake Forest stuns No. 7 Duke in 2OT

Tuesday night’s biggest upset went to Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons finally prevailed in double overtime over No. 7 Duke.

Wake Forest had five players with at least 16 points in the win. Olivier Sann (25 points) and Chaundee Brown (24 points) led the scoring. The Demon Deacons took advantage of 50 free throws (making 37) while shooting 51 percent from the field and 54 percent from three-point range in the win.

Duke was led by Wendell Moore Jr. (25 points) and Tre Jones (24 points). The Blue Devils dealt with foul trouble to freshman big man Vernon Carey Jr. and inconsistent play from other rotations players.

This win puts Florida State ahead of the ACC pack with only a few games to go. This is a shocking loss for the Blue Devils when it comes to conference play. But as long as Duke gets over this late-season swoon they should be fine for the NCAA tournament.

Oklahoma earns huge bubble win over No. 22 Texas Tech

The night’s most important bubble win goes to Oklahoma.

Playing in Oklahoma City, the Sooners raced out to a strong start and used it to run past Texas Tech for a Big 12 home win.

Losers of three consecutive games entering this one, Oklahoma was in a recent freefall they needed to stop. The Sooners put together one of their stronger defensive efforts this season as Kristian Doolittle led with 19 points.

The Sooners really helped their cause with a win like this over Texas Tech. The next one for Oklahoma comes at a West Virginia team desperate for a win. That one should be fascinating.

Wake Forest stuns No. 7 Duke in 2OT

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WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. — Brandon Childress shook off an awful shooting start, hit a tying 3-pointer late in regulation and helped Wake Forest stun seventh-ranked Duke 113-101 in double overtime Tuesday night.

Childress missed his first 10 shots before hitting the tying 3 with 15.5 seconds left in regulation. And once the game went into a second extra period, Childress buried another on the first possession to put the Demon Deacons (12-15, 5-12 Atlantic Coast Conference) ahead to stay, sending them to their first win against the Blue Devils in nearly six years.

NBC SPORTS BRACKETOLOGY

He finished with 17 points, five rebounds and five assists. Childress made six of his last 10 shots and scored 13 points in the two overtimes. Isaiah Mucius came up with a dunk with 14.7 seconds left to finally punctuate a huge victory for Danny Manning’s club.

“I don’t care about percentages,” Childress said of his 0-for-10 start. “I’m satisfied with the shots I take. I practice those. It might not have went as much as I’d like to. But I just wanted to find the right moment to take over the game, and I did that.”

When it was over, Wake Forest fans stormed the court to celebrate their first win against Duke since March 2014. Childress got carried around the court on shoulders.

“The second overtime, they just took over,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. “Obviously the total game, they were the team that was deserving of winning, and they did.”

It marked the second time in a week the Blue Devils (23-5, 13-4) lost on the road to an unranked, instate opponent. They lost by 22 points at North Carolina State last week, a game that ended with another court-storming celebration.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL SCOREBOARD

Freshman Wendell Moore Jr. had a season-high 25 points to lead the Blue Devils, and Tre Jones added 24 points, seven rebounds and nine assists at the point. But star big man Vernon Carey Jr. had 10 points before becoming one of three Blue Devils to foul out in a game they appeared to have under control, leading 78-69 with 1:21 left in regulation.

A few turnovers opened the door, just enough for Childress and the Demon Deacons to jump through.

Olivier Sarr scored a career-high 25 points before fouling out to lead Wake Forest, which shot 52% from the game and helped itself by getting to the line repeatedly. The Demon Deacons made 37 of 50 free throws, including 13 of 15 in the overtimes to finally wrestle control.

BIG PICTURE

Duke: It’s a costly loss for the Blue Devils, who fell a game behind league-leading and sixth-ranked Florida State in the ACC standings with three games to play.

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons had lost four of five coming in, sitting a game ahead of last-place North Carolina in the ACC. Now they have a huge win, ending an 11-game skid against the Blue Devils.

UP NEXT

Duke: The Blue Devils visit reigning national champion Virginia, which has won four straight and seven of eight, on Saturday.

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons host Notre Dame on Saturday.

More AP college basketball: https://apnews.com/Collegebasketball and http://www.twitter.com/AP-Top25

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