If today were Selection Sunday, and North Carolina was the ACC champion, the Selection Committee would likely be inclined to reward the Tar Heels with a No. 1 seed over a very strong Baylor team whose profile is equally impressive but lacks a conference title. In the world of splitting hairs, we just did. On that note, two interesting twists await. First, UNC hosts Louisville on Wednesday, and the Cardinals are No. 6 on the Seed List. If Louisville wins in Chapel Hill, the Cards could make a strong case for the top line on Thursday. Second, the Tar Heels close with an incredibly tough slate, going to Pittsburgh and Virginia before finishing at home with Duke. Baylor can easily play its way back up.
In the race for No. 1 seeds, Villanova and Kansas are sitting in strong positions as the regular season comes to a close. Should Gonzaga finish unbeaten, it would hard to drop the Zags from their No. 1 perch in the West. Which leaves, at least for now, one top seed up for grabs, and it could go any number of ways.
Another meh and blah weekend along the cutline. Should we lose solid mid-major programs like Middle Tennessee State, UNC Wilmington, and say, Monmouth or Illinois State during their conference championships, the Committee will have to heavily weigh a bunch of mediocre power teams versus some solid programs who have fewer chances for marquee wins.
UPDATED: February 20, 2017
Regarding bracketing principles, can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.
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FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)
- Georgia Tech vs. Marquette | South Region
- Seton Hall vs. TCU | East Region
- NORTH DAKOTA vs. UC-IRVINE | Midwest Region
- MT. ST. MARY’S vs. NEW ORLEANSE | East Region
BRACKET PROJECTION …
EAST – New York | MIDWEST – Kansas City | |
Buffalo | Tulsa | |
1) VILLANOVA | 1) KANSAS | |
16) NEW ORLEANS / M.S. MARY’S | 16) NO. DAKOTA / UC-IRVINE | |
8) Dayton | 8) Minnesota | |
9) Miami-FL | 9) Arkansas | |
Milwaukee | Milwaukee | |
5) Virginia | 5) Notre Dame | |
12) UNC-WILMINGTON | 12) ILLINOIS STATE | |
4) PURDUE | 4) Butler | |
13) AKRON | 13) UT-ARLINGTON | |
Indianapolis | Orlando | |
6) Saint Mary’s | 6) Wisconsin | |
11) Seton Hall / TCU | 11) Kansas State | |
3) Kentucky | 3) Florida State | |
14) PRINCETON | 14) BELMONT | |
Indianapolis | Salt Lake City | |
7) Northwestern | 7) Iowa State | |
10) Wichita State | 10) Michigan | |
2) Louisville | 2) ARIZONA | |
15) BUCKNELL | 15) NO. DAKOTA ST | |
SOUTH – Memphis | WEST – San Jose | |
Greenville | Salt Lake City | |
1) NORTH CAROLINA | 1) GONZAGA | |
16) NC-CENTRAL | 16) TX-SOUTHERN | |
8) Xavier | 8) Virginia Tech | |
9) VCU | 9) USC | |
Sacramento | Buffalo | |
5) Creighton | 5) CINCINNATI | |
12) VALPARAISO | 12) MONMOUTH | |
4) UCLA | 4) West Virginia | |
13) NEVADA | 13) VERMONT | |
Orlando | Greenville | |
6) SMU | 6) Maryland | |
11) Georgia Tech / Marquette | 11) MID TENNESSEE ST | |
3) FLORIDA | 3) Duke | |
14) UNC-ASHEVILLE | 14) FLA GULF COAST | |
Tulsa | Sacramento | |
7) South Carolina | 7) Oklahoma State | |
10) California | 10) Michigan State | |
2) Baylor | 2) Oregon | |
15) FURMAN | 15) CSU-BAKERSFIELD |
NOTES on the BRACKET: Villanova is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Kansas, Gonzaga, and North Carolina.
Last Four Byes (at large): California, Michigan State, Wichita State, Kansas State
Last Four IN (at large): Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Georgia Tech
First Four OUT (at large): Providence, Syracuse, Clemson, Tennessee
Next four teams OUT (at large): Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Indiana, Texas Tech
Breakdown by Conference …
ACC (9): NORTH CAROLINA, Louisville, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami-FL, Georgia Tech
Big 10 (7): PURDUE, Wisconsin, Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State
Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU
Big East (6): VILLANOVA, Butler, Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette
Pac 12 (5): OREGON, Arizona, UCLA, USC, California
SEC (4): FLORIDA, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas
Atlantic 10 (2): VCU, Dayton
American (2): CINCINNATI, SMU
West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s
Missouri Valley (1): ILLINOIS STATE, Wichita State
Mountain West (1): NEVADA
ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), Middle Tennessee State (C-USA), UT-Arlington (SBELT), Princeton (IVY), North Dakota (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), New Orleans (SLND), Furman (STHN), UC-Irvine (BWEST), Akron (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), Winthrop (BSO), NC-Central (MEAC), North Dakota State (SUM), CSU-Bakersfield (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Mt. St. Mary’s (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)