Joe Robbins/Getty Images

THE UNDEFEATEDS: Which of those seven teams will last the longest?

Leave a comment

There are now just seven undefeated teams left in college basketball after TCU, Saint Mary’s, Notre Dame and Butler lost last week.

Today, we’ll take you through each of those seven teams, letting you know whether or not they are truly contenders or simply a product of their schedule while letting you know precisely when they are going to take their first loss.

TOP 25 TEAMS

No. 16 South Carolina (8-0): The Gamecocks are the easiest team on this list to pick. They’ve been steadily climbing in the polls because they’re undefeated and own wins over the likes of Michigan and Syracuse, and their defense is legit. As of today, they’re ranked fifth in KenPom.com’s defensive efficiency metric, and that’s not a fluke. Frank Martin’s club has veteran, tough and athletic guys at every spot on the floor that thrive in his overplaying, half-court man-to-man defense. The Gamecocks are real in the sense that they’re probably the second-best team in the SEC this season, but A) that isn’t saying all that much and B) those wins over Syracuse and Michigan looked much more impressive at the time than they do right now.

  • First loss will be 12/12 vs. Seton Hall, 8-0: The Gamecocks will be playing a game in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn against a good team from New Jersey without their best player in Sindarius Thornwell. Seton Hall isn’t going to be intimidated by over-aggressive defenses.

No. 24 USC Trojans (9-0): Once again, the Trojans are playing above their heads. For a team that entered the season with just four players that had played a second of basketball for USC prior to the season, it’s impressive that Enfield has managed to steer them to a 9-0 with wins at Texas A&M, at home against SMU and over BYU on a neutral court. It’s worth noting they’ve won four of those games without Bennie Boatwright, their starting four-man who has dealt with knee an back injuries.

  • First loss will be 12/30 at Oregon, 13-0: The Trojans will playing their second road game in three days when they play in Eugene, and by then, it’s probably fair to assume that this Oregon team, who was in the top five in the preseason will get things figured out. The key? When does Boatwright get back.
PROVIDENCE, RI - MARCH 17: Johnathan Motley #5 of the Baylor Bears looks on in the second half against the Yale Bulldogs during the first round of the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Dunkin' Donuts Center on March 17, 2016 in Providence, Rhode Island. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Johnathan Motley (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

THEY CAN MAKE A FINAL FOUR

No. 4 Baylor (8-0): Baylor has been the most surprising team in college basketball this season. The Bears have piled up wins over Oregon, VCU, Michigan State, Louisville and Xavier, which is impressive of a résumé as you’ll find at this point in the season. If they can find a way to beat Kansas at some point during the regular season and win either a share of the Big 12 regular season title or the Big 12 tournament, the Bears could realistically end up getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. I’m not yet ready to say that Baylor is in the same class as the likes of KU, Kentucky, Duke, Villanova or UCLA, but I am ready to say that every single one of us missed wildly on how good Baylor would be this season.

  • First loss will be 1/10 at West Virginia, 15-0: The Mountaineers are another team we missed on in the preseason, and I think they provide a nightmare matchup for Baylor. The Bears strength is their front court, but that can get taken away by the pressure WVU provides. As good as he’s been this season, I’m not totally sold on Manu Lecomte yet. I think pressure can beat the Bears, and no one has a tougher press than Press Virginia.

No. 10 Creighton (10-0): Through the first month of the season, the Bluejays look like they might be the second-best team in the Big East as Xavier continues to try and figure out how they are going to make threes this season. Creighton doesn’t have that issue, as they rank second nationally in both effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage. Their top six three-point shooters are all shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the are, and three of those six are knocking down more than half of their three-point attempts. This team is more talented than the team Creighton had during Doug McDermott’s senior season.

  • First loss will be 1/16 at Xavier, 18-0: Xavier is still trying to find themselves, but there are two things you can count on with a program run by Chris Mack: toughness and defense will never, ever be an issue. They’re hard to beat in the Cintas Center and there’s a chance that Myles Davis will be back by then. I don’t want to bet against Xavier in a situation like that were they really need a win.
OMAHA, NE - NOVEMBER 15: Maurice Watson Jr. #10 of the Creighton Bluejays drives to the hoop past Jordan Hill #11 of the Wisconsin Badgers during their game at the CenturyLink Center on November 15, 2016 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)
Maurice Watson Jr. (Eric Francis/Getty Images)

THEY CAN WIN A NATIONAL TITLE

No. 1 Villanova (10-0): The Wildcats managed to remain unbeaten thanks to a masterful performance from Josh Hart, who had 37 points and 11 boards to send No. 23 Notre Dame to their first loss of the season. Villanova is the reigning national champion, so of course they have the ability to repeat as national champs; like Buddy Hield and Denzel Valentine last season, Hart has really improved as a senior.

Villanova is also playing without Phil Booth, who has a knee injury. This group deserves to be in the same conversation as the likes of Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and UCLA, the biggest brands with the most talent in the sport. Jay Wright may not have NBA scouts beating down the doors of practice to get a look at the guys on his roster, but this veteran group is greater as a whole than the sum of their parts.

  • First loss will be 12/31 at Creighton, 13-0: Creighton has always been a tough matchup for Villanova because Creighton plays the same kind of small-ball, four-around-one style. What’s traditionally made Villanova so difficult for opponents to matchup with is that they create mismatches offensively because their players are versatile defenders. Creighton, however, can do the same thing. Cole Huff, the Bluejays four-man, can play as a small forward and is most comfortable on the perimeter. He will have no issues defending the lines of Eric Paschall or Kris Jenkins. Throw in the fact that Creighton packs 17,000 fans into their home games, and I think they can hand the Wildcats their first loss.

RELATED: Player of the Week | Team of the Week | Five Things We Learned

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Audioboom

No. 8 Gonzaga (10-0): Of the seven teams left without a loss, I think Gonzaga probably has the best chance to get to the NCAA tournament unblemished. Part of that is because they play in the West Coast Conference, a league every road game is their opponent’s Super Bowl but those opponents are decidedly mid-major competition. Gonzaga? They’re as high-major as high-major gets and have a roster that is stocked with talent.

Nigel Williams-Goss and Josh Perkins have played really well together in the back court, while Jordan Mathews works as a floor-spacer and Silas Melson has seemed to embrace his role within the team. But the front court is where this team is so exciting. Przemek Karnowski and Johnathan Williams III are veterans that fit well together, but there’s an argument to be made that their freshmen backups – Killian Tillie and Zach Collins – are the second-best front court pairing in the league. I think this is the best team that Mark Few has had in Spokane, and that includes the Adam Morrison and Kelly Olynyk years.

  • First loss will be 2/11 at Saint Mary’s, 25-0: This year is the first time that the Zags have reached 10-0 since joining Division I. They’ll have three real tests before their road trip to Moraga – they’re at Tennessee this weekend, they host the Gaels in mid-January and visit BYU in early February – but if they can get to this game unscathed, they’ll likely have a shot to be undefeated when the postseason comes around.

No. 2 UCLA (10-0): We mentioned earlier how Creighton’s offense is a powerhouse. Well, UCLA is the only team in the country that has a higher effective field goal percentage, a higher three-point percentage and they play at a faster pace. In fact, UCLA is currently shooting 47.1 percent from three. Only one team since 1997 has shot better than 45 percent from three, and that was Northern Colorado in 2011-12. That UNC team shot 16 threes per game. This UCLA team shoots 24.

In other words, it’s not crazy to say that this UCLA team could end up being the best three-point shooting team in college basketball history if they can find a way to keep up this pace through league play. But even if they don’t, this is not a team that relies entirely on the three-ball. They have a guy named Lonzo Ball – I don’t know if you’ve heard of him, he’s not bad – that makes them lethal in transition and has transformed that roster into one of the most unselfish in the country.

  • First loss will be 2/25 at Arizona, 28-0: I think UCLA can get past their road trip to Oregon three days after Christmas mostly because I think that the Bruins will have a bit of an advantage over USC; they play the Ducks on the first day of the road trip. The trip to play the Mountain teams (Colorado and Utah) is always tricky given the altitude, and that starts a stretch where they play five of seven on the road, including at USC and capped with a visit to Markelle Fultz and Washington. But I think this group gets through all that mostly because I think the Pac-12 is down this year. Where I think they get tripped up is at Arizona, who should have Parker Jackson-Cartwright (and maybe/hopefully Allonzo Trier) back and who should be getting the best out of Kobi Simmons and Rawle Alkins. That’s a fierce rivalry that only has fuel added to the fire by T.J. Leaf, a UCLA player that was originally an Arizona commit.
NEWARK, NJ - DECEMBER 10: Josh Hart #3 of the Villanova Wildcats takes a shot against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half of a college basketball game at Prudential Center on December 10, 2016 in Newark, New Jersey. Villanova defeated Notre Dame 74-66. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Josh Hart (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Bubble Banter: Oklahoma lands massive win over No. 22 Texas Tech

AP Photo
Leave a comment

There is plenty of action happening on the bracketology bubble watch despite it being a relatively slow night for college hoops.

Dave Ommen’s latest bracketology can be found here. Rob Dauster’s Bubble Watch can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.

Here is everything you need to know to.

THE BUBBLE WATCH WINNERS

OKLAHOMA (NET: 55, NBC: Play-in game): The biggest winner of the night was, without question, Oklahoma. The Sooners picked up their fourth Quad 1 win of the season with an impressive, 65-51 win over Texas Tech (15). It snaps a three-game losing streak that had dropped Oklahoma to 17-11 on the season and sets them up for a massive trip to West Virginia (17) on Saturday, who they beat at home earlier this month. They are now 17-11 on the season and are sitting with a 4-9 record against the top Quad and nine total wins against the top two Quads. It’s also worth noting they only have two road wins on the season — at Texas (66) and at North Texas (92).

XAVIER (NET: 43, NBC: 10): The Musketeers shook off a loss to Villanova (12) at home on Saturday by knocking off DePaul (73) on Tuesday night. The best thing about this Xavier team’s resume is that they really have not taken all that many bad losses. Their worst loss of the season came at Wake Forest (109), which is a Quad 2 loss. It’s the only team ranked outside of the top 35 in the NET that Xavier has lost to. They only have three Quad 1 wins — and two of them are at St. John’s (70) and at DePaul (73) — but they do have a win over Seton Hall (17) in Newark, which helps quite a bit. I personally think that Xavier has to do more work that it looks like. They are just 3-9 against Quad 1 opponents, and that could drop to 1-9 if St. John’s and DePaul fall outside the top 75. With games at Georgetown (58), at Providence (48) and Butler (23), they’ll have three more chances to land Quad 1 wins. I think Xavier probably should win two of those to really feel comfortable.

UTAH STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After wiping the floor with San Jose State (280), the Aggies have won six in a row and nine of their last ten games, ensuring they are still in the NCAA tournament mix and fully turning around a season that looked like it was lost as recently as five weeks ago. Wins over LSU (29) and Florida (33) are nice, but with three road losses to sub-85 teams and no more chances to land marquee wins, how are they going to make up for those losses? They don’t play another top 100 team the rest of the season. I don’t see how they can feel comfortable about getting in without beating San Diego State (5) in the MWC tournament.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (NET: 57, NBC: Next four out): Mississippi State significantly dinged their at-large chances by losing at Texas A&M (117) on Saturday. That’s the third bad loss on their resume, and with a win at Florida (34) and a sweep of Arkansas (45) the only notable accomplishments to date, the Bulldogs find themselves in a tough spot. Saturday’s win against Alabama (40) at home on Tuesday helps, but that’s only a Quad 2 win. The Bulldogs have just Quad 1 wins to date. What’s worse is that they only get one more Quad 1 opportunity in the regular season, and that’s a game at South Carolina (63).

… AND LOSERS

N.C. STATE (NET: 53, NBC: 10): The Wolfpack fell to 17-11 on the season as North Carolina (96) finished off a season sweep with an 85-79 win in Chapel Hill. N.C. State has a weird resume. They are the proud owners of three Quad 3 losses as well as four more losses to sub-70 teams on the road. That’s not good. But they beat Duke (6) by 22 points in Raleigh, which is just one of their five Quad 1 wins. They are 9-8 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents on the season. It’s worth noting that Markell Johnson, N.C. State’s best player, did not play in one of the three Quad 3 losses — Georgia Tech (79) — so that will be something to monitor for the Selection Committee.

MEMPHIS (NET: 61, NBC: First four out): Memphis is hanging on by a thread right now, and losing at SMU (86) on Tuesday night is certainly not going to help anything. They are still alive after landed a critical win over Houston (24) at home over the weekend, but Memphis still only has a pair of Quad 1 wins compared to three Quad 3 losses. Memphis is also playing with D.J. Jeffries right now, which complicates matters as well. They end their season like this: at Tulane (174), Wichita State (44), at Houston (24). I think they need to win all three at this point.

ALABAMA (NET: 40, NBC: Next four out): The Crimson Tide lost on Tuesday, falling at Mississippi State (57) in what was their last opportunity to land a Quad 1 win. They’re now 15-13 overall and while they do have two Quad 1 wins — Auburn (28) and LSU (29) at home — but both of those teams are one loss away from potentially falling out of the Quad 1 range. They also have a pair of Quad 3 home losses. I think the dream is done for Alabama.

Tuesday’s Things to Know: Michigan State rallies by Iowa; Wake Forest stuns Duke in 2OT

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Tuesday night in college basketball saw Michigan State rally to knock off Iowa in the Big Ten while Wake Forest held off No. 7 Duke in double overtime. Oklahoma also stopped its recent three-game slide with a huge win over Texas Tech in the Big 12.

No. 24 Michigan State takes down No. 19 Iowa

Second place in the Big Ten is a crowded field.

Michigan State separated themselves from a six-game pack on Tuesday night with a home win over Iowa.

The Spartans rallied in the second half to earn one of their better wins of the season. Senior point guard Cassius Winston (20 points, nine assists) stepped up in the second half. Junior big man Xavier Tillman Sr. (six points, six rebounds) had modest numbers. Most importantly, Tillman made life very difficult on Iowa star center Luka Garza. The Player of the Year candidate played all 40 minutes. He was limited to 20 points on 8-for-21 shooting. And freshman guard Rocket Watts (23 points) and sophomore wing Aaron Henry (17 points) stepped up in the scoring column when Winston was slow to start.

Michigan State has a very strong schedule to close out the Big Ten regular season. Road games with Maryland and Penn State still loom. A home game with Ohio State to close out the regular season won’t be easy. But we’ll get to see how the preseason No. 1 team looks down the stretch against the type of schedule they’ll face in March.

It’s only one win at home against Iowa. Michigan State also slowed down a Player of the Year candidate and rallied on a night when their senior leader was sluggish in the first half. This is the type of win the Spartans will take at this point in the season.

Wake Forest stuns No. 7 Duke in 2OT

Tuesday night’s biggest upset went to Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons finally prevailed in double overtime over No. 7 Duke.

Wake Forest had five players with at least 16 points in the win. Olivier Sann (25 points) and Chaundee Brown (24 points) led the scoring. The Demon Deacons took advantage of 50 free throws (making 37) while shooting 51 percent from the field and 54 percent from three-point range in the win.

Duke was led by Wendell Moore Jr. (25 points) and Tre Jones (24 points). The Blue Devils dealt with foul trouble to freshman big man Vernon Carey Jr. and inconsistent play from other rotations players.

This win puts Florida State ahead of the ACC pack with only a few games to go. This is a shocking loss for the Blue Devils when it comes to conference play. But as long as Duke gets over this late-season swoon they should be fine for the NCAA tournament.

Oklahoma earns huge bubble win over No. 22 Texas Tech

The night’s most important bubble win goes to Oklahoma.

Playing in Oklahoma City, the Sooners raced out to a strong start and used it to run past Texas Tech for a Big 12 home win.

Losers of three consecutive games entering this one, Oklahoma was in a recent freefall they needed to stop. The Sooners put together one of their stronger defensive efforts this season as Kristian Doolittle led with 19 points.

The Sooners really helped their cause with a win like this over Texas Tech. The next one for Oklahoma comes at a West Virginia team desperate for a win. That one should be fascinating.

Wake Forest stuns No. 7 Duke in 2OT

Getty Images
Leave a comment

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. — Brandon Childress shook off an awful shooting start, hit a tying 3-pointer late in regulation and helped Wake Forest stun seventh-ranked Duke 113-101 in double overtime Tuesday night.

Childress missed his first 10 shots before hitting the tying 3 with 15.5 seconds left in regulation. And once the game went into a second extra period, Childress buried another on the first possession to put the Demon Deacons (12-15, 5-12 Atlantic Coast Conference) ahead to stay, sending them to their first win against the Blue Devils in nearly six years.

NBC SPORTS BRACKETOLOGY

He finished with 17 points, five rebounds and five assists. Childress made six of his last 10 shots and scored 13 points in the two overtimes. Isaiah Mucius came up with a dunk with 14.7 seconds left to finally punctuate a huge victory for Danny Manning’s club.

“I don’t care about percentages,” Childress said of his 0-for-10 start. “I’m satisfied with the shots I take. I practice those. It might not have went as much as I’d like to. But I just wanted to find the right moment to take over the game, and I did that.”

When it was over, Wake Forest fans stormed the court to celebrate their first win against Duke since March 2014. Childress got carried around the court on shoulders.

“The second overtime, they just took over,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. “Obviously the total game, they were the team that was deserving of winning, and they did.”

It marked the second time in a week the Blue Devils (23-5, 13-4) lost on the road to an unranked, instate opponent. They lost by 22 points at North Carolina State last week, a game that ended with another court-storming celebration.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL SCOREBOARD

Freshman Wendell Moore Jr. had a season-high 25 points to lead the Blue Devils, and Tre Jones added 24 points, seven rebounds and nine assists at the point. But star big man Vernon Carey Jr. had 10 points before becoming one of three Blue Devils to foul out in a game they appeared to have under control, leading 78-69 with 1:21 left in regulation.

A few turnovers opened the door, just enough for Childress and the Demon Deacons to jump through.

Olivier Sarr scored a career-high 25 points before fouling out to lead Wake Forest, which shot 52% from the game and helped itself by getting to the line repeatedly. The Demon Deacons made 37 of 50 free throws, including 13 of 15 in the overtimes to finally wrestle control.

BIG PICTURE

Duke: It’s a costly loss for the Blue Devils, who fell a game behind league-leading and sixth-ranked Florida State in the ACC standings with three games to play.

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons had lost four of five coming in, sitting a game ahead of last-place North Carolina in the ACC. Now they have a huge win, ending an 11-game skid against the Blue Devils.

UP NEXT

Duke: The Blue Devils visit reigning national champion Virginia, which has won four straight and seven of eight, on Saturday.

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons host Notre Dame on Saturday.

More AP college basketball: https://apnews.com/Collegebasketball and http://www.twitter.com/AP-Top25

Follow Aaron Beard on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/aaronbeardap

No. 8 Kentucky holds off Texas A&M

AP Photo
Leave a comment

COLLEGE STATION, Texas — Immanuel Quickley swears he had no idea he’d made a career-best eight 3-pointers on Tuesday night until he looked at the boxscore after the game.

“I really thought I had four and then I looked at it and said, `I don’t remember any of those,” he said.

Quickley also set a career-high with 30 points thanks to his hot long-range shooting to lead No. 8 Kentucky to its seventh straight win, 69-60, over Texas A&M.

While he didn’t seem to be aware of what kind of night he was having, his teammates certainly were.

“Super hot, super hot fire,” EJ Montgomery said. “If you touch him, you’re going to get burned.”

Quickley is the first Kentucky player with consecutive games with at least 25 points since Malik Monk in 2017. The sophomore scored 26 in a win over Florida on Saturday.

NBC SPORTS LATEST BRACKETOLOGY

Kentucky (23-5, 13-2 Southeastern Conference) was up by 13 and the Aggies hadn’t made a field goal in more than eight minutes when Quenton Jackson ended the drought with a dunk with about 6 minutes to go. That was the start of a 8-2 run by Texas A&M that cut the lead to 57-50 with about 4 minutes left.

Quickley ended the run with a jump shot and hit another 3-pointer after a free throw from Josh Nebo to make it 62-51 with about 90 seconds left to secure the victory. He was equally effective in the first half, making consecutive 3-pointers that thwarted another Texas A&M spurt.

While Quickley’s teammates raved about his big night, coach John Calipari was reticent to do so to the point that a reporter finally asked him why he was downplaying the performance.

“No, man, he had 30,” Calipari said. “It’s big. I love it. I don’t know what you want me to say. He made shots.”

Though Calipari finally lauded Quickley, it didn’t come until after he’d complained about what he did on one play before halftime.

“At halftime, I wanted to choke him because we set up a play for Nate (Sestina) to shoot a 3 and he was wide open and (Quickley) shot a ball,” Calipari said. “I went crazy. Are you kidding me?”

Wendell Mitchell had 18 points for Texas A&M (14-13, 8-7), which had a three-game winning streak snapped. The Aggies have lost nine straight games to ranked opponents, with their last win against a team in the Top 25 coming on March 18, 2018, when they beat No. 10 North Carolina.

Texas A&M coach Buzz Williams said they executed their defensive plan well, but that it just didn’t work out because of Quickley’s performance.

“Our premise defensively is to do everything we can do to keep the ball out of the paint,” he said. “We want to force the team to shoot more 3s than normal.”

He said he didn’t consider changing that philosophy even when Quickley got going.

“There were just too many times we were just a second late,” he said.

BIG PICTURE

Kentucky: Quickley, the SEC’s player of the week last week, seems to get better every game and is peaking at the right time. His ability to knock down 3s makes it difficult to slow him and the Wildcats down. It was his third straight game with 20 points or more and his 17th in a row with at least 10.

Texas A&M: The Aggies had discovered some offense during their winning streak but had trouble scoring Tuesday and finished with their worst offensive performance of the season. They’ll need to figure out how to be more effective on offense if they hope to close the regular season strong.

25-POINT CLUB

The Wildcats have had five players score 25 points or more this season for the first time since the 2015-16 season. Quickley is joined by Montgomery, Tyrese Maxey, Nick Richards and Hagans in the 25-point club. Calipari believes having so many players who have shown that capability will help his team in the postseason.

“In the tournament, if someone gets hot for your team and they know they can do it because they’ve done it one time, or twice or three times, that guy may help you win and advance in a game you weren’t going to win,” he said.

UP NEXT

Kentucky: Hosts Auburn on Saturday after losing to the Tigers 75-66 on Feb. 1.

Texas A&M: Visits LSU on Saturday. The Aggies lost to the Tigers 89-85 in overtime in their first meeting this season.

For more AP college basketball coverage: https://apnews.com/Collegebasketball and http://twitter.com/AP-Top25

Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Leave a comment

It’s that time of the year again, which means that we are diving head first into our annual NCAA tournament bubble watch.

The way that it will work is simple: We’ll be looking at every team that our Dave Ommen, the best bracketologist in the business, considers in the mix for an at-large bid. In an effort to keep this somewhat manageable, we are going to assume that the top 36 teams in the field — every team that is a No. 9-seed or above — is “off the bubble”. This does not mean those teams are a lock to dance, it just means that they have given themselves enough room for error that we can take them out of the conversation until they do something dumb.

Dave’s latest bracket can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.

So with all that in mind, let’s get into the full NCAA tournament bubble watch:



ACC BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Duke (NBC: 2), Florida State (NBC: 2), Louisville (NBC: 3)

VIRGINIA (NET: 50, NBC: 9): Virginia won for the fourth straight time on Saturday, knocking off Pitt (100) on the road. They only have three Quad 1 wins and a 9-6 mark against the top two Quads with home dates left against Duke (6) and Louisville (8). They can’t afford slip-ups, and could really use three or four more wins before Selection Sunday. But Virginia is starting to play much better, and as of today they are in a pretty good spot to get to the tournament.

N.C. STATE (NET: 53, NBC: 10): The Wolfpack fell to 17-11 on the season as North Carolina (96) finished off a season sweep with an 85-79 win in Chapel Hill. N.C. State has a weird resume. They are the proud owners of three Quad 3 losses as well as four more losses to sub-70 teams on the road. That’s not good. But they beat Duke (6) by 22 points in Raleigh, which is just one of their five Quad 1 wins. They are 9-8 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents on the season. It’s worth noting that Markell Johnson, N.C. State’s best player, did not play in one of the three Quad 3 losses — Georgia Tech (79) — so that will be something to monitor for the Selection Committee.


AMERICAN BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Houston (NBC: 9)

WICHITA STATE (NET: 43, NBC: Play-in game): Wichita State saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday afternoon, losing by three at Cincinnati (53). They have beaten VCU (57) and Oklahoma (54) at home, and they don’t have any truly terrible losses, but with just one potential Quad 1 games left on their schedule — all of which are on the road — and without a top 50 win on the season, I think the Shockers are going to have an uncomfortable Selection Sunday. The fact that they are 8-7 against the top two Quads without a bad loss is something of a saving grace at this point.

MEMPHIS (NET: 61, NBC: First four out): Memphis is hanging on by a thread right now, and losing at SMU (86) on Tuesday night is certainly not going to help anything. They are still alive after landed a critical win over Houston (24) at home over the weekend, but Memphis still only has a pair of Quad 1 wins compared to three Quad 3 losses. Memphis is also playing with D.J. Jeffries right now, which complicates matters as well. They end their season like this: at Tulane (174), Wichita State (44), at Houston (24). I think they need to win all three at this point.

CINCINNATI (NET: 53, NBC: 11): The Bearcats shot themselves in the foot on Wednesday, losing at home to UCF (125). They bounced back and beat Wichita State (43) at home on Saturday, which gives Cincinnati an eighth win over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. As of this very moment, Cincinnati has just two Quad 1 wins and four Quad 3 losses, all of which came to teams sitting outside the top 100. They’re in a bad spot right now, and with just one more potential Quad 1 win on their resume, I’m not sure just how much they’ll be able to do to fix it. Beating Houston (25) on the road next Sunday has become a must-win.


ATLANTIC 10 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Dayton (NBC: 2)

RHODE ISLAND (NET: 36, NBC: 10): The Rams did not help themselves by losing at Davidson (76) on Saturday, which isn’t a killer but is a Quad 2 loss. They’re now 19-7 overall with just one Quad 1 win, but they are 6-6 against the top two Quads. The loss to Brown (218) is ugly, but as long as URI avoids the landmines on their schedule, I think they can get an at-large even with a loss to Dayton (5) at home in March.

RICHMOND (NET: 48, NBC: First four out): Richmond had their five-game winning streak snapped on the road against St. Bonaventure, which is not a bad loss in real life but is a bad loss on an NCAA tournament resume. The Spiders only have one truly terrible loss to their name — Radford (162) got them on a neutral court — but they only have two Quad 1 wins and a 4-6 record against the top two Quads. Their margin for error is completely gone.


BIG 12 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Baylor (NBC: 1), Kansas (NBC: 1), West Virginia (NBC: 6), Texas Tech (NBC: 8)

OKLAHOMA (NET: 55, NBC: Play-in game): The biggest winner of the night was, without question, Oklahoma. The Sooners picked up their fourth Quad 1 win of the season with an impressive, 65-51 win over Texas Tech (15). It snaps a three-game losing streak that had dropped Oklahoma to 17-11 on the season and sets them up for a massive trip to West Virginia (17) on Saturday, who they beat at home earlier this month. They are now 17-11 on the season and are sitting with a 4-9 record against the top Quad and nine total wins against the top two Quads. It’s also worth noting they only have two road wins on the season — at Texas (66) and at North Texas (92).

TEXAS (NET: 66, NBC: Off the bubble): The Longhorns won their third straight game on Monday night, as they beat No. 20 West Virginia (17) despite playing without Jericho Sims, Gerald Liddell and Jase Febres. Suddenly, a team that we had all written off is right back in the mix, as the Mountaineers are a top 20 team in the NET and the kind of elite win that Texas was sorely lacking on their resume. As it stands, the Longhorns are sitting at 17-11 overall and 7-8 in the Big 12. They have three Quad 1 wins, Monday night’s win as well as roadies at Purdue (36) and Oklahoma State (69), and a 5-11 mark against the top two Quads without a bad loss to their name. Saturday’s trip to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech (15) is going to be the make or break game. It’s not a win-and-you’re-win type deal, but I do think that taking a loss to the Red Raiders would mean that the Longhorns will have to beat one of the Big 12’s top four teams in the conference tournament to have a realistic shot at getting to the dance.


BIG EAST BUBBLE WATCH

Top 9: Seton Hall (NBC: 3), Villanova (NBC: 3), Creighton (NBC: 3), Butler (NBC: 6), Marquette (NBC: 7)

XAVIER (NET: 43, NBC: 10): The Musketeers shook off a loss to Villanova (12) at home on Saturday by knocking off DePaul (73) on Tuesday night. The best thing about this Xavier team’s resume is that they really have not taken all that many bad losses. Their worst loss of the season came at Wake Forest (109), which is a Quad 2 loss. It’s the only team ranked outside of the top 35 in the NET that Xavier has lost to. They only have three Quad 1 wins — and two of them are at St. John’s (70) and at DePaul (73) — but they do have a win over Seton Hall (17) in Newark, which helps quite a bit. I personally think that Xavier has to do more work that it looks like. They are just 3-9 against Quad 1 opponents, and that could drop to 1-9 if St. John’s and DePaul fall outside the top 75. With games at Georgetown (58), at Providence (48) and Butler (23), they’ll have three more chances to land Quad 1 wins. I think Xavier probably should win two of those to really feel comfortable.

PROVIDENCE (NET: 46, NBC: Play-in game): The Friars are now the official owners of the strangest resume in college basketball. On Friday, Marquette (26) paid a visit to The Dunk and lost. Providence has now won three straight games and have now won five of their last seven. All five of those wins are Quad 1 wins, and they include a road win over Butler (20), home wins against Creighton (11) and Seton Hall (17), and Saturday’s win against Marquette. The Friars now have seven Quad 1 wins. If you only look at wins, Providence is like a five seed.

The problem is the losses. There are 12 of them, and some of them are really, really bad. Providence lost to Charleston (142) and Long Beach State (288) on neutral courts, at Northwestern (164) and to Penn (154) at home. That’s three Quad 3 losses and a Quad 4 loss. It’s wild that the Friars are even in the conversation with all of that garbage on their resume, but they very much are.

GEORGETOWN (NET: 55, NBC: Next four out): This is why Georgetown can’t have nice things. After beating Butler (20) on the road to play themselves onto the right side of the bubble, the Hoyas went out this week and lost to Providence (46) at home and at DePaul (72) on Saturday. They still get Marquette (26) and Creighton (11) on the road, and Villanova (10) at home, so they’re not dead. But they are in a bad spot.


BIG TEN BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Maryland (NBC: 2), Michigan (NBC: 4), Penn State (NBC: 4), Ohio State (NBC: 5), Michigan State (NBC: 5), Iowa (NBC: 6),  Illinois (NBC: 7), Wisconsin (NBC: 7), Indiana (NBC: 8)

RUTGERS (NET: 33, NBC: 10): The Scarlet Knights have one of the weirder resumes on the bubble right now after losing at Wisconsin (30) on Sunday. They’re 17-10 overall and they are 9-8 in a Big Ten that is as deep as any league I can remember. They have three Quad 1 wins, just one Quad 3 loss and a 7-9 mark against the top two Quads. Eight of their ten losses are to Quad 1 opponents. They played a tough non-conference schedule, and they have some really impressive home wins. The problem? They’ve only won a single game outside of the RAC this year, and that came at Nebraska (183), who is more or less the worst team in the Big Ten. Their season finishes like this: at Penn State (24), Maryland (7), at Purdue (37). Rutgers has some work left to do, and I really think winning one of those two road games will be the most important part.

PURDUE (NET: 37, NBC: Off the bubble): After the Boilermakers lost to Michigan (23) at home on Saturday, they are sitting at 14-14 overall and just 7-10 in the Big Ten. They do actually have a pretty strong resume in regards to the number of good wins that they have, but the biggest issue currently facing Purdue is the number of losses, including a Quad 3 loss. The most losses an at-large team has ever had is 15. For context, Indiana last season was 17-15 with six Quad 1 wins and nine Quad 1 and 2 wins and they were left out. Purdue is 5-10 against Quad 1 opponents — three of those five wins vacillate between Quad 1 and Quad 2 — and 7-12 against the top two Quads with a 3-8 record on the road. Their best road win is at Indiana (58). They’re in a tough spot right now.


PAC-12 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Oregon (NBC: 4), Colorado (NBC: 5), Arizona (NBC: 7), Arizona State (NBC: 8)

UCLA (NET: 76, NBC: First four out): The Bruins are making a push to get into the NCAA tournament. On Saturday, they completed a sweet of the mountain schools — the toughest road trip in all of college basketball — and have now won five in a row and nine of their last 11 games. They own a sweep of Colorado (18), they won at Arizona (9) and while they do have a Quad 3 loss — Hofstra (114) — and a Quad 4 loss — Fullerton (261) — the Bruins are now sitting on five Quad 1 wins, three of which came against top 15 teams, two on the road. The metrics don’t love the Bruins, but today’s win will help and if the metrics love Arizona and Colorado this much, it should mean quite a bit that UCLA was able to beat them. Their resume isn’t quite as weird as Providence’s, but both of these teams are going to give the Selection Committee a headache on Selection Sunday.

With games left against Arizona, Arizona State and USC, the Bruins will have the chances to play their way in. It’s wild to think that we’re here after the way the season started, but we are.

USC (NET: 47, NBC: Play-in game): After sweeping the Washington schools in LA two weeks ago, the Trojans turned around and lost at Colorado (18) and Utah (81) last week. Suddenly, they’re in a bit of a bad spot. They only have two Quad 1 wins and are now 8-8 against the top two Quads with an 8-7 mark away from the Galen Center, including five road wins. The home loss to Temple (111) is not ideal, but it is survivable. The biggest issue may be how tough their remaining schedule is. The Trojans still get Arizona (8), Arizona State (41) and UCLA (76), who is a game out of first place in the Pac-12, at home. I think they’re still in a pretty good spot, but it’s not going to be comfortable if they don’t win at least two more games before Selection Sunday.

STANFORD (NET: 31, NBC: First four out): The Cardinal finally snapped their losing streak by going into Seattle and knocking off Washington (65) to pick up their third Quad 1 win of the season. They followed that up by winning at Washington State (121), which is tougher than it has been in the past. They are just 2-5 against Quad 1 opponents, 6-8 against the top two Quads and have a Quad 3 loss — at Cal (142) — to their name. They still get Colorado (12) at home and Oregon (19) on the road, so there will be chances to improve their resume, but the Cardinal will need to capitalize on those to feel good on Selection Sunday.


SEC BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Kentucky (NBC: 4), Auburn (NBC: 5), LSU (NBC: 8), Florida (NBC: 9)

ARKANSAS (NET: 45, NBC: Next four out): The Razorbacks snapped a five-game losing streak on Saturday by beating Missouri (87) at home. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins and a 4-10 mark against the top two Quads, but the more important record is this: They are 16-5 on the season with a healthy Isaiah Joe, who returned to action and scored 21 points on Saturday. It will be very interesting to see how the selection committee handles Arkansas.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (NET: 57, NBC: Next four out): Mississippi State significantly dinged their at-large chances by losing at Texas A&M (117) on Saturday. That’s the third bad loss on their resume, and with a win at Florida (34) and a sweep of Arkansas (45) the only notable accomplishments to date, the Bulldogs find themselves in a tough spot. Saturday’s win against Alabama (40) at home on Tuesday helps, but that’s only a Quad 2 win. The Bulldogs have just Quad 1 wins to date. What’s worse is that they only get one more Quad 1 opportunity in the regular season, and that’s a game at South Carolina (63).

ALABAMA (NET: 40, NBC: Next four out): The Crimson Tide lost on Tuesday, falling at Mississippi State (57) in what was their last opportunity to land a Quad 1 win. They’re now 15-13 overall and while they do have two Quad 1 wins — Auburn (28) and LSU (29) at home — but both of those teams are one loss away from potentially falling out of the Quad 1 range. They also have a pair of Quad 3 home losses. I think the dream is done for Alabama.

SOUTH CAROLINA (NET: 63, NBC: Off the bubble): The Gamecocks had a chance to play themselves into a really good spot on Saturday, but they lost to LSU (29) at home. At 16-11 overall with a Quad 3 and a Quad 4 loss, the Gamecocks have plenty of work left to do and not all that many great chances left for wins. They’re in trouble.


BUBBLE WATCH FOR EVERYONE ELSE

TOP 9: Gonzaga (NBC: 1), San Diego State (NBC: 1), BYU (NBC: 6), Saint Mary’s (NBC: 9)

UTAH STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After wiping the floor with San Jose State (280), the Aggies have won six in a row and nine of their last ten games, ensuring they are still in the NCAA tournament mix and fully turning around a season that looked like it was lost as recently as five weeks ago. Wins over LSU (29) and Florida (33) are nice, but with three road losses to sub-85 teams and no more chances to land marquee wins, how are they going to make up for those losses? They don’t play another top 100 team the rest of the season. I don’t see how they can feel comfortable about getting in without beating San Diego State (5) in the MWC tournament.

NORTHERN IOWA (NET: 46, NBC: 12): Northern Iowa snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday, beating Southern Illinois (139) and maintaining a hold on first place in the Missouri Valley. UNI has a win at Colorado (18) and they beat South Carolina (63) on a neutral court, but they are 5-3 against the top two Quads with a pair of Quad 3 losses. I want to see them get an at-large — every one of their non-Quad 1 losses is a road game in league play — but I’m not sure they have done enough to beat out some of these power conference teams.

EAST TENNESSEE STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After beating Furman (76) on Wednesday night, the Buccaneers have gotten through the toughest part of their schedule. They have a win at UNCG (62) and a win at LSU (30). With a 22-4 record and a loss to Mercer (197) at home, the Buccaneers have to win out and lose to only UNCG or Furman in the SoCon tournament to have a chance, and even that might be a bit of a longshot.