CBT Bracketology: Long wait ahead for Monmouth

(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
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This year’s NCAA tournament bubble became that much more intriguing Monday night.  If you love drama, it’s shaping up to be an intense week.  In that past two days, we’ve seen Wichita State, Monmouth, and Valparaiso join the at-large pool as conference champions with legitimate at-large hopes.  That’s three additional resumes for the Selection Committee to review, dissect, and compare at their bunker in downtown Indianapolis.  How it all shakes out by Sunday afternoon is unknown.  What we do know is that it’s going to be a long wait for Monmouth, one of this year’s most talked-about teams.

We touched on Wichita State yesterday; the Shockers are hoping a dominant run through the Missouri Valley, combined with a strong non-conference SOS and a win over Utah will hold up.  Valparaiso has a win at Oregon State, but probably needs a little more help.

Given the results of the past two days, there should be an even greater sense of urgency for those along the cutline.  If Wichita State and Monmouth both end up earning bids, there are two less slots available.

UPDATED: March 8, 2016

Now that we’ve reached Championship Week, teams in CAPS represent the AUTOMATIC bid. The other automatic bids are noted by the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament (as eligible). Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (ex: UCLA)

Several new bracketing principles were introduced a couple of years ago. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Wichita State vs. Monmouth | East Region
  • St. Bonaventure vs. Connecticut Midwest Region
  • Texas-Southern vs. AUSTIN PEAY | Midwest Region
  • Wagner vs. FLORIDA GULF COAST | South Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWEST – Chicago  EAST – Philadelphia                            
Des Moines Raleigh
1) Kansas 1) Virginia
16) Tx-Southern / AUSTIN PEAY 16) Hampton
8) Providence 8) Seton Hall
9) Pittsburgh 9) Saint Joseph’s
Providence Denver
5) Texas AM 5) Maryland
12) CHATTANOOGA 12) Ark-Little Rock
4) Purdue 4) Iowa State
13) IONA 13) YALE
Brooklyn Des Moines
6) Baylor 6) California
11) UConn / St. Bonaventure 11) Wichita State / Monmouth
3) Miami-FL 3) Indiana
14) UAB 14) S.F. Austin
Spokane St. Louis
7) Dayton 7) Notre Dame
10) Syracuse 10) USC
2) Oregon 2) Xavier
15) Weber State 15) New Mexico State
SOUTH – Louisville       WEST – Anaheim
Brooklyn Oklahoma City
1) Villanova 1) Oklahoma
16) Wagner / FLA GULF CST 16) Lehigh
8) South Carolina 8) Saint Mary’s
9) Oregon State 9) Butler
Denver Oklahoma City
5) Texas 5) Iowa
12) NORTHERN IOWA 12) Akron
4) Duke 4) Kentucky
13) Stony Brook 13) Hawaii
Providence Spokane
6) Arizona 6) Wisconsin
11) Temple 11) San Diego State
3) West Virginia 3) Utah
14) UNC-WILMINGTON 14) South Dakota St
St. Louis Raleigh
7) Colorado 7) Texas Tech
10) Cincinnati 10) Vanderbilt
2) Michigan State 2) North Carolina
15) Wright State 15) UNC-ASHEVILLE

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Virginia, Oklahoma, Villanova. Next in line: Michigan State, North Carolina, Xavier, Oregon

Last Four Byes (at large): USC, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Cincinnati

Last Four IN (at large): Wichita State, Connecticut, St. Bonaventure, Monmouth

First Four OUT (at large): VCU, Tulsa, Gonzaga, Florida

Next four teams OUT (at large): Michigan, Valparaiso, Florida State, Houston

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (7): NORTH CAROLINA, Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Pac 12 (7): OREGON, Utah, California, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon State, USC

Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech

Big 10 (6): INDIANA, Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin

Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

SEC (4): KENTUCKY, Texas AM, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Atlantic 10 (3): DAYTON, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure

American (3): TEMPLE, Cincinnati, Connecticut

Missouri Valley (2): NORTHERN IOWA, Wichita State

MAAC (2): IONA, Monmouth

West Coast (1): SAINT MARY’S

Mountain West (1): SAN DIEGO STATE

ONE BID LEAGUES: Iona (MAAC), UAB (C-USA), Ark-Little Rock (SBELT), Yale (IVY), Weber State (BSKY), Wright State (HORIZON), Stephen F. Austin (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), Hawaii (BWEST), Akron (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Austin Peay (OVC), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), UNC-Asheville (BSO), Hampton (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Stony Brook (AEAST), Lehigh (PAT), Wagner (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)