CBT Bracketology: Kansas in position to be No. 1 overall seed

(AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)
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Without an unexpected turn of events, the Kansas Jayhawks will be the No. 1 overall seed when the 2016 NCAA tournament field is announced on Sunday night.  That really shouldn’t be a surprise.  The remaining No. 1 seed lines are still up for grabs.  Virginia, Villanova, and Oklahoma are in those slots today.  The next most likely candidates are Michigan State and North Carolina.

More volatile debates will be centered around teams on the bubble.  Wichita State is a prime example.  Reasonable people can view the Shockers’ profile differently.  I imagine the same will be true of Selection Committee members when then convene in Indianapolis.  One on hand, you can point to the Shockers lack of quality wins (per the RPI) and the fact their most recent losses came with a healthy roster.  On the other hand, WSU is a team that won the Missouri Valley by four games, posting a 16-2 league record.  They were also good on the road (9-4), played a Top 25 non-conference schedule, and currently sit 11th on the Ken Pom rankings.  It’s all in the eye of the beholder, which is why it’s going to be a long week for the Shockers.

We’ll have additional updates as we move through Championship Week.  In particular, keep an eye on these conference tournaments: the Atlantic 10 and American – both have multiple teams sitting along the cutline.

UPDATED: March 7, 2016

Now that we’ve reached Championship Week, teams in CAPS represent the AUTOMATIC bid. The other automatic bids are noted by the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament (as eligible). Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (ex: UCLA)

Several new bracketing principles were introduced a couple of years ago. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Wichita State vs. VCU | East Region
  • St. Bonaventure vs. Connecticut Midwest Region
  • Texas-Southern vs. AUSTIN PEAY | Midwest Region
  • Wagner vs. FLORIDA GULF COAST | South Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWEST – Chicago  EAST – Philadelphia                             
Des Moines Raleigh
1) Kansas 1) Virginia
16) Tx-Southern / AUSTIN PEAY 16) Hampton
8) Providence 8) Seton Hall
9) Pittsburgh 9) Saint Joseph’s
Providence Denver
5) Texas AM 5) Maryland
12) Valparaiso 12) Chattanooga
4) Purdue 4) Iowa State
13) Stony Brook 13) YALE
Brooklyn Des Moines
6) Baylor 6) California
11) UConn / St. Bonaventure 11) Wichita State / VCU
3) Miami-FL 3) Indiana
14) Akron 14) S.F. Austin
Spokane St. Louis
7) Dayton 7) Notre Dame
10) Syracuse 10) USC
2) Oregon 2) Xavier
15) Weber State 15) IPFW
SOUTH – Louisville       WEST – Anaheim
Brooklyn Oklahoma City
1) Villanova 1) Oklahoma
16) Wagner / FLA GULF CST 16) Lehigh
8) South Carolina 8) Saint Mary’s
9) Oregon State 9) Butler
Denver Oklahoma City
5) Texas 5) Iowa
12) Ark-Little Rock 12) San Diego State
4) Duke 4) Kentucky
13) Hofstra 13) NORTHERN IOWA
Providence Spokane
6) Arizona 6) Wisconsin
11) Monmouth 11) Temple
3) West Virginia 3) Utah
14) UAB 14) Hawaii
St. Louis Raleigh
7) Colorado 7) Texas Tech
10) Cincinnati 10) Vanderbilt
2) Michigan State 2) North Carolina
15) New Mexico State 15) NC-ASHEVILLE

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Virginia, Oklahoma, Villanova. Next in line: Michigan State, North Carolina, Xavier, Oregon

Last Four Byes (at large): USC, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati

Last Four IN (at large): Wichita State, Connecticut, St. Bonaventure, VCU

First Four OUT (at large): Tulsa, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan

Next four teams OUT (at large): Florida State, Houston, George Washington, Georgia

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (7): NORTH CAROLINA, Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Pac 12 (7): OREGON, Utah, California, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon State, USC

Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech

Big 10 (6): INDIANA, Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin

Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler

SEC (4): KENTUCKY, Texas AM, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Atlantic 10 (4): DAYTON, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure, VCU

American (3): TEMPLE, Cincinnati, Connecticut

Missouri Valley (2): NORTHERN IOWA, Wichita State

West Coast (1): SAINT MARY’S

Mountain West (1): SAN DIEGO STATE

ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), UAB (C-USA), Ark-Little Rock (SBELT), Yale (IVY), Weber State (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), Stephen F. Austin (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), Hawaii (BWEST), Akron (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Austin Peay (OVC), Hofstra (CAA), UNC-Asheville (BSO), Hampton (MEAC), IPFW (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Stony Brook (AEAST), Lehigh (PAT), Wagner (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)