BUBBLE BANTER: Wichita State is going to be Selection Sunday’s most interesting test

By Rob DausterMar 5, 2016, 7:09 PM EST

This post will be updated throughout the day.

And now it gets really interesting for Wichita State (KenPom: 10, RPI: 41, CBT Bracketology Seed: 8).

The Shockers lost in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley tournament on Saturday afternoon to a Northern Iowa team that beat North Carolina, Iowa State and won at Wichita State earlier this season. That’s not a bad team that just picked off Gregg Marshall’s club, but it’s not a loss that the Shockers could afford.

Because they unequivocally do not have a profile that’s deserving of an at-large bid. Entering the day, they had just a single top 85 RPI win this season with three losses to sub-85 RPI teams. That’s never going to be enough to get a bid. Ever.

But there’s two factors at play here. For starters, Wichita State’s chances to land elite wins during non-conference play were lost when their star point guard Fred VanVleet went down with a hamstring injury in November. How does the Selection Committee account for that?

The other part of it is that Wichita State, prior to Saturday’s loss, sat at No. 10 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. KenPom’s numbers, for those that are unaware, are widely regarded as the most accurate rating system when it comes to college basketball teams, and it’s also worth noting that there has never been a team ranked in KenPom’s top 15 that has missed out on the NCAA tournament.

There has been a pushback against the RPI in recent years, as new and better and more accurate metrics have begun to pop up all over the place, and the Selection Committee has said that they are going to be putting more of an emphasis on those metrics when bracketing. Wichita State will likely end up being the perfect test case.

Personally, I want the committee to let Wichita State in. I’ve loved watching VanVleet and Ron Baker turn Wichita State into a nationally-relevant program. The Gonzaga of the Plains, if you will. But winning and losing matters, and the Shockers just haven’t won enough.

WINNERS

Providence (KP: 35, RPI: 38, CBT: 8): The Friars avoided losing at St. John’s today, which means that they’re going to the NCAA tournament. More importantly, a team that was struggling now has won three straight to close the regular season. Will that right the ship as we head into March?
Butler (KP: 56, RPI: 47, CBT: 10): The Bulldogs beat the breaks off of Marquette on Saturday, putting them in a position where they can probably feel pretty comfortable about getting into the NCAA tournament. I still think they want to beat Providence in their Big East tournament opener, but that wouldn’t be a bad loss. My guess is they can survive it.
St. Bonaventure (KP: 74, RPI: 29, CBT: Play-in Game): The Bonnies avoided a loss to Saint Louis on Saturday, which was not a loss they would have been able to overcome. I think they’ll be fine as long as they avoid losing to one of the landmines that they’ll run into in the Atlantic 10 tournament.
Oregon State (KP: 61, RPI: 31, CBT: 10): The Beavers did themselves a favor by winning at UCLA on a night where so many other bubble teams lost. One win in the Pac-12 tournament should lock them into the field.
Tulsa (KP: 42, RPI: 45, CBT: Play-in Game): The Golden Hurricane are super-bubbly right now, meaning that they certainly could not afford a loss to South Florida on Saturday. They did not lose to South Florida on Saturday, and they got an added bonus of seemingly every bubble team losing. Tulsa needs to win a game or two in the AAC tournament to really feel comfortable.
South Carolina (KP: 57, RPI: 52, CBT: 10): South Carolina won at Arkansas on Saturday, putting them in a position where they should probably feel pretty comfortable about their tournament standing. I think they can probably withstand a loss early in the SEC tournament, but as always, I’d strongly recommend not doing that.
Florida (KP: 46, RPI: 54, CBT: First Four Out): Florida beat Missouri on Saturday, which is not going to help their profile but certainly means that the Gators won’t have another landmine to their name. Florida, unfortunately, does not currently have enough good wins on the résumé. They need to win one or two games in the SEC tournament to have a real chance at this thing.
Saint Mary’s (KP: 34, RPI: 39, CBT: 10): I’m going to go ahead and assume that they only reason I’m seeing Saint Mary’s in brackets is because they are the top seed in the WCC tournament. I have no idea how they can be a projected at-large team. They beat LMU tonight.

LOSERS

Vanderbilt (KenPom: 24, RPI: 46, CBT Bracketology Seed: 9): The Commodores had a chance to win a share of the SEC regular season title and all-but lock up a tournament bid with a win at No. 20 Texas A&M today. They lost, and while that is not the kind of loss that is going to drop them to the wrong side of the cut-line, it does affect their margin for error in the SEC tournament. They need to win at least one to feel comfortable, I believe.
Pitt (KP: 41, RPI: 44, CBT: 9): After knocking off Duke last Saturday, all the Panthers had to do to avoid becoming bubble fodder again was win one of their last two games. They couldn’t manage that, and as a result, here we are. On Saturday, Pitt lost at Georgia Tech, just a couple of days after they lost at Virginia Tech. Wins over Duke and at Notre Dame are nice, but the Panthers are not quite as safe as that No. 9 seed might indicate. I’d recommend winning a game or two in the ACC tournament.
VCU (KP: 38, RPI: 42, CBT: 11): VCU had a great chance to win at Dayton on Saturday night, a win that would have locked up their at-large status and given them the outright Atlantic 10 regular season title. The Rams lost, however, and while that’s not going to be a killer for their profile, it’s a step in the wrong direction. They’re on the right side of the bubble as of today, but it would be nice to see them add a win or two in the A-10 tournament to avoid the stress.
USC (KP: 51, RPI: 35, CBT: 10): The Trojans are probably still safe after losing to Oregon at home on Saturday, but they certainly didn’t do themselves any favors from a seeding standpoint by losing six of their last eight games. Four top 50 wins, an 11-11 record against the top 100 and no sub-100 losses should allow them to avoid the play-in game at minimum.
Michigan (KP: 49, RPI: 59, CBT: Play-in Game): Michigan lost to No. 16 Iowa at home on Saturday, which is the loss that I think relegates them to the NIT. Without Caris LeVert, this Michigan team just hasn’t been that good.
George Washington (KP: 69, RPI: 60, CBT: Next Four Out): The Colonials lost at Davidson on Saturday, putting them in a position where they probably need to earn the Atlantic 10’s automatic bid to go dancing.
Alabama (KP: 88, RPI: 63, CBT: First Four Out): The Crimson Tide lost at Georgia on Saturday, meaning they’ve now dropped four of their last five games. I think they need to get to at least the SEC finals to really have a chance at an at-large.
Ohio State (KP: 64, RPI: 76, CBT: Next Four Out): The Buckeyes needed to win at Michigan State today to really have a chance at an at-large. They lost.
LSU (KP: 77, RPI: 85, CBT: Next Four Out): The Tigers lost at Kentucky. They’re going to need to get that automatic bid if they want to dance.

UCLA guard Jaylen Clark declares for NBA draft

Associated PressMar 30, 2023, 12:33 AM EDT

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

LOS ANGELES – UCLA guard Jaylen Clark has declared for the NBA draft, weeks after a leg injury forced him out of the season’s final six games.

The junior from Riverside, California, announced his plans on his Instagram account Wednesday.

“Thank you to UCLA and coach (Mick) Cronin for believing in me,” Clark’s post read. “I’d like to announce that I am declaring for the 2023 draft.”

Clark didn’t indicate whether he would hire an agent ahead of the June 22 draft or retain his remaining eligibility. He has until May 31 to withdraw and be able to return to Westwood.

He suffered a lower right leg injury in the regular-season finale against Arizona on March 4. Clark averaged 13 points and six rebounds while starting 29 of 30 games. He led the Pac-12 in total steals with 78, tying for third all-time in single-season steals for the Bruins.

He was a second team All-Pac-12 selection, was named the league’s defensive player of the year and made its five-man All-Defensive Team.

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AP college basketball: https://apnews.com/hub/college-basketball and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-basketball-poll and https://twitter.com/AP-Top25

Penn State hires VCU’s Rhoades as men’s basketball coach

Associated PressMar 30, 2023, 12:29 AM EDT

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State hired VCU’s Mike Rhoades on Wednesday as its men’s basketball coach, bringing in the Pennsylvania native to take over a program coming off its first NCAA Tournament appearance in more than a decade.

The Penn State board of trustees approved a seven-year deal worth $25.9 million for Rhoades, who is from Mahanoy City in eastern Pennsylvania.

Just a few hours after Rhoades was named at Penn State, VCU hired Utah State coach Ryan Odom to replace Rhoades.

Rhoades replaces Micah Shrewsberry, who was hired away by Notre Dame last week.

Shrewsberry, an Indiana native, was at Penn State for two seasons. The Nittany Lions went 23-14 this season, reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011 and won an NCAA game for the first time since 2001.

Rhoades, 50, was 129-61 in six seasons at VCU, including three NCAA Tournament bids. He also spent three seasons at Rice, going 23-12 in the final year with the Owls before returning to VCU.

He was an assistant at the Richmond, Virginia, school from 2009-14 under then-head coach Shaka Smart.

Odom was 44-25 at Utah State in two seasons, with an NCAA Tournament appearance this season.

He previously spent five seasons at Maryland-Baltimore County, going 97-60. In 2018, Odom’s UMBC team became the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when it beat Virginia.

Temple hires Penn State assistant Fisher to replace McKie

Associated PressMar 30, 2023, 12:25 AM EDT

Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

PHILADELPHIA – Temple named Penn State assistant Adam Fisher just its fifth coach since 1973 on Wednesday.

Fisher’s goal will be to turn around a program that hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2019.

Fisher replaces Aaron McKie, who was transferred out of the coaching job earlier this month after four seasons and a 52-56 overall record with no tournament berths. McKie is now a special advisor to the athletic department.

Fisher takes over a team in flux with six players in the transfer portal. Temple has yet to find any steady success in the American Athletic Conference.

Fisher spent eight years as an assistant with Miami before he joined Micah Shrewsberry’s staff last season at Penn State. Shrewsberry has since moved on to Notre Dame.

“I am confident we have found the right person to lead Temple men’s basketball,” athletic director Arthur Johnson said. “We look forward to welcoming coach Fisher to the Temple community and returning to the NCAA Tournament under his leadership.”

Fisher also worked as a graduate manager at Villanova under Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright from 2007-09.

The Owls have traditionally given their coaches significant time on the bench, though McKie’s tenure was the shortest since Ernest Messikomer from 1939-42. The next five coaches all lasted at least 10 seasons, notably Hall of Fame coach John Chaney’s tenure from 1982-2006.

Cal hires Mark Madsen as basketball coach

Associated PressMar 30, 2023, 12:20 AM EDT

Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

BERKELEY, Calif. – California is hiring a former Stanford star to revive its struggling basketball program.

The Golden Bears announced Wednesday that Mark Madsen was signed to replace the fired Mark Fox following the worst season in school history.

“We conducted an exhaustive search, and one name kept rising to the top – and that’s Mark Madsen,” athletic director Jim Knowlton said. “Mark is a person of high character, high energy, high intensity, and he’s done it the right way. He’s intense. He’s passionate. He loves his student-athletes, and he loves competing. We want an ambassador for this program who is going to make us proud and develop our young men – both on and off the court. I am absolutely thrilled that Mark will lead our program into the future.”

Madsen played at Stanford under Mike Montgomery, who later coached at Cal, from 1996 to 2000 and helped the Cardinal reach the Final Four in 1998.

After a nine-year playing career in the NBA that featured two titles as a backup on the Lakers in 2001-02, Madsen went into coaching.

He spent time in the NBA’s developmental league and a year at Stanford before spending five seasons on the Lakers staff.

Madsen then was hired in 2019 to take over Utah Valley. He posted a 70-51 record in four years with a 28-9 mark this season before losing on Tuesday night in the NIT semifinals to UAB.

“Having grown up in the area, I have always admired Cal as an institution and as an athletic program, with so many of my teachers, coaches and friends impressive Cal graduates,” Madsen said. “We will win with young men who have elite academic and athletic talent and who will represent Cal with pride.”

Madsen is the third prominent coach to flip sides in recent years in the Bay Area rivalry between Cal and Stanford. The Cardinal hired former Cal quarterback Troy Taylor to take over the football program last season and Bears women’s basketball coach Charmin Smith played and coached as an assistant at Stanford.

Madsen is faced with a tough task, taking over a program that went 3-29 under Fox and set a school record for most losses and worst winning percentage in a season.

Cal went 38-87 during Fox’s tenure, ending his final season on a 16-game losing streak. Fox’s .304 winning percentage ranking second worst in school history to predecessor Wyking Jones’ 16-47 mark (.254) in the two seasons before Fox arrived.

The Bears haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2016 and haven’t won a game in the tournament since 2013 under Montgomery.

Adding to the issues for Fox was the complete lack of interest in the program. Cal’s home attendance averaged just 2,155 this season for the lowest mark among any team in the Power 5 or Big East. That’s down from an average of 9,307 per game in Cuonzo Martin’s last season in 2016-17 and from 5,627 the year before Fox arrived.

Cal had the worst winning percentage among any school in the six major conferences during Fox’s tenure. The Bears also were the lowest-scoring team (62.4 points per game) in all Division I under Fox and had the worst scoring margin of any major conference team under Fox.

Brea Beal’s defense lifts South Carolina to Final Four

Associated PressMar 29, 2023, 3:02 PM EDT

COLUMBIA, S.C. – Brea Beal is not just South Carolina’s X factor in one of the country’s best defenses but also a four-year lesson in sacrifice and reinvention that may add a second straight NCAA title to her resume.

Beal is generally third when most think of the landmark recruiting class from 2019 led by heralded All-American Aliyah Boston and Zia Cooke. But she could have the most critical role at the Final Four, most likely checking Iowa’s All-American Caitlin Clark in the national semifinals.

The Gamecocks (36-0) face the Hawkeyes (30-6) in the second game in Dallas on Friday night, with the winner playing LSU or Virginia Tech for the national title on Sunday.

Beal, who has started 136 of 137 games in her four seasons, and her senior teammates have racked up championships in their time. They have won three Southeastern Conference Tournament titles, have been to three straight Final Fours and are chasing their second NCAA crown.

Beal takes on the opponent’s best player and, more times than not, limits her effectiveness – a role that took Beal time to embrace.

“It definitely came with some hardship, but throughout time I just walked into it,” she said at the Greenville 1 Regional last weekend.

It wasn’t a path Beal envisioned after a celebrated prep career. She was a three-time Illinois Ms. Basketball from Rock Island High School, averaging 20 or more points a game her final three seasons. Beal joined Candace Parker and Tamika Catchings as the only players in the state to earn that award as a sophomore.

Beal expected to make the offensive impact that Boston and Cooke have had with the Gamecocks.

“It’s not necessarily something I was like, ‘I’m this defender, I’m the best defender,’” Beal said. “It came naturally, just as well as offensively, it’s just something you’ve got to be patient and just accept as time goes.”

Gamecocks coach Dawn Staley sees Beal’s value as more than what she does on the court. Beal, overlooked sometimes behind Boston and Cooke, didn’t look to transfer in the portal era or complain about her scoring. She has kept her head down, Staley said, and made herself an indispensable part of the undefeated defending national champions.

“It took her time to just really relax and see where she can find spots to be effective,” Staley said. “Now that she’s a senior, she sees it.”

Clark, the Iowa star, would have to be one of Beal’s most difficult assignments. Clark had a triple-double – 41 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds – in the Hawkeyes’ 97-83 victory over Louisville to reach their first Final Four in 30 years.

Clark is not one-dimensional – “I pride myself in doing a lot of different things for this team,” she said – and Beal understands it will take a team effort to slow her down.

South Carolina has relied on its defense throughout Beal’s time and this year’s run is no different. The Gamecocks lead the country in blocks and rebound margin, are second in field-goal percentage defense and are third in points allowed.

Cooke believes it’s Beal’s defensive focus that has all the Gamecocks looking to raise their intensity on that side of their game. “She’s the one that taught us how to play defense,” Cooke said. “Especially me. Just watching her and the things she does definitely wore off on me.”

Cooke’s offense may be elevating Beal’s game as of late. Beal has scored in double digits in eight games this season, seven of those since the start of February. She had 10 points in a 59-43 win over UCLA in the Sweet 16 and 16 in an 86-75 victory over Maryland in the Elite Eight.

Once considered the most likely of the 2019 freshmen class to play an extra season, the dual threat has been rising in WNBA mock drafts. ESPN.com has projected her getting called seventh in next month’s draft, going to the Indiana Fever in the first round.

Beal isn’t worried about her pro prospects or savoring all she’s accomplished. She only wants to finish her college career with another championship moment – and that means dialing up the defense.

“We’re a defensively minded team,” she said. “When we come to this part of the season, we definitely need our defense from every single individual.”