This post will be updated throughout the night.
Just three weeks ago, Florida (KenPom: 44, RPI: 46, CBT Bracketology Seed: Play-in Game) looked close to a lock for the NCAA tournament. Their computer numbers were terrific and they were coming off of a blowout home win over West Virginia that A) gave them a win to put at the top of their profile, and B) made it seem like they would be able to pick up the wins they needed to add to bolster their résumé down the stretch.
But they haven’t done that.
Instead, the Gators have lost their last four games, five of the last six and six of the last eight. They have just one loss outside the top 100, but they’re 2-10 against the top 50, 7-12 against the top 100 and 17-13 overall. Throw in the fact that, as they’ve continued to lose these games, their computer numbers have taken a hit, and what you get is a team that suddenly looks like they’re on the wrong side of the bubble.
- Vanderbilt (KP: 23, RPI: 48, CBT: 9): The Commodores beat the breaks off of Tennessee on Tuesday night, a win that they needed because they simply couldn’t afford another bad loss. Dave Ommen, our resident bracketologist, has Vanderbilt in as a No. 9 seed, which seems high to me. I think they probably needed to win at Texas A&M or win two games in the SEC tournament, depending on who they draw, to really feel comfortable.
- George Washington (KP: 72, RPI: 56, CBT: Next Four Out): The dream is still alive for the Colonials after beating George Mason. They probably need to win at least a game or two in the Atlantic 10 tournament to have a reach chance at getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
- LSU (KP: 73, RPI: 86, CBT: Next Four Out): There are apparently still people that think LSU still has a chance to dance, so I’ll put there here for now. Even with a win over Missouri, I don’t think they still have a shot at this.
- Saint Mary’s (KP: 35, RPI: 50, CBT: 10): There’s still a glimmer of hope that Saint Mary’s can get in without winning the automatic bid, and that hope is alive after they beat Grand Canyon tonight.