Apparently, there’s a fascination with this year’s carrousel, otherwise known as the NCAA tournament bubble. Teams grab a seat, take a couple of spins on an open seed line, and then return to the ticket booth to purchase another ride. While that is all well and good at the moment, the Selection Committee will remove a few seats come Selection Sunday. By rule, the final trip through March Madness can only have 68 seats.
Looking at today’s hopefuls, we find about 30 teams whose seats are uncertain. Their goal is to work themselves toward the front of the line, to provide a little breathing room if an unexpected rider (automatic qualifier) arrives. No one wants to be the first team outside the gate when the Madness begins.
Enjoy your weekend of hoops. Our next update arrives on Monday.
UPDATED: February 19, 2016
Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. In the event of a tie in the loss column, RPI is first tiebreaker. Notes: To simulate actual bracket conditions, we’ve used current conference leaders to receive the automatic bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (ex: UCLA)
Several new bracketing principles were introduced a couple of years ago. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.
FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)
- Oregon State vs. LSU | East Region
- Texas Tech vs. Butler | West Region
- BUCKNELL vs. WAGNER | East Region
- HAMPTON vs. TEXAS-SOUTHERN | Midwest Region
BRACKET PROJECTION …
MIDWEST – Chicago | EAST – Philadelphia | |
Des Moines | Brooklyn | |
1) KANSAS | 1) VILLANOVA | |
16) TX-SOUTHERN / HAMPTON | 16) BUCKNELL / WAGNER | |
8) Providence | 8) Pittsburgh | |
9) Florida | 9) Alabama | |
Spokane | Denver | |
5) Utah | 5) Texas | |
12) CHATTANOOGA | 12) ARK-LITTLE ROCK | |
4) Purdue | 4) KENTUCKY | |
13) AKRON | 13) STONY BROOK | |
Providence | Brooklyn | |
6) Baylor | 6) Indiana | |
11) MONMOUTH | 11) Oregon State / LSU | |
3) MIAMI-FL | 3) West Virginia | |
14) NC-WILMINGTON | 14) YALE | |
Des Moines | Raleigh | |
7) USC | 7) Connecticut | |
10) GONZAGA | 10) Wisconsin | |
2) IOWA | 2) North Carolina | |
15) SOUTH DAKOTA ST | 15) NC-ASHEVILLE | |
WEST – Anaheim | SOUTH – Louisville | |
Oklahoma City | Raleigh | |
1) Oklahoma | 1) Virginia | |
16) MONTANA | 16) NORTH FLORIDA | |
8) Saint Joseph’s | 8) South Carolina | |
9) Seton Hall | 9) Colorado | |
Denver | Oklahoma City | |
5) Duke | 5) DAYTON | |
12) SAN DIEGO STATE | 12) TEMPLE | |
4) Arizona | 4) Iowa State | |
13) HAWAII | 13) VALPARAISO | |
Providence | Spokane | |
6) Notre Dame | 6) Texas A&M | |
11) Texas Tech / Butler | 11) WICHITA STATE | |
3) Maryland | 3) OREGON | |
14) UAB | 14) S.F. AUSTIN | |
St. Louis | St. Louis | |
7) California | 7) Syracuse | |
10) Michigan | 10) VCU | |
2) Xavier | 2) Michigan State | |
15) NEW MEXICO ST | 15) BELMONT |
NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Villanova, Virginia, and Oklahoma. Next in line: Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan State, Iowa
Last Four Byes (at large): Alabama, Wisconsin, Michigan, VCU
Last Four IN (at large): Texas Tech, Oregon State, LSU, Butler
First Four OUT (at large): Tulsa, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, George Washington
Next four teams OUT (at large): Clemson, Florida State, St. Bonaventure, Washington
Breakdown by Conference …
ACC (7): MIAMI-FL, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh
Pac 12 (7): OREGON, Arizona, Utah, USC, California, Colorado, Oregon State
Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech
Big 10 (7): IOWA, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan
Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Butler
SEC (6): KENTUCKY, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, LSU
Atlantic 10 (3): DAYTON, Saint Joseph’s, VCU
American (2): TEMPLE, Connecticut
West Coast (1): GONZAGA
Mountain West (1): SAN DIEGO STATE
Missouri Valley (1): WICHITA STATE
ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), UAB (C-USA), Ark-Little Rock (SBELT), Yale (IVY), Montana (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), Stephen F. Austin (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), Hawaii (BWEST), Akron (MAC), North Florida (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), UNC-Asheville (BSO), Hampton (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Stony Brook (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Wagner (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)