As we settle in for the final push toward Selection Sunday, the race for No. 1 seeds is as open as it’s been in several years. With its victory at Oklahoma on Saturday, Kansas resides in today’s Pole Position. The aforementioned Sooners are close behind, followed by Villanova and North Carolina.
Within that group of four, Villanova has the easiest path to retain a No. 1 seed. If you look at the Wildcats’ remaining schedule, they should be favored in every game – with the exception of their trip to Xavier. As such, Nova could be 27-4 (assuming just one more loss – which is a dangerous thing this season) heading into the Big East Tournament. Given the likelihood that a few of the other No. 1 contenders will also lose another game or two, it leaves Villanova in prime position to be a top seed next month. It may or may not be in the East Region.
Who are the other No. 1 seed contenders? Today’s two-line includes Virginia, Xavier, Iowa, and West Virginia. We would also have to include Maryland, Michigan State, and Miami-FL. Could someone else sneak in? It’s possible, but not as likely – given the teams ahead of them. Even so, the fact that we have 11 teams in play at this point in February is quite remarkable.
The bubble remains an on-going merry-go-round that’s unlikely to change. Championship Week is shaping up to be an important separator for the final at-large positions.
UPDATED: February 15, 2016
Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. In the event of a tie in the loss column, RPI is first tiebreaker. Notes: To simulate actual bracket conditions, we’ve used current conference leaders to receive the automatic bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (ex: UCLA)
Several new bracketing principles were introduced a couple of years ago. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.
FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)
- Cincinnati vs. Florida State | Midwest Region
- VCU vs. Alabama | South Region
- BUCKNELL vs. WAGNER | Midwest Region
- HAMPTON vs. TEXAS-SOUTHERN | South Region
BRACKET PROJECTION …
MIDWEST – Chicago | SOUTH – Louisville | |
Des Moines | Oklahoma City | |
1) KANSAS | 1) Oklahoma | |
16) MONTANA | 16) BUCKNELL / WAGNER | |
8) California | 8) Colorado | |
9) Michigan | 9) Saint Joseph’s | |
Spokane | Denver | |
5) Utah | 5) Purdue | |
12) ARK-LITTLE ROCK | 12) WICHITA STATE | |
4) DAYTON | 4) KENTUCKY | |
13) VALPARAISO | 13) AKRON | |
Providence | Spokane | |
6) South Carolina | 6) Indiana | |
11) TEMPLE | 11) VCU / Alabama | |
3) Miami-FL | 3) OREGON | |
14) YALE | 14) SOUTH DAKOTA ST | |
Des Moines | St. Louis | |
7) USC | 7) Syracuse | |
10) Florida St / Cincinnati | 10) Florida | |
2) IOWA | 2) Xavier | |
15) S.F. AUSTIN | 15) NEW MEXICO ST | |
WEST- Anaheim | EAST- Philadelphia | |
Raleigh | Brooklyn | |
1) NORTH CAROLINA | 1) VILLANOVA | |
16) Tx-Southern / Hampton | 16) NORTH FLORIDA | |
8) Pittsburgh | 8) Connecticut | |
9) Wisconsin | 9) LSU | |
Denver | Oklahoma City | |
5) Texas | 5) Notre Dame | |
12) SAN DIEGO STATE | 12) CHATTANOOGA | |
4) Arizona | 4) Iowa State | |
13) HAWAII | 13) STONY BROOK | |
Providence | St. Louis | |
6) Duke | 6) Texas AM | |
11) GONZAGA | 11) MONMOUTH | |
3) Maryland | 3) Michigan State | |
14) NC-WILMINGTON | 14) UAB | |
Brooklyn | Raleigh | |
7) Providence | 7) Baylor | |
10) Oregon State | 10) Seton Hall | |
2) West Virginia | 2) Virginia | |
15) NC-ASHEVILLE | 15) BELMONT |
NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Oklahoma, Villanova, and North Carolina. Next in line: Virginia, Xavier, Iowa, West Virginia
Last Four Byes (at large): Wisconsin, Florida, Seton Hall, Oregon State
Last Four IN (at large): Florida State, VCU, Cincinnati, Alabama
First Four OUT (at large): Saint Mary’s, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Washington
Next four teams OUT (at large): Clemson, George Washington, Butler, St. Bonaventure
Breakdown by Conference …
ACC (8): NORTH CAROLINA, Virginia, Miami-FL, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Florida State
Pac 12 (7): OREGON, Arizona, Utah, USC, Colorado, California, Oregon State
Big 10 (7): IOWA, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin
Big 12 (6): KANSAS, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor
SEC (6): KENTUCKY, Texas AM, South Carolina, LSU, Florida, Alabama
Big East (4): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall
Atlantic 10 (3): DAYTON, Saint Joseph’s, VCU
American (3): TEMPLE, Connecticut, Cincinnati
West Coast (1): GONZAGA
Mountain West (1): SAN DIEGO STATE
MAAC (1): MONMOUTH
Missouri Valley (1): WICHITA STATE
ONE BID LEAGUES: UAB (C-USA), Ark-Little Rock (SBELT), Yale (IVY), Montana (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), Stephen F. Austin (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), Hawaii (BWEST), Akron (MAC), North Florida (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), UNC-Asheville (BSO), Hampton (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Stony Brook (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Wagner (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)