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Pac-12 Preview: Expect a tight race at the top

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Beginning in October and running up through November 13th, the first day of the regular season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2015-2016 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

Today, we are previewing the Pac-12.

Sean Miller’s Arizona Wildcats were expected to win the Pac-12 in 2014-15 and that’s exactly how things played out, with Arizona winning the league’s regular season and tournament titles while leading the way in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But with four starters from that 34-4 team having moved on, the Wildcats will have a much different look this season even with the amount of talent added by Miller and his staff. That opens the door for other contenders, with multiple teams having the combination of returnees and newcomers needed to make a run at the Pac-12 crown.

FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW:

1. Two decisions within a four-week span changed California’s expectations in a big way: With Tyrone Wallace, Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird back and Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo eligible to play, California was in a position to rebound from a tough 2014-15 season. But things changed when five-star prospects Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown committed within a four-week period to play for Cuonzo Martin. Now the Golden Bears are a team many have pegged as capable of not only winning the Pac-12 but making waves nationally as well.

2. Arizona reloads with a combination of transfers and highly touted freshmen: With T.J. McConnell being a senior and Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley expected to be headed to the pro ranks, Arizona prepared for the likelihood that they’d have a lot of holes to fill in their roster. So Arizona added a quartet of quality freshmen led by guard Allonzo Trier, a grad student in former San Francisco combo forward Mark Tollefsen, and two transfers who sat out last season in Kadeem Allen (redshirted after arriving from Hutchinson CC) and Ryan Anderson (Boston College). This group will join returnees led by senior center Kaleb Tarczewski in hopes of keeping the Wildcats on top of the Pac-12.

3. Bobby Hurley takes over at Arizona State: There was just one coaching change in the Pac-12, with Arizona State moving on from Herb Sendek and bringing in one of the greatest point guards in college basketball history. Hurley may have only two years of college head coaching experience under his belt but they were a productive two years, as he led Buffalo to 19 wins in 2013-14 and an NCAA tournament appearance last season. A tough non-conference schedule will test the Sun Devils before Pac-12 play begins, but Hurley can call upon players such as guards Tra Holder and Gerry Blakes and forward Savon Goodman in his debut in Tempe.

4. Just two first team All Pac-12 selections from last season return: Only the aforementioned Wallace, who’s an early frontrunner for Pac-12 Player of the Year, and Oregon State senior guard Gary Payton II (who, amidst some controversy, won Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year) return to campus this season. And of the five players who earned second team all-conference honors only two (Oregon forward Elgin Cook and Utah guard Brandon Taylor) are back. That opens up a lot of slots for those two teams, especially with the conference placing ten players on its first team.

5. Oregon State added one of the best recruiting classes in program history: Much of the focus on this group will be on Tres Tinkle and Stephen Thompson Jr., due not only to their talent but also the fact that their fathers are on staff at OSU. Head coach Wayne Tinkle landed a six-member freshman class expected to give the program the additional depth and talent they missed a season ago. Oregon State won 17 games in Tinkle’s debut, and with all five starters back (led by Payton) they could make a run at the program’s first NCAA bid since 1990.

MORE: 2015-16 Season Preview Coverage | Conference Previews | Preview Schedule

COACH’S TAKE:

  • Favorite: “Nine of the 12 teams are returning at least three starters, so most of the teams are returning a lot of experience and a lot of those teams had good seasons on top of that. I think the league’s going to be deeper than it was last year, and I thought it was good last year. I expect Arizona, Cal, UCLA, Utah and Oregon that either return a lot or are bringing in a lot of heralded players. So I think those are the teams people are expecting to have really strong seasons.”
  • Best player: “I think Tyrone Wallace is poised to have a really good year. He’s a senior, and all the experience he’s gained I expect him to have a big year. Jakob Poeltl’s poised to have a really good sophomore season as he’s really talented, and I think Josh Scott too. The injuries really slowed his (junior) year down, and you could tell he just wasn’t right. If he’s healthy he’s formidable as well.”
  • Most underrated player: “A player who to me doesn’t get the respect he really deserves is Bryce Alford. I think the expectations on him are so high, and having competed against him and watching his game I think he’s an underrated player.”

PRESEASON PAC-12 PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Tyrone Wallace, California

Wallace returns to Berkeley as one of the top point guards (and players, period) in the country. As a junior the Bakersfield native averaged 17.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game, and he was named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award as a result. With the amount of talent around him, Wallace will be able to continue to be a playmaker while not having as much pressure on him to score.

THE REST OF THE ALL PAC-12 FIRST TEAM:

  • Gary Payton II, Oregon State: Payton ranked first on his team in scoring, rebounding and steals and second in assists and blocks last season.
  • Jaylen Brown, California: In a conference that won’t lack for talented freshmen, this Georgia native may be the best of the bunch. He’ll play multiple positions for the Golden Bears.
  • Elgin Cook, Oregon: One could argue that teammate Dillon Brooks would be a good choice here. But don’t overlook Cook, who averaged 13.0 points and 5.2 rebounds per game last season.
  • Jakob Poeltl, Utah: Poeltl (9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) didn’t land on either all-conference team last season, but he’s added some weight and has the tools needed to make sure that doesn’t happen this time around.

FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW:

  • Ryan Anderson and Ray Smith, Arizona
  • Bryce Alford and Jonah Bolden, UCLA
  • Brandon Taylor, Utah
  • Tyler Dorsey, Oregon
  • Ivan Rabb, California

BREAKOUT STAR: Dillon Brooks, Oregon

Brooks was one of the top freshmen in the Pac-12 last season, averaging 11.5 points and 4.9 rebounds per contest. He, like teammate Tyler Dorsey (Greece), made a positive impression at the FIBA U19 World Championships (18.8 ppg) this summer and earned a spot on Canada’s silver medal squad at the Pan-American games as well. With Joseph Young in the NBA the Ducks will need Brooks to step forward as a scorer, and he’s capable of doing so.

COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Lorenzo Romar, Washington

The Huskies haven’t reached the NCAA tournament since 2011 and they missed out on postseason play in each of the last two years. What works in Romar’s favor is the fact that they’ve recruited well in the 2015 class, and they’ve got a five-star prospect in Markelle Fultz coming in next season. The Huskies will be very young this year, which may provide a buffer of sorts for the coaching staff.

ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING … : can any of these team’s end the Pac-12’s Final Four dry spell?

I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT : the race for the Pac-12 title, which should be tight throughout.

FIVE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES TO CIRCLE ON YOUR CALENDAR:

  • December 3, Kentucky at UCLA
  • December 4, Oregon vs. UNLV (at MGM Grand, Las Vegas)
  • December 5, Arizona at Gonzaga
  • December 19, Utah vs. Duke (in New York)
  • December 22, California at Virginia

ONE TWITTER FEED TO FOLLOW@pachoopsab

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Arizona: The newcomers may be the focus, but mainstays such as Tarczewski, Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Gabe York will be just as important for this group.
2. Oregon: Losing Joseph Young hurts, but their returnees don’t lack for talent and the additions have given them needed depth on the perimeter (Dorsey, Dylan Ennis) and in the paint (Chris Boucher).
3. California: The talent is most certainly there for a Pac-12 title run. But do the Golden Bears have the interior depth (Kameron Rooks missed last season with a torn ACL) they need to get it done?
4. Utah: The one starter who didn’t return (Delon Wright) was a huge factor, but the Runnin’ Utes have enough back to make this prediction look conservative come March.
5. UCLA: The additions of Aaron Holiday and Jonah Bolden certainly help as the Bruins look to account for the loss of NBA draft pick Norman Parker.
6. Oregon State: Is this the year that Oregon State’s NCAA tournament drought ends? It could be, depending upon how the newcomers and returnees mesh.
7. Arizona State: Four of the team’s top five scorers from last season return, and South Plains JC transfer gives them another perimeter scoring option.
8. Colorado: Josh Scott’s one of the top post players in the Pac-12. But the Buffaloes will need breakthrough seasons from Dominique Collier and George King in light of Xavier Johnson’s Achilles injury.
9. USC: The Trojans are young but they won’t lack for talent, especially with freshman forwards Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu in the fold. They need Jordan McLaughlin to stay healthy though.
10. Stanford: The triumvirate of Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown and Stefan Nastic have moved on, leaving Johnny Dawkins with a young team that includes sophomores Robert Cartwright, Reid Travis and Michael Humphrey.
11. Washington: Senior guard Andrew Andrews will lead an incredibly young team, with freshmen such as Dejounte Murray, Marquese Chriss and Noah Dickerson among those who will compete for minutes.
12. Washington State: Josh Hawkinson, the league’s most improved player last season, is back as are two other starters. But the loss of DaVonte’ Lacy leaves a big void for Ernie Kent to account for.

CBT Podcast: Is Florida State the best team in the ACC?

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Rob Dauster and Bobby Reagan are back to talk through what has been a fun week in college basketball, from Florida State’s win over Louisville to Maryland’s win over Minnesota to Duke’s loss at Wake Forest. They also dive into the Player of the Year race and take a look at the weekend’s biggest games.

Bubble Banter: Who helped their NCAA tournament standing?

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There is plenty of action happening on the bracketology bubble watch despite it being a relatively slow night for college hoops.

Dave Ommen’s latest bracketology can be found here. Rob Dauster’s Bubble Watch can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.

Here is everything you need to know to.

THE BUBBLE WATCH WINNERS

VIRGINIA (NET: 52, NBC: 9): Virginia won for the fifth straight time on Wednesday, blowing a huge lead at Virginia Tech (84) before Kihei Clark saved the day with a buzzer-beating win. They only have three Quad 1 wins and a 10-6 mark against the top two Quads with home dates left against Duke (6) and Louisville (8). They’re getting closer to a spot where they can afford a slip-up, but picking up one of those elite wins should do the trick and get them dancing.

ARKANSAS (NET: 45, NBC: Next four out): Arkansas won the second straight game with Isaiah Joe back on Wednesday, working over Tennessee (65) in Fayetteville. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins and a 4-10 mark against the top two Quads, but the more important record is this: They are now 17-5 on the season with a healthy Isaiah Joe. It will be very interesting to see how the selection committee handles Arkansas.

SOUTH CAROLINA (NET: 63, NBC: Off the bubble): The Gamecocks snapped a two-game losing streak and avoided disaster by beating Georgia (90) in overtime at home on Wednesday. With just one Quad 1 opportunity left on their schedule — at Alabama (40) on Saturday — I think Frank Martin’s club needs to win out to get in.

STANFORD (NET: 31, NBC: First four out): The Cardinal are now on a three-game winning streak after beating Utah (82) at home. They are just 3-5 against Quad 1 opponents, 6-8 against the top two Quads and have a Quad 3 loss — at Cal (142) — to their name, but they are playing well at the most important time of their season. They still get Colorado (12) at home and Oregon (19) on the road, so there will be chances to improve their resume, but the Cardinal will need to capitalize on those to feel good on Selection Sunday.

RHODE ISLAND (NET: 38, NBC: 10): Disaster almost struck for the Rams on Wednesday, as they went into Fordham (277) and barely avoided what would have been a devastating loss. They’re now 20-7 overall with just one Quad 1 win, but they are 6-6 against the top two Quads. The loss to Brown (218) is ugly, but as long as URI avoids the landmines on their schedule, I think they can get an at-large even with a loss to Dayton (5) at home in March.

RICHMOND (NET: 50, NBC: First four out): The Spiders avoided disaster at George Washington (189) on Wednesday. Richmond had their five-game winning streak snapped on the road against St. Bonaventure (113), which is not a bad loss in real life but is a bad loss on an NCAA tournament resume. The Spiders only have one truly terrible loss to their name — Radford (162) got them on a neutral court — but with only three Quad 1 wins and a 4-6 record against the top two Quads, their margin for error is completely gone.

EAST TENNESSEE STATE (NET: 39, NBC: 11): The Buccaneers survived a trip to Wofford (151) on Wednesday night. ETSU has gotten through the toughest part of their schedule. They have a win at UNCG (62) and a win at LSU (30). With a 22-4 record and a Quad 4 loss to Mercer (197) at home, the Buccaneers have to win out and lose to only UNCG or Furman in the SoCon tournament to have a chance, and even that might be a bit of a longshot.

NORTHERN IOWA (NET: 46, NBC: 12): Northern Iowa took care of business against a bad Evansville team on Wednesday. UNI has a win at Colorado (18) and they beat South Carolina (63) on a neutral court, but they are 5-3 against the top two Quads with a pair of Quad 3 losses. I want to see them get an at-large — every one of their non-Quad 1 losses is a road game in league play — but I’m not sure they have done enough to beat out some of these power conference teams.

… AND LOSERS

RUTGERS (NET: 34, NBC: 10):  The Scarlet Knights have one of the weirder resumes on the bubble right now after losing at Penn State (25) on Wednesday. They’re 19-11 overall and they are 9-9 in a Big Ten that is as deep as any league I can remember. They have three Quad 1 wins, just one Quad 3 loss and a 7-10 mark against the top two Quads. Eight of their ten losses are to Quad 1 opponents. They played a tough non-conference schedule, and they have some really impressive home wins. The problem? They’ve only won a single game outside of the RAC this year, and that came at Nebraska (183), who is the worst team in the Big Ten. Their season finishes with Maryland (7) and at Purdue (37). Rutgers has some work left to do, and I really think they will want to win both to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

GEORGETOWN (NET: 59, NBC: Next four out): The Hoyas are now sitting at 15-13 overall with a 5-10 record in the Big East and games left at Creighton (11) and against Villanova (10) at home. They have four Quad 1 wins and nine wins against the top two Quads, but they are just 4-11 against Quad 1 opponents. I think they need to win out during the regular season to get an at-large bid.

Wednesday’s Things to Know: Minnesota’s loss is Maryland’s gain, Penn State survives Rutgers and Kihei Clark delivers

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Some wild finishes from around the country Wednesday night. Let’s not waste any time diving into them. Here’s what you need to know:

Maryland wins after Minnesota stumbles down the stretch..again

This one was equal parts great for Maryland and devastating for Minnesota.

Well, it’s probably more devastating for the Gophers.

Minnesota, its NCAA tournament hopes already barely registering a pulse and its coach’s job security looking increasingly suspect, led the ninth-ranked Terrapins by as many as 17 in the first half and then by eight with just over 2 minutes to play, but absolutely crumbled down the stretch as Maryland got a go-ahead 3 from Darryl Morsell with 1.9 seconds left to deliver a 74-73 victory at Williams Arena.

For Richard Pitino and the Gophers, it was probably the end of whatever hopes they had for an NCAA tournament berth that didn’t include a conference tournament championship run. They’re 13-14 on the season, and were already looking at being on the bubble from a considerable distance. A win against a top-10 team at home could have changed that in a major way, but a loss leaves them in the status quo. Put it in context that its another blown home game – not much unlike the Iowa and Indiana games earlier this month – and it’s even harder to see the path to an second-straight NCAA tournament. Which means an All-American-type season for sophomore center Daniel Oturu, who had 28 & 11 against Maryland, will likely go for naught.

So that leaves Minnesota outside the dance for the fifth time in seven seasons under Pitino. The Gophers are also in danger of finishing under .500 for the second time in three years and the third in five. The school president and athletic director also weren’t the ones around when Pitino replaced Tubby Smith – who went to three tournaments in six years – in 2013. There may be a decision to consider in Minneapolis next month.

On the happier side of the ledger is Maryland, which maintained its two-game lead over Michigan State and Penn State along with its chances of a No. 1 seed come selection Sunday. It was the fourth time this season that the Terps have overcome a deficit of at least 14 points to win a game. They played much of the first half without Jalen Smith, who was dealing with foul trouble, while shooting 31 percent from the field and going 2 of 14 from the 3-point line. Smith played all 20 minutes of the second half (scoring 14 points, grabbing 12 rebounds and blocking two shots) while Maryland shot 44.1 percent from the field (although still just 4 of 14 from deep).

All that is a long way of saying that Maryland was pitted against a desperate team on the road, played without one of its most important players and shot it terrible in the first half, but still won.

Still, Mark Turgeon is gonna wake up tired tomorrow.

Penn State blows a big lead, but holds on against Rutgers

Not a dissimilar situation from Maryland/Minnesota.

Penn State was the team blowing a lead in this one – a 21-point lead – but the Nittany Lions’ Myles Dread’s late 3-pointer delivered a 65-64 win for the home favorite and hand the team in need of an NCAA tournament boost a crushing L.

The Scarlet Knights have an OK resume – they’ve got three Quad 1 wins, a single Quad 3 loss and are 7-9 against Quad 2s – but with Wednesday’s loss at Penn State, they still don’t have a win away from home on the season. And for a team already on the bubble, a home game against Maryland and a road trip to Purdue isn’t an ideal way to have to finish the season and wrap up a bid before the conference tournament.

Conversely, Penn State is already clearly going to get the first NCAA tournament spot under Pat Chambers and has a couple of really nice resume opportunities left. They’re at Iowa before hosting Michigan State (and then finishing up at Northwestern). Winning the Big Ten regular season title is probably a long shot with Maryland up a pair of games, but getting a top-four seed is absolutely in play.

Kihei Clark won Virginia its fifth-straight game

When you’re in a down league and playing good-but-not-great basketball a year after winning the national title, you don’t generate a lot of buzz. Especially if you’re Virginia, playing games with halftime scores like 26-11, as was the case Wednesday against Virginia Tech.

The Cavaliers, though, have now won five-straight because after the Hokies figure a few things out offensively, Virginia got a game-winner from Kihei Clark.

Tony Bennett’s team is now just a game back of second in the ACC and two behind Florida State in first with three games – including against Duke and Louisville – to play.

Virginia certainly isn’t nearly as interesting or good as the team that cut down nets in Minneapolis last spring, but they’re playing serious defense and getting clutch plays from the point guard. Not a bad March formula.

Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large conversation

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It’s that time of the year again, which means that we are diving head first into our annual NCAA tournament bubble watch.

The way that it will work is simple: We’ll be looking at every team that our Dave Ommen, the best bracketologist in the business, considers in the mix for an at-large bid. In an effort to keep this somewhat manageable, we are going to assume that the top 36 teams in the field — every team that is a No. 9-seed or above — is “off the bubble”. This does not mean those teams are a lock to dance, it just means that they have given themselves enough room for error that we can take them out of the conversation until they do something dumb.

Dave’s latest bracket can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.

So with all that in mind, let’s get into the full NCAA tournament bubble watch:



ACC BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Duke (NBC: 2), Florida State (NBC: 2), Louisville (NBC: 3)

VIRGINIA (NET: 52, NBC: 9): Virginia won for the fifth straight time on Wednesday, blowing a huge lead at Virginia Tech (84) before Kihei Clark saved the day with a buzzer-beating win. They only have three Quad 1 wins and a 10-6 mark against the top two Quads with home dates left against Duke (6) and Louisville (8). They’re getting closer to a spot where they can afford a slip-up, but picking up one of those elite wins should do the trick and get them dancing.

N.C. STATE (NET: 53, NBC: 10): The Wolfpack fell to 17-11 on the season as North Carolina (96) finished off a season sweep with an 85-79 win in Chapel Hill. N.C. State has a weird resume. They are the proud owners of three Quad 3 losses as well as four more losses to sub-70 teams on the road. That’s not good. But they beat Duke (6) by 22 points in Raleigh, which is just one of their five Quad 1 wins. They are 9-8 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents on the season. It’s worth noting that Markell Johnson, N.C. State’s best player, did not play in one of the three Quad 3 losses — Georgia Tech (79) — so that will be something to monitor for the Selection Committee.


AMERICAN BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Houston (NBC: 9)

WICHITA STATE (NET: 43, NBC: Play-in game): Wichita State saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday afternoon, losing by three at Cincinnati (53). They have beaten VCU (57) and Oklahoma (54) at home, and they don’t have any truly terrible losses, but with just one potential Quad 1 games left on their schedule — all of which are on the road — and without a top 50 win on the season, I think the Shockers are going to have an uncomfortable Selection Sunday. The fact that they are 8-7 against the top two Quads without a bad loss is something of a saving grace at this point.

MEMPHIS (NET: 61, NBC: First four out): Memphis is hanging on by a thread right now, and losing at SMU (86) on Tuesday night is certainly not going to help anything. They are still alive after landed a critical win over Houston (24) at home over the weekend, but Memphis still only has a pair of Quad 1 wins compared to three Quad 3 losses. Memphis is also playing with D.J. Jeffries right now, which complicates matters as well. They end their season like this: at Tulane (174), Wichita State (44), at Houston (24). I think they need to win all three at this point.

CINCINNATI (NET: 53, NBC: 11): The Bearcats shot themselves in the foot on Wednesday, losing at home to UCF (125). They bounced back and beat Wichita State (43) at home on Saturday, which gives Cincinnati an eighth win over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. As of this very moment, Cincinnati has just two Quad 1 wins and four Quad 3 losses, all of which came to teams sitting outside the top 100. They’re in a bad spot right now, and with just one more potential Quad 1 win on their resume, I’m not sure just how much they’ll be able to do to fix it. Beating Houston (25) on the road next Sunday has become a must-win.


ATLANTIC 10 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Dayton (NBC: 2)

RHODE ISLAND (NET: 38, NBC: 10): Disaster almost struck for the Rams on Wednesday, as they went into Fordham (277) and barely avoided what would have been a devastating loss. They’re now 20-7 overall with just one Quad 1 win, but they are 6-6 against the top two Quads. The loss to Brown (218) is ugly, but as long as URI avoids the landmines on their schedule, I think they can get an at-large even with a loss to Dayton (5) at home in March.

RICHMOND (NET: 50, NBC: First four out): The Spiders avoided disaster at George Washington (189) on Wednesday. Richmond had their five-game winning streak snapped on the road against St. Bonaventure (113), which is not a bad loss in real life but is a bad loss on an NCAA tournament resume. The Spiders only have one truly terrible loss to their name — Radford (162) got them on a neutral court — but with only three Quad 1 wins and a 4-6 record against the top two Quads, their margin for error is completely gone.


BIG 12 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Baylor (NBC: 1), Kansas (NBC: 1), West Virginia (NBC: 6), Texas Tech (NBC: 8)

OKLAHOMA (NET: 55, NBC: Play-in game): The biggest winner of the night was, without question, Oklahoma. The Sooners picked up their fourth Quad 1 win of the season with an impressive, 65-51 win over Texas Tech (15). It snaps a three-game losing streak that had dropped Oklahoma to 17-11 on the season and sets them up for a massive trip to West Virginia (17) on Saturday, who they beat at home earlier this month. They are now 17-11 on the season and are sitting with a 4-9 record against the top Quad and nine total wins against the top two Quads. It’s also worth noting they only have two road wins on the season — at Texas (66) and at North Texas (92).

TEXAS (NET: 66, NBC: Off the bubble): The Longhorns won their third straight game on Monday night, as they beat No. 20 West Virginia (17) despite playing without Jericho Sims, Gerald Liddell and Jase Febres. Suddenly, a team that we had all written off is right back in the mix, as the Mountaineers are a top 20 team in the NET and the kind of elite win that Texas was sorely lacking on their resume. As it stands, the Longhorns are sitting at 17-11 overall and 7-8 in the Big 12. They have three Quad 1 wins, Monday night’s win as well as roadies at Purdue (36) and Oklahoma State (69), and a 5-11 mark against the top two Quads without a bad loss to their name. Saturday’s trip to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech (15) is going to be the make or break game. It’s not a win-and-you’re-win type deal, but I do think that taking a loss to the Red Raiders would mean that the Longhorns will have to beat one of the Big 12’s top four teams in the conference tournament to have a realistic shot at getting to the dance.


BIG EAST BUBBLE WATCH

Top 9: Seton Hall (NBC: 3), Villanova (NBC: 3), Creighton (NBC: 3), Butler (NBC: 6), Marquette (NBC: 7)

XAVIER (NET: 43, NBC: 10): The Musketeers shook off a loss to Villanova (12) at home on Saturday by knocking off DePaul (73) on Tuesday night. The best thing about this Xavier team’s resume is that they really have not taken all that many bad losses. Their worst loss of the season came at Wake Forest (109), which is a Quad 2 loss. It’s the only team ranked outside of the top 35 in the NET that Xavier has lost to. They only have three Quad 1 wins — and two of them are at St. John’s (70) and at DePaul (73) — but they do have a win over Seton Hall (17) in Newark, which helps quite a bit. I personally think that Xavier has to do more work that it looks like. They are just 3-9 against Quad 1 opponents, and that could drop to 1-9 if St. John’s and DePaul fall outside the top 75. With games at Georgetown (58), at Providence (48) and Butler (23), they’ll have three more chances to land Quad 1 wins. I think Xavier probably should win two of those to really feel comfortable.

PROVIDENCE (NET: 46, NBC: Play-in game): The Friars are now the official owners of the strangest resume in college basketball. On Friday, Marquette (26) paid a visit to The Dunk and lost. Providence has now won three straight games and have now won five of their last seven. All five of those wins are Quad 1 wins, and they include a road win over Butler (20), home wins against Creighton (11) and Seton Hall (17), and Saturday’s win against Marquette. The Friars now have seven Quad 1 wins. If you only look at wins, Providence is like a five seed.

The problem is the losses. There are 12 of them, and some of them are really, really bad. Providence lost to Charleston (142) and Long Beach State (288) on neutral courts, at Northwestern (164) and to Penn (154) at home. That’s three Quad 3 losses and a Quad 4 loss. It’s wild that the Friars are even in the conversation with all of that garbage on their resume, but they very much are.

GEORGETOWN (NET: 59, NBC: Next four out): The Hoyas are now sitting at 15-13 overall with a 5-10 record in the Big East and games left at Creighton (11) and against Villanova (10) at home. They have four Quad 1 wins and nine wins against the top two Quads, but they are just 4-11 against Quad 1 opponents. I think they need to win out during the regular season to get an at-large bid.


BIG TEN BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Maryland (NBC: 2), Michigan (NBC: 4), Penn State (NBC: 4), Ohio State (NBC: 5), Michigan State (NBC: 5), Iowa (NBC: 6),  Illinois (NBC: 7), Wisconsin (NBC: 7), Indiana (NBC: 8)

RUTGERS (NET: 34, NBC: 10):  The Scarlet Knights have one of the weirder resumes on the bubble right now after losing at Penn State (25) on Wednesday. They’re 17-11 overall and they are 9-9 in a Big Ten that is as deep as any league I can remember. They have three Quad 1 wins, just one Quad 3 loss and a 7-10 mark against the top two Quads. Eight of their ten losses are to Quad 1 opponents. They played a tough non-conference schedule, and they have some really impressive home wins. The problem? They’ve only won a single game outside of the RAC this year, and that came at Nebraska (183), who is the worst team in the Big Ten. Their season finishes with Maryland (7) and at Purdue (37). Rutgers has some work left to do, and I really think they will want to win both to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

PURDUE (NET: 37, NBC: Off the bubble): After the Boilermakers lost to Michigan (23) at home on Saturday, they are sitting at 14-14 overall and just 7-10 in the Big Ten. They do actually have a pretty strong resume in regards to the number of good wins that they have, but the biggest issue currently facing Purdue is the number of losses, including a Quad 3 loss. The most losses an at-large team has ever had is 15. For context, Indiana last season was 17-15 with six Quad 1 wins and nine Quad 1 and 2 wins and they were left out. Purdue is 5-10 against Quad 1 opponents — three of those five wins vacillate between Quad 1 and Quad 2 — and 7-12 against the top two Quads with a 3-8 record on the road. Their best road win is at Indiana (58). They’re in a tough spot right now.


PAC-12 BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Oregon (NBC: 4), Colorado (NBC: 5), Arizona (NBC: 7), Arizona State (NBC: 8)

UCLA (NET: 76, NBC: First four out): The Bruins are making a push to get into the NCAA tournament. On Saturday, they completed a sweet of the mountain schools — the toughest road trip in all of college basketball — and have now won five in a row and nine of their last 11 games. They own a sweep of Colorado (18), they won at Arizona (9) and while they do have a Quad 3 loss — Hofstra (114) — and a Quad 4 loss — Fullerton (261) — the Bruins are now sitting on five Quad 1 wins, three of which came against top 15 teams, two on the road. The metrics don’t love the Bruins, but today’s win will help and if the metrics love Arizona and Colorado this much, it should mean quite a bit that UCLA was able to beat them. Their resume isn’t quite as weird as Providence’s, but both of these teams are going to give the Selection Committee a headache on Selection Sunday.

With games left against Arizona, Arizona State and USC, the Bruins will have the chances to play their way in. It’s wild to think that we’re here after the way the season started, but we are.

USC (NET: 47, NBC: Play-in game): After sweeping the Washington schools in LA two weeks ago, the Trojans turned around and lost at Colorado (18) and Utah (81) last week. Suddenly, they’re in a bit of a bad spot. They only have two Quad 1 wins and are now 8-8 against the top two Quads with an 8-7 mark away from the Galen Center, including five road wins. The home loss to Temple (111) is not ideal, but it is survivable. The biggest issue may be how tough their remaining schedule is. The Trojans still get Arizona (8), Arizona State (41) and UCLA (76), who is a game out of first place in the Pac-12, at home. I think they’re still in a pretty good spot, but it’s not going to be comfortable if they don’t win at least two more games before Selection Sunday.

STANFORD (NET: 31, NBC: First four out): The Cardinal are now on a three-game winning streak after beating Utah (82) at home. They are just 3-5 against Quad 1 opponents, 6-8 against the top two Quads and have a Quad 3 loss — at Cal (142) — to their name, but they are playing well at the most important time of their season. They still get Colorado (12) at home and Oregon (19) on the road, so there will be chances to improve their resume, but the Cardinal will need to capitalize on those to feel good on Selection Sunday.


SEC BUBBLE WATCH

TOP 9: Kentucky (NBC: 4), Auburn (NBC: 5), LSU (NBC: 8), Florida (NBC: 9)

ARKANSAS (NET: 45, NBC: Next four out): Arkansas won the second straight game with Isaiah Joe back on Wednesday, working over Tennessee (65) in Fayetteville. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins and a 4-10 mark against the top two Quads, but the more important record is this: They are now 17-5 on the season with a healthy Isaiah Joe. It will be very interesting to see how the selection committee handles Arkansas.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (NET: 57, NBC: Next four out): Mississippi State significantly dinged their at-large chances by losing at Texas A&M (117) on Saturday. That’s the third bad loss on their resume, and with a win at Florida (34) and a sweep of Arkansas (45) the only notable accomplishments to date, the Bulldogs find themselves in a tough spot. Saturday’s win against Alabama (40) at home on Tuesday helps, but that’s only a Quad 2 win. The Bulldogs have just Quad 1 wins to date. What’s worse is that they only get one more Quad 1 opportunity in the regular season, and that’s a game at South Carolina (63).

ALABAMA (NET: 40, NBC: Next four out): The Crimson Tide lost on Tuesday, falling at Mississippi State (57) in what was their last opportunity to land a Quad 1 win. They’re now 15-13 overall and while they do have two Quad 1 wins — Auburn (28) and LSU (29) at home — but both of those teams are one loss away from potentially falling out of the Quad 1 range. They also have a pair of Quad 3 home losses. I think the dream is done for Alabama.

SOUTH CAROLINA (NET: 63, NBC: Off the bubble): The Gamecocks snapped a two-game losing streak and avoided disaster by beating Georgia (90) in overtime at home on Wednesday. With just one Quad 1 opportunity left on their schedule — at Alabama (40) on Saturday — I think Frank Martin’s club needs to win out to get in.


BUBBLE WATCH FOR EVERYONE ELSE

TOP 9: Gonzaga (NBC: 1), San Diego State (NBC: 1), BYU (NBC: 6), Saint Mary’s (NBC: 9)

UTAH STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After wiping the floor with San Jose State (280), the Aggies have won six in a row and nine of their last ten games, ensuring they are still in the NCAA tournament mix and fully turning around a season that looked like it was lost as recently as five weeks ago. Wins over LSU (29) and Florida (33) are nice, but with three road losses to sub-85 teams and no more chances to land marquee wins, how are they going to make up for those losses? They don’t play another top 100 team the rest of the season. I don’t see how they can feel comfortable about getting in without beating San Diego State (5) in the MWC tournament.

EAST TENNESSEE STATE (NET: 39, NBC: 11): The Buccaneers survived a trip to Wofford (151) on Wednesday night. ETSU has gotten through the toughest part of their schedule. They have a win at UNCG (62) and a win at LSU (30). With a 22-4 record and a Quad 4 loss to Mercer (197) at home, the Buccaneers have to win out and lose to only UNCG or Furman in the SoCon tournament to have a chance, and even that might be a bit of a longshot.

NORTHERN IOWA (NET: 46, NBC: 12): Northern Iowa took care of business against a bad Evansville team on Wednesday. UNI has a win at Colorado (18) and they beat South Carolina (63) on a neutral court, but they are 5-3 against the top two Quads with a pair of Quad 3 losses. I want to see them get an at-large — every one of their non-Quad 1 losses is a road game in league play — but I’m not sure they have done enough to beat out some of these power conference teams.

Late 3 salvages win over Rutgers for No. 16 Penn State

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images
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STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Myles Dread hit a go-ahead 3-pointer with 28 seconds left to lift No. 16 Penn State over Rutgers 65-64 on Wednesday night after the Nittany Lions blew a 21-point lead.

Trailing 40-19 late in the first half, the Scarlet Knights tied the game at 62 with 1:32 left in the game on Geo Baker’s layup. His jumper gave Rutgers a two-point lead with 42 seconds remaining.

After a timeout, Dread hit his 3-pointer and Akwasi Yeboah’s shot at before the buzzer was off.

Izaiah Brockington scored 16 points and Lamar Stevens added nine for the Nittany Lions (21-7, 11-6 Big Ten).

Jacob Young scored 13 points for the Scarlet Knights (18-11, 9-9), who lost their third straight.

Penn State led for all but 2:04 and by double digits well into the second before the Scarlet Knights rallied.

Beforehand, the Scarlet Knights had cut it to 51-50 with a 15-2 run that began as Young found ways to penetrate Penn State’s defense.

RELATED: NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE WATCH

Young, who entered the night averaging eight points per game, hit a layup with 14:45 left and added two more along with a dunk from Ron Harper Jr. and a layup from Myles Johnson to pull the Scarlet Knights within a point with 10:03 left.

Stevens scored the next two baskets and Penn State got some more offense to go back up by 10.

Both teams played sturdy defense early before the Nittany Lions edged ahead 13-10 eight minutes in. Stevens increased his team’s lead with a 3-pointer from the corner two minutes later. Stevens’ first make of the game sparked a 27-9 run to make it a 21-point lead.

THE BIG PICTURE

Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights have had a season to remember, but most of the highlights came in the first half when they went 12-3 up until Jan. 7. Since then they’re 6-8.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions have been coughing up big leads in the second half of the season. They needed to halt their skid and were able to do so, though coach Patrick Chambers still wants his team to develop a killer instinct to put teams away.

UP NEXT

Rutgers: Hosts No. 9 Maryland on Tuesday.

Penn State: Visits No. 18 Iowa on Saturday.