Bubble Banter: Have three teams seen their bubbles popped today?

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Illinois head coach John Groce (Getty Images)

(This post will be updated throughout the day.)

READ MORE: New Bracketology! | Bubble teams with the most on the line

WINNERS

  • Indiana: The Hoosiers may have picked up the biggest win of the day. They knocked off Northwestern on Thursday, and while beating the Wildcats isn’t exactly a statement win, it was one of the best performances that Indiana has had in a month. For a team that has been sputtering, that’s the kind of win that can instill some confidence heading into a matchup with Maryland. It also may have locked Indiana into an at-large bid. Most projections had the Hoosiers on the right side of the bubble entering the day, and that won’t change with this win. Losing to Maryland won’t hurt them enough to cost a bid. I’d still recommend beating the Terps and removing any doubt, but the Hoosiers should be able to survive. The big question now: Hanner Mosquera-Perea’s knee.
  • Boise State: The Broncos are in a pretty good spot in terms of the bubble these days, but what they cannot afford in the early rounds of the Mountain West tournament is a bad loss. They took care of business in their first game in the event with a big win over Air Force. They play Wyoming on Friday, and even with a loss they should probably be OK.
  • Colorado State: The Rams got passed Fresno State in the MWC quarterfinals, setting them up for a date with San Diego State in the semis. Colorado State is right there on the cut line, and while most projections have them in the tournament, there are quite a few that place the Rams in the play-in game. Beating SDSU tomorrow will likely lock the Rams into a bid, but they can probably still get in with a loss. The best news of the day was the struggles of the other teams on the bubble.
  • UCLA: The Bruins blew out crosstown rivals USC in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals, setting up the game that they absolutely have to win if they want an at-large bid: a date with No. 5 Arizona. Get by the Wildcats and into the Pac-12 finals, and Steve Alford’s crew will have a real shot at hearing Greg Gumbel call their name on Sunday.
  • Xavier: If the Musketeers were on the bubble, they aren’t anymore after beating No. 22 Butler in overtime in the Big East tournament.

LOSERS

  • Miami: The Hurricanes missed out on a terrific opportunity to capitalize on losses from a number of teams currently on the bubble when they lost to No. 11 Notre Dame on Thursday night. The Hurricanes erased a 20-point lead and eventually tied the Irish late in the second half, but they were never able to break through, suffering a loss that will ultimately be quite costly. Will this keep them out of the tournament? That’s hard to say, but they certainly didn’t do themselves any favors. That win at Duke looks really, really good, but the Hurricanes have enough ugly on their resume to cover it up.
  • Texas: The Longhorns blew a 16 point lead — and a 67-57 deficit in the final 3:35 — to lose to Iowa State. We wrote all about how bad that loss is for them here.
  • Ole Miss: The Rebels may have finally played their way out of the NCAA tournament. Ole Miss has lost four of their last five games, including this heartbreaker against South Carolina in the opening round of the SEC tournament. Andy Kennedy’s club does have three top 50 all — at Arkansas, at Oregon and against Cincinnati on a neutral court — but they also have three ugly non-conference losses. Losing to Vanderbilt and the Gamecocks in their last two games adds two extra sub-75 losses to their resume. The good news? Just about everyone behind Ole Miss in the bubble pecking order lost today as well. The loss certainly isn’t a good thing, but in a weird way, the Rebels may actually come out as a winner when the day is all said and done. Backing your way into the tournament means you got a bid.
  • Texas A&M: The Aggies are in big trouble. Big, big trouble. The best thing that Texas A&M had going for them was that they didn’t have any bad losses. Then, to close out the regular season, they lost to Alabama at home. They followed that up with Thursday’s loss to Auburn in the SEC tournament, and suddenly, their profile — which includes a sweep of LSU and … not much else — doesn’t look good at all. The Aggies were in a bad spot entering the weekend, and this seemingly ensures that they will be NIT bound.
  • Old Dominion: The Monarchs lost to Middle Tennessee on Thursday in the Conference USA tournament. They were showing up on some First Five Out lists, which seemed quite generous to me. Now? They can probably kiss those pipe dreams goodbye.
  • Stanford: The Cardinal needed to beat Utah to have any shot of earning an at-large bid. They were blown out. Enjoy the NIT, guys.
  • Illinois: The Illini were on the wrong side of the bubble in just about every bracket projection entering the day, meaning that in order to play their way into the NCAA tournament, they likely needed to beat not only Michigan today but No. 1 seed Wisconsin tomorrow. The Illini were blown out by the Wolverines. Welcome to the NIT!