Bracketology: No. 1 seed line remains unsettled

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With just over a week until Selection Sunday, the No. 1 seed line remains unsettled.  Kentucky will be the No. 1 overall seed; that much is clear.  We’re also confident that some combination of these teams will comprise the other three spots on the top line: Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, or Gonzaga.  That’s six teams for three spots.

Virginia also looks pretty locked-in as a one-seed; it would take a loss Saturday at Louisville, and an earlier-than-expected exit from the ACC tournament, to create the potential for a slip.  Which leaves us, more realistically, with five teams for two spots.  In today’s bracket, Duke and Villanova hold spots three and four on the Seed List, with Wisconsin and Arizona next in line.  Gonzaga will be discussed, but the Bulldogs likely need every team ahead of them to lose in order to move back up.

Order of the final Seed List is also uncertain – after you get past Kentucky.  It matters because it helps determine which team(s) end up in which regions.  Virginia has second choice today, so the Cavaliers slot East.  Duke (South) and Villanova (West) are next.  Arizona would stay West regardless of which No. 1 seed position they might obtain, but if the Tucson version of the Wildcats remains a two-seed, slots three and four will determine which of those teams remains closer to home.

Championship Week begins tomorrow.  Our next bracket update is Monday.  For the complete Seed List regarding today’s bracket, visit Bracketville.

UPDATED: March 6, 2015

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid.  In the event of a tie in the loss column, RPI is the first tiebreaker used. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Boise State vs. BYU West Region
  • Texas AM vs. Illinois West Region
  • BUCKNELL vs. ST. FRANCIS (NY) Midwest Region
  • NORTH FLORIDA vs. GA SOUTHERN East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWEST – Cleveland                      EAST Syracuse                                  
Louisville Charlotte
1) KENTUCKY 1) VIRGINIA
16) ST. FRANCIS / BUCKNELL 16) NO FLORIDA / GA SOUTH
8) DAYTON 8) VCU
9) Xavier 9) Mississippi
Seattle Jacksonville
5) North Carolina 5) West Virginia
12) S.F. Austin 12) WOFFORD
4) WICHITA STATE 4) Arkansas
13) HARVARD 13) IONA
Columbus Pittsburgh
6) Georgetown 6) Providence
11) LSU 11) Davidson
3) Iowa State 3) Maryland
14) CENTRAL MICHIGAN 14) NC-CENTRAL
Columbus Omaha
7) SAN DIEGO ST 7) Butler
10) NC State 10) Purdue
2) WISCONSIN 2) KANSAS
15) NORTHEASTERN 15) SO DAKOTA ST
WEST – Los Angeles SOUTH – Houston                        
Pittsburgh Charlotte
1) VILLANOVA 1) Duke
16) TEXAS-SOUTHERN 16) ALBANY
8) Georgia 8) Ohio State
9) Oregon 9) Oklahoma State
Jacksonville Portland
5) Louisville 5) Northern Iowa
12) Texas AM / Illinois 12) MURRAY STATE
4) Baylor 4) Utah
13) LOUISIANA TECH 13) VALPARAISO
Louisville Omaha
6) Iowa 6) SMU
11) Boise State / BYU 11) Colorado State
3) Notre Dame 3) Oklahoma
14) HIGH POINT 14) UC-DAVIS
Portland Seattle
7) St. John’s 7) Michigan State
10) Indiana 10) Cincinnati
2) ARIZONA 2) GONZAGA
15) NEW MEXICO ST 15) EASTERN WASHINGTON

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kentucky is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Virginia, Duke, and Villanova. Next in line: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Davidson, Boise State, BYU, Texas AM, Illinois

First Five teams out (at large): Tulsa, Temple, Texas, UCLA, Miami-FL

Next five teams out (at large): Old Dominion, Stanford, Richmond, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (8): Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

ACC (6): Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State

Big East (6): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier

SEC (6): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas AM

Pac 12 (3): Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Mountain West (3): San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State

Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton, VCU, Davidson

American (2): SMU, Cincinnati

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Northern Iowa

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech

ONE BID LEAGUES: Georgia Southern (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Eastern Washingotn (BSKY), Valparaiso (HZN), S.F. Austin (SLND), Wofford (STHN), UC-Davis (BWEST), Central Michigan (MAC), Iona (MAAC), North Florida (ASUN), Murray State (OVC), Northeastern (CAA), High Point (BSO), NC-Central (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Albany (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), St. Francis – NY (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)