2014-15 Season Preview: Can anyone other than Kentucky, Florida go dancing?

1 Comment
source: AP
Karl-Anthony Towns (AP Photo)

Beginning on October 3rd and running up until November 14th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2014-2015 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

Today, we will be previewing the SEC.

MORE: 2014-2015 Season Preview Coverage | Conference Previews | Preview Schedule

Kentucky should be awesome.

We all know that.

But when it comes to the SEC, that’s about all that we know for sure. Florida should be good, but a number of key pieces are young and unproven. Arkansas might be good, but when was the last time that a Mike Anderson team was anything close to consistent on the road? LSU should make the tournament, but they should have made it last season. Georgia finished tied for second in the league last year, but they didn’t sniff the bubble. Might Ole Miss actually be the third-best team in the conference?

FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW:

1. Kentucky is so deep they’ll be playing with platoons: I was asked about this on the radio this week, andto really get a feel for just how deep Kentucky is, think about Derek Willis. At one point, Willis was the No. 26 recruit in the country. He’s an athletic, versatile combo-forward with three-point range and probably good enough to start for just about any team outside the top 25. He’s so far down the Wildcat depth chart that he won’t even play in Kentucky’s second platoon. Nine McDonald all-americans. Eight guys that potentially could be drafted this spring. Yeesh.

2. Florida is talented, but quite young: Florida graduated four seniors from last year’s team, including center Patric Young and SEC Player of the Year Scottie Wilbekin. In their stead this season will be former five-star recruits Chris Walker and Kasey Hill. How will that pair fare playing much-expanded roles for the Gators this season?

source: Getty Images
Getty Images

3. Ole Miss is the league’s sleeper team: There is a lot to like about the Rebels this year. For starters, the distraction that was Marshall Henderson is gone, and in his place is star guard and our Preseason SEC Player of the Year, Jarvis Summers. The Rebels also have a big, athletic front line, and that should be enough to get them in the mix for that No. 3 spot in the league standings.

4. Arkansas should be good enough to get an at-large bid: If the Razorbacks are going to make the NCAA tournament, this is the season to do so. They have talented, veteran perimeter plays that will do well in Mike Anderson’s “40 Minutes Of Hell” system, but they also have one of the most underrated players in the country is star big man Bobby Portis. Portis could end up being a first round pick by the time the season is done, meaning that this may be their best chance to dance.

5. The same with LSU, but they should have been last year, too: Once again, LSU will enter this season with a front line that will draw attention: Jordan Mickey, Jarell Martin and Elbert Robertson. But the key this year will be the back court of Josh Gray and Keith Hornsby, who will replace Anthony Hickey. The key? Ensuring that back court understands the importance of pounding the ball into the paint for those big bodies.

PRESEASON SEC PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Jarvis Summers, Ole Miss

With all the talk about Marshall Henderson over the course of the last two seasons it was easy to overlook the fact that the best player on the Rebels was Summers. He may not become a national name this season — it’s hard to do that if you play in the SEC for someone other than Kentucky or Florida — but an all-american team isn’t out of the question.

THE REST OF THE ALL-SEC FIRST TEAM:

  • Aaron Harrison, Kentucky, So.: Harrison could very well end up being the leading scorer for Kentucky this season. He was inconsistent as a freshman, but he hit three enormous threes during Kentucky’s run to the NCAA tournament title game.
  • Karl Towns, Kentucky, Fr.: Towns is the most talented player in the league and may be the most talented player in the country, but Kentucky’s depth will limit his playing time and production.
  • Bobby Portis, Arkansas, So.: One of the most underrated players in the conference, Portis had a very good freshman season that was a bit overshadowed by the fact that Arkansas wasn’t a tournament team in a mediocre SEC.
  • Jordan Mickey, LSU, So.: Mickey put up huge numbers as a freshman, but it didn’t get as much attention nationally due to LSU’s disappointing finish to the season.

FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW:

  • Andrew Harrison, Kentucky, So.
  • Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, So.
  • Kasey Hill, Florida, So.
  • Michael Frazier, Florida, Jr.
  • Charles Mann, Georgia, Jr.

BREAKOUT STAR: Kasey Hill — and, to a lesser extent, Chris Walker — should have big seasons for Florida this season, and Bobby Portis will likely shoot up draft boards as the season progresses, but my pick for a breakout star in the SEC is Vanderbilt big man Damian Jones. He averaged 11.3 points, 5.7 boards and 1.4 blocks as a freshman with the ‘Dores and will be asked to carry the load once again next season.

source:
AP

COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Anthony Grant was one of the hottest names in coaching when he was hired away from VCU by Alabama back in 2009, but he hasn’t really been able to get things up and running in Tuscaloosa. Grant’s made just one NCAA tournament in his five seasons with the Crimson Tide, and last year was his worst as a head coach, as the Tide finished just 13-19 overall. It would not be good for Grant if his program finishes behind Bruce Pearl’s at Auburn.

ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING … : The SEC only sent three teams to the NCAA tournament again?

I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT … : Seeing how John Calipari will manage his roster and whether or not the platoons will work.

FIVE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES TO CIRCLE ON YOUR CALENDAR:

  • Nov. 18th, Kansas vs. Kentucky (Champions Classic)
  • Dec. 5th, Florida at Kansas (SEC/Big 12 Challenge)
  • Dec. 5th, Texas at Kentucky (SEC/Big 12 Challenge)
  • Dec. 13th, North Carolina at Kentucky
  • Dec. 27th, Kentucky at Louisville

ONE TWITTER FEED TO FOLLOW: @SECSports

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Kentucky: I could see the Wildcats doing what Florida did last season, rolling through the league schedule undefeated and winning the regular season title by six games.
2. Florida: Florida’s success this season hinges on the play of sophomores Kasey Hill and Chris Walker. If they play like top ten recruits, the Gators could end up being a top ten team. If they don’t, Florida might not finish second in the SEC.
3. Arkansas: The Razorbacks have a star-in-the-making in big man Bobby Portis and a pair of talented wings in Rashad Madden and Michael Qualls. Two keys for this group: Winning on the road, and finding a point guard to run the ship.
4. Ole Miss: The Marshall Henderson Show overshadowed just how good Jarvis Summers was last season. Andy Kennedy will have a pair of talented transfers joining him in the back court along with a slew of big, athletic forwards. The SEC’s sleeper this year.
5. LSU: Jordan Mickey headlines a talented front court that includes Jarrell Martin and Elbert Robertson, but the Tigers are going to need more consistent back court play. Can transfers Josh Gray and Keith Hornsby provide it?
6. Georgia: The Bulldogs bring back their top five scorers from last season, including Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines, but to move up the SEC standings, they’ll need big years from big men Nemanja Djurisic and Yante Maten.
7. Texas A&M: The Aggies lose Jamal Jones, but Alex Caruso and Kourtney Robertson are back and will be joined by Jalen Jones, Alex Robinson and, if he gets a waiver, Danuel House.
8. Auburn: The Tigers bring back K.T. Harrell and add a number of quality transfers, but most importantly, the hiring of Bruce Pearl has added a level of excitement around the program. Bet on Pearl to win.
9. Missouri: New head coach Kim Anderson will have work to do with this group, but the cupboard if far from bare. I loved point guard Wes Clark in high school, Johnathon Williams III was promising last season and the addition of Jakeenan Gant, Deuce Bello and Keith Shamburger will help.
10. Vanderbilt: Kevin Stallings returns Damian Jones, who is a future all-SEC talent, and adds four top 150 freshmen to the mix. They’re young, but the future is brighter than the present.
11. South Carolina: Frank Martin has the Gamecocks moving in the right direction, as he’s added Sindarius Thornwell, TeMarcus Blanton and Marcus Strohman in recent classes.
12. Alabama: Anthony Grant has yet to have real success at Alabama. He’ll be relying on the influx of talent into the program — freshmen Justin Coleman and Devin Mitchell, transfer Ricky Tarrant — to try and get a tournament bid this season.
13. Mississippi State: Rick Ray is still in full-blown rebuilding mode with this program, but this season he’ll get back a number of key pieces — including Craig Sword — and will finally have some height.
14. Tennessee: The Vols lost quite a bit from last year’s Sweet 16 teams, and while Robert Hubbs and Josh Richardson return, there’s not much else here outside of the distraction provided by the NCAA investigation into Donnie Tyndall.

No. 5 Butler loses second straight as DePaul gets first Big East win

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Paul Reed scored 23 points and shot 8-for-9 from the floor and 5-for-5 from the line as DePaul finally found a way into the win column on Saturday, pounding No. 5 Butler at home, 79-66.

The Blue Demons jumped out to a 22-6 lead early in the first half, and outside of a late first half surge that cut the lead to five, were never really threatened by the Bulldogs. Jalen Coleman-Lands finished with 19 points and Romeo Weekms added 11 as Dave Leitao’s club was able to land their biggest win of the season despite the fact that leading scorer Charlie Moore finished with just nine points to go along with his eight assists.

It helps that Moore was the only player that did not shoot the ball well for the Blue Demons. He was 3-for-13 from the floor and 1-for-4 from three. The rest of the team shot 18-for-30 from the field and 9-for-13 from three.

The truth is that DePaul, who entered the game in sole possession of last place in the conference with an 0-4 record, has been much closer to being this good than they have been to being a typical, winless DePaul program. They won non-conference road wins at Iowa and Minnesota — and we know how hard it is to win on the road in the Big Ten — while beating Texas Tech in overtime in Chicago. Their four losses have come by a total of 20 points, one of which came in overtime at Villanova.

Put another way, DePaul has taken as many tough losses as anyone in league play.

They were never going to be an easy out.

Butler found that out the hard way.

But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t start asking questions about the Bulldogs, who have now been outscored 123-88 in the last three halves of basketball that they have played. For a team that prides themselves on their defense, their execution and their ability to prepare for an opponent, this is worrisome.

The Bulldogs aren’t winning based on talent. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone that is willing to say that Butler is more talented than DePaul. Where they make up the difference is in being able to blow up anything that a team wants to run against them while executing well enough offensively to be able to land a win.

They haven’t been able to do that since the first half of the loss to Seton Hall.

Now, this could be as simple as the Bulldogs shooting poorly and running into a couple of tough, athletic teams that got hot at the right time.

Or it could be a sign that Butler has been figured out.

Either way, the truth is that the Bulldogs needed to find an answer, because things do not get easier for them this week.

They head to No. 14 Villanova next.

No. 2 Baylor pushes winning streak to 15 with come-from-behind win at Oklahoma State

Getty Images
Leave a comment

STILLWATER, Okla. — Devonte Bandoo hit four threes in the final 11 minutes, including two in the last three minutes, as No. 2 Baylor rallied past Oklahoma State 75-68 for the Bears’ 15th straight victory. Oklahoma State has now lost five in a row.

Jared Butler scored 19 points and had six assists.

Baylor (15-1, 5-0 Big 12) has the second-longest active streak in the nation and the third longest in school history.

Freddie Gillespie had 17 points and four rebounds and Devonte Bandoo scored 12 of his 14 points in the second half for Baylor, which overcame a 12-point deficit in the last 20 minutes.

Isaac Likekele scored 16 points and added nine rebounds and five assists for Oklahoma State (9-8, 0-5). Cameron McGriff had 16 points and five rebounds while Thomas Dziagwa and Lindy Waters each scored 14. Oklahoma State shot 41%, the highest allowed by Baylor since Nov. 24, a span of 10 games.

The Bears trailed 47-35 with 14 minutes remaining but used an 18-4 run over the next four-plus minutes to get back in the game. When MaCio Teague hit a 3-pointer 8:41 left, Baylor had its first lead.

The teams exchanged leads four times down the stretch before the Bears sank seven of eight free throws in the final minute to seal it.

BIG PICTURE

Baylor: The Bears entered the day having trailed for a total of just 22 minutes, 13 seconds, over their previous nine games. Their largest deficit in that span was a 20-15 margin in the first half of a 67-55 win over then-No. 3 Kansas on Jan. 11. Oklahoma State led 36-27 at the half, just the fourth time this season Baylor wasn’t up at halftime.

Oklahoma State: After shooting just 30% or less in three of their previous four outings, the Cowboys found their mojo. Their shooting percentage was the highest in five games.

UP NEXT

Baylor: The Bears have a quick turnaround, hosting Oklahoma on Monday.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys play at Iowa State on Tuesday.

No. 14 Villanova survives UConn, 61-55

Getty Images
Leave a comment

In a game with ever-changing momentum, Villanova’s Jermaine Samuels stepped up to make crucial shots as the Wildcats held on for a narrow 61-55 win over the Huskies.

In crunch time, the Wildcats turned to their experienced players — juniors Samuels and Collin Gillespie.

Samuels hit a three with 31 seconds left to give ‘Nova a four-point lead, ending the game with a team-high 19 points and going 4-of-6 from long. Collin Gillespie helped the Wildcats turn around a slow second-half start, scoring 10 straight after going scoreless for almost 27 minutes.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl played an important role in the Wildcats’ win as well, knocking down four critical free throws to extend the lead at the end of the game. The freshman crashed the boards for a total of seven rebounds, including three huge offensive boards.

Villanova (14-3) closed the game on an 18-7 run to pull off the victory, as UConn (10-7) gave it everything they had, keeping it close to the very end.

The Huskies got out to an early lead over the Wildcats, with Akok Akok making impressive plays on both sides of the court — turning a blocked shot into a three-pointer on the other end. Akok led the team with three blocks, grabbing two of five first-half blocks. UConn made clear why it is one of the nation’s best shot-blocking teams, totaling six blocks on the game and forcing Villanova to hit perimeter shots by taking away the paint.

After getting off to a slow start, Villanova shot lights out from beyond the arc in the first half, going 6-of-11 and utilizing spacing to avoid UConn’s high-level shot blocking. Six different Wildcats sank one from deep as ‘Nova finished 11-of-23 on the day.

After the game, Villanova coach Jay Wright commented on the team’s two slow starts on the day, saying the team had to learn how to play every possession intently.

While UConn wasn’t able to keep up from beyond the arc — shooting only 2-of-15 — the Huskies took advantage down low, with a whopping 36 points coming from inside the paint compared to the Wildcats’ 12.

Turnovers also plagued the Huskies, as they lost the ball 17 times, which the Wildcats capitalized on to score 23 of their 61 points.

UConn is clearly on the rise under the coaching of Dan Hurley and made it a tough game for Villanova. The Huskies will rejoin the Big East next season, making this a rivalry to watch moving forward.

Gators guard Andrew Nembhard has flu, could miss Auburn game

Getty Images
Leave a comment

GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) Florida could be without point guard Andrew Nembhard against No. 4 Auburn on Saturday.

Coach Mike White said Nembhard has the flu and missed practice Thursday and Friday. The sophomore and Canadian national team player has started all 52 games in two seasons.

“We all better be ready to play potentially without him,” White said.

Nembhard is averaging 11.1 points, 5.9 assists and 2.8 rebounds this season. He also ranks second on the team with 21 steals. If he doesn’t play, the Gators (11-5, 3-1 Southeastern Conference) would start one of two freshmen: Tre Mann or Ques Glover.

Neither option seems ideal against Auburn (15-1, 3-1), which starts four seniors including two in the backcourt.

“Great opportunity for freshmen guards,” White said. “All these guys want opportunities. They have to take advantage of it. We have to be ready.”

Although Florida has plenty of time remaining to bolster its postseason resume, White acknowledged that his team could use a victory against an Auburn team that sits 11th in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings. The Gators have only one win against a team currently ranked in the NET top 50.

You’ve got to start taking advantage of some of them,” White said. “You want to play postseason and you want to play in that one tournament as opposed to the others, and you’ve got to win some of these.

“I don’t think any of them are do or die. I don’t think you put your team – especially this team – in the right mindset to execute (by saying that). But our guys also have to understand and we all have to understand that at this time of year – really from now to finish, really from the first game to finish – you’ve got to take advantage of some of these opportunities.”

It might be without Nembhard, who’s assist-to-turnover ratio is slightly better than 2 to 1.

“He’s one of the best guards in our league,” senior forward Kerry Blackshear Jr. said. “He’s somebody who calms us down on both ends of the plays, accountable on both ends. But I think we have some guys ready to step up, been really good in practice these last few days.

“I think we got a good chance of winning this one.”

More AP college basketball: https://apnews.com/Collegebasketball and https://twitter.com/AP-Top25

Best Bets: Where is the value in college basketball this weekend?

Grant Halverson/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Friday night’s lines have been released, but Saturday’s have not yet been put out by the fine folks running sportsbooks. Until they are, we will be using projections from KenPom, Torvik and Haslametrics to analyze Saturday’s games.

FRIDAY

No. 13 DAYTON (-7) at SAINT LOUIS, 137.5 (7:00 p.m.)

  • KENPOM: Dayton 73, Saint Louis 65
  • TORVIK: Dayton 73, Saint Louis 64
  • HASLAM: Dayton 76, Saint Louis 64
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: Dayton 72.25, Saint Louis 65.25

I love this Dayton team. They are so efficient and so hard to guard on the offensive end of the floor because of their spacing, they number of quality perimeter weapons that they have and the fact that Anthony Grant has implemented a pro-style offense with a roster of upperclassmen.

Oh, and they happen to have this guy, Obi Toppin, who just so happens to be a perfect fit at the five for what they want to run.

But I think I lean Saint Louis here. Chaifetz Arena is always a tough place to play, and the Billikens have been playing well of late. They have talent, too, and they have traditionally been one of the better defensive teams in the Atlantic 10 under Travis Ford. They also happen to have Hasahn French on the roster, and he is about as good of a matchup as you can ask for with Toppin. They can play small, and they actually do have some high-level talent on the roster — Jordan Goodwin is a first-team all-Atlantic 10 player.

BEST BET: Here’s the catch: Saint Louis (+7) feels like a very sharp line. At (+6.5), I think there’s an argument to be made that the value is on Dayton. So I’ll probably stay away unless it gets to (+7.5) or, ideally, (+8).

WISCONSIN at No. 15 MICHIGAN STATE (-9.5), 130.5 (7:00 p.m.)

  • KENPOM: Michigan State 69, Wisconsin 62
  • TORVIK: Michigan State 68, Wisconsin 62
  • HASLAM: Michigan State 69, Wisconsin 61
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: Michigan State 70, Wisconsin 60.5

Michigan State is the play for me here. They’re in a perfect spot. Wisconsin has won two games in a row and six of their last seven, they are coming off of a somewhat fluky win over Maryland at home on Tuesday night and now have to turn around and head on the road to take on the best team in the league.

The Spartans?

They were just humiliated at Purdue, losing by 29 points in Mackey Arena, before having a full week off to prep for the Badgers.

BEST BET: I liked this line significantly more when it opened at Michigan State (-8), but I think the Spartans run away with this so I will be on Sparty (-9.5), as well.

No. 19 MICHIGAN at IOWA (-4.5), 149.5 (9:00 p.m.)

  • KENPOM: Iowa 76, Michigan 72
  • TORVIK: Iowa 76, Michigan 72
  • HASLAM: Iowa 76, Michigan 71
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: Iowa 77, Michigan 72.5

The last time these two teams got together, Iowa beat Michigan 103-91 in a game where the Hawkeyes got 44 points from Luka Garza. After that game, the Hawkeyes ranked 175th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Torvik.

Since that game, Iowa has ranked 28th nationally in AdjDE. The under has hit in seven of their last eight games. The total in this game opened at 148, spiked at 151 and has come down to 149.5.

Should I mention that Isaiah Livers, Michigan’s leading scorer and most talented player, is not going to be available?

BEST BET: I like Iowa (-4.5). I love under 149.5. I would probably take the under all the way down to 147, which is the lowest total among any of the projections I use.

SATURDAY

No. 3 DUKE at No. 11 LOUISVILLE, 6:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Duke 72, Louisville 64
  • TORVIK: Duke 71, Louisville 64
  • HASLAM: Duke 76, Louisville 63
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: N/A

The biggest game of the weekend feels like a prime bounceback spot for Duke.

The Blue Devils are coming off of a loss at Clemson on Tuesday night where their perimeter defense was exposed. The Tigers played four guards and a perimeter-oriented five in Aamir Simms that pulled Vernon Carey and Matthew Hurt away from the paint and made them guard in space. It did not go well.

Louisville is playing their third-straight road game, and the first two were not exactly statement wins. The Cardinals blew a double-digit lead at Notre Dame in a 67-64 win and they needed overtime (and this controversial call) to beat Pitt.

The kicker here is that Louisville cannot spread the floor the way that Miami can — they typically always have one low-post banger on the court in Steve Enoch and Malik Williams — and their questionable point guard play has been an issue in every game they’re lost. Tre Jones is as good of a defender at the point of attack as anyone.

BEST BET: We’ll see where the line opens, but if you can get Duke (-8.5) or lower, that seems pretty tasty.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Duke opened at (-7) and is still available at (-7.5) for me. This is my favorite bet of the day.

No. 10 KENTUCKY at ARKANSAS, 4:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Arkansas 69, Kentucky 66
  • TORVIK: Arkansas 69, Kentucky 65
  • HASLAM: Arkansas 73, Kentucky 65
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: N/A

This is the toughest game on Saturday’s slate to get a good feel for. Kentucky is coming off of a loss at South Carolina where they held a big lead early in the second half and choked it away on a banked-in, buzzer-beating three.

Arkansas, on the other hand, is 14-2 on the season and their two losses have come on the road at LSU by two and at Western Kentucky in overtime (before WKU’s best player hurt his knee).

The Razorbacks basically run everything through Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones offensively, and I do think that Kentucky has the perimeter defenders to be able to deal with them, but I think it’s worth noting that Arkansas is the best in the country at running opponents off of the three-point line and Kentucky has been shooting the three at a 41.4 percent clip in SEC play, which leads the league.

BEST BET: I lean Arkansas (-3) here, and I will take a gander at the under if it gets to 139 or higher. If you want to bet on Kentucky, take the ML.

BYU at NO. 1 GONZAGA, 10:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Gonzaga 82, BYU 73
  • TORVIK: Gonzaga 81, BYU 73
  • HASLAM: Gonzaga 87, BYU 73
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: N/A

I felt like I needed to mention this game because BYU is probably the second-best team in the Mountain West and, when they have a healthy Yoeli Childs, might be a top 25 team nationally.

The problem is that they don’t have a healthy Yoeli Childs, and that creates a bit of a problem when projecting this line.

I do think that BYU has the horses to run with Gonzaga even without him, and their ability to shoot and space the floor could give a bigger Gonzaga team some issues. The Cougars have also had some success playing at Gonzaga in past seasons — they won in the Kennel in 2015, 2016 and 2017. So I’m not necessarily going to get scared of by the opponent here.

BEST BET: It’s impossible to say without knowing where the line is going to open, so check back on Saturday morning when we have that info.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: BYU (+13) is not going to feel comfortable, but I think we have to take the points here.

No. 20 COLORADO at ARIZONA, 2:30 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Arizona 73, Colorado 68
  • TORVIK: Arizona 71, Colorado 67
  • HASLAM: Arizona 70, Colorado 64
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: N/A

Both Colorado and Arizona played late on Thursday night, meaning that there will be a 36-hour turnaround between games, which makes me lean towards the home team.

I also think it’s worth noting that these two teams have been trending in opposite directions. Prior to beating Utah on Thursday night, Arizona has lost four of their last five and five of their last seven and were coming off of a sweep at the Oregon schools. Colorado, on the other hand, is currently sitting in second place in the Pac-12 race.

BEST BET: Assuming this line opens at Arizona (-4.5), I think the value is on the Wildcats. Playing two road games in three days is never easy, and you know the McKale Center is going to be rocking with a ranked team coming to town.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: At Arizona (-6), I am going to stay away. If you have to bet this, I like the Arizona side more.

PURDUE at No. 17 MARYLAND, 2:00 p.m.

  • KENPOM: Maryland 62, Purdue 58
  • TORVIK: Maryland 59, Purdue 58
  • HASLAM: Maryland 59, Purdue 56
  • VEGAS IMPLIED SCORE: N/A

This is a perfect spot play.

Maryland has lost their last two games on the road, the latter of which was an L because of a fluky turnover with 12 seconds left in a game the Terps were leading. Purdue, on the other hand, is riding high after they beat Michigan State by 29 points at home.

The Boilermakers are 0-3 on the road in the Big Ten this season and also lost at Marquette. Maryland is 0-4 on the road but they have not lost at home this season.

BEST BET: If the line is Maryland (-4), I love it. If the line is lower than that, I love it even more.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Maryland opened at (-5) and has moved to (-5.5). The Terps are my second-favorite bet of the day.