2014-2015 Season Preview: Terry Rozier, Monte Morris headline potential Breakout Stars

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Terry Rozier (Getty Images) and Monte Morris (Getty Images)

Beginning on October 3rd and running up until November 14th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2014-2015 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

MORE: 2014-2015 Season Preview Coverage | Conference Previews | Preview Schedule

Last year, Frank Kaminsky entered the season as a no-name stiff that diehard Big Ten fans knew about. He ended the season as one of the nation’s most improved players and set himself up to be a preseason All-American as a senior. He was the epitome of a Breakout Star.

Here are 25 guys that are in a position to make that kind of an improvement this season.

THE TOP TEN

1. Terry Rozier, Louisville: Rozier was probably the best NBA prospect on Louisville’s roster last season, but playing as a freshman behind an All-American and the reigning JuCo Player of the Year will make it tough to grab minutes. Well, Russ Smith off to the NBA now, meaning that the opportunity is there for Rozier to shine. Expect the 6-foot-2 combo-guard to put together an all-ACC caliber season as the most talented member of Rick Pitino’s back court.

RELATED: Rozier is ready for his time to shine

2. Monte Morris, Iowa State: Morris played behind — and, eventually, alongside, as he started the last 15 games — All-American Deandre Kane as a freshman, so his production was somewhat limited. What’s tantalizing, however, is that long with the 6.8 points he averaged and 40.6 percent he shot from three, Morris averaged 3.7 assists to just 0.8 turnovers. After the start of league play, he had 103 assists and just 18 turnovers, including a seven game stretch with 46 assists and four turnovers. He’ll be the ignition for Fred Hoiberg’s high-powered offense this season.

3. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona: I’m torn on how I feel about Hollis-Jefferson as a breakout star. On the one hand, he’s a sensational athlete with the physical tools and intangibles — he defends, he plays hard, he’s aggressive — that make him a favorite of coaches, fans and media alike. And he spent the offseason improving the one weakness in his game: his jumper. But with Stanley Johnson and Kadeem Allen entering the program, and Brandon Ashley healthy, I’m afraid he’ll be relegated to being a role player for Sean Miller, limiting his numbers. Regardless, there aren’t five wing forwards in the country better than him.

4. Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina: Meeks was an inconsistent as any player in the country as a freshman. He’d have games where he played like a lottery pick with three games where he was completely ineffective sandwiched between them. He spent the offseason getting in shape, losing a ton of weight to the point that he’s now throwing down windmill dunks. He’ll be UNC’s low-post anchor this year.

5. Norman Powell, UCLA: Powell has spent the last two seasons as one of the west coast’s best-kept secrets, as he was stuck playing behind now-NBA players like Shabazz Muhammad, Kyle Anderson, Jordan Adams and Zach LaVine on UCLA’s perimeter. With a back court that is now quite young and inexperienced, Powell will take over the leadership role. If he’s not a first-team all-Pac 12 performer, it will be a disappointment.

MORE: Powell sees himself as a key for UCLA this season

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6. Zak Irvin, Michigan: Irvin averaged 6.7 points and shot 42.5 percent from three (on 3.9 attempts per game) as a freshman despite playing just over 15 minutes a night. Irvin shouldn’t be expected to make the same kind of jump that Nik Stauskas did as a sophomore, as he’s not the same kind of playmaker off the bounce. But he’s a lethal shooter and will score a lot of points keeping defenses honest and creating space for Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert.

7. Deonte Burton, Marquette: Burton has all the makings of a breakout star. He was a highly-touted recruit coming out of high school that played limited minutes (12.6 mpg) but was quite productive (6.9 ppg) during that playing time. He’s in a situation, with new head coach Steve Wojociechowski desperate for players with scoring pop, where his defensive liabilities can be overlooked and he’ll get plenty of shots. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t averaged 15 points as a sophomore.

8. Rysheed Jordan, St. John’s: Jordan posted solid numbers as a freshman — 9.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.0 apg — but didn’t play his best basketball until the final month and a half of the season, when head coach Steve Lavin started allowing him more freedom offensively.

9. Kasey Hill, Florida: A top ten recruit in the class of 2013, Hill struggled with ankle injuries and a shaky perimeter jumper, not to mention being stuck behind All-American Scottie Wilbekin on a veteran-laden team as a freshman. He’ll be Billy Donovan’s lead guard this season, and will be expected to produce like it.

10. Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga: Wiltjer was a top 25 recruit in high school, but he was never in good enough shape — or good enough defensively — to see significant time during his two seasons at Kentucky. All he’s done since is spend two offseasons and a full school year redshirting with the same staff that transformed Kelly Olynyk into a lottery pick. He’s the perfect four-man for a team with Kevin Pangos and Przemek Karnowski, at least offensively.

TEN MORE TO KEEP AN EYE ON

  • 11. Damian Jones, Vanderbilt: Jones didn’t get much attention as a freshman because he played for Vandy, but he averaged 11.3 points and 5.7 boards for the ‘Dores.
  • 12. Wesley Iwundu, Kansas State: Iwundu had promising moments as a freshman and should emerge as Kansas State’s secondary-option on the perimeter as a sophomore.
  • 13. Austin Nichols, Memphis: Nichols averaged 9.3 points and 4.3 boards for the Tigers as a freshman when the team was built around four senior guards. They’ll rely entirely on their front court this year.
  • 14. Anthony Gill, Virginia: Playing for Virginia is always going to limit offensive statistics, but the junior was the best big man in March for the ‘Hoos.
  • 15. Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin: It’s hard to put either Dekker or Hayes on a breakout player list, as Dekker was hardly a secret last year and Hayes will be a role player in a loaded front court. But Dekker’s grown, both in height and as a player, and Hayes is good enough to start for all but about 20 teams this year. Both are much more improved than their stats will show.
  • 16. Rodney Purvis, UConn: Purvis was a top 15 recruit in the Class of 2012, but averaged just 8.5 points in his first season at N.C. State. He transferred and sat out last season at UConn. Their perimeter is loaded again, but Purvis should be the No. 2 option to Ryan Boatright.
  • 17. BeeJay Anya, N.C. State: Like Kennedy Meeks, Anya was a highly-recruited big-boned big man that had promising moments as a freshman and lost a ton of weight during the offseason. His wingspan is 7-foot-9.
  • 18. Nigel Williams-Goss, Washington: Williams-Goss is low on this list because he averaged 13.4 points, 4.4 boards and 4.4 assists as a freshman. But he’s on this list because I think he has a shot to become an All-American as a sophomore.
  • 19. Keith Frazier, SMU: The former McDonald’s All-American averaged 5.4 points in just over 15 minutes. With no Emmanuel Mudiay this season, the Mustangs will need another source of back court scoring pop.
  • 20. ShawnDre’ Jones, Richmond: As a freshman, the 5-foot-10 Jones put up impressive numbers when his playing time increased after an injury to Cedric Lindsay.

HONORABLE MENTION: Troy Williams (Indiana), Wayne Selden (Kansas), Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame), Kendrick Nunn (Illinois), Nick King (Memphis)

North Carolina’s Armando Bacot to be ‘out a while’

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North Carolina’s freshman center Armando Bacot suffered a left ankle injury in the first half of Wednesday night’s game against Ohio State and did not return.

Bacot, who came down on a defender’s foot and had to be helped off of the floor, immediately when back to the locker.

“It was swollen by the time he got to the locker room,” coach Roy Williams said. “My guess is he’ll be out a while.”

The 6-foot-10 Bacot was averaging 11.7 points and 9.6 boards and was coming off of his best game of the season, when he posted 23 points, 12 boards and six blocks while playing a season-high 30 minutes against Oregon.

Michigan, Kentucky schedule basketball game in London

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ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Michigan and Kentucky have agreed to play a basketball game in London next season as part of a three-year deal that also includes a home-and-home series between the two programs.

Michigan announced the deal Thursday. The teams will play at O2 Arena in London in December 2020. The teams will meet at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor in 2021 and at Kentucky’s Rupp Arena in 2022.

“When the idea of playing Kentucky came up, we knew it would be an exciting opportunity, not only for ourselves, but for our fans as well,” Michigan coach Juwan Howard said. “What a unique three-game series. First, we get to showcase collegiate basketball overseas in London before playing that traditional home-and-home series in front of two of the nation’s best basketball environments.”

The teams have met seven times previously, with Kentucky holding a 5-2 edge. The Wildcats beat Michigan in a 2014 Elite Eight game in their most recent contest. When Howard was a player at Michigan, his Wolverines beat Kentucky in a 1993 national semifinal.

Film Room: How Ohio State handed North Carolina their worst loss in nearly two decades

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At this point, no one should be surprised when Chris Holtmann does something smart as a head coach, and I certainly was not surprised to see him find a way to smother North Carolina on the defensive side of the ball on Wednesday night.

In a 74-49 win in the Dean Dome, the worst home loss the Tar Heels have taken since 2002, when Matt Doherty was in charge, the Buckeyes held North Carolina to just 27.8 percent shooting from the floor. They shot 25.6 percent on two-point field goal attempts, the lowest number of the Roy Williams era. And I think so much of it had to do with what Holtmann did defensively on Cole Anthony.

The game-plan was, frankly, pretty simple. When Anthony had the ball, Ohio State climbed up in him, they hedged hard on all ball-screens and they sent bodies at him whenever he put the ball on the floor to drive. They made a conscious decision to force Anthony into either playing 1-on-2 and 1-on-3 or giving the ball up to a teammate. As soon as he gave the ball up, they face-guarded him. Full denial, even if it meant playing 4-on-4 for the rest of that possession.

And it worked.

Starting point guard C.J. Walker did the heavy lifting on Anthony, but he was hardly the only one. Luther Muhammad started out on Anthony before getting into four trouble and playing just nine minutes. D.J. Carton, Andre Wesson and Duane Washington all took a shot at UNC’s freshman stud as well. That’s a lot of bodies, all of whom have some size, some length and some athleticism and happen to be good individual defenders. Anthony got tired before they did.

This method was effective mainly due to the fact that because is one of the nation’s elite defenses. Combining all those athletic wings with a center in Kaleb Wesson that dropped the baby fat this summer is a luxury for Holtmann.

But it wasn’t all Ohio State.

Because what became painfully obvious for those that had not yet recognized it is that North Carolina has a startling lack of offensive weaponry. It’s almost like losing five NBA players to the draft is tough to deal with.

No matter who is on the floor with him, defenses are going to dedicate the majority of their attention to Anthony. He’s a game-changing talent. We saw him blow the game wide open against Notre Dame in the opener. He’s going to be the most dangerous player on the floor in just about every game he plays this season. But with a limited supporting cast to rely on, this is the decision Ohio State forced Roy Williams into:

1. Allow Anthony to go full iso-ball and try to win this game on his own taking deep, contested threes off the dribble or driving into two or three defenders; or

2. Run offense for the other guys on the roster even if the shots they are getting are tough shots for them. To put this into context, watch the clip below:

North Carolina ran that first play for Cam Johnson, the No. 11 pick in the draft, last season. This year it’s Brandon Robinson. In past seasons, the guy getting the post touch in the second clip was Kennedy Meeks, or Luke Maye, or Brice Johnson. Last night, it was Brandon Huffman. When they’re running pick-and-pop action like the third clip, it’s Garrison Brooks, not Maye, that is taking those jumpers.

If you’re coaching against North Carolina, I think you’re just five with Brooks shooting 17-footers. That’s the shot you live with.

Now, to be clear, Robinson is not a bad player. In fact, he’s significantly better than I realized coming into the season. And the x-factor here is that Armando Bacot played just seven minutes before spraining his ankle. He may “be our for a while,” as Roy Williams put it after the game, and even then, he’s been much better was a guy that cleans up misses than as a go-to scorer in the post. According to Synergy, he’s scored just .769 points-per-possession on post-ups, which is in the 42nd percentile nationally. You just saw all four of the post-up buckets he’s scored against high-major foes this season.

Bacot is a monster on the offensive glass, and his return will help keep defenses honest because of that. Sell out on a Cole Anthony drive like this, and Bacot is putting that miss back with a tip-dunk.

But that only mitigates the issue North Carolina has this season.

They don’t have enough talent around Cole Anthony.

Three Things to Know: Big Ten dominates, DePaul stays perfect, Georgetown wins

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It turned out to be a pretty wild night of basketball Wednesday. Purdue absolutely stomped Virginia. Villanova had trouble with Penn. Ohio State thumped North Carolina.

There is more where that came from, though, so here’s what else you need to know from a busy night of hoops around the country.

1. The Big Ten dominated the ACC in the challenge’s final night

As noted above, the Big Ten not only took care of business in the two highest-profile games of the third and final night of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but absolutely walloped their opponents. Truly, Purdue and Ohio State embarrassed Virginia and North Carolina.

That wasn’t the limits of the Big Ten’s success, however.

Third-ranked Maryland decimated Notre Dame (72-51) and Penn State smacked Wake Forest (76-54). Georgia Tech did beat Nebraska (73-56), and NC State outlasted Wisconsin (69-54), in the lower-tier games.

What we learned Wednesday was that the Big Ten’s strength at the top of the conference is legit, which may have been somewhat in question – at least in the immediate, attention-span deficient times we live in – after Michigan and Michigan State took losses to Louisville and Duke, respectively, last night.

The headliners, though, are what count Wednesday. What Purdue and Ohio State did sends the message that the Big Ten looks to have a real claim on being the country’s toughest conference.

2. DePaul trending up, Texas Tech not so much

Given just how bad DePaul has been in recent years – they avoided finishing out of the Big East cellar just twice in 10 years – it’s been fair to wonder how real this undefeated start to the season has been.

By beating Texas Tech, 65-60 in overtime, the Blue Demons made some progress in quieting doubts about the potential of this being a tournament team.

Dave Leitao’s team now has three wins against top-75 KenPom teams, with two (Minnesota and Iowa) coming on the road. They also knocked off Boston College on the road. Hey, the Eagles are still an ACC team.

Their statistical profile still isn’t great – they don’t shoot it all that well, they don’t take a lot of 3s and they aren’t strong on the boards – but they’re winning. All they’re doing is winning, actually.

It’s certainly a team with a lot of improved talent, and at some point, talent and track record have to take over from a history of losing.

That time appears to be quickly approaching.

As for Texas Tech, Chris Beard’s preseason top-10 team has now lost three straight to a trio of teams – Iowa, Creighton and DePaul – that aren’t expected to compete for conference titles, even if they ultimately prove themselves solid, tournament-level teams.

It probably shouldn’t be surprising to see the Red Raiders struggle given the amount of turnover from last year’s national runners-up, but unless they figure out a way to beat top-ranked Louisville on a neutral floor Tuesday, they’re going to enter conference play with the best win on their resume being Eastern Illinois (KenPom: 245). That’s not a great place to be.

3. Georgetown wins at Oklahoma State

This is a hard one to get a handle on.

On one hand, the Hoyas got a nice road win against a solid Oklahoma State team after losing two major contributors earlier this week.

On the other hand, Georgetown had two players on the floor against the Cowboys who are facing serious accusations of wrongdoing. Georgetown coach Patrick Ewing released a statement saying no player gets “special treatment,” but it still seems strange to see the Hoyas allow players under an unsettled cloud of accusations to take the floor.

A road win against a Big 12 opponent, even if the Cowboys were down a starter, is going to help the Hoyas build a resume that’s going to be much harder to compile without James Akinjo – whose departure is separate from any legal issues his former teammates are having – and Josh LeBlanc, but the way this is being handled makes that seem beside the point.

No. 6 Ohio State hands No. 7 UNC worst home loss in 17 years

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Duane Washington scored 14 points, E.J. Liddell added 12 points off the bench and Ohio State held Cole Anthony to 4-for-15 shooting as the No. 6 Buckeyes went into the Dean Dome and treated No. 7 North Carolina like they were the Michigan football team.

The final score was 74-49. It’s North Carolina’s worst loss since losing by 26 points at Miami in 2013. It’s their worst home loss since the Matt Doherty era, when then-No. 1 Duke won by 29 points in the Dean Dome in 2002.

That isn’t pretty.

Here are the three things to take away from this performance:

1. NORTH CAROLINA DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH HELP FOR COLE ANTHONY

Cole Anthony is a stud. He’s one of the most entertaining scorers in all of college basketball, and he is going to spend the majority of this season putting up absolutely monstrous numbers.

The problem is that he is going to have to put up those numbers if the Tar Heels are going to have a chance to win at anywhere near the level they expect, because there is a real dearth of scoring firepower on the roster around him.

You want proof?

The Tar Heels have yet to break 80 points in a single game this season. That’s not the norm for Roy Williams’ teams.

Now, to be clear, North Carolina played the majority of this game without Armando Bacot – we’ll get to that – and he is the second-best scoring option on this roster. So that certainly played a role in UNC’s struggles, as did the fact that Ohio State is the second-best defensive team in the country, according to KenPom.

But there are going to be plenty of games this season where the Tar Heels have to square off with teams that are really good defensively. And this game was played in the Dean Dome. UNC cannot blame a 27.4 percent shooting performance entirely on their opponent.

The truth is this simple: The Tar Heels have a bunch of pieces on their roster that should thrive in a role. Brandon Robinson is a good defender, a good passer and a guy that can make open jumpers. Garrison Brooks can get to the offensive glass and bang in the paint defensively. Leaky Black has the kind of length and versatility everyone is looking for.

But none of them have played well enough to be the third-option offensively for a team with ACC title and Final Four aspirations. The grad transfers, Christian Keeling and Justin Pierce, are nothing more than bench options, and rightfully so.

That means the Tar Heels are in a tough spot.

2. ARMANDO BACOT’S ANKLE INJURY SOUNDS BAD

I just spent 400 words explaining to you why North Carolina needs secondary scoring options alongside Cole Anthony.

Their best secondary scorer is Armando Bacot. He sprained his left ankle in the first five minutes of Wednesday night’s game. Roy Williams told reporters after the game that “he may be out awhile.”

North Carolina plays at Virginia on Sunday. They play at Gonzaga Dec. 18th. Uh oh.

3. THIS WAS AN OHIO STATE-MENT

First and foremost, yes.

I said that.

It wasn’t an editor.

It was me.

And it was good.

Second of all, this isn’t exactly breaking news, but this Ohio State team is awesome. As of this very moment, they rank second overall on KenPom, behind only Louisville. They are the nation’s second-best defense, and they are allowing just 0.781 points-per-possession on the season. (That’s really good.)

We all thought we knew this already. The Buckeyes beat Cincinnati at home. They blew out Villanova at home. But Cincinnati has been terrible since then, Villanova was playing their first road game of the season with a really young team and we had yet to see the Buckeyes play away from home. Like Louisville on Tuesday night, this was a chance for Ohio State to make themselves known on a national stage with everyone watching.

They did.

But here’s why this win was so impressive to me: It’s the second-worst loss that North Carolina has experienced at home in the last 56 years, and it came on a night where Luther Muhammad played just nine minutes and Kaleb Wesson finished with just 10 points, nine boards and six turnovers.

The Buckeyes can win when their best players don’t play well, because A) They’re deep and balanced, B) They are a team built on their defense and C) They are as well-coached as anyone in the country.

The Big Ten is absolutely loaded at the top this year.

And Ohio State may be the best of the bunch.

Which means they may be the best team in the country.

Who saw that coming?