There are 12 days left until Selection Sunday. Every morning from now until the bracket comes out, we’ll help you get caught up on the happenings with impact on the bubble from the night before.
Just for kicks, I’m going to give you a profile of a bubble team. You tell me if you think they’re tournament-worthy:
- 22-8 overall
- RPI: 46
- 5-8 vs. top 100
- 1-6 vs. top 50, with no wins better than vs. No. 40
- Non-Con SOS: 243rd
That’s Pitt after they lost to N.C. State at home on Monday night (but before the loss is reflected in their RPI, which means they could end up dropping out of the top 50). The Panthers have literally done nothing of note this season, feasting on a weak non-conference schedule before notching just four top 100 wins in ACC play. Their best win of the season came against Stanford on a neutral floor.
Is that strong enough to be considered a lock for the tournament? Well, let’s just say they may want to avoid losing at Clemson on Saturday or in the first round of the ACC tournament.
Here’s the comforting fact for the Panthers: losing at home to N.C. State, a top 75 team in the RPI, is their worse loss of the season. Dayton is the first team out in Dave Ommen’s bracket update from Monday morning. Their RPI is 49, and while they’ve beaten three teams with better RPIs than Pitt has, they’ve also lost to three teams outside the top 130, including to USC at home.
Pitt’s resume is empty, but there are a lot of unimpressive resumes this season. The question becomes this: do you value good wins or a lack of bad losses more?
MONDAY’S BUBBLE ACTION: After landing a massive win over Creighton on Saturday, Xavier (RPI: 46, KenPom: 41) looked like they had played their way off the bubble and into the NCAA tournament.
Monday night changed that.
For starters, the Musketeers suffered their third sub-140 loss of the season as they were significantly outplayed in a 71-62 loss at Seton Hall. That drops Xavier to 20-10 overall and 10-7 in the Big East with their last game of the regular season being a visit from Villanova. Lose to Villanova and drop a game early in the Big East tournament, and all of a sudden Xavier is in real danger of winding up on the wrong side of the bubble on Selection Sunday. That’s what happens when your three top 50 wins are outweighed by three ugly losses.
Here’s the bigger concern, however: Matt Stainbrook, Xavier’s starting center, leading rebounder and third-leading scorer, went down in a heap after injuring his left knee. The status of the injury won’t be known until tomorrow, but it seems very unlikely that Stainbrook will be back any time soon.
After looking like they had locked up a bid, Xavier is right back in danger of heading to the NIT.
- N.C. State (RPI: 72, KenPom: 91) still has a lot of work left to do, but they’re not out of the picture just yet after that win at Pitt.
- Oklahoma State (RPI: , KenPom: 27), for my money, has locked themselves into a bid after following up the win over Kansas by beating Kansas State. One more win — which would either be at Iowa State or in the first round of the Big 12 tournament — should convince everyone else.