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Bracketology: Flyers could be flying at home

miller

The University of Dayton is home to the First Four participants of March Madness. Even if the Dayton Flyers are one of those teams.

Today’s bracket update includes this very scenario, as the Flyers are the final at-large team in the projected Field of 68. They are matched against Tennessee in one First Four pairing; Baylor and Providence square off in the other grouping. Given the overall bubble picture, it’s hard to ignore Baylor’s non-conference wins over Colorado (when the Buffaloes were at full strength) and Kentucky. Plus, the Bears’ are riding a three-game winning streak. If we’ve learned anything, though, it’s that the bubble picture changes quickly. Case in point: Baylor visits West Virginia and Texas in its next two games and the Bears have not thrived away from home. Dayton also has a closing schedule that can help or hinder their NCAA chances. It starts with trips to Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s.

No changes today on the No. 1 seed line despite Syracuse’s unexpected home loss to Boston College. We’ll see how the Orange respond at Duke on Saturday night. It should be a game where two feisty teams try to undo an unpleasant result (the Blue Devils are coming off a defeat at rival North Carolina on Thursday).

One housekeeping note ... BYU is a true 11-seed after beating Gonzaga. However, accommodating BYU’s bracketing requirements (Thursday-Saturday sites only) forced the Cougars down a seed line (12-seed in South Region). The projected good news: they open in Spokane.

Enjoy a stellar weekend of college hoops.

UPDATED: February 21, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS - Dayton (First Round)


  • Tennessee vs. Dayton | Midwest Region
  • Baylor vs. Providence | East Region
  • ALABAMA STATE vs. UTAH VALLEY | Midwest Region
  • WEBER STATE vs. HIGH POINT | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION ...

EAST - New YorkSOUTH - Memphis
BuffaloOrlando
1) SYRACUSE1) FLORIDA
16) WEBER STATE / HIGH POINT16) DAVIDSON
8) Kansas State8) George Washington
9) Stanford9) Colorado
San DiegoSpokane
5) Kentucky5) UCLA
12) GREEN BAY12) BYU
4) SAINT LOUIS4) Iowa State
13) MIDDLE TENNESSEE13) MERCER
RaleighRaleigh
6) North Carolina6) Iowa
11) Providence / Baylor11) Saint Joseph’s
3) MICHIGAN3) CINCINNATI
14) GEORGIA STATE14) S.F. AUSTIN
MilwaukeeMilwaukee
7) New Mexico7) Pittsburgh
10) SMU10) Xavier
2) CREIGHTON2) Michigan State
15) VERMONT15) NC-CENTRAL
MIDWEST - IndianapolisWEST - Anaheim
St. LouisSan Diego
1) WICHITA STATE1) ARIZONA
16) UTAH VALLEY / ALABAMA ST16) ROBERT MORRIS
8) Memphis8) GONZAGA
9) Arizona State9) VCU
SpokaneOrlando
5) Texas5) Ohio State
12) NORTH DAKOTA ST12) BELMONT
4) Virginia4) Duke
13) IONA13) DELAWARE
BuffaloSan Antonio
6) Connecticut6) Louisville
11) Tennessee / Dayton11) St. John’s
3) Villanova3) Wisconsin
14) WESTERN MICHIGAN14) UC-IRVINE
St. LouisSan Antonio
7) Massachusetts7) Oklahoma
10) Missouri10) California
2) KANSAS2) SAN DIEGO ST
15) BOSTON UNIVERSITY15) YALE

NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State.

Last Five teams in (at large): Saint Joseph’s, Tennessee, Providence, Baylor, Dayton

First Five teams out (at large): Minnesota, Georgetown, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Arkansas

Next five teams out (at large): LSU, Oregon, Richmond, Indiana State, Florida State

Breakdown by Conference ...

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State

Atlantic 10 (6): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Geo Washington, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton

Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin

ACC (5): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

Big East (5): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. John’s

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers ... Middle Tennessee (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Davidson (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Western Michigan (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Yale (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Vermont (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), High Point (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Alabama State (SWAC)