Here’s a polite way of summarizing the current NCAA Tournament bubble picture: if you don’t like today’s First Four match-ups, wait for the next bracket on Friday. Today’s update finds a couple of Saints marching into Dayton: Saint Joseph’s and St. John’s. They are joined by BYU – fresh off a victory at Saint Mary’s – and Georgetown – which lost to St. John’s on Sunday night. It would have been interesting had three Big East teams ended up among the last four at-large teams; Providence was one spot away, a single slot ahead of St. John’s on the s-curve.
On a final bubble note, the Oklahoma State situation bears watching. How will the Selection Committee handle the Marcus Smart suspension? Each member may look at it differently, and it may depend on how the Cowboys play when he returns.
With its victory at Kentucky on Saturday, Florida passed Arizona for the No. 2 spot on the overall seed list. It’s worth noting, but doesn’t really impact the bracketing process. The Gators and Wildcats are not vying for the same natural Region (as we had with Louisville and Indiana last year). Syracuse continues to be the top overall seed with Wichita State as the fourth No. 1 seed.
Seeding for the two-line is ramping up fast and furious. Besides Kansas, five teams were in contention for three spots: Michigan State, San Diego State, Creighton, Villanova, and Duke. There’s not a right or wrong way to rank them. For now, MSU, SDSU, and Creighton grabbed those slots, with Villanova and Duke as the top two three-seeds. That should play its way out in the next three weeks.
Enjoy your hoops. March is right around the corner.
UPDATED: February 17, 2014
Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).
Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.
FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)
- Saint Joseph’s vs. St. John’s | East Region
- BYU vs. Georgetown | South Region
- SOUTHERN vs. UTAH VALLEY | Midwest Region
- ROBERT MORRIS vs. COASTAL CAROLINA | East Region
BRACKET PROJECTION …
EAST – New York | SOUTH – Memphis | |
Buffalo | Orlando | |
1) SYRACUSE | 1) FLORIDA | |
16) ROB MORRIS / CO CAROLINA | 16) DAVIDSON | |
8) Kansas State | 8) VCU | |
9) Stanford | 9) California | |
San Diego | Spokane | |
5) Kentucky | 5) Iowa | |
12) GREEN BAY | 12) BYU / Georgetown | |
4) SAINT LOUIS | 4) Virginia | |
13) MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 13) MERCER | |
Orlando | Raleigh | |
6) Connecticut | 6) Oklahoma | |
11) St. John’s / Saint Joseph’s | 11) Missouri | |
3) MICHIGAN | 3) CINCINNATI | |
14) GEORGIA STATE | 14) S.F. AUSTIN | |
Milwaukee | Milwaukee | |
7) Pittsburgh | 7) New Mexico | |
10) Colorado | 10) Xavier | |
2) CREIGHTON | 2) Michigan State | |
15) VERMONT | 15) NC-CENTRAL | |
MIDWEST – Indianapolis | WEST – Anaheim | |
St. Louis | San Diego | |
1) WICHITA STATE | 1) ARIZONA | |
16) UTAH VALLEY / SOUTHERN | 16) WEBER STATE | |
8) Memphis | 8) GONZAGA | |
9) Arizona State | 9) George Washington | |
San Antonio | Spokane | |
5) Texas | 5) Ohio State | |
12) DELAWARE | 12) NORTH DAKOTA ST | |
4) Wisconsin | 4) Iowa State | |
13) Iona | 13) BELMONT | |
Buffalo | Raleigh | |
6) UCLA | 6) Louisville | |
11) Minnesota | 11) Providence | |
3) Villanova | 3) Duke | |
14) WESTERN MICHIGAN | 14) UC-IRVINE | |
St. Louis | San Antonio | |
7) North Carolina | 7) Massachusetts | |
10) SMU | 10) Oklahoma State | |
2) KANSAS | 2) SAN DIEGO ST | |
15) BOSTON UNIVERSITY | 15) YALE |
NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State.
Last Five teams in (at large): Providence, Saint Joseph’s, St. John’s, BYU, Georgetown
First Five teams out (at large): Dayton, Richmond, West Virginia, Tennessee, Baylor
Next five teams out (at large): Arkansas, LSU, Marquette, NC State, Indiana State
Breakdown by Conference …
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas
Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State
Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota
ACC (5): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia
American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU
Big East (5): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Georgetown
Atlantic 10 (5): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Geo Washington, Saint Joseph’s
SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri
Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU
Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State
Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Middle Tennessee (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Davidson (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Western Michigan (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Yale (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Vermont (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Southern (SWAC)