Bubble Banter: Why the biggest game of the day was between Missouri and Tennessee

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There are 28 days left until Selection Sunday. Every morning from now until the bracket comes out, we’ll help you get caught up on the happenings with impact on the bubble from the night before. 

You can see NBCSports.com’s latest bracket here.

Tennessee (RPI: 50, KenPom: 25) and Missouri (RPI: 43, KenPom: 46) are both currently sitting right there on the bubble’s cutline, which is what made this game so significant.

The two programs are in strikingly similar situations. Both have just a single top 25 win, as the Tigers beat UCLA and the Vols knocked off Virginia. Both have a handful of top 100 wins on their resume as well. But most importantly, entering Saturday, both teams had just two games against top 50 opponents left on their schedule.

This game, and the season finale, when Mizzou heads to Knoxville.

What that means is that the only way that either team can significantly improve their profile for the rest of the season, barring a win over Kentucky or Florida in the SEC tournament, will be these two games.

Missouri got the first, which will put quite a bit of pressure on the Vols in three weeks to pick up a win.

THE REST OF WEDNESDAY’S BUBBLE ACTION

Winners:source:

  • Baylor (RPI: 53, KenPom: 48) picked up a huge home win in double-overtime on Saturday, knocking off Kansas State thanks to a three from Brady Heslip at the buzzer that forced the first extra frame. The Bears now have wins over Colorado, Kentucky and Dayton on neutral courts, at Oklahoma State and against Kansas State. The problem? Those are their only wins in the top 150.
  • St. Joseph’s (RPI: 45, KenPom: 69) added another top 100 win to their resume, going to La Salle and knocking off the Explorers. The Hawks are one of the teams right on the cut line right now, which makes a top 100 road win that much more valuable.
  • BYU (RPI: 49, KenPom: 55) stays on the right side of the bubble’s cutline — for now — as the Cougars went into Moraga and knocked off Saint Mary’s. To feel comfortable, they’re going to want to beat Gonzaga.
  • Providence (RPI: 58, KenPom: 55) did what they had to do Saturday: not lose to DePaul. The Friars are on the outside looking in right now, so they’ll want to beat Villanova or Creighton down the stretch to feel comfortable.
  • Cal: (RPI: 48, KenPom: 47) added another top 100 road win, knocking off Washington on Saturday. Four of their last six are at home. With a win over Arizona on their resume, the Bears should feel pretty good.
  • Marquette (RPI: 73, KenPom: 50) has nine top 60 losses and a loss at Butler (125th RPI). They added another top 50 win on Saturday, however, and will have five more games against top 60 opponents, including Creighton and Villanova. They need to go at least 4-2 down the stretch to make up enough ground.

Losers:

  • If N.C. State (RPI: 51, KenPom: 68) or Maryland (RPI: 71, KenPom: 53) ends up missing the NCAA tournament, they are going to look at Saturday, February 15th as the reason why. The Wolfpack lost to Syracuse in devastating fashion, while Maryland’s rivalry with Duke came to an end with a ball that hung on the rim.
  • Ole Miss (RPI: 61, KenPom: 78) may have been the biggest loser of the day, as the Rebels lost at Georgia. The Bulldogs are tied for third in the SEC, but their horrid non-conference schedule makes that a really bad loss. Ole Miss was on the wrong side of the bubble entering the day.
  • Pitt (RPI: 27, KenPom: 15) took one step closer to actually being on the bubble by losing at North Carolina on Saturday. They’re in, fairly comfortably, as of today, but with their best win being No. 46 Stanford and no more top 50 teams on their schedule, stumbling late could be disastrous.
  • Indiana (RPI: 91, KenPom: 72) got smacked by Purdue, meaning that a team with wins over Wisconsin and Michigan is just about out of bubble contention.
  • LSU (RPI: 65, KenPom: 70) cannot get out of their own way. The Tigers lost at Arkansas on Saturday night, yet another road loss for a team with four losses to teams with RPIs in the triple digits.
  • Oklahoma State (RPI: 36, KenPom: 31) lost a nailbiter to Oklahoma on Saturday, putting up a pretty good fight despite not having Marcus Smart available. The Cowboys are going to be a weird case for a bid on Selection Sunday.
  • Southern Miss (RPI: 41, KenPom: 77) lost at Middle Tennessee State Saturday by 17, which cost them their last chance at a top 100 win.
  • George Washington (RPI: 26, KenPom: 42) had a chance to lock up a bid this week with games against VCU on the road and UMass at home. They ended up losing both. With two top 25 wins, five more top 100 wins, and no losses outside the top 80, the Colonials are in good shape right now. But don’t let these two losses turn into a slide.
  • Xavier (RPI: 44, KenPom: 35) lost at Marquette, which isn’t necessarily a bad loss per se, but with losses to USC and Seton Hall already on their resume, Xavier can’t afford to mess around here. After Tennessee’s loss today, they will likely have just one top 50 win when the RPI updates.

Report: Western Kentucky’s Lamonte Bearden staying in 2018 NBA Draft

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Western Kentucky guard Lamonte Bearden will stay in the 2018 NBA Draft after hiring an agent, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Goodman.

The 6-foot-3 Bearden just completed his redshirt junior season with the Hilltoppers as he averaged 11.8 points, 3.4 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game. A slippery guard with good size, Bearden shot 47 percent from the field and 82 percent from the charity stripe while also getting in the passing lanes for 1.7 steals per game.

Although Bearden has good size and athleticism at lead guard, his perimeter jumper has been inconsistent during his college career. He was 31 percent from three-point range (a career high) this past season. Starting his college career at Buffalo, Bearden helped lead the Bulls to the NCAA tournament before opting to play in Conference USA for Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers will certainly miss Bearden’s presence in their backcourt as the program has seven new players signed for next season.

USC makes a statement landing Class of 2019 four-star forward Isaiah Mobley

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USC ended a strong week of recruiting with another major statement on Friday afternoon as four-star Class of 2019 forward Isaiah Mobley pledged to the Trojans.

The second major Class of 2019 commitment for USC during the week, the 6-foot-9 power forward joins five-star big man Onyeka Okongwu. The Compton Magic teammates should be able to help replace the loss of Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu, with Mobley playing the skilled, floor-spacing Boatwright’s role and Okongwu providing the interior energy of Metu.

Having two highly-touted big men commit in the same week is huge for USC. And it looks like the start of even bigger things in a continually-evolving SoCal recruiting war against Pac-12 rival UCLA.

Landing both Mobley and Okongwu is significant for the Trojans for a number of reasons. As previously mentioned, both come from the famous Compton Magic grassroots program that runs on the adidas Gauntlet. While landing AAU teammates from a regional program is common for high-major programs of USC’s stature, the commitments signify that the Trojans are the ones with the biggest pull with the Magic at the current moment.

And the Magic used to get raided by UCLA.

In the past few years, the Bruins signed T.J. Leaf, Ike Anigbogu, Jaylen Hands and Jalen Hill from the Compton Magic. Now, it’s USC who looks to be in the driver’s seat recruiting the program.

The Trojans aren’t done, either.

Newly-hired USC assistant coach Eric Mobley is the father Isaiah Mobley, as well as five-star Class of 2020 big man Evan Mobley. As Rivals national recruiting analyst Eric Bossi noted in his story about Isaiah, “Barring something strange happening, look for the younger Mobley to join his brother and father by committing to USC within the next two weeks.”

That would mean the Trojans would have landed three top-30 caliber big men in the span of a few weeks. That allows the USC coaching staff to recruit other positions extremely hard. Outside of Kentucky, USC has arguably the best future recruiting status of any program in the country.

The Trojans have taken full advantage of UCLA letting go popular assistant coach David Grace. The Bruins are still pulling in top-100 prospects, as evidenced by Grant Sherfield and Jaime Jaquez’s commitments in the Class of 2019, but losing two Magic kids in a week to a rival has to sting.

Considering where USC was last fall with the FBI investigation, who saw this type of recruiting swing coming? Other programs involved in the investigation like Arizona, Auburn and Oklahoma State have landed solid recruits. They also haven’t pulled in nearly the high-level talent that the Trojans currently have committed.

Even amidst the uncertainty surrounding the FBI investigation, USC is still pulling in elite talent while beating local rivals. It’ll be fascinating to see if the Trojans can continue to recruit at this level as they try to fill out the rest of an important recruiting class.

USF signs Oklahoma State transfer Zack Dawson

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USF landed a major addition on Friday as the school announced the signing of Oklahoma State transfer guard Zack Dawson.

The 6-foot-3 Dawson is a former consensus top-100 prospect coming out of high school as he’ll have to sit out the 2018-19 season due to NCAA transfer rules. A native of the region, Dawson will have three years of eligibility remaining once he’s able to play again.

Dismissed from Oklahoma State on Dec. 14 for violating team rules, Dawson averaged 4.4 points and1.6 assists per contest as he only suited up in five games for the Cowboys. Once Dawson is eligible to play for USF, he gives the Bulls a potentially dynamic backcourt along with rising sophomore guard David Collins.

“We are excited to welcome Zack back home to Florida as a member of the Bulls family,” USF head coach Brian Gregory said in a release. “He is a dynamic and versatile guard who can impact the game in a variety of ways. Zack comes from one of the best high school programs in the state, South Miami High School, so he immediately brings a championship attitude here to the University of South Florida.”

This is a really nice pickup for the Bulls, as they utilized a local transfer to help bolster the roster. Landing top-100 kids out of high school is going to be tough until USF boosts its basketball credibility. But getting a former top-100 player on the transfer market is a solid approach to building the Bulls into a respectable threat.

Michael Porter Jr.: ‘I’m the best player in this draft’

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The more I think about it, the more that Michael Porter Jr. is becoming the most interesting prospect at the top of the 2018 NBA Draft.

As a high school senior, he was considered by many to be the top player in the class, a 6-foot-10 combo-forward with a lethal three-point shot, NBA dunk contest athleticism and the versatility to, one day, be a multi-positional defender that would seamlessly fit into fit into the modern NBA.

But his one and only season at Missouri was derailed by back surgery, and that has allowed the rest of the class of 2017 to shine while we have focused on everything else that comes with drafting Porter. The reputation that he had for the majority of his high school career of being soft. The intel that was coming out of Missouri, that he was cocky and arrogant and something of a bad teammate. Questions about whether or not he is truly a wing or a four, more like a more athletic Lauri Markkanen.

When the only thing that we’ve had a chance to see this season is an out-of-shape Porter struggling in postseason games, it shouldn’t really be a surprise that his hype train has derailed.

“I know without a doubt that I’m the — I played against all these guys, they’re all great players — but I’m the best player in this draft,” Porter told ESPN. “And I just can’t wait to show what I’m capable of.”

And therein lies the conundrum for any team drafting him.

I have little doubt that Porter is going to be able to score and score a lot in the NBA. I think he and Bagley are the safest bets to average 20 points at the NBA level before their rookie contract runs out.

But putting up points and playing on winning basketball teams are not one and the same. For a ten-year stretch after his rookie season, Rudy Gay averaged at least 17.2 points while making the playoffs once during that stretch. Is that what Porter is going to turn into at the next level? Or will be find a way to become the kind of NBA defender his athleticism says he should be and, by the time he signs his first contract extension, end up the player that Paul George is?

The mitigating factor here is that Porter is going to do a fantastic job in every interview he has. He’s an intelligent, charismatic and articulate kid that is going to be able to sell himself. The red flags that he has aren’t going to show when he’s sitting down in front of NBA general managers.

They would have shown up — or been written off — if there was a season’s worth of game-tape available, but there isn’t. What that means is that scouts are going to have to decide whether or not Porter, who by all accounts had a very impressive senior season in high school, is that player or the one that had the reputation for being soft for years before that.

And all of that is going to come after the doctor’s have a chance to examine his back to see if the surgery he underwent fixed what was wrong, or if this is the kind of situation where a recurrence is likely.

The result is the widest range for any player at the top of the draft.

He could sell someone on taking him as a top four pick. He could also slide his way down to the Knicks at No. 9 or the 76ers at No. 10.

Which is what makes him the most interesting prospect at the top of this draft.

P.J. Washington ‘definitely going back to school’ without first round guarantee

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Kentucky forward P.J. Washington is one of the handful of players that currently finds themselves in the tenuous position of having their name in the NBA draft pool without having a clear picture of where, exactly, they are going to end up getting picked.

Will they be a late-first round pick? Will he be an early second round pick? Will he even be drafted at all?

Washington told reporters at the NBA combine this week that, if he’s a first round pick, he’ll be heading to the NBA. If he only gets a second round guarantee, he’ll be returning to school.

As we detailed last week, getting selected in the second round does not mean a player is destined to end up being broke his first year out of school. In the last six drafts, only one college player picked in the top ten picks of the second round (31-40) did not receive a guaranteed contract. In the 2017 NBA Draft, every college player selected in the top 50 received a guaranteed deal of at least one year, and Thomas Bryant was the only player whose one-year guaranteed deal was at the league minimum.

That doesn’t mean that Washington should leave Kentucky if he’s going to be a second round pick. If he returns to school, becomes a 42 percent three-point shooter (and can make free throws) and proves that he’s more versatile defensively than he was his year, then he could move up into the first round in a weaker 2019 draft.

It’s a risk for him, financially, to leave after this year if he doesn’t get that first round guarantee. It’s also a risk to return to school, where the best-case scenario isn’t always what happens.

I don’t envy the decision he has to make, but I am glad that Washington will have every chance in the world to be informed about the decision.