Film Study: What’s behind Jabari Parker’s recent slump

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What in the world has happened to Jabari Parker?

Three weeks ago, he was being hailed as the best offensive weapon in the history of college basketball. Ok, that may be overstating it just a bit, but there really wasn’t much that Parker wasn’t doing on the offensive end of the floor. Put a smaller defender on him and he would abuse them in the post. Put a bigger defender on him and he’d show off his highly-developed perimeter repertoire. He finished alley-oops a possession after grabbing a defensive rebound and going coast-to-coast for a dunk.

He was special, and Duke looked like a legitimate title contender.

But Jabari hasn’t been the same player since the calendar turn, and that no doubt plays a major role in why Duke has suddenly looked like a borderline top 25 team.

Check out these numbers:

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It’s pretty clear that his numbers have gone way down.

But why?

The obvious answer is the ‘Freshman Wall’, and there is certainly some merit to that. There is plenty of film to study on Parker at this point in the season, which means that coaches in the ACC are going to know what he’s done well and what he’s struggled with. Opponents will be game-planning around slowing him down. This is the first time in his career that he’s been scouted this thoroughly and he’s going to have to learn to adjust to what defenses are taking away. When you are as good as Parker is on the offensive end of the floor, defenses are going to be designed to slow you down. That’s just how it works.

And it’s also fair to assume that, eventually, Parker was going to regress to the mean. He shot lights-out for the first month of the season, especially from beyond the arc. No one can possibly keep up that rate, and while Parker was always a threat from the perimeter, he was never really known as an elite three-point marksman.

There’s more to it than that, however. I went through Synergy and watched about three hours worth of film on Parker and this is what I came away with:

1) Parker is settling for jumpers

The guy that was the nation’s most versatile offensive weapon has become a one-trick pony in recent games. He’s not posting up as often anymore. The majority of the looks that he is getting are coming off of spot-up jumpers and isolations where Parker settles for contested, step-back jumpers. To get an idea of his aggressiveness, Parker shot 43 threes and 70 free throws in the first 12 games. In the last five, he’s shot 21 threes and just 14 free throws.

There are two reasons for this:

  • Opponents are defending him with bigger, more athletic opponents. Virginia used Akil Mitchell on him. Notre Dame used Zach Auguste and Austin Burgett. Georgia Tech put Kammeon Holsey on him. His best game in ACC play came when he was guarded by 6-foot-7, 215 lb freshman Jaron Blossomgame at Clemson. As a result, when Parker does get his post touches, they come farther away from the rim and he has a tendency to simply face-up and shoot over the defender. On the perimeter, since he’s not getting all the way to the rim as easily as before, they are able to challenge those perimeter jumpers more easily thanks to their size and length.
  • For a guy that is as talented and well-rounded offensively as Parker is, Duke certainly doesn’t run a lot of sets for him. When they do, he’s not running off of down screens or getting a chance to curl to the rim, he’s getting set up for a chance to square his man up and go one-on-one. I did a breakdown here of how Creighton uses Doug McDermott off the ball, running him off screen after screen after screen in the half court. Far too often, Parker simply spends a possession standing in the corner. Granted, Duke has more weapons offensively that Creighton does, but it’s still striking how often he’s essentially a decoy used to pull a big man away from the rim.

2) Is Parker out of shape?

Parker’s legs look like they’re dead. He’s not getting as much lift on his jumpshot as he was early in the season. When players are feeling good, they miss long. When they’re tired, they miss short because their shot is flat, or to the right or left, losing some accuracy as they try to get a little bit of extra ‘oomph’ on their jumper. This problem gets magnified by the fact that Parker is becoming so much more reliant on that jumper.

Parker was never going to be confused with Patric Young in terms of his physique, but early on in the season, he looked svelte, like he had lost a few pounds since his high school days. I saw the Blue Devils in person five times in the first month of the season, so maybe it’s TV playing tricks on me, but it looks like he’s added a bit of weight as well. A heavier frame certainly won’t help dead legs.

3) Is his defense affecting his offense?

Watching film on Duke, it was striking seeing just how poor of a defender Parker is. Part of it is that he’s being forced to play out of position. Often times, he’s guarding an opponent’s best interior player, and that can take a lot out of a player’s legs. But there’s more to it than that. He loses track of his man defensively. He’s late rotating from helpside. He routinely forgets to box his man out.

That’s part of the reason that Parker was benched for the final 3:35 in the loss against Notre Dame, which makes you wonder how much of this recent slump is simply Parker losing some of his confidence on the offensive end of the floor.

Whatever the case may be, the bottom line is that Jabari Parker is not playing well right now.

Duke will not be a legitimate threat to win anything until he is.

Bubbles brewing with season on horizon

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
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INDIANAPOLIS — With the coronavirus pandemic already forcing changes for college basketball, a bubble may be brewing in Indianapolis.

Indiana Sports Corp. released a 16-page proposal Friday that calls for turning the city convention center’s exhibition halls and meeting rooms into basketball courts and locker rooms. There would be expansive safety measures and daily COVID-19 testing.

The all-inclusive price starts at $90,000 per team and would cover 20 hotel rooms per traveling party, testing, daily food vouchers ranging from $30-$50 and the cost of game officials. Sports Corp. President Ryan Vaughn said the price depends on what offerings teams or leagues choose.

“The interest has been high,” Vaughn said. “I think as conferences figure out what conference and non-conference schedules are going to look like, we’re we’re a very good option for folks. I would tell you we’ve had conversations with the power six conferences, mid-majors, it’s really kind of all over the Division I spectrum.”

Small wonder: The NCAA this week announced teams could start ramping up workouts Monday, with preseason practices set to begin Oct. 14. Season openers, however, were pushed back to Nov. 25 amid wide-ranging uncertainty about campus safety and team travel in the pandemic.

There is already scrambling going on and some of the marquee early-season tournaments have already been impacted.

The Maui Invitational will be moved from Hawaii to Asheville, North Carolina, with dates still to be determined and organizers clear that everyone involved “will be in a bubble environment that limits their movement and interaction outside the venue.” The Batttle 4 Atlantis has been canceled. The Cancun Challenge will be held in Melbourne, Florida, not Mexico.

More changes almost certainly will be coming, including what to do with the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.

“I think we’re past the guesswork on whether we play 20 conference games or more than that,” Purdue coach Matt Painter said Friday. “We’re trying to get everybody set like in terms of MTEs (multi-team events), figuring out when to play the ACC-Big Ten challenge.”

Painter, who was part of the NCAA committee that recommended how to start the season, noted part of the uncertainty stems from differing protocols imposed by campus, city and state officials.

In Indianapolis, Vaughn believes the convention center, nearby hotels, restaurants and downtown businesses, many within walking distance of the venue, could safely accommodate up to 24 teams. The 745,000-square foot facility would feature six basketball courts and two competition courts.

Anyone entering the convention center would undergo saliva-based rapid response testing, which would be sent to a third-party lab for results. Others venues could be added, too, potentially with more fans, if the case numbers decline.

If there is a taker, the event also could serve as a dry run for the 2021 Final Four, also slated for Indy.

“It’s not going to hurt,” Vaughn said. “I can tell you all the planning we’re doing right now is the same for a Final Four that’s been scheduled here for any other year. But it would be nice to have this experience under our belt to see if it can be done.”

Maui Invitational moving to North Carolina during pandemic

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
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ASHEVILLE, N.C. — The Maui Invitational is moving to the mainland during the coronavirus pandemic.

One of the premier preseason tournaments on the college basketball schedule, the Maui Invitational will be played at the Harrah’s Cherokee Center in downtown Asheville, North Carolina.

Dates for the tournament announced Friday have yet to be finalized. The NCAA announced Wednesday that the college basketball season will begin Nov. 25.

This year’s Maui Invitational field includes Alabama, Davidson, Indiana, North Carolina, Providence, Stanford, Texas and UNLV.

All teams, staff, officials, and personnel will be in a bubble environment that limits their movement and interaction outside the venue.

Burton eligible at Texas Tech after 2 seasons at Wichita State

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
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LUBBOCK, Texas — Junior guard Jamarius Burton has been granted a waiver from the NCAA that makes him eligible to play this season for Texas Tech after starting 52 games the past two seasons for Wichita State.

Texas Tech coach Chris Beard announced the waiver Thursday, which came five months after Burton signed with the Big 12 team.

Burton has two seasons of eligibility remaining, as well as a redshirt season he could utilize. He averaged 10.3 points and 3.4 assists per game as a sophomore at Wichita State, where he played 67 games overall.

Burton is from Charlotte. He helped lead Independence High School to a 31-1 record and the North Carolina Class 4A state championship as a senior there.

NCAA season set to open day before Thanksgiving

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The NCAA men’s and women’s basketball season will begin on Nov. 25, the day before Thanksgiving.

The Division I Council voted Wednesday to push the start date back from the originally scheduled Nov. 10 as one of several precautions against the spread of coronavirus.

The later start date coincides with the decision most schools made to send students home from Thanksgiving until January out of concern about a potential late-fall and early-winter flareup of COVID-19. Closed campuses could serve as a quasi bubble for players and provide a window for non-conference games.

The maximum number of regular-season games has been reduced from 31 to 27. The minimum number of games for consideration for the NCAA Tournament was cut from 25 to 13.

Teams can start preseason practices Oct. 14 but will be allowed to work out 12 hours per week beginning Monday.

No scrimmages against other teams or exhibitions are allowed.

In other action, the council voted to extend the recruiting dead period for all sports through Dec. 31. In-person recruiting is not allowed during a dead period, though phone calls and other correspondence are allowed.

The men’s and women’s basketball oversight committees had jointly recommended a start date of Nov. 21, which would have allowed for games to be played on the weekend before Thanksgiving. The council opted not to do that to avoid a conflict with regular-season football games.

The council is scheduled to meet again Oct. 13-14 and could delay the start date and change other pieces of the basketball framework if circumstances surrounding the virus warrant.

UConn’s Tyrese Martin granted waiver to play this season

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
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STORRS, Conn. — UConn swingman Tyrese Martin, who transferred from Rhode Island in April, has been granted a waiver that will allow him to play for the Huskies this season.

The 6-foot-6 junior averaged 12.8 points and 7.1 rebounds and started every game last season for URI, where he was recruited by current UConn coach Dan Hurley.

NCAA rules require undergraduate transfers to sit out a season, but the organization has been more lenient in granting waivers during the pandemic.

Martin, 21, is expected to compete for playing time at UConn on the wing as both a guard and small forward.