It’s that time of the year again, which means that we are diving head first into our annual NCAA tournament bubble watch.
The way that it will work is simple: We’ll be looking at every team that our Dave Ommen, the best bracketologist in the business, considers in the mix for an at-large bid. In an effort to keep this somewhat manageable, we are going to assume that the top 36 teams in the field — every team that is a No. 9-seed or above — is “off the bubble”. This does not mean those teams are a lock to dance, it just means that they have given themselves enough room for error that we can take them out of the conversation until they do something dumb.
Dave’s latest bracket can be found here. The full NET rankings can be found here.
So with all that in mind, let’s get into the full NCAA tournament bubble watch:
ACC BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Florida State (NBC: 2), Duke (NBC: 3), Louisville (NBC: 4)
VIRGINIA (NET: 51, NBC: 9): Virginia won for the fifth straight time on Wednesday, blowing a huge lead at Virginia Tech (84) before Kihei Clark saved the day with a buzzer-beating win. They only have three Quad 1 wins and a 10-6 mark against the top two Quads with home dates left against Duke (6) and Louisville (10). They’re getting closer to a spot where they can afford a slip-up, but picking up one of those elite wins should do the trick and get them dancing.
N.C. STATE (NET: 57, NBC: First four out): The Wolfpack fell to 17-11 on the season as North Carolina (94) finished off a season sweep with an 85-79 win in Chapel Hill. N.C. State has a weird resume. They are the proud owners of three Quad 3 losses as well as four more losses to sub-70 teams on the road. That’s not good. But they beat Duke (6) by 22 points in Raleigh, which is just one of their five Quad 1 wins. They are 8-8 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents on the season. It’s worth noting that Markell Johnson, N.C. State’s best player, did not play in one of the three Quad 3 losses — Georgia Tech (78) — so that will be something to monitor for the Selection Committee.
AMERICAN BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Houston (NBC: 9)
WICHITA STATE (NET: 48, NBC: Play-in game): Wichita State bounced back from a tough loss at Cincinnati (53) by knocking off Temple (110) at home. The Shockers likely will not feel comfortable on Selection Sunday regardless of how things play out. They have a pair of low-end Quad 1 road wins, they have beaten VCU (60) and Oklahoma (49) at home, and they don’t have any truly terrible losses, but with just one potential Quad 1 games left on their schedule — all of which are on the road — and with just a single top 50 win on the season, I think the Shockers are going to have an uncomfortable Selection Sunday. The fact that they are 8-7 against the top two Quads without a bad loss is something of a saving grace at this point.
MEMPHIS (NET: 62, NBC: Next four out): Memphis is hanging on by a thread right now, and losing at SMU (81) on Tuesday night is certainly not going to help anything. They are still alive after landed a critical win over Houston (23) at home over the weekend, but Memphis still only has a pair of Quad 1 wins compared to three Quad 3 losses. Memphis is also playing with D.J. Jeffries right now, which complicates matters as well. They end their season like this: at Tulane (172), Wichita State (48), at Houston. I think they need to win all three at this point.
CINCINNATI (NET: 53, NBC: 12): The Bearcats shot themselves in the foot on Wednesday, losing at home to UCF (127). They bounced back and beat Wichita State (48) at home on Saturday, which gives Cincinnati an eighth win over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. As of this very moment, Cincinnati has just two Quad 1 wins and four Quad 3 losses, all of which came to teams sitting outside the top 100. They’re in a bad spot right now, and with just one more potential Quad 1 win on their resume, I’m not sure just how much they’ll be able to do to fix it. Beating Houston (23) on the road next Sunday has become a must-win.
ATLANTIC 10 BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Dayton (NBC: 2)
RHODE ISLAND (NET: 40, NBC: Play-in game): Disaster almost struck for the Rams on Wednesday, as they went into Fordham (272) and barely avoided what would have been a devastating loss. They’re now 20-7 overall with just one Quad 1 win, but they are 7-6 against the top two Quads. The loss to Brown (234) is ugly, but as long as URI avoids the landmines on their schedule, I think they can get an at-large even with a loss to Dayton (5) at home in March.
RICHMOND (NET: 52, NBC: First four out): The Spiders avoided disaster at George Washington (190) on Wednesday. Richmond had their five-game winning streak snapped on the road against St. Bonaventure (113), which is not a bad loss in real life but is a bad loss on an NCAA tournament resume. The Spiders only have one truly terrible loss to their name — Radford (162) got them on a neutral court — but with only three Quad 1 wins and a 4-6 record against the top two Quads, their margin for error is completely gone.
BIG 12 BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Baylor (NBC: 1), Kansas (NBC: 1), West Virginia (NBC: 6), Texas Tech (NBC: 9)
OKLAHOMA (NET: 49, NBC: 10): The biggest winner of the week was, without question, Oklahoma. The Sooners picked up a fourth Quad 1 win of the season with an impressive, 65-51 win over Texas Tech (20). It snaps a three-game losing streak that had dropped Oklahoma to 17-11 on the season and sets them up for a massive trip to West Virginia (17) on Saturday, who they beat at home earlier this month. They are now 17-11 on the season and are sitting with a 4-9 record against the top Quad and nine total wins against the top two Quads. It’s also worth noting they only have two road wins on the season — at Texas (65) and at North Texas (89).
TEXAS (NET: 65, NBC: Next four out): The Longhorns won their third straight game on Monday night, as they beat No. 20 West Virginia (17) despite playing without Jericho Sims, Gerald Liddell and Jase Febres. Suddenly, a team that we had all written off is right back in the mix, as the Mountaineers are a top 20 team in the NET and the kind of elite win that Texas was sorely lacking on their resume. As it stands, the Longhorns are sitting at 17-11 overall and 7-8 in the Big 12. They have three Quad 1 wins, Monday night’s win as well as roadies at Purdue (37) and Oklahoma State (70), and a 5-11 mark against the top two Quads without a bad loss to their name. Saturday’s trip to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech (20) is going to be the make or break game. It’s not a win-and-you’re-win type deal, but I do think that taking a loss to the Red Raiders would mean that the Longhorns will have to beat one of the Big 12’s top four teams in the conference tournament to have a realistic shot at getting to the dance.
BIG EAST BUBBLE WATCH
Top 9: Creighton (NBC: 2), Seton Hall (NBC: 3), Villanova (NBC: 3), Butler (NBC: 7), Marquette (NBC: 7)
XAVIER (NET: 42, NBC: 10): The Musketeers shook off a loss to Villanova (12) at home on Saturday by knocking off DePaul (75) on Tuesday night. The best thing about this Xavier team’s resume is that they really have not taken all that many bad losses. Their worst loss of the season came at Wake Forest (104), which is a Quad 2 loss. It’s the only team ranked outside of the top 35 in the NET that Xavier has lost to. They only have three Quad 1 wins — and two of them are at St. John’s (73) and at DePaul (75) — but they do have a win over Seton Hall (17) in Newark, which helps quite a bit. I personally think that Xavier has to do more work that it looks like. They are just 3-9 against Quad 1 opponents, and that could drop to 1-9 if St. John’s and DePaul fall outside the top 75. With games at Georgetown (58), at Providence (50) and Butler (21), they’ll have three more chances to land Quad 1 wins. I think Xavier probably should win two of those to really feel comfortable.
PROVIDENCE (NET: 50, NBC: Play-in game): The Friars are now the official owners of the strangest resume in college basketball. On Friday, Marquette (24) paid a visit to The Dunk and lost. Providence has now won three straight games and have now won five of their last seven. All five of those wins are Quad 1 wins, and they include a road win over Butler (21), home wins against Creighton (8) and Seton Hall (15), and Saturday’s win against Marquette. The Friars now have seven Quad 1 wins. If you only look at wins, Providence is like a five seed.
The problem is the losses. There are 12 of them, and some of them are really, really bad. Providence lost to Charleston (145) and Long Beach State (298) on neutral courts, at Northwestern (177) and to Penn (144) at home. That’s two Quad 3 losses and two Quad 4 losses. It’s wild that the Friars are even in the conversation with all of that garbage on their resume, but they very much are.
GEORGETOWN (NET: 58, NBC: Off the bubble): The Hoyas are now sitting at 15-13 overall with a 5-10 record in the Big East and games left at Creighton (8) and against Villanova (12) at home. They have four Quad 1 wins and nine wins against the top two Quads, but they are just 4-11 against Quad 1 opponents. I think they need to win out during the regular season to get an at-large bid.
BIG TEN BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Maryland (NBC: 2), Penn State (NBC: 4), Michigan (NBC: 5), Ohio State (NBC: 5), Michigan State (NBC: 5), Iowa (NBC: 6), Wisconsin (NBC: 6), Illinois (NBC: 7), Indiana (NBC: 9)
RUTGERS (NET: 34, NBC: 10): The Scarlet Knights have one of the weirder resumes on the bubble right now after losing at Penn State (25) on Wednesday. They’re 17-11 overall and they are 9-9 in a Big Ten that is as deep as any league I can remember. They have three Quad 1 wins, just one Quad 3 loss and a 7-10 mark against the top two Quads. Eight of their ten losses are to Quad 1 opponents. They played a tough non-conference schedule, and they have some really impressive home wins. The problem? They’ve only won a single game outside of the RAC this year, and that came at Nebraska (189), who is the worst team in the Big Ten. Their season finishes with Maryland (9) and at Purdue (35). Rutgers has some work left to do, and I really think they will want to win both to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
PURDUE (NET: 35, NBC: Off the bubble): Purdue snapped a four-game losing streak when they knocked off Indiana (56) at home on Thursday night. They’re sitting here with a 15-14 record and a 4-11 mark against Quad 1 opponents and an 8-13 record against the top two Quads. They do actually have some pretty good wins, but the issue Purdue is currently facing is the the number of losses, including a Quad 3 loss to Nebraska (189). The most losses an at-large team has ever had is 15. For context, Indiana last season was 17-15 with six Quad 1 wins and nine Quad 1 and 2 wins and they were left out. Their best road win is at Indiana (58). They’re in a tough spot, and I think they need to win their last two regular season games and at least one game in the Big Ten tournament to have a real shot at this.
PAC-12 BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Oregon (NBC: 4), Colorado (NBC: 5), Arizona (NBC: 7), Arizona State (NBC: 8)
UCLA (NET: 76, NBC: Play-in game): The Bruins are making a push to get into the NCAA tournament. After a weekend where they completed a sweet of the mountain schools — the toughest road trip in all of college basketball — the Bruins knocked off Arizona State (45) on Thursday to take over first place in the Pac-12. They have won six in a row and 10 of the last 12. They now own a sweep of Colorado (22), they won at Arizona (9) and while they do have a Quad 3 loss — Hofstra (114) — and a Quad 4 loss — Fullerton (261) — the Bruins are now sitting on five Quad 1 wins, three of which came against top 15 teams, two on the road. The metrics don’t love the Bruins, but this win will help and if the metrics love Arizona and Colorado this much, it should mean quite a bit that UCLA was able to beat them. Their resume isn’t quite as weird as Providence’s, but both of these teams are going to give the Selection Committee a headache on Selection Sunday.
With games left against Arizona and USC (44), the Bruins will have the chances to play their way in. It’s wild to think that we’re here after the way the season started, but we are.
USC (NET: 44, NBC: 10): The Trojans snapped a two-game losing streak with a home win over Arizona (11), which is exactly what Andy Enfield’s team needed. They now have four Quad 1 wins and are sitting with a 9-8 against the top two Quads with an 8-7 mark away from the Galen Center, including five road wins. The home loss to Temple (111) is not ideal, but it is survivable. The Trojans still get Arizona State (45) and UCLA (76) at home. I think they’re still in a pretty good spot, but it’s not going to be comfortable if they don’t win at least one of those two games to finish out the regular season.
STANFORD (NET: 30, NBC: First four out): The Cardinal are now on a three-game winning streak after beating Utah (88) at home. They are just 3-5 against Quad 1 opponents, 6-8 against the top two Quads and have a Quad 3 loss — at Cal (136) — to their name, but they are playing well at the most important time of their season. They still get Colorado (12) at home and Oregon (19) on the road, so there will be chances to improve their resume, but the Cardinal will need to capitalize on those to feel good on Selection Sunday.
SEC BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Kentucky (NBC: 3), Auburn (NBC: 4), LSU (NBC: 8), Florida (NBC: 8)
ARKANSAS (NET: 41, NBC: Next four out): Arkansas won the second straight game with Isaiah Joe back on Wednesday, working over Tennessee (69) in Fayetteville. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins and a 5-10 mark against the top two Quads, but the more important record is this: They are now 17-5 on the season with a healthy Isaiah Joe. It will be very interesting to see how the selection committee handles Arkansas.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (NET: 54, NBC: First four out): Mississippi State significantly dinged their at-large chances by losing at Texas A&M (117) on Saturday. That’s the third bad loss on their resume, and with a win at Florida (32) and a sweep of Arkansas (41) the only notable accomplishments to date, the Bulldogs find themselves in a tough spot. Saturday’s win against Alabama (39) at home on Tuesday helps, but that’s only a Quad 2 win. The Bulldogs have just two Quad 1 wins to date. What’s worse is that they only get one more Quad 1 opportunity in the regular season, and that’s a game at South Carolina (64).
SOUTH CAROLINA (NET: 64, NBC: Next four out): The Gamecocks snapped a two-game losing streak and avoided disaster by beating Georgia (90) in overtime at home on Wednesday. With just one Quad 1 opportunity left on their schedule — at Alabama (39) on Saturday — I think Frank Martin’s club needs to win out to get in, and even that might not be enough.
BUBBLE WATCH FOR EVERYONE ELSE
TOP 9: Gonzaga (NBC: 1), San Diego State (NBC: 1), BYU (NBC: 6), Saint Mary’s (NBC: 8)
UTAH STATE (NET: 38, NBC: 11): After wiping the floor with San Jose State (280), the Aggies have won six in a row and nine of their last ten games, ensuring they are still in the NCAA tournament mix and fully turning around a season that looked like it was lost as recently as five weeks ago. Wins over LSU (29) and Florida (33) are nice, but with three road losses to sub-85 teams and no more chances to land marquee wins, how are they going to make up for those losses? They don’t play another top 100 team the rest of the season. I don’t see how they can feel comfortable about getting in without beating San Diego State (5) in the MWC tournament.
EAST TENNESSEE STATE (NET: 39, NBC: 11): The Buccaneers survived a trip to Wofford (151) on Wednesday night. ETSU has gotten through the toughest part of their schedule. They have a win at UNCG (60) and a win at LSU (33). With a 22-4 record and a Quad 4 loss to Mercer (197) at home, the Buccaneers have to win out and lose to only UNCG or Furman in the SoCon tournament to have a chance, and even that might be a bit of a longshot.
NORTHERN IOWA (NET: 46, NBC: 11): Northern Iowa took care of business against a bad Evansville team on Wednesday. UNI has a win at Colorado (22) and they beat South Carolina (64) on a neutral court, but they are 5-3 against the top two Quads with a pair of Quad 3 losses. I want to see them get an at-large — every one of their non-Quad 1 losses is a road game in league play — but I’m not sure they have done enough to beat out some of these power conference teams.
