1 seeds still up for grabs in new NCAA tourney projections

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We should be in for an exciting week.  It’s not often that so many potential at-large spots and seeding questions remain this close to Selection Sunday.  Which means several teams – many from the SEC in particular – will be paying close attention to conference tournament results.  A surprise winner or two could jolt the at-large pool.

For now, Duke reclaims the overall top seed.  Ryan Kelly has returned and is playing at a high level.  That brings the Blue Devils’ full profile back into play, and it’s pretty good.  But the race isn’t over.  Gonzaga, Kansas, Indiana, Louisville, Georgetown, New Mexico, and a second Big Ten team are all contenders for a No. 1 seed.  Conference tournaments could play a decisive role.

The bubble remains what it is.  So despite some losses this week, not a lot has changed.  Thankfully, a week remains to help sort things out.  Given the turmoil, several teams could still make a late push.  We have a long way to go and a short time to get there.  Buckle up.

Quick note: As we’ve entered conference tournament play, teams in ALL-CAPS no longer appear in the bracket.  We’ll begin using the CAPS as a indication of a team’s automatic bid.  The first of which will be handed out on Saturday.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Virginia vs. Tennessee | East Region
  • Iowa State vs. La Salle | South Region
  • Norfolk State vs. Charleston-Southern | South Region
  • Southern vs. Northeastern | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTWashington, DC MIDWESTIndianapolis              
Philadelphia Dayton
1) Duke 1) INDIANA
16) Mercer 16) Southern / Northeastern
8) Illinois 8) Missouri
9) Memphis 9) Cincinnati
San Jose Salt Lake
5) Arizona 5) Saint Louis
12) Belmont 12) Middle Tennesse State
4) Marquette 4) UNLV
13) Bucknell 13) Louisiana Tech
Kansas City Austin
6) Pittsburgh 6) VCU
11) Tennessee / Virginia 11) Boise State
3) Kansas State 3) Miami-FL
14) S.F. Austin 14) Montana
Auburn Hills Lexington
7) Butler 7) Oregon
10) California 10) Wichita State
2) Michigan State 2) Louisville
15) Niagara 15) South Dakota State
SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles
Kansas City Salt Lake
1) Kansas 1) Gonzaga
16) Norfolk St / Charleston-So 16) Long Beach State
8) Colorado State 8) San Diego State
9) Creighton 9) Colorado
San Jose Dayton
5) Wisconsin 5) Oklahoma State
12) Saint Mary’s 12) Villanova
4) Syracuse 4) Ohio State
13) Davidson 13) Akron
Lexington Auburn Hills
6) Notre Dame 6) UCLA
11) Iowa State / La Salle 11) Temple
3) Florida 3) Michigan
14) Stony Brook 14) Valparaiso
Austin Philadelphia
7) North Carolina 7) NC State
10) Minnesota 10) Oklahoma
2) New Mexico 2) Georgetown
15) Robert Morris 15) Princeton

NOTES on the BRACKET: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Gonzaga, Indiana, and Kansas. Next in line: Louisville, New Mexico, Georgetown, Michigan State.

Last Five teams in (at large): Saint Mary’s, La Salle, Iowa State, Tennessee, Virginia

First Five teams out (at large): Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, Iowa, Massachusetts

Next Five teams out (at large): Arkansas, Maryland, Baylor, Xavier, Providence

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Mountain West (5): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon, California

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State

Atlantic 10 (5): Butler, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Saint Louis

ACC (5): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL, Virginia

SEC (3): Missouri, Florida, Tennessee

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … BELMONT (Ohio Valley), BUCKNELL (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(Summit), VALPARAISO (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), LOUISIANA TECH (WAC), NIAGARA (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), AKRON (MAC), MERCER (A-Sun), PRINCETON (IVY), LONG BEACH (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), STONY BROOK (American East), MONTANA (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN (Big South), ROBERT MORRIS (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)