No doubting ‘Canes — they’re a 1 seed in our new NCAA tourney projections

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Healthy and playing some sugar-sweet basketball, the Miami Hurricanes are the latest team to grab a No. 1 seed in our latest bracket.  Miami sits atop the East Region.  Despite a last-second loss at Illinois, Indiana remains the No. 1 overall seed thanks to an impressive road win at Ohio State on Sunday.  Michigan and Duke are the other top seeds.  Based on recent history, however, the race for the top line is far from over.  Arizona, Florida, Gonzaga, and Michigan State are in the mix, too.  And it’s not too late for Syracuse to move back up.  Then there’s Kansas, which put together an impressive bounce-back against rival Kansas State on Monday.

Bracket rules what they are, there are a few quirks in this edition – such as potential third-round rematches between Illinois and Gonzaga and Kentucky and Duke.  While the Selection Committee tries to avoid such rematches in the first two/three rounds, it’s not a hard-and-fast rule.  In these cases, other conflicts created the rematch scenarios.  In fact, Illinois is one a few teams that moved a seed line to avoid bracket conflicts.  A true nine seed (s-curve No. 36), the Illini couldn’t be placed in the top half of any region because of other Big Ten opponents.  Such moves are not uncommon.

As for the bottom of the bracket – or the bubble – Baylor, Temple, La Salle, Saint Mary’s, and St. John’s are the last five teams in today.  One could make a case for a handful of others. Virginia is a particularly challenging case and is the first team out.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 vs. Top 100 RPI teams – including a win at Wisconsin.  But they also have several troubling losses – none more than Old Dominion at home.  UVA also has a very weak non-conference strength of schedule.  It’s hard to be confident in the Cavaliers’ profile given the above scenario.

We have a long way to go.  Other teams knocking on the door?  Villanova, Arizona State, Massachusetts, Boise State, and Stanford.  And that might change by midweek.  It’s been one of those seasons.  Enjoy another great week of hoops.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • St. John’s vs. La Salle | East Region
  • Temple vs. St. Mary’s | Midwest Region
  • NORFOLK STATE vs. FLORIDA GULF COAST | Midwest Region
  • UNC-ASHEVILLE vs. SOUTHERN | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTWashington, DC MIDWESTIndianapolis
Lexington Dayton
1) MIAMI-FL 1) INDIANA
16) UNC-ASHEVILLE / SOUTHERN 16) FLA GULF COAST / NORFOLK ST
8) CREIGHTON 8) VCU
9) MEMPHIS 9) Colorado State
Austin San Jose
5) Ohio State 5) Marquette
12) St. John’s / La Salle 12) Temple / Saint Mary’s
4) BUTLER 4) Kansas State
13) LEHIGH 13) AKRON
Philadelphia Dayton
6) Oregon 6) San Diego State
11) North Carolina 11) Colorado
3) SYRACUSE 3) Louisville
14) DAVIDSON 14) HARVARD
Auburn Hills Lexington
7) UNLV 7) NC State
10) Oklahoma 10) Iowa State
2) Michigan State 2) FLORIDA
15) VERMONT 15) NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles
Auburn Hills Philadelphia
1) Michigan 1) Duke
16) BRYANT 16) LONG BEACH
8) Missouri 8) Kentucky
9) Saint Louis 9) Wichita State
Austin Kansas City
5) Oklahoma State 5) Wisconsin
12) MID TENNESSEE ST 12) BELMONT
4) Pittsburgh 4) Georgetown
13) LOUISIANA TECH 13) VALPARAISO
Salt Lake Kansas City
6) Notre Dame 6) Cincinnati
11) Baylor 11) Indiana State
3) NEW MEXICO 3) KANSAS
14) MONTANA 14) S.F. AUSTIN
Salt Lake San Jose
7) UCLA 7) Minnesota
10) Illinois 10) Mississippi
2) GONZAGA 2) ARIZONA
15) NIAGARA 15) WESTERN ILLINOIS

NOTES on the BRACKET: Indiana is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Miami-FL, Michigan, and Duke.

Last Five teams in (at large): Baylor, Temple, La Salle, Saint Mary’s, St. John’s

First Five teams out (at large): Virginia, Villanova, Arizona State, Massachusetts, Boise State

Next Five teams out (at large): Stanford, Charlotte, Bucknell, California, Florida State

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, St. John’s

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State

Atlantic 10 (5): Butler, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Saint Louis

ACC (4): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon

SEC (4): Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi

Mountain West (4): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Indiana State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … BELMONT (Ohio Valley), LEHIGH (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), WESTERN ILLINOIS(Summit), VALPARAISO (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), LOUISIANA TECH (WAC), NIAGARA (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), AKRON (MAC), FLORIDA GULF COAST (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), LONG BEACH (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), VERMONT (American East), MONTANA (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), UNC-ASHEVILLE (Big South), BRYANT (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Five-star guard Anthony Edwards reclassifying to 2019

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Five-star shooting guard Anthony Edwards announced his intention to reclassify from the Class of 2020 into the Class of 2019 on Tuesday.

The Atlanta native was one of the major breakout players of last summer, as Edwards earned rave reviews nationally with his strong play. Edwards is such a major talent, that upon moving up to 2019, 247Sports immediately put him as its new No. 1 prospect in the class.

The move is also good for college basketball fans. Because Edwards has the kind of scoring package and athleticism that will make him one of the must-watch freshmen of next season. Edwards joins a Class of 2019 group that doesn’t have a lot of star power and must-see talents. After averaging over 20 points per game in the Under Armour Association this summer, Edwards became one of the hottest recruits in the country.

Edwards told Evan Daniels of 247Sports that Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan State and North Carolina are the five schools currently prioritizing him — as he hasn’t set any official visits yet. With his ability to easily play above the rim, or knock down deep perimeter shots, Edwards is going to be one of the major recruiting attractions of this spring.

Since he’s jumping into the recruiting process so late, we probably won’t have a decision for quite some time. But once Edwards joins the college ranks next season, he’ll likely be generating headlines from the moment he starts playing.

Kentucky’s John Calipari calls himself an ‘overrated recruiter’ hours after losing James Wiseman

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Kentucky head coach John Calipari made headlines even after losing top recruit James Wiseman to Memphis on Tuesday afternoon.

After Wiseman decided to stay home and play for high school former coach Penny Hardaway and the Tigers on Tuesday, Calipari spoke with reporters before his Wildcats are scheduled to host Winthrop. According to a report from USA Today Network Tennessee’s Nicole Saavedra, Calipari spoke for over five minutes on the subject of recruiting, while providing the typical Calipari spin. Although Calipari can’t directly mention Wiseman’s name due to recruiting restrictions, he nonetheless made some pointed remarks about Wildcat recruiting.

“I’ve said it all along, I think I’m overrated as a recruiter,” Calipari said Tuesday. “We’ve had kids that made the decision to come here and it’s played out well for almost all of them. But my thing is, I want to be able to sleep at night. I want to make sure I’m telling the truth. I want to make sure I’m sticking with guys.

“I’m not saying that about anyone else,” Calipari continued. “Everyone recruits the way they recruit, but you’ve got good programs and good coaches and that’s why we don’t get everybody we recruit. We’re not the only ones out there trying to get good players and trying to help kids.”

While Calipari has the right to speak about the state of his program and the program’s recruiting at any point in time, these comments only hours after losing Wiseman definitely raise some eyebrows. Mostly because Calipari has an unbelievable ability to force attention back onto himself and his program in spite of a major recruiting loss.

Nobody actually believes Calipari is an overrated recruiter. He’s had the No. 1 or No. 2 ranked recruiting class for 10 consecutive seasons. He has two five-star prospects and one high-end four-star prospect in the fold for 2019. But he knows how to spin things into attention for him and his program, and it’s part of the reason he’s so good at what he does.

Clemson advances to title game in Cayman Islands

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GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands — Marcquise Reed scored 24 points and grabbed nine rebounds, Elijah Thomas had his second straight double-double and No. 16 Clemson beat Georgia 64-49 on Tuesday to advance to the championship game of the Cayman Islands Classic.

Thomas finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds for Clemson (5-0), which is off to its best start since the 2013-14 season. Shelton Mitchell, who scored a season-high 22 on Monday, chipped in with 13 points and David Skara had three of the Tigers’ nine steals.

Coach Brad Brownell won his 154th game at Clemson, three away from passing Bill Foster for second in program history.

Derek Ogbeide led Georgia (3-2) with 11 points. Nicolas Claxton, who scored 22 points in an 80-68 win on Monday, was held to three points on 1-of-9 shooting — but he had nine rebounds and five blocks.

James Wiseman picks Memphis over Kentucky

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In a move that was both shocking and not at all surprising, James Wiseman announced on Tuesday afternoon, live on Sportscenter, that he will be playing his college basketball for Penny Hardaway at Memphis, spurning John Calipari and Kentucky in the process.

“The whole city of Memphis knows my decision,” Wiseman said moments before unveiling a unicorn with a Memphis logo on it.

Wiseman, who has drawn some comparisons to Chris Bosh in the past, will join top 50 prospect D.J. Jefferies and four-star recruit Malcolm Dandridge in Penny’s second recruiting class.

The decision is surprising because of the obvious: Wiseman is a consensus top four player in the class. Many had him as the top prospect in the Class of 2019 before Tuesday’s news that Anthony Edwards would be reclassifying. And he just picked Memphis, who hasn’t been truly relevant in nearly a decade, over Calipari and Kentucky, the man that was responsible for making Memphis a powerhouse?

In a vacuum, that is baffling.

Except we’re not in a vacuum.

Wiseman, a Nashville native, moved to Memphis to play his high school basketball for Penny when Penny was still the head coach of East High School. He played his AAU ball for Penny’s AAU program, which was rebranded after Penny took the Memphis job. When that team did not make the trip to Las Vegas for the final July Live Period over the summer, Wiseman played for Hoop City Basketball Club, a program that was previously known as M33M and owned and operated by Mike Miller, who is now a Memphis assistant coach.

To be frank, it probably would have been more surprising if Wiseman had picked Kentucky over the Tigers.

As a player, Wiseman has a chance to be pretty good. He’s a 6-foot-11 lefty with a projectable 3-point stroke and enough size and athleticism to be effective in the paint in college. There are some concerns about how that game will translate at the NBA level — he’s not really a switchable big, his shooting isn’t  yet good enough to make him a true stretch-five, he’s not yet an elite shot-blocker — but this isn’t about the NBA. This is about Memphis, and Wiseman will be terrific for Memphis.

It is also a validation of the decision for Memphis to hire Penny.

Well, to be frank, the validation came when local products Alex Lomax and Tyler Harris committed to the program as a flood of season-ticket holders made their return to the FedEx Forum. The Memphis basketball program is back in the black, and after two years where Tubby Smith torpedoed the goodwill they had in the community, that matters.

But that excitement for a new head coach is only going to last so long if there isn’t a product on the court worth watching, and landing a player like this — someone that played for Penny growing up, that has a relationship with the coach, that played his high school ball in the city, that can be a potential all-american and lead Memphis towards the top of the American — is exactly what he needed.

And I’m sure Penny would tell you, his commitment was never in doubt.

Best Bets: Where do you want your money for the second day of the Maui Invitational?

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The second day of the Maui Invitational will tip-off tonight, the headlining game being No. 1 Duke’s date with No. 8 Auburn.

As always, here is a look at the slate of games from a gambling perspective:

No. 1 DUKE vs. No. 8 AUBURN, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN)

  • Line: Duke (-11)
  • O/U: 167.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: Duke 89.25, Auburn 78.25
  • KenPom Projection: Duke 82, Auburn 76

On paper, this game looks like it will be one of the most entertaining of the season.

Duke is already must-see TV every time that they take the court. That’s what happens when you have Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish on the court at the same time. Magic happens. Auburn, on the other hand, is really, really good themselves. If you haven’t seen them play yet, they are somewhat undersized — they like to play a pair of athletic, 6-foot-8 forwards that can space the floor and protect the rim up front — but they love to press and play in transition as much as anyone.

And it’s Auburn’s style of play that I think will play into Duke’s hands here. The Tigers want to play fast. Last year they finished the season ranked 18th in pace. This year, they are just 67th, but they have already played a couple of teams that tried their damnedest to take the air out of the ballin Xavier and Washington. They currently rank fifth-nationally in defensive turnover percentage, gambling for steals in that full court pressure to try and create opportunities for easy buckets at the other end of the floor. They attack the glass (fifth in offensive rebounding percentage), shoot a ton of threes (and make them at a 39.4 percent clip) and struggle to clear the defensive boards.

Duke?

Well, they want to play fast. That is the entire basis of what Mike Krzyzewski has built this season. He has three guys on the floor that were primary ball-handlers in the high school ranks, and that doesn’t include Zion Williamson, who is the nation’s best grab-and-go forward. They are built to play in transition, and they are already top 40 nationally in pace. Like Auburn, they pound the offensive glass (they get nearly 40 percent of their misses) and have some issues boxing out. They haven’t proven to be turnover prone yet, either.

There is something of an unknown here, as Duke has yet to face a team that is going to be able to pressure the way Auburn can, but I just can’t see that fazing them.

PICKS: To get an idea of how fact the line is moving here, when I started writing this, the over-under was 162.5. As I get ready to hit publish, it has already jumped to 167.5. The line for Duke has moved from (-10) to (-11). I got my bets in before the lines moved. I still love Duke and I still think the over hits, but if you are going to bet it, get it in quickly.

ARIZONA vs. No. 3 GONZAGA, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)

  • Line: Gonzaga (-10)
  • O/U: 154.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: Gonzaga 82.25, Arizona 72.25
  • KenPom Projection: Gonzaga 81, Arizona 72

Early on this season, Gonzaga is playing faster than they have in the past, which makes sense. With the talent and athleticism they have on their roster, they are going to be able to beat a lot of teams down the floor. Prior to Monday night’s win over Illinois, the Zags had scored at least 94 points in all three of their games this season and won all three by at least 23 points. That included a game against Texas Southern (who won at Baylor) and a win over Texas A&M, who was without two starters.

The game against Illinois was a different story. The Zags looked like they were ready to pull away when Trent Frazier went bonkers and made it a game. I do not think that Arizona — who is not your typical Arizona team — has the horses to run with the Zags this year. If it wasn’t for a takeover performance from Justin Coleman down the stretch on Monday night, the Wildcats would have lost to an Iowa State team missing four players, including two starters.

Yes, the Zags are without Killian Tillie, but Filip Pertrusev and Jeremy Jones have been somewhere between fine and good in his absence.

PICKS: Gonzaga (-10) is the bet that I would make here. I would lean toward the over as well.

XAVIER vs. SAN DIEGO STATE, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

  • Line: San Diego State (-1)
  • O/U: 153.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: San Diego State 77.25, Xavier 76.25
  • KenPom Projection: San Diego State 76, Xavier 75

This one is pretty simple: I think that Xavier is the better basketball team here, and after dropping one in overtime on Monday afternoon, I think the Musketeers will bounceback with a win here.

PICKS: If you can get Xavier (+1), then I would take that. I also lead towards the under here, as the total is pretty high for two teams that play good halfcourt defense. The under went 3-1 in Maui yesterday.

IOWA STATE vs. ILLINOIS, 5:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

  • Line: Iowa State (-2)
  • O/U: 154.5
  • Vegas Implied Score: Iowa State 78.25, Illinois 76.25
  • KenPom Projection: Iowa State 80, Illinois 74

The KenPom projection here would usually lead me towards taking the Cyclones, but keep in mind that Iowa State is playing without four rotation pieces, including their three best big men and their best guard. So it makes sense that the line would lean closer to Illinois.

PICKS: I think the bet here is Illinois. Brad Underwood is a smart coach, and he knows that Iowa State and their shortened bench will have tired legs. I honestly think the better bet is the over. Illinois really wants to run and neither team plays much, if any, defense. In fact, all Illinois wants to do is to try and force turnovers. They gamble and give up a lot of layups. Give me Illinois (+2) and the over.