Top-10 biggest upsets of the college basketball season

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The 2012-2013 college basketball season has been scrutinized by many for its lack of great teams and NBA superstar-potential. And while us college basketball aficionados are quick to point out that this season has been one of the most exciting in recent memory, it has come with some baggage.

For every remarkable finish, like Illinois’ come-from-behind, buzzer-beating victory over No. 1 Indiana on Thursday night, there is an ugly upset, perhaps none uglier than No. 5 Kansas’ 62-55 loss to TCU.

It makes perfect sense that during the first week in which college basketball has had the stage to itself, upsets have dominated the discussion. Ten teams inside the top-25 lost, including three teams inside the top-5.

But for those of you just making the switch to college hoops, this is not a new development. The fact of the matter is that bizarre, puzzling upsets have taken place all season. Upsets that us pundits could have not predicted “from seven galaxies away”, as ESPNU play-by-play announcer Mitch Holthus so eloquently stated during the late stages of TCU’s shocking victory over the Jayhawks.
 
 
10. South Alabama 76, @ Florida State 71 – 11/9/12
Records: South Alabama (0-0), Florida State (0-0)
KenPom differential: 144 (South Alabama 195, Florida State 51)
Spread differential: -18 (Florida State -13)

Perhaps foreshadowing what would become a season full of head-scratching upsets, the Seminoles dropped their season-opener at home to a South Alabama team that finished with a 8-8 record in the Sun Belt Conference in 2012. The Seminoles had lost a significant amount of production from their 2012 squad that won the ACC tournament, but they returned preseason All-American guard Michael Snaer.

Even with the current knowledge that Florida State is arguably the most fickle team in the country, with as many good wins as bad losses, a home loss to South Alabama is certainly worthy of a top-10 mention.
 
 
9. @ Arkansas 80, No. 3 Florida 69 – 2/5/12
Records: Arkansas (13-8, 4-4), Florida (18-2, 8-0)
KenPom differential: 76 (Arkansas 77, Florida 1)
Spread differential: -22.5 (Florida -11.5)

Shock value is why this upset makes the list. The SEC is the worst BCS-conference this season, and Florida had been destroying conference opposition, winning by an average of 26.5-ppg. In fact, their closest SEC road game was a 64-47 victory over Georgia following the Gator’s 31-point destruction of then-No.17 Missouri.

The Bud Walton Arena is a difficult place to win games on the road, and the Razorbacks have historically played significantly better at home, evident by their 14-1 home record this season. That being said, Florida entered the contest as arguably the most dominant team in the country and was expected to win by double-digits. They offered little resistance to the Hogs’ hot shooting and trailed by as many as 27.
 
 
8. Charleston 63, @ No. 24 Baylor 59 – 11/24/12
Records: Charleston (2-2), Baylor (4-1)
KenPom differential: 115 (Charleston 134, Baylor 19)
Spread differential: -21.5 (Baylor -17.5)

Looking back on it, this was probably not as big of an upset as the numbers indicate.

We now know that Baylor, despite their talent, is one of the most inconsistent teams in the country, routinely failing to show up against teams they should beat with ease.

Charleston is not a pushover or a bad team. They are the second-best team in the Southern Conference, and have a strong history of postseason success. But that doesn’t change the fact that they went in to Waco and defeated a ranked team that was favored to win by more than 17 points.
 
 
7. Southern 53, @ Texas A&M 51 – 12/22/12
Records: Southern (4-6), Texas A&M (8-2)
KenPom differential: 153 (Southern 248, Texas A&M 95)
Spread differential: Off the board

Heading into the contest Texas A&M had lost just twice, both times on a neutral court against top-75 competition (Saint Louis and Oklahoma). In the 2012 meeting between the Aggies and Jaguars, Texas A&M scored a season-high 83 points and beat Southern by 25.

The Jaguars’ 2-point victory was their first road win over a team ranked inside the top-150 in over a decade, and their first win over a BCS-conference team in more than 15 years.
 
 
6. Chaminade 86, Texas (2-0) 73 – 11/19/12
Records: Chaminade (2-1 D-II), Texas (2-0)
KenPom differential: N/A (Chaminade is a D-II school)
Spread differential: -29.5 (Texas -16.5)

Texas traveled to Hawaii to participate in the Maui Invitational with the knowledge that superstar guard Myck Kabongo was unlikely to participate due to the NCAA’s ongoing investigation into his eligibility.

And while Texas faced the Silver Swords on the 30th anniversary of their legendary upset over then-No.1 Virginia, no one could have predicted a loss of this magnitude.

The Longhorns not only lost, but were run out of the gym. As -16.5 favorites losing by 13 points, the Longhorns suffered the largest betting line differential of any losing favorite this season.
 
 
5. Columbia 75, @ Villanova 57 – 11/20/12
Records: Columbia (2-1), Villanova (3-1)
KenPom differential: 68 (Columbia 131, Villanova 68)
Spread differential: -28 (Villanova -10)

Villanova lost to a marginal Ivy League team by 18 points at home in unquestionably the ugliest home upset loss of the season.

Columbia has not made the postseason since 1968.

A loss to the Lions in any fashion would be considered a massive upset, but losing at home by 18 points to a team that does not provide athletic scholarships should be grounds for removal from the Big East.

Hindsight is 20-20, but this is the same Villanova team that beat No. 5 Louisville and No. 3 Syracuse in back-to-back games.
 
 
4. Winthrop 50, @ Ohio 49 – 12/15/12
Records: Winthrop (3-4), Ohio (7-2)
KenPom differential: 185 (Winthrop 233, Ohio 48)
Spread differential: Off the board

You may have not even been aware that this game took place, but not all upsets feature legendary programs and top-25 teams.

The Bobcats entered the game having lost just twice, both times on the road, and faced a Winthrop team that had yet to defeat a D-I opponent.

Heading in to the contest Winthrop had lost by an average margin of victory of 18 points. Ohio had lost just once at home in the previous season and despite losing their head coach Jim Groce to Illinois, returned their top three scorers, including 2012 MAC tournament MVP and Cousey Award finalist D.J. Cooper.
 
 
3. Cal Poly 70, @ UCLA 68 – 11/25/12
Records: Cal Poly (1-2), UCLA (4-1)
KenPom differential: 167 (Cal Poly 217, UCLA 50)
Spread differential: -20.5 (UCLA -18.5)

Until Kansas’ loss to TCU, there was not a more embarrassing loss this season than UCLA’s home defeat at the hands of Cal Poly. The Bruins led 51-33 with 12:21 remaining, but made just four field goals the rest of the way.

Cal Poly was picked to finish 7th in the Big West heading in to the season, and were 18.5-point underdogs heading into this contest. It was also the highest-ranked team ever defeated by Cal Poly, a team that joined the Division-I ranks in 1994.
 
 
2. Old Dominion 63, Virginia 61 – 12/22/12
Records: ODU (1-10, 0-1), Virginia (9-2)
KenPom differential: 195 (Old Dominion 237, Virginia 42)
Spread differential: -16 (Virginia -14)

Old Dominion is the worst team in a very bad Colonial Athletic Association. The Monarchs were so bad that the school fired head coach Blaine Taylor, the schools all-time winningest coach, with nine games remaining in the season.

It’s true, both of Virginia’s losses heading into the contest with the Monarchs were to CAA competition. And yes, it’s true, Virginia is not a potent offensive team. But that does not excuse the fact that the Cavaliers lost to a team ranked 284th in defensive efficiency and 318th in effective field goal percentage.

At the time it was an ugly loss and huge upset, and the Monarchs continued struggles have only magnified just how big of an upset this was.
 
 
1. @ TCU 62, No. 5 Kansas 55 – 2/6/13
Records at the time: TCU (9-12, 0-8), Kansas (19-2, 7-1)
KenPom Ranking differential: 265 (TCU 278, Kansas 13)
Spread differntial: -24 (Kansas -17 favorites)

You don’t need to look at the stats to know that this was the ugliest, most shocking upset of the season. TCU, a school with almost zero basketball pulse or identity, defeated one of the nation’s top teams and most legendary programs.

Kansas had not lost back-to-back games in 264 contests dating back to the 2005-2006 season. On the flip side, the Horned Frogs have mustered just two winning seasons in the past decade.

Kansas scored just 13 points in the first half, their lowest single half total of the season, and finished with 55 points, another team low for the season.

Prior to Wednesday night’s game, TCU had lost eight consecutive games and had not won since beating 3-18 SWAC bottom-feeder Mississippi Valley State by just three points on the same court.

This was not just the biggest, ugliest and most shocking upset of the season, but one of historic proportions.

Georgia lands 2019 guard Jaykwon Walton

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It’s been a busy August for Jaykwon Walton.

Nine days after committing to Mississippi State and seven days after de-committing from the Bulldogs, the four-star guard in the class of 2019 committed to Georgia and first-year coach Tom Crean on Monday.

Walton currently lives in Montgomery, Ala., but spent much of his life in Columbus, Ga. He committed to Ben Howland’s program on Aug. 11, but backed off that decision just two days later. Now, just a week later, he’s slated to join Crean’s Bulldogs instead.

The 6-foot-6 guard is a consensus top-75 player in his class. He averaged 19.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists last year as a junior at Carver-Montgomery High School.

“He is a tremendous player and a tremendous kid,” Carver coach James Jackson previously told 247 Sports. “I told him today that he’s been all over the world this year and has really played well. He always does what is asked of him and is a great kid in the classroom, too. He is an amazing athlete that is really humble and is a very grounded kid.

“When you watch him, it is like looking at a mirror of (former NBA player and current Memphis coach) Penny Hardaway in his younger days. Jaykwon can play any position on the court and can defend any position on the court. He has tremendous ability to create and can handle the ball well. He rebounds well and being 6-6, 6-7, he has that range that you want. He’s a great kid to coach and a kid that does everything well.”

Walton is Crean’s first commitment in the 2019 class.

Four-star center Kadin Shedrick commits to Virginia

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Tony Bennett has secured a second top-100 commit in his 2019 recruiting class.

Kadin Shedrick, a four-star recruit, pledged to Virginia on Monday, he announced via social media.

Shedrick chooses Virginia over a recently-trimmed list of Florida, Indiana, Louisville, Providence, Wake Forest, Wisconsin and Xavier. He visited the Musketeers and Demon Deacons before making an unofficial to Charlottesville over the weekend, apparently showing him all he needed to see.

“Virginia is a place where I can develop my basketball game greatly. They have a great track record of developing players,” Shedrick told 247Sports. “”They have a winning traditional as well, and I think that’s very important.”

Shedrick is a 6-foot-10 center that is a consensus top-100 prospect. He joins Casey Morsell, a top-75 guard from Washington, D.C., in Bennett’s 2019 class. Virginia has gotten the commitment of just one four-star prospect in the last two recruiting classes after securing the talents of four such players in 2016.

Baylor’s Jake Lindsey out for season after hip surgery

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Jake Lindsey’s senior season is going to be delayed a year.

The Baylor guard will miss the upcoming season after undergoing hip surgery, he announced Sunday.

“I will be redshirting this season as I recover from hip surgery,” Lindsey wrote on Twitter. “I can’t wait to help the team this year in a different role as I recover. I want to say thank you to everyone who has been helping me in this time, whether you know it or not.”

The 6-foot-5 guard has averaged more than 20 minutes per game the last two seasons as a 3-point shooting specialist and distributor. He averaged just 4.5 points per game last season, but dished out 3.4 assists while shooting 34.1 percent from distance (down from 40.4 percent as a sophomore). He will have one season of eligibility remaining in 2019-20 after sitting out this season.

Lindsey, whose father Dennis is the general manager of the Utah Jazz, battled the hip injury throughout much of last season, but did not miss any games as a result. His loss will be acute for the Bears, who lost four seniors off last year’s No. 1 seed NIT team including point guard Manu Lecomte.

Five Takeaways from Duke’s Canada Exhibitions

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Just like Kentucky did two weeks ago, the Duke Blue Devils spent last week traveling abroad to play in exhibition games that were televised.

Kentucky went south, heading to the Bahamas.

Duke made the trip up north so that Canadian R.J. Barrett would have a chance to play in front of his home crowd.

And while it was a little bit easier to see what Kentucky will have a chance to be this season — we’ll get into why that is later — we did get our first chance to see what Duke could look like.

Here are the four things that we learned:

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R.J. BARRETT IS THE TRUTH, BUT ZION WILLIAMSON SHOULD LIVE UP TO THE HYPE

At this point, everyone should know more or less what R.J. Barrett is.

He was the consensus No. 1 player in the Class of 2018 despite the fact that he reclassified last summer. (He turned 18 this summer, meaning that he is enrolling in college in what would be considered the normal year.) There is a long way to go still, but he is thought to be head and shoulders above the rest of the field when it comes to the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Last summer, he put 38 points, 13 boards and six assists on the USA team at the U-19 World Cup, which became first time since 2011 that USA Basketball was not the reigning champion at any age group in international competition.

Put another way, seeing Barrett steamroll a bunch of Canadian college basketball players should not be surprising if you know what he did against a team that included the likes of Carsen Edwards, Kevin Huerter, P.J. Washington and Romeo Langford, not to mention Barrett’s current Duke teammate, Cam Reddish. In three games, he averaged 30.7 points, 8.0 boards and 5.0 assists.

What was more eye-opening was the way that Zion Williamson played.

Williamson is college basketball’s first superstar of the internet age. His other-worldly athleticism has turned him into a social media machine. He has 1.7 million followers on Instagram. There are YouTube channels that have sprung to life simply because they were able to post his high school dunk. When he was a junior in high school, Drake wore his jersey. Every teenage basketball fan knows who he is.

The question about Williamson has long been whether or not he is more than just an athlete. He never left his local South Carolina high school, which is why those viral videos of him dunking often looked like he was playing against, well, me. He played on the Adidas circuit in high school, which is good but is not at the same level as the EYBL. I’m not sure there is a person on the planet that can match his explosiveness and quickness while checking in at 6-foot-7 and 285 pounds, as Duke lists him, but the question about his potential as a pro has always been what will happen when he is not longer on another planet athletically.

And at the risk of overreacting to three exhibition games against overmatched competition, I am much more bullish on him as a prospect today than I was a week ago.

There are three reasons for that:

  1. Williamson has a higher basketball IQ and is a better passer than I realized. It’s the little moments that give it away: finding a shooter after an offensive rebound, seeing a backdoor cut even if the pass he threw was not good enough to get the assist, the outlet passes he would throw to streaking guards before he even landed after grabbing a defensive rebound. He reads the game.
  2. He’s underrated as a ball-handler. He’s also hardly a finished product there, but he has good enough handle that he can be a sensation as a grab-and-go big in transition and will be able to beat bigger (well, slower, he’s pretty big) defenders off the bounce. That’s key because his shooting still needs work.
  3. He just plays so damn hard. When someone his size with his leaping ability decides that they want to go and get a rebound, how are you going to stop him? And while things like handle or shooting or defensive positioning can be taught, ‘motor’ cannot.

Williamson probably could stand to lose 20 or 25 pounds*, which will likely also help with him improving on his conditioning; he seemed to tire for stretches in these exhibitions, which is understandable considering the load he and Barrett carried and the fact that, you know, he is 285 pounds. And that jumper needs some consistency.

But those are fairly easy problems to fix, all things considered.

Which is why I think Williamson is going to come much closer to living up to the hype than I did before this trip.

*(The “Zion is fine at 285” crowd annoys me. Yes, he’ll be just fine playing at 285 pounds or whatever he is. But if he’s able to do all of this while carrying baby weight around, imagine what he’ll do once he streamlines his body.)

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DUKE’S DEPTH IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE

Duke had a bunch of injuries on this trip.

I know.

Cam Reddish didn’t play. Tre Jones didn’t play. Alex O’Connell lasted all of three minutes in the first game before fracturing a bone in his face. That’s three of Duke’s top six players heading into next season.

The problem?

Without those three, Duke was forced to start the likes of Jack White, Antonio Vrankovic and Jordan Goldwire in lineups that included both Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden. I expect White will play a larger role this season because, if nothing else, he’s going to be one of the best shooters on the roster and can play a forward spot. Goldwire is fine as a point guard off the bench, I guess, and Vrankovic is big enough and serviceable enough to play emergency minutes.

Those guys are fine for the end of the bench, but the problem that will arise is that “the end of Duke’s bench” looks like it is going to start with the eighth man.

And that’s assuming that Marques Bolden becomes a trusted part of Coach K’s rotation. In the three exhibitions in Canada, Bolden played a total of just 39 minutes, missing all three of his shot attempts without taking a single free throw while grabbing all of nine rebounds.

My guess?

Duke plays the majority of this season with a six-man rotation, using O’Connell off the bench to spell whoever needs a rest and allowing Williamson to play the five when Javin DeLaurier needs a blow.

Depth is something that I think is overrated in college basketball given how many TV timeouts there are during a game. Villanova has won two of the last three national titles despite using rotations that end at seven guys. Syracuse routinely makes runs in March with teams that have just five or six guys that see minutes. It’s great to have 13 players on scholarship that can contribute, but only five of them can see the floor at a time. When your best players are going to get 30-35 minutes a night, having too many guys that deserve to play can lead to discontentment.

So I’m not sure this is going to cripple Duke’s season.

But in a sport where titles are won in one-game knockout tournaments, a poorly-timed sprained ankle or some simple foul trouble can be a killer.

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THIS TEAM IS GOING TO BE SO MUCH FUN TO WATCH

If there is one thing that we can learn from the way that Duke played in Canada, it’s that this team is likely going to play fast, fast, fast.

I’m not sure there will be any player in the college basketball this year that can grab-and-go the way that Barrett and Williamson can, and that’s before you even factor in that Reddish — a silky 6-foot-8 wing — will be able to do the same thing, and that Tre Jones will actually be the point guard on this roster.

Imagine being an opposing point guard and seeing Barrett or Williamson come at you with a full head of steam in transition. That’s nightmare fuel.

This group is also switchable defensively, and I’ve been told that they have already been tinkering with lineups that allow Williamson to play the five, a la the ‘Death Lineup’ that the Golden State Warriors roll out with Draymond Green playing center.

There is a lot to like about this group, but that leads me to my single-biggest concern about this team …

… DUKE IS GOING TO HAVE TO FIND SHOOTING SOMEWHERE

Part of the reason I think Duke is going to be a transition-heavy team is that they have the players to thrive in that kind of a system.

But I also think that it will partly be by necessity, as Duke has a roster that is loaded with perimeter talent without having all that much perimeter shooting.

Put another way, Villanova made small-ball work for them last season because every single player in their top six was a lethal three-point shooter. Golden State makes it work because they have three of the greatest shooters in the history of the sport on the roster.

Barrett? The biggest knock on him as a prospect is that he is an inconsistent shooter, and that was backed up by a 6-for-21 (28%) performance in Canada. The same thing can be said about Williamson, who shot 3-for-9 (33%) from three on the trip, and one of his three makes was a ball that bricked off the back of the rim, hit the backboard and happened to drop in. Reddish and Jones are both guys that can make threes, but they are probably better described as scorers more than shooters.

Throw in someone like a DeLaurier or a Bolden, and suddenly the paint gets awfully clogged.

I currently have Duke sitting at No. 4 in the NBC Sports Preseason Top 25 — behind Kansas, Gonzaga and Kentucky — because of those question marks from beyond the arc.

This trip did nothing to alleviate those concerns.

VIDEO: Duke’s Zion Williamson takes flight in final exhibition win

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Duke played this trip short-handed and against competition that wasn’t exactly overwhelming, but the Blue Devils still looked pretty impressive steam-rolling the teams they did play.

And while I say “the Blue Devils”, I really mean Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett. Barrett is widely considered the better prospect, but Williamson was the one that put on a show all weekend, and today’s game against McGill was no different.