Pregame Shootaround 1.3.13: Pac-12 showdown highlights first Thursday of 2013

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Each day, CollegeBasketballTalk brings you the “Pregame Shootaround,” which will lay out a preview for the slate of games that night. We’ll take a look at some key match-ups and important games, as well as make some predictions and point out what you need to watch for. Take a look below at today’s edition:

Note: The weekend editions of Pregame Shootaround will be published half an hour prior to tip-off of the day’s first game.

Game of the Day: Colorado at No. 3 Arizona (8 PM) 
The Buffaloes and Wildcats met three times last season, with Colorado’s win in the Pac-12 title game punching their ticket to the NCAA tournament and sending Arizona to the NIT. The Wildcats enter this meeting in far better condition across the board, as they have a point guard in Mark Lyons who they can rely on despite the occasional adventures with the basketball and three young big men who are a vast improvement over what the Wildcats had last year.

The key for Brandon Ashley, Grant Jerrett and Kaleb Tarczewski will be to match the energy level of Colorado’s Andre Roberson, who is the conference’s best rebounder and has posted six double-doubles this season. Spencer Dinwiddie is one of the conference’s best perimeter defenders, but it remains to be seen if he draws the assignment of Lyons or Nick Johnson, and Askia Booker can put up points in a hurry if allowed to go off. Arizona’s Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom will figure prominently in Sean Miller’s game plan, and Colorado will need solid performances from both Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott if they’re to leave Tucson with a victory.

Who’s Getting Upset?: No. 2 Michigan (at Northwestern; 7 PM) 
John Shurna’s graduated and Drew Crawford is done for the season, but in recent years Bill Carmody’s program has been good for at least one home victory that few expect them to get. This could be that game, because for as well as the Wolverines have played this season this is only their second road game of the season (Bradley being the first). After scoring nine points in the season opener Northwestern’s Reggie Hearn has reached double figures in 11 straight games, scoring 18 and grabbing seven rebounds in a 70-68 loss to Stanford (Hearn didn’t play against Brown).

He, David Sobolewski and Tre Demps (12.0 ppg, 9-of-12 3PT over his last four games) need to be at their best in order to combat what Michigan’s Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Nik Stauskas bring to the table if the Wildcats are to win. Another key for Northwestern: keeping Michigan off the offensive boards. The Wolverines are grabbing nearly 36% of their misses, and if Northwestern can limit that they can win.

Mid-Major Matchup of the Day: Belmont at Jacksonville State (8 PM) 
The Bruins make their OVC debut and it won’t be easy either, as the Gamecocks enter with a 2-0 conference record  and have won seven of their last eight games. But there is the strength of schedule factor to address, as Rick Byrd’s team has been tested by teams such as Stanford, Middle Tennessee (Belmont won those), VCU and Kansas. Jacksonville State’s toughest opponent was Oregon, and overall their strength of schedule ranking is down in the 300’s. Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson are one of the better backcourts in college basketball much less the OVC, and if Jacksonville State can’t slow those two down it’s going to be a long night for the home team.

Five Things

1) On Friday it was UCLA that needed a solid victory and the Bruins came through, beating Missouri 97-94 in overtime. Ben Howland’s team opens conference play against a California team that lost to Harvard last week, and with a DirecTV Classic title that doesn’t look all that impressive at this point (they beat Georgia Tech in the semis, but Saint Mary’s losing to Pacific robbed Cal of a marquee matchup in the title game) Mike Montgomery’s team could use a good resume-builder. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs are averaging 37.3 points per game, but given how much attention they’ll draw Richard Solomon needs to step up.

2) Wisconsin looks to win its Big Ten opener for the 10th consecutive season tonight as they host Penn State. Patrick Chambers’ team has won four straight since being blown out by La Salle, but having to navigate conference play without their best player (Tim Frazier) will prove difficult for Penn State.

3) Canisius puts its 2-0 MAAC record on the line as they host Fairfield, who has won five straight (including a win at Saint Joseph’s). The individual matchup between the Golden Griffins’ Billy Baron and Fairfield’s Derek Needham will be worth the cost of admission.

4) Arkansas State looks to separate itself in the West Division of the Sun Belt tonight, but to do so they’ll have to beat a Middle Tennessee squad that’s one of two undefeated teams in the East. Both teams are good when it comes to offensive rebounding but the Blue Raiders are one of the nation’s best when it comes to defending the three. Opponents are shooting just 27.5% from beyond the arc, and Middle Tennessee’s perimeter defenders will be paying close attention to Edward Townsel (16.2 ppg, 40% 3PT).

5) How good is 8-5 Pepperdine? We’ll find out tonight as they host No. 10 Gonzaga in the WCC opener for both. Marty Wilson’s Waves have been a pleasant surprise to this point in the season with senior guard Lorne Jackson and freshman forward Stacy Davis leading the way, but the Bulldogs are an entirely different animal when compared to the teams Pepperdine has played to this point.

The Top 25 

No. 2 Michigan at Northwestern (7 PM)

Colorado at No. 3 Arizona (8 PM)

No. 10 Gonzaga at Pepperdine (9 PM)

Other Notable Games

Northeastern at George Mason (7 PM; NBC Sports Network)

Fairfield at Canisius (7 PM)

Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State (8:05 PM)

Penn State at Wisconsin (8:30 PM)

Loyola Marymount at BYU (9 PM)

California at UCLA (11 PM)

Raphielle also writes for the NBE Basketball Report and can be followed on Twitter at @raphiellej.

Sunday’s NCAA tournament recap: Duke and Tennessee survive, chalk thrives

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PLAYER OF THE DAY: Zion Williamson, Duke

On a night where Duke looked like they were ready to see their season come to an end, Zion Williamson made just enough plays to keep the Blue Devils close enough to get lucky at the end.

The big fella finished with 32 points, 11 boards and four assists in the 77-76 Sunday evening win, scoring the and-one with 14 seconds left that led to the offensive rebound that R.J. Barrett’s game-winning put-back. This was anything-but a quintessential Duke performance. It was actually precisely the kind of game that Duke should have lost, but I’ll get to that at the bottom of this column.

TEAM OF THE DAY: Oregon Ducks

Payton Pritchard finished with 18 points and seven assists, the Ducks made 13 threes and, over the course of the final 12 minutes of the game, outscored UC Irvine 38-17 en route to a 73-54 win and a spot in the Sweet 16. The Ducks are the only team to make it to the second weekend of the tournament as anything other than a top five seed, but there’s an argument to make that they are actually a top 16 team at this point in the season. They’ve now won 10 straight games, and the last eight of them have come on the road or on neutral courts. It’s been a wild ride, and it’s not done yet.

GAME OF THE DAY: Duke 77, UCF 76

It was a thriller in Columbia, S.C., on Sunday night, one that we wrote about here and here (and down at the bottom of this column) and that ended like this:

ONIONS OF THE DAY: Grant Williams, Tennessee

Tennessee was getting ready to make history on Sunday, and not in a good way. The Volunteers blew a 25 point first half lead to Iowa, getting to overtime where Williams absolutely took over. Tennessee used a 9-2 run to take control in the extra frame, and Williams was responsible for all nine points. He scored three straight buckets and found Jordan Bone for a three in the mix, too.

I guess there’s a reason he’s an all-american.

WTF OF THE DAY: Admiral Schofield, Tennessee

During that overtime period, Admiral Schofield was on the bench. He was on the bench at the end of regulation, too. He didn’t foul out. Rick Barnes wasn’t drunk. Schofield knew that the Vols needed Kyle Alexander on the floor, and so did his teammates. So Alexander stayed on the floor and Schofield stayed on the bench and, as a result, Tennessee stayed in the NCAA tournament.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech

Buzz Williams must be happy to have his point guard back. Justin Robinson finished with 13 points and four assists off the bench, but 10 of those 13 points and all four of those assists came after No. 12-seed Liberty had taken a 26-18 lead on Virginia Tech late in the first half of the second round tilt in San Jose. He sparked an 18-6 surge that spanned both halves and had a pair of assists in another 11-3 run early in the second half as the Hokies landed a come-from-behind, 67-58 win over the upset-minded Flames.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Buffalo Bulls

The game that I was most excited about heading into Sunday was Texas Tech vs. Buffalo, and that’s because I thought that the Bulls would at least put up a fight. They didn’t. After staying within striking distance for more of the first half, the Red Raiders buried Buffalo down the stretch.

ONE MORE THING TO KNOW

This was the one.

This was the game that Duke was supposed to lose in this tournament.

This matchup had all the elements necessary to make it happen.

For starters, UCF has the roster makeup to be able to hang with Duke. They have size, they have depth, they have athleticism and they have the one guy in college basketball that can make Zion Williamson an inefficient finisher around the basket in Tacko Fall. They played precisely the way that you need to play to be able to beat these Blue Devils, by packing everyone in the paint, daring Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire to beat you from the perimeter and parking a shot-blocker directly in front of the rim. And they did all that while one of their shot-making wings went bonkers. Aubrey Dawkins finished with 32 points on 12-for-18 shooting, making tough shot after tough shot to give the Knights a shot to win this thing in the final minutes.

Throw in the good fortune from the basketball gods — specifically, a couple of no-calls on Fall and the shot clock violation that wasn’t in the final minutes — and it was all coming together.

Duke was going to lose.

And then that shot happened, this didn’t fall and UCF was heading home:

One of the things that I kept seeing after the end of this game is that this is evidence that Duke is not invincible, which I just don’t understand.

This is something that we have known all season long. Duke struggles to shoot the ball, particularly at the point and the five, and good teams are capable of exploiting that. They pack in the paint, they do their damnedest to avoid turnovers that allow Duke to get out in transition and they hope that all of this happens on a night when their star plays like a star.

That’s how you beat Duke.

That’s the blueprint.

UCF had all the tools they needed, and luck just didn’t break their way.

It’s not different than the end of last year’s Elite 8 game, when Duke was on the other end of the luck spectrum.

That’s when Grayson Allen’s game-winner rolled off the rim, just like Dawkins’ did on Sunday night:

Just how different would the narratives be for these two Duke teams had both of these shots fallen?

Top overall seed Duke survives No. 9 UCF’s upset bid

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Two days removed from the first NCAA tournament victory in program history, East Region No. 9 UCF had two shots at knocking off top overall seed Duke Sunday in Columbia, South Carolina. But B.J. Taylor’s floater and Aubrey Dawkins’ attempted tip-in both missed the mark in the final seconds, and as a result the Blue Devils pulled out the 77-76 victory.

UCF took a 76-73 lead with 45 seconds remaining, but the failure to cap a key defensive possession with a rebound proved costly. Zion Williamson’s offensive rebound led to a basket and Tacko Fall’s fifth foul with just over 14 seconds to go. RJ Barrett would corral the resulting missed free throw, and his put-back with 11.4 seconds remaining proved to be the game-winning basket.

Williamson finished with 32 points, 11 rebounds and four assists, leading four double-digit scorers on the day. And even with the freshman’s offensive mastery Duke nearly saw its season come to an end, as UCF defended well and also shot the ball well on the other end of the floor.

UCF used multiple looks on defense, from man-to-man to a standard 2-3 zone to a matchup that purposely left Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire open. Jones and Goldwire (combined 2-for-11 from three Sunday) would both make a three-pointer in the second half, but neither was proficient enough to punish UCF for this approach.

This proved especially problematic for Duke when Cam Reddish was on the bench with four fouls, as the Blue Devils turned to a backcourt tandem that is the team’s best defensively but struggles mightily to shoot the ball.

Reddish (3-for-4; including a huge three with 1:45 remaining) and Barrett (2-for-3) combined to shoot 5-for-7 from three on the day, with Williamson making three of his seven attempts. While future opponents won’t be able to replicate the size that UCF has in Fall, teams can certainly pack it in defensively and force Duke’s non-shooters to prove that they can hit those shots. Johnny Dawkins’ team nearly made Duke pay the price, but two offensive rebounds in the final 30 seconds cost the Knights.

Offensively UCF was proficient, making 48.1 percent of its shots from the field and shooting 9-for-18 from three, with Aubrey Dawkins leading the way. In scoring his 32 points Dawkins shot 12-for-18 from the field (5-for-8 from three), and he also accounted for four assists, three rebounds and three steals. Taylor and Fall added 15 points apiece, with the latter also racking up six rebounds and three blocked shots.

UCF may have revealed the “blueprint” to beating Duke, but it isn’t as simple as allowing them to put up perimeter shots. Knowing the personnel is especially key, as the Knights did a good job of funneling those shots to players Duke would be better served not having shoot. And even with that blueprint UCF was unable to take full advantage itself, which is why Duke is moving on.

“Survive and advance” is the preferred saying this time of year, and Duke managed to do just that.

No. 12 Oregon locks up third Sweet 16 in four seasons

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South Region No. 12 Oregon appeared to be in some trouble during the second half of Sunday’s second round matchup with No. 13 UC Irvine. Dana Altman’s team went more than seven minutes without scoring a point, with the Anteaters going on a 16-0 run to take a two-point lead. But Oregon regained its composure and shooting ability, going on to win by the final score of 73-54.

Payton Pritchard led four double-digit scorers with 18 points while also dishing out seven assists, with Louis King adding 16. The two other double-digit scorers were just as impactful on the defensive end of the floor, as Ehab Amin and Kenny Wooten changed the tenor of the game after UC Irvine’s 16-0 run.

Amin was a pest on the perimeter, racking up three steals to go along with 12 points, five rebounds, and two assists. And if any UC Irvine player managed to get into the paint more often than not Kenny Wooten was waiting, as he blocked seven shots and changed many others. He was a finisher around the basket as well, adding 12 points and nine rebounds to his stat line.

Robert Cartwright led three UC Irvine players in double figures with 14 points, but Russell Turner’s team shot just 5-for-18 from three and the 24-point differential (Oregon finished 13-for-25) was too much for the Big West champions to overcome.

This is the third time in the last four years that the program has managed to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. But unlike those runs, an Elite Eight appearance as a 1-seed in 2016 and a Final Four as a 3-seed in 2017, this run has been more about a team getting hot at the right time.

Oregon lost Bol Bol in mid-December to a season-ending foot injury, and even though the Ducks won their first two games without the talented freshman it was obvious that things weren’t right. Oregon lost four of its first six conference games, and in February there was a three-game skid capped by a 90-83 loss at UCLA in which the Bruins scored 62 second-half points.

Since then the Ducks have been outstanding on the defensive end of the floor, allowing 60 points or less in eight of their ten wins. There’s still offensive talent on the roster, but without Bol Oregon had to buckle down defensively in order to have any chance of making good on the preseason expectations. It took some time but the Ducks eventually got things right, and the end result is a run that few imagined possible a month ago.

Next up for Oregon will be top-seed Virginia, a program well-known for its work on the defensive end of the floor. This will undoubtedly be a challenge for the Ducks, but thanks to the improved defense they’re more than capable of continuing this run.

Houston reaches first Sweet 16 in 35 years with in over Ohio State

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It may not be Phi Slamma Jamma, but Kelvin Sampson has something special brewing with his iteration of the Houston Cougars.

Behind 21 points from Corey Davis Jr. and 13 points, five assists and five steals from Galen Robinson, the No. 3-seed Houston Cougars advanced to the program’s first Sweet 16 in 35 years with a 74-59 win over the 11th-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday evening.

Houston will advance to take on No. 2-seed Kentucky.

The names that you read there, the leading scorers and the players that will go down in the recaps as the stars of the game, are Houston’s guards. They have a bunch of them. Davis is the best of the bunch and Robinson has been a rock solid lead guard all year, but Armoni Brooks and Dejon Jarreau – neither of whom were particularly great on Sunday – are both capable of popping off for big games on the right night.

In fact, the top five scorers on the Houston roster are all perimeter players.

But they are heading to the Sweet 16 thanks in very large part to their very large men.

Ohio State’s strength is that they have Kaleb Wesson. He’s their leading scorer, their leading rebounder, one of their best passers and the guy that Chris Holtmann runs his offense through. He finished with 15 points, six boards and a pair of assists — his average on the season — but he was no where near as effective as we have come to expect out of the all-Big Ten center. To get a sense of just how in check he was, think about this: Wesson attempted just a single two point field goal on the night. Kelvin Sampson’s crew double-teamed him to perfection, with Breaon Brady, Fabian White and Brison Gresham doing everything that you can ask of them.

They are going to need that heading into the next round, as they will take on a Kentucky team that may or may not be getting P.J. Washington back from the foot injury that has kept him out since the SEC tournament.

Whatever happens in the Sweet 16 is besides the point by now.

Houston is back in the Sweet 16.

Everything from here on out is playing with house money.

WATCH: Johnny Dawkins addresses locker room after loss to Duke

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East Region No. 9 UCF nearly pulled off the upset of this year’s NCAA tournament, but two shot attempts in the final seconds missed the mark in the Knights’ 77-76 loss to top-seed Duke.

Following the game head coach Johnny Dawkins addressed the locker room, thanking his senior class and the team as a whole.

While the NCAA tournament is about determining a champion, it’s moments like this that make the event so special.